Northeast
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
229 Central Connecticut St. 41.5%   16   10 - 6 3 - 2 18 - 9 11 - 5 -3.9      -5.4 316 +1.5 130 63.8 304 -0.8 185 -8.5 3
314 LIU Brooklyn 15.3%   8 - 11 6 - 0 14 - 15 12 - 4 -8.7      -7.9 348 -0.8 199 65.8 247 -7.6 294 +6.9 1
316 Stonehill 13.6%   8 - 10 2 - 3 14 - 15 8 - 8 -8.9      -4.4 292 -4.6 309 64.7 274 -7.2 281 -12.8 5
325 Fairleigh Dickinson 10.3%   4 - 13 3 - 2 10 - 18 9 - 7 -9.9      -4.7 298 -5.2 328 74.1 55 -11.1 328 -8.0 2
338 Wagner 5.9%   6 - 8 2 - 3 11 - 14 7 - 9 -11.5      -9.9 360 -1.6 222 57.0 362 -10.0 320 -16.1 9
344 St. Francis (PA) 5.5%   4 - 13 2 - 4 9 - 18 7 - 9 -11.9      -6.2 329 -5.7 336 67.8 204 -11.1 329 -13.5 7
349 Le Moyne 3.9%   5 - 13 2 - 3 10 - 19 7 - 9 -12.6      -5.9 323 -6.7 346 70.9 113 -11.4 331 -14.4 8
359 Mercyhurst 1.8%   5 - 13 2 - 4 9 - 19 6 - 10 -14.7      -8.0 349 -6.6 345 62.2 336 -10.8 324 -12.3 4
360 Chicago St. 2.2%   2 - 18 2 - 3 6 - 25 6 - 10 -14.7      -12.0 362 -2.6 258 70.8 119 -16.1 353 -13.3 6





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th
Central Connecticut St. 1.8 49.3 34.1 10.1 4.1 1.5 0.7 0.3 0.0 0.0
LIU Brooklyn 1.7 55.8 28.3 10.4 3.7 1.3 0.5 0.1 0.0
Stonehill 4.1 5.3 13.7 23.8 21.2 14.9 10.0 5.9 3.7 1.6
Fairleigh Dickinson 3.5 10.2 18.3 28.2 18.0 11.7 7.0 3.8 2.2 0.8
Wagner 5.7 1.4 4.9 10.7 14.9 14.9 15.7 14.7 13.0 9.8
St. Francis (PA) 5.7 0.8 3.6 10.3 15.9 18.1 16.6 14.2 12.0 8.6
Le Moyne 6.0 1.0 3.0 8.0 12.8 15.5 16.8 16.5 15.2 11.1
Mercyhurst 6.6 0.2 1.3 4.6 8.7 12.9 16.6 18.5 18.9 18.3
Chicago St. 6.7 0.4 1.4 3.9 8.1 11.6 15.2 18.4 20.0 21.1




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0
Central Connecticut St. 11 - 5 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.0 3.4 8.5 15.1 22.8 24.1 18.4 6.4
LIU Brooklyn 12 - 4 0.1 0.8 3.0 8.4 14.3 20.5 22.3 16.9 9.0 4.0 0.7
Stonehill 8 - 8 0.0 0.3 1.4 4.3 9.2 16.1 21.7 20.7 15.7 7.7 2.6 0.3
Fairleigh Dickinson 9 - 7 0.1 0.5 2.4 6.2 12.1 18.5 21.7 18.4 12.6 5.5 2.0 0.3
Wagner 7 - 9 0.5 3.1 7.9 14.9 18.8 19.3 16.3 11.3 5.5 2.1 0.4 0.0
St. Francis (PA) 7 - 9 0.4 2.2 6.6 13.9 19.0 22.6 18.0 11.0 4.7 1.3 0.2
Le Moyne 7 - 9 0.5 3.3 9.6 16.5 21.1 20.1 15.0 8.8 3.8 1.0 0.3 0.1
Mercyhurst 6 - 10 1.2 5.7 13.6 21.2 23.2 18.0 10.7 4.6 1.5 0.1 0.0
Chicago St. 6 - 10 1.7 7.0 14.8 21.9 22.5 16.1 9.8 4.2 1.6 0.3 0.1




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Central Connecticut St. 49.3% 32.6 14.0 2.5 0.3 0.0
LIU Brooklyn 55.8% 39.4 13.6 2.5 0.3 0.0
Stonehill 5.3% 1.9 2.1 1.0 0.2 0.0
Fairleigh Dickinson 10.2% 4.6 3.6 1.7 0.3 0.0
Wagner 1.4% 0.4 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0
St. Francis (PA) 0.8% 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0
Le Moyne 1.0% 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0
Mercyhurst 0.2% 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
Chicago St. 0.4% 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Central Connecticut St. 41.5% 41.5% 0.0% 16   0.1 1.4 4.6 14.3 21.2 58.5 0.0%
LIU Brooklyn 15.3% 15.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.4 14.9 84.7 0.0%
Stonehill 13.6% 13.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 13.4 86.4 0.0%
Fairleigh Dickinson 10.3% 10.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 10.2 89.7 0.0%
Wagner 5.9% 5.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 5.9 94.1 0.0%
St. Francis (PA) 5.5% 5.5% 0.0% 0.1 5.5 94.5 0.0%
Le Moyne 3.9% 3.9% 0.0% 3.9 96.1 0.0%
Mercyhurst 1.8% 1.8% 0.0% 1.8 98.2 0.0%
Chicago St. 2.2% 2.2% 0.0% 2.2 97.8 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Central Connecticut St. 41.5% 10.0% 36.3% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
LIU Brooklyn 15.3% 13.6% 7.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Stonehill 13.6% 12.5% 6.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Fairleigh Dickinson 10.3% 10.0% 4.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Wagner 5.9% 5.8% 2.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
St. Francis (PA) 5.5% 5.4% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Le Moyne 3.9% 3.9% 1.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Mercyhurst 1.8% 1.8% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Chicago St. 2.2% 2.2% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0
1st Round 60.5% 0.6 39.5 60.5
2nd Round 0.4% 0.0 99.6 0.4
Sweet Sixteen 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Elite Eight 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0