Manhattan
Metro Atlantic Athletic
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-9.5#328
Expected Predictive Rating-6.3#275
Pace69.8#163
Improvement-0.4#231

Offense
Total Offense-4.6#307
First Shot-2.7#255
After Offensive Rebound-1.9#285
Layup/Dunks-3.7#297
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.2#183
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.2#177
Freethrows+1.0#140
Improvement+0.9#61

Defense
Total Defense-4.9#324
First Shot-2.6#263
After Offensive Rebounds-2.3#306
Layups/Dunks-3.6#290
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.7#157
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.8#243
Freethrows+2.0#81
Improvement-1.3#327
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.7% 2.1% 1.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.7 15.6 15.9
.500 or above 17.9% 25.1% 9.6%
.500 or above in Conference 27.4% 33.1% 20.9%
Conference Champion 1.4% 1.8% 0.8%
Last Place in Conference 17.7% 13.9% 22.1%
First Four0.9% 1.0% 0.8%
First Round1.2% 1.6% 0.8%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Army (Home) - 53.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 10 - 2
Quad 31 - 41 - 7
Quad 410 - 1211 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 30   @ Maryland L 49-79 2%     0 - 1 -14.1 -15.3 +1.9
  Nov 15, 2024 161   Fordham W 78-76 27%     1 - 1 -1.2 +0.3 -1.7
  Nov 17, 2024 342   @ Fairleigh Dickinson L 82-85 48%     1 - 2 -12.1 +3.7 -15.8
  Nov 22, 2024 303   Army W 67-66 54%    
  Nov 26, 2024 58   @ Virginia L 51-73 2%    
  Nov 29, 2024 336   Le Moyne W 74-70 65%    
  Dec 06, 2024 178   @ St. Peter's L 60-72 14%    
  Dec 08, 2024 234   Marist L 68-71 40%    
  Dec 18, 2024 280   @ Wagner L 58-64 28%    
  Dec 21, 2024 281   @ Presbyterian L 70-76 28%    
  Jan 03, 2025 306   @ Siena L 66-71 34%    
  Jan 05, 2025 240   @ Rider L 68-77 22%    
  Jan 10, 2025 260   Mount St. Mary's L 72-73 45%    
  Jan 12, 2025 230   @ Merrimack L 63-72 21%    
  Jan 18, 2025 327   Niagara W 74-71 60%    
  Jan 23, 2025 274   Fairfield L 70-71 48%    
  Jan 25, 2025 260   @ Mount St. Mary's L 69-76 26%    
  Jan 31, 2025 217   Iona L 70-74 37%    
  Feb 02, 2025 331   @ Sacred Heart L 75-77 43%    
  Feb 08, 2025 178   St. Peter's L 63-69 31%    
  Feb 14, 2025 230   Merrimack L 66-69 39%    
  Feb 16, 2025 274   @ Fairfield L 67-74 28%    
  Feb 21, 2025 217   @ Iona L 67-77 20%    
  Feb 23, 2025 224   Quinnipiac L 73-76 38%    
  Feb 28, 2025 351   @ Canisius W 73-72 52%    
  Mar 02, 2025 327   @ Niagara L 71-74 39%    
  Mar 06, 2025 331   Sacred Heart W 78-74 64%    
  Mar 08, 2025 306   Siena W 69-68 55%    
Projected Record 10 - 18 8 - 12




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Metro Atlantic Athletic Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 1.4 1st
2nd 0.1 0.7 1.0 0.5 0.2 0.0 2.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.4 0.6 0.1 0.0 3.3 3rd
4th 0.1 1.1 1.9 1.0 0.1 0.0 4.3 4th
5th 0.1 1.0 2.5 1.5 0.3 0.0 5.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.9 2.8 2.3 0.3 0.0 6.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.7 2.9 3.2 0.7 0.0 7.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.7 3.2 4.1 1.2 0.1 9.2 8th
9th 0.1 0.6 3.1 4.7 1.7 0.1 0.0 10.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.8 3.2 5.2 2.5 0.3 0.0 12.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 1.1 3.7 5.0 2.5 0.3 0.0 12.8 11th
12th 0.1 0.5 1.9 4.3 4.4 2.2 0.4 0.0 13.7 12th
13th 0.3 1.1 2.7 3.3 2.6 1.0 0.2 0.0 11.2 13th
Total 0.3 1.2 3.1 5.3 8.0 10.0 11.3 11.9 11.5 10.0 8.5 6.9 4.8 3.3 2.0 1.1 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Metro Atlantic Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
19-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
18-2 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-3 90.5% 0.2    0.1 0.1
16-4 64.1% 0.3    0.2 0.1 0.0
15-5 38.3% 0.4    0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
14-6 13.0% 0.3    0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
13-7 1.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.2% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 1.4% 1.4 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0
19-1 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
18-2 0.1% 32.4% 32.4% 13.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
17-3 0.2% 28.6% 28.6% 14.5 0.0 0.0 0.2
16-4 0.5% 17.7% 17.7% 14.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4
15-5 1.1% 14.3% 14.3% 15.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.9
14-6 2.0% 12.6% 12.6% 15.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 1.8
13-7 3.3% 7.3% 7.3% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.2 3.1
12-8 4.8% 5.7% 5.7% 16.0 0.0 0.3 4.5
11-9 6.9% 2.9% 2.9% 16.0 0.2 6.7
10-10 8.5% 1.5% 1.5% 16.0 0.0 0.1 8.4
9-11 10.0% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.0 0.1 9.8
8-12 11.5% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.1 11.5
7-13 11.9% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 11.8
6-14 11.3% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 11.3
5-15 10.0% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 10.0
4-16 8.0% 8.0
3-17 5.3% 5.3
2-18 3.1% 3.1
1-19 1.2% 1.2
0-20 0.3% 0.3
Total 100% 1.7% 1.7% 0.0% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.3 98.3 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%