Northeast
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
280 Wagner 27.3%   16   1 - 3 0 - 0 15 - 10 11 - 5 -6.1      -7.6 351 +1.5 127 57.0 363 +1.3 175 0.0 1
286 Central Connecticut St. 27.1%   1 - 3 0 - 0 14 - 13 11 - 5 -6.3      -5.9 332 -0.3 178 66.9 255 -4.3 243 0.0 1
337 Le Moyne 10.2%   0 - 4 0 - 0 11 - 18 8 - 8 -10.8      -5.3 320 -5.4 339 67.7 232 -11.1 314 0.0 1
338 LIU Brooklyn 8.8%   1 - 3 0 - 0 11 - 18 8 - 8 -11.1      -6.1 336 -5.1 333 74.2 68 -6.2 270 0.0 1
339 Stonehill 7.6%   2 - 4 0 - 0 12 - 17 8 - 8 -11.2      -8.4 356 -2.7 263 69.6 172 -8.6 293 0.0 1
343 St. Francis (PA) 6.4%   1 - 4 0 - 0 9 - 17 7 - 9 -12.2      -8.1 354 -4.1 306 71.9 104 -3.6 233 0.0 1
348 Fairleigh Dickinson 4.9%   1 - 4 0 - 0 9 - 19 7 - 9 -12.7      -4.0 288 -8.7 363 78.5 24 -8.8 294 0.0 1
350 Chicago St. 4.6%   0 - 5 0 - 0 7 - 23 7 - 9 -12.9      -8.7 358 -4.2 309 76.2 42 -13.4 328 0.0 1
359 Mercyhurst 3.2%   2 - 2 0 - 0 9 - 19 6 - 10 -14.3      -9.3 362 -5.1 334 62.0 345 -3.8 236 0.0 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th
Wagner 2.6 39.5 22.3 13.5 9.2 6.2 4.2 2.7 1.7 0.8
Central Connecticut St. 2.7 37.4 22.7 13.5 9.6 6.6 4.5 3.3 1.7 0.8
Le Moyne 4.6 11.3 13.2 13.2 13.3 12.7 11.9 10.0 7.8 6.6
LIU Brooklyn 4.7 9.2 12.2 13.2 14.1 12.9 11.7 10.3 9.5 7.0
Stonehill 4.8 8.1 12.2 14.4 13.6 13.4 12.3 10.5 8.8 6.7
St. Francis (PA) 5.3 6.4 9.6 10.9 12.0 13.4 13.0 12.4 11.8 10.5
Fairleigh Dickinson 5.6 4.7 7.6 10.0 11.7 12.7 13.1 14.2 13.7 12.3
Chicago St. 5.7 4.1 7.5 9.7 11.5 12.8 12.7 13.9 14.7 13.2
Mercyhurst 6.3 3.0 5.0 6.8 9.5 10.2 12.3 14.5 17.8 21.0




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0
Wagner 11 - 5 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 1.6 3.4 5.2 7.8 10.7 13.2 14.4 14.2 12.4 9.3 4.8 1.7
Central Connecticut St. 11 - 5 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.9 3.6 5.7 8.2 11.0 12.9 15.0 14.3 12.5 8.1 4.1 1.3
Le Moyne 8 - 8 0.1 0.7 1.4 2.9 5.3 7.9 11.3 13.0 13.6 12.2 11.2 8.8 5.7 3.8 1.6 0.6 0.1
LIU Brooklyn 8 - 8 0.1 0.6 1.6 3.5 6.0 8.6 11.1 13.1 14.0 12.6 11.0 8.1 5.0 3.0 1.3 0.4 0.1
Stonehill 8 - 8 0.1 0.4 1.5 3.1 5.9 8.8 11.2 13.6 14.5 13.0 11.2 8.0 4.8 2.6 0.9 0.3 0.1
St. Francis (PA) 7 - 9 0.2 1.0 2.4 5.4 8.0 10.8 12.9 14.2 13.0 10.7 8.7 6.0 3.7 2.0 0.6 0.2 0.0
Fairleigh Dickinson 7 - 9 0.1 1.1 3.2 6.0 9.7 12.7 13.2 14.1 12.9 9.9 7.5 4.9 2.8 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0
Chicago St. 7 - 9 0.4 1.5 3.6 6.6 9.6 12.6 13.8 13.6 12.5 9.9 7.3 4.5 2.7 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0
Mercyhurst 6 - 10 0.8 2.8 5.6 9.6 13.2 14.1 13.6 12.3 9.9 7.5 4.9 3.2 1.6 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Wagner 39.5% 28.7 8.7 1.7 0.4 0.0
Central Connecticut St. 37.4% 26.3 8.7 1.9 0.4 0.0
Le Moyne 11.3% 6.3 3.6 1.1 0.3 0.0
LIU Brooklyn 9.2% 5.3 2.7 1.0 0.2 0.0
Stonehill 8.1% 4.3 2.6 0.9 0.2 0.0
St. Francis (PA) 6.4% 3.5 2.0 0.6 0.2 0.0
Fairleigh Dickinson 4.7% 2.5 1.6 0.5 0.2 0.0
Chicago St. 4.1% 2.1 1.4 0.4 0.2 0.0
Mercyhurst 3.0% 1.5 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Wagner 27.3% 27.3% 0.0% 16   0.0 0.1 0.5 1.5 4.2 20.9 72.7 0.0%
Central Connecticut St. 27.1% 27.1% 0.0% 0.1 0.3 0.9 2.5 23.4 72.9 0.0%
Le Moyne 10.2% 10.2% 0.0% 0.1 10.0 89.8 0.0%
LIU Brooklyn 8.8% 8.8% 0.0% 0.1 8.7 91.2 0.0%
Stonehill 7.6% 7.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 7.5 92.4 0.0%
St. Francis (PA) 6.4% 6.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 6.3 93.6 0.0%
Fairleigh Dickinson 4.9% 4.9% 0.0% 4.9 95.1 0.0%
Chicago St. 4.6% 4.6% 0.0% 0.0 4.6 95.4 0.0%
Mercyhurst 3.2% 3.2% 0.0% 0.0 3.1 96.8 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Wagner 27.3% 16.6% 17.8% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Central Connecticut St. 27.1% 19.4% 16.7% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Le Moyne 10.2% 9.8% 4.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
LIU Brooklyn 8.8% 8.2% 3.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Stonehill 7.6% 7.3% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
St. Francis (PA) 6.4% 6.0% 2.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Fairleigh Dickinson 4.9% 4.8% 1.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Chicago St. 4.6% 4.6% 1.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Mercyhurst 3.2% 3.1% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0
1st Round 52.3% 0.5 47.7 52.3
2nd Round 0.7% 0.0 99.3 0.7
Sweet Sixteen 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Elite Eight 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0