Manhattan
Metro Atlantic Athletic
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-7.1#293
Expected Predictive Rating-5.1#251
Pace71.1#119
Improvement+0.8#130

Offense
Total Offense-1.1#203
First Shot+0.9#152
After Offensive Rebound-2.1#291
Layup/Dunks-1.6#240
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.0#161
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.5#76
Freethrows-1.0#245
Improvement+2.3#38

Defense
Total Defense-6.0#347
First Shot-2.4#258
After Offensive Rebounds-3.5#354
Layups/Dunks-5.1#342
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.7#256
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.5#83
Freethrows+0.8#132
Improvement-1.5#298
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 4.2% 5.4% 3.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.7 15.6 15.8
.500 or above 35.0% 51.3% 27.7%
.500 or above in Conference 48.4% 56.8% 44.7%
Conference Champion 3.8% 5.1% 3.2%
Last Place in Conference 6.8% 4.5% 7.8%
First Four2.0% 2.3% 1.9%
First Round3.1% 4.2% 2.7%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Presbyterian (Away) - 31.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 10 - 2
Quad 32 - 32 - 5
Quad 411 - 1113 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 19   @ Maryland L 49-79 2%     0 - 1 -11.9 -15.3 +4.1
  Nov 15, 2024 169   Fordham W 78-76 37%     1 - 1 -1.6 -0.7 -1.1
  Nov 17, 2024 334   @ Fairleigh Dickinson L 82-85 51%     1 - 2 -10.2 +4.7 -15.0
  Nov 22, 2024 299   Army W 80-79 62%     2 - 2 -9.4 -0.3 -9.1
  Nov 26, 2024 90   @ Virginia L 65-74 7%     2 - 3 +0.2 +9.0 -9.9
  Nov 29, 2024 332   Le Moyne L 77-81 72%     2 - 4 -17.2 -6.0 -10.9
  Dec 06, 2024 210   @ St. Peter's W 70-67 23%     3 - 4 1 - 0 +3.7 +1.0 +2.8
  Dec 08, 2024 233   Marist L 75-82 49%     3 - 5 1 - 1 -13.7 +2.7 -16.7
  Dec 18, 2024 309   @ Wagner W 80-66 43%     4 - 5 +8.8 +17.9 -7.7
  Dec 21, 2024 250   @ Presbyterian L 72-77 31%    
  Jan 03, 2025 305   @ Siena L 70-72 41%    
  Jan 05, 2025 300   @ Rider L 71-74 40%    
  Jan 10, 2025 253   Mount St. Mary's W 77-76 54%    
  Jan 12, 2025 198   @ Merrimack L 67-75 21%    
  Jan 18, 2025 320   Niagara W 75-70 67%    
  Jan 23, 2025 280   Fairfield W 78-75 59%    
  Jan 25, 2025 253   @ Mount St. Mary's L 74-79 33%    
  Jan 31, 2025 258   Iona W 75-74 54%    
  Feb 02, 2025 284   @ Sacred Heart L 77-80 38%    
  Feb 08, 2025 210   St. Peter's L 68-70 44%    
  Feb 14, 2025 198   Merrimack L 70-72 41%    
  Feb 16, 2025 280   @ Fairfield L 75-78 37%    
  Feb 21, 2025 258   @ Iona L 72-77 33%    
  Feb 23, 2025 245   Quinnipiac W 78-77 53%    
  Feb 28, 2025 350   @ Canisius W 77-75 58%    
  Mar 02, 2025 320   @ Niagara L 72-73 46%    
  Mar 06, 2025 284   Sacred Heart W 80-77 59%    
  Mar 08, 2025 305   Siena W 73-69 63%    
Projected Record 13 - 15 9 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Metro Atlantic Athletic Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 1.0 1.2 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0 3.8 1st
2nd 0.0 0.7 2.0 2.2 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0 5.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 2.7 2.8 1.0 0.1 0.0 7.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 2.5 3.8 1.2 0.1 0.0 7.9 4th
5th 0.1 2.0 4.8 2.0 0.2 9.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.9 4.8 2.9 0.2 8.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 3.8 4.3 0.7 0.0 9.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 2.5 5.3 1.6 0.1 9.7 8th
9th 0.1 1.5 4.8 2.8 0.2 0.0 9.4 9th
10th 0.1 1.1 3.8 3.6 0.5 0.0 9.1 10th
11th 0.1 1.0 3.4 3.6 0.9 0.0 9.0 11th
12th 0.0 0.3 1.2 2.6 2.4 0.9 0.1 7.5 12th
13th 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.1 0.9 0.4 0.0 3.5 13th
Total 0.1 0.3 0.9 2.5 4.6 7.4 10.1 12.3 13.4 13.2 11.4 9.4 6.5 4.2 2.1 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 Total



Metro Atlantic Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
18-2 96.7% 0.1    0.1 0.0
17-3 94.2% 0.4    0.3 0.0 0.0
16-4 79.7% 0.8    0.6 0.2 0.0
15-5 55.2% 1.2    0.6 0.5 0.1 0.0
14-6 22.6% 1.0    0.2 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0
13-7 5.4% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 3.8% 3.8 1.8 1.3 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1 0.0% 0.0 0.0
18-2 0.1% 31.1% 31.1% 13.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
17-3 0.4% 22.8% 22.8% 14.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3
16-4 1.0% 19.7% 19.7% 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.8
15-5 2.1% 18.1% 18.1% 15.3 0.0 0.2 0.1 1.8
14-6 4.2% 15.1% 15.1% 15.7 0.0 0.2 0.4 3.6
13-7 6.5% 10.9% 10.9% 15.8 0.0 0.1 0.6 5.8
12-8 9.4% 7.6% 7.6% 15.9 0.0 0.1 0.6 8.7
11-9 11.4% 5.0% 5.0% 15.9 0.0 0.5 10.9
10-10 13.2% 3.2% 3.2% 16.0 0.0 0.4 12.8
9-11 13.4% 1.5% 1.5% 16.0 0.2 13.2
8-12 12.3% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.2 12.1
7-13 10.1% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 10.0
6-14 7.4% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 7.3
5-15 4.6% 4.6
4-16 2.5% 2.5
3-17 0.9% 0.9
2-18 0.3% 0.3
1-19 0.1% 0.1
0-20
Total 100% 4.2% 4.2% 0.0% 15.7 0.0 0.2 0.8 3.2 95.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.0%