Manhattan
Metro Atlantic Athletic
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-5.5#263
Expected Predictive Rating-5.0#250
Pace69.6#134
Improvement+2.9#67

Offense
Total Offense+0.2#168
First Shot+2.5#106
After Offensive Rebound-2.3#312
Layup/Dunks-2.5#275
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.8#124
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.2#56
Freethrows+0.0#174
Improvement+1.2#120

Defense
Total Defense-5.6#330
First Shot-1.8#231
After Offensive Rebounds-3.9#362
Layups/Dunks-3.7#309
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.3#228
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.1#94
Freethrows+0.1#182
Improvement+1.7#90
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 6.9% 9.0% 5.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.8 15.7 15.9
.500 or above 78.9% 91.5% 68.2%
.500 or above in Conference 87.7% 97.2% 79.7%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four3.2% 3.6% 3.0%
First Round5.3% 7.2% 3.6%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Quinnipiac (Home) - 45.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 10 - 2
Quad 30 - 30 - 5
Quad 415 - 916 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 13   @ Maryland L 49-79 2%     0 - 1 -9.5 -14.9 +6.1
  Nov 15, 2024 204   Fordham W 78-76 48%     1 - 1 -2.9 -3.1 +0.0
  Nov 17, 2024 318   @ Fairleigh Dickinson L 82-85 55%     1 - 2 -9.7 +8.7 -18.5
  Nov 22, 2024 287   Army W 80-79 65%     2 - 2 -8.5 +0.3 -8.9
  Nov 26, 2024 93   @ Virginia L 65-74 11%     2 - 3 -1.3 +3.9 -6.4
  Nov 29, 2024 357   Le Moyne L 77-81 85%     2 - 4 -20.4 -10.5 -9.7
  Dec 06, 2024 292   @ St. Peter's W 70-67 47%     3 - 4 1 - 0 -1.6 +0.5 -2.0
  Dec 08, 2024 223   Marist L 75-82 51%     3 - 5 1 - 1 -12.8 +4.7 -17.8
  Dec 18, 2024 347   @ Wagner W 80-66 67%     4 - 5 +3.9 +13.5 -8.1
  Dec 21, 2024 270   @ Presbyterian W 86-81 OT 41%     5 - 5 +1.8 +6.7 -5.1
  Jan 03, 2025 228   @ Siena L 95-103 2OT 33%     5 - 6 1 - 2 -9.1 +2.9 -10.3
  Jan 05, 2025 313   @ Rider W 80-79 54%     6 - 6 2 - 2 -5.5 +6.2 -11.7
  Jan 10, 2025 258   Mount St. Mary's L 66-75 59%     6 - 7 2 - 3 -16.9 -5.2 -12.2
  Jan 12, 2025 214   @ Merrimack L 62-69 30%     6 - 8 2 - 4 -7.1 -0.9 -6.9
  Jan 18, 2025 319   Niagara W 72-65 73%     7 - 8 3 - 4 -4.8 +4.8 -8.4
  Jan 23, 2025 328   Fairfield L 84-87 OT 76%     7 - 9 3 - 5 -15.8 +0.6 -16.2
  Jan 25, 2025 258   @ Mount St. Mary's W 74-64 40%     8 - 9 4 - 5 +7.2 +7.1 +0.9
  Jan 31, 2025 259   Iona W 76-55 59%     9 - 9 5 - 5 +13.1 +8.0 +6.5
  Feb 02, 2025 274   @ Sacred Heart L 72-74 43%     9 - 10 5 - 6 -5.8 -9.8 +4.1
  Feb 08, 2025 292   St. Peter's W 84-83 OT 66%     10 - 10 6 - 6 -8.7 +11.2 -19.9
  Feb 14, 2025 214   Merrimack W 79-75 49%     11 - 10 7 - 6 -1.2 +12.4 -13.4
  Feb 16, 2025 328   @ Fairfield W 80-67 59%     12 - 10 8 - 6 +5.3 +8.5 -2.3
  Feb 21, 2025 259   @ Iona L 60-65 40%     12 - 11 8 - 7 -7.8 -8.5 +0.5
  Feb 23, 2025 189   Quinnipiac L 78-79 46%    
  Feb 28, 2025 354   @ Canisius W 80-74 68%    
  Mar 02, 2025 319   @ Niagara W 74-73 53%    
  Mar 06, 2025 274   Sacred Heart W 82-79 64%    
  Mar 08, 2025 228   Siena W 74-73 54%    
Projected Record 15 - 13 11 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Metro Atlantic Athletic Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 0.5 2nd
3rd 0.1 3.0 4.4 7.4 3rd
4th 0.0 4.8 14.1 2.2 21.2 4th
5th 1.1 14.0 5.7 0.0 20.8 5th
6th 0.1 7.1 11.7 0.4 19.3 6th
7th 2.0 12.2 1.7 15.9 7th
8th 0.9 8.1 4.7 0.1 13.8 8th
9th 0.7 0.3 1.0 9th
10th 0.1 0.1 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
Total 1.7 10.6 25.1 32.3 23.2 7.1 Total



Metro Atlantic Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7 7.1% 13.7% 13.7% 15.2 0.1 0.6 0.3 6.1
12-8 23.2% 10.3% 10.3% 15.8 0.0 0.4 2.0 20.8
11-9 32.3% 6.6% 6.6% 15.9 0.2 1.9 30.2
10-10 25.1% 4.3% 4.3% 16.0 0.0 1.0 24.0
9-11 10.6% 3.1% 3.1% 16.0 0.3 10.3
8-12 1.7% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.0 1.7
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 6.9% 6.9% 0.0% 15.8 0.1 1.3 5.5 93.1 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.0% 100.0% 15.2 9.3 64.9 25.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 1.0%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.7%
Lose Out 0.9%