Fairleigh Dickinson
Northeast
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-12.7#348
Expected Predictive Rating-8.8#294
Pace78.5#24
Improvement+1.4#61

Offense
Total Offense-4.0#288
First Shot-2.1#244
After Offensive Rebound-2.0#279
Layup/Dunks+0.6#155
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.5#258
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.7#201
Freethrows-0.4#210
Improvement+0.8#81

Defense
Total Defense-8.7#363
First Shot-6.2#342
After Offensive Rebounds-2.5#318
Layups/Dunks-7.5#354
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.1#302
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.6#159
Freethrows+2.8#46
Improvement+0.6#97
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 4.9% 6.9% 4.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 5.6% 12.3% 3.9%
.500 or above in Conference 39.8% 50.1% 37.1%
Conference Champion 4.7% 6.6% 4.2%
Last Place in Conference 19.3% 13.0% 20.9%
First Four4.8% 6.7% 4.3%
First Round1.6% 2.6% 1.4%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: St. Peter's (Home) - 20.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 20 - 30 - 6
Quad 30 - 30 - 9
Quad 49 - 119 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 49   @ Miami (FL) L 72-113 2%     0 - 1 -28.3 -2.2 -23.7
  Nov 10, 2024 16   @ Creighton L 70-96 1%     0 - 2 -8.7 -2.7 -3.2
  Nov 13, 2024 64   @ Nebraska L 60-86 2%     0 - 3 -14.6 -8.2 -5.6
  Nov 17, 2024 329   Manhattan W 85-82 49%     1 - 3 -9.6 +7.2 -16.7
  Nov 20, 2024 294   @ Army L 70-84 20%     1 - 4 -18.0 -5.6 -12.0
  Nov 26, 2024 180   St. Peter's L 67-76 20%    
  Dec 01, 2024 274   Fairfield L 75-79 35%    
  Dec 04, 2024 163   @ Fordham L 71-87 8%    
  Dec 11, 2024 71   @ Villanova L 66-90 1%    
  Dec 18, 2024 130   @ La Salle L 70-88 5%    
  Dec 21, 2024 94   @ Minnesota L 61-83 2%    
  Dec 28, 2024 138   @ Boston College L 69-86 6%    
  Jan 05, 2025 280   @ Wagner L 62-72 19%    
  Jan 10, 2025 337   @ Le Moyne L 76-81 33%    
  Jan 12, 2025 343   St. Francis (PA) W 80-78 59%    
  Jan 18, 2025 286   Central Connecticut St. L 73-76 38%    
  Jan 20, 2025 350   @ Chicago St. L 79-82 41%    
  Jan 26, 2025 339   @ Stonehill L 74-79 33%    
  Jan 30, 2025 337   Le Moyne W 79-78 52%    
  Feb 01, 2025 359   Mercyhurst W 75-70 66%    
  Feb 06, 2025 286   @ Central Connecticut St. L 70-79 20%    
  Feb 08, 2025 280   Wagner L 65-69 37%    
  Feb 13, 2025 350   Chicago St. W 82-79 61%    
  Feb 15, 2025 338   @ LIU Brooklyn L 79-84 35%    
  Feb 20, 2025 359   @ Mercyhurst L 72-73 45%    
  Feb 22, 2025 343   @ St. Francis (PA) L 77-81 37%    
  Feb 27, 2025 339   Stonehill W 77-76 55%    
  Mar 01, 2025 338   LIU Brooklyn W 82-81 54%    
Projected Record 9 - 19 7 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Northeast Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 1.3 1.5 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0 4.7 1st
2nd 0.1 0.8 2.7 2.7 1.2 0.1 7.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.3 4.1 3.6 0.9 0.1 10.0 3rd
4th 0.0 1.1 5.6 4.0 0.9 0.0 11.7 4th
5th 0.1 1.1 5.6 4.9 1.0 0.0 12.7 5th
6th 0.0 1.2 5.1 5.8 1.0 0.0 13.1 6th
7th 0.2 1.5 5.4 5.6 1.5 0.1 14.2 7th
8th 0.3 1.6 5.2 5.1 1.4 0.1 13.7 8th
9th 0.1 1.1 2.9 4.3 2.9 0.9 0.0 12.3 9th
Total 0.1 1.1 3.2 6.0 9.7 12.7 13.2 14.1 12.9 9.9 7.5 4.9 2.8 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 Total



Northeast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
15-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1
14-2 100.0% 0.4    0.4 0.0
13-3 89.3% 0.9    0.7 0.2
12-4 52.6% 1.5    0.8 0.6 0.1 0.0
11-5 26.6% 1.3    0.4 0.6 0.3 0.0
10-6 5.2% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
9-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0
8-8 0.0%
Total 4.7% 4.7 2.5 1.6 0.5 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 0.0% 0.0
15-1 0.1% 42.3% 42.3% 16.0 0.1 0.1
14-2 0.4% 25.9% 25.9% 16.0 0.1 0.3
13-3 1.0% 15.3% 15.3% 16.0 0.2 0.9
12-4 2.8% 18.7% 18.7% 16.0 0.5 2.3
11-5 4.9% 10.9% 10.9% 16.0 0.5 4.4
10-6 7.5% 12.5% 12.5% 16.0 0.9 6.6
9-7 9.9% 8.5% 8.5% 16.0 0.8 9.1
8-8 12.9% 5.4% 5.4% 16.0 0.7 12.2
7-9 14.1% 4.4% 4.4% 16.0 0.6 13.5
6-10 13.2% 1.9% 1.9% 16.0 0.2 12.9
5-11 12.7% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.1 12.5
4-12 9.7% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 9.7
3-13 6.0% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 6.0
2-14 3.2% 3.2
1-15 1.1% 1.1
0-16 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 4.9% 4.9% 0.0% 16.0 4.9 95.1 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%