Northeast
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
219 Central Connecticut St. 42.9%   16   7 - 4 0 - 0 19 - 8 12 - 4 -3.1      -4.2 290 +1.1 135 65.1 278 +3.2 120 0.0 1
308 Wagner 14.4%   4 - 5 0 - 0 13 - 12 9 - 7 -8.1      -9.0 359 +0.9 140 57.0 363 -3.5 224 0.0 1
322 Stonehill 10.8%   5 - 7 0 - 0 14 - 15 9 - 7 -9.1      -3.8 281 -5.2 331 65.1 277 -5.9 267 0.0 1
332 Le Moyne 8.1%   3 - 9 0 - 0 11 - 18 8 - 8 -10.2      -5.7 329 -4.5 316 71.1 117 -8.1 295 0.0 1
333 Fairleigh Dickinson 8.1%   1 - 10 0 - 0 9 - 19 8 - 8 -10.2      -3.2 264 -7.0 354 76.9 25 -13.1 339 0.0 1
337 LIU Brooklyn 5.8%   2 - 11 0 - 0 9 - 20 7 - 9 -11.1      -8.3 357 -2.8 262 69.9 153 -11.9 334 0.0 1
339 St. Francis (PA) 6.0%   2 - 9 0 - 0 9 - 18 7 - 9 -11.2      -5.2 319 -6.0 345 71.4 107 -8.5 307 0.0 1
359 Mercyhurst 2.1%   3 - 9 0 - 0 9 - 19 6 - 10 -14.0      -8.1 356 -6.0 344 62.6 333 -9.2 315 0.0 1
361 Chicago St. 1.8%   0 - 14 0 - 0 5 - 26 5 - 11 -14.5      -10.4 362 -4.2 298 72.9 82 -16.2 353 0.0 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th
Central Connecticut St. 1.7 64.4 18.5 8.1 4.3 2.3 1.3 0.6 0.3 0.1
Wagner 3.5 17.6 22.3 17.3 13.3 10.1 7.8 5.7 3.8 2.1
Stonehill 4.0 11.6 18.4 17.5 14.7 12.3 9.9 7.5 5.3 2.8
Le Moyne 4.6 7.7 13.9 15.0 14.8 13.5 12.3 10.3 7.6 4.9
Fairleigh Dickinson 4.6 7.6 13.7 14.8 14.6 13.6 12.0 10.4 7.9 5.4
LIU Brooklyn 5.1 5.1 10.5 12.9 14.0 14.2 13.9 12.5 10.2 6.8
St. Francis (PA) 5.1 5.3 10.2 12.3 13.6 13.9 13.8 12.5 10.6 7.8
Mercyhurst 6.6 1.3 3.5 5.9 7.9 10.2 13.0 15.9 20.1 22.3
Chicago St. 6.8 0.9 2.7 4.7 6.9 9.4 12.2 16.6 21.2 25.4




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0
Central Connecticut St. 12 - 4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.6 3.3 6.1 10.2 14.5 17.8 18.3 15.2 9.1 2.9
Wagner 9 - 7 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 2.0 3.9 6.7 10.1 13.0 15.0 15.2 13.3 9.7 6.0 2.9 0.9 0.1
Stonehill 9 - 7 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.2 2.9 5.5 9.0 12.3 15.1 15.7 14.2 11.1 7.0 3.8 1.4 0.4 0.1
Le Moyne 8 - 8 0.0 0.2 0.8 2.2 4.6 7.9 11.7 14.4 15.5 14.8 11.7 8.2 4.8 2.2 0.8 0.2 0.0
Fairleigh Dickinson 8 - 8 0.1 0.2 1.0 2.4 4.9 8.1 11.5 14.6 15.3 14.3 11.8 8.1 4.6 2.2 0.8 0.2 0.0
LIU Brooklyn 7 - 9 0.1 0.3 1.2 3.0 6.3 10.3 13.8 15.9 15.4 13.2 9.6 6.1 3.0 1.3 0.4 0.1 0.0
St. Francis (PA) 7 - 9 0.1 0.4 1.6 3.6 6.7 10.6 13.7 15.6 14.9 12.6 9.3 5.7 3.2 1.4 0.5 0.1 0.0
Mercyhurst 6 - 10 0.5 2.2 5.6 10.1 14.3 16.2 15.8 13.3 9.8 6.3 3.5 1.6 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0
Chicago St. 5 - 11 0.6 2.6 6.5 11.3 15.3 17.2 15.9 12.6 8.4 5.2 2.7 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Central Connecticut St. 64.4% 51.0 10.9 2.2 0.3 0.0 0.0
Wagner 17.6% 10.7 5.3 1.4 0.3 0.0
Stonehill 11.6% 6.2 4.0 1.1 0.2 0.0
Le Moyne 7.7% 4.1 2.6 0.8 0.2 0.0
Fairleigh Dickinson 7.6% 3.9 2.6 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0
LIU Brooklyn 5.1% 2.5 1.8 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0
St. Francis (PA) 5.3% 2.8 1.8 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0
Mercyhurst 1.3% 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Chicago St. 0.9% 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Central Connecticut St. 42.9% 42.9% 0.0% 16   0.0 1.0 3.0 7.7 15.2 16.0 57.1 0.0%
Wagner 14.4% 14.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.2 1.2 12.9 85.6 0.0%
Stonehill 10.8% 10.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 10.5 89.2 0.0%
Le Moyne 8.1% 8.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 8.0 91.9 0.0%
Fairleigh Dickinson 8.1% 8.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 8.1 91.9 0.0%
LIU Brooklyn 5.8% 5.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 5.8 94.2 0.0%
St. Francis (PA) 6.0% 6.0% 0.0% 0.0 6.0 94.0 0.0%
Mercyhurst 2.1% 2.1% 0.0% 0.0 2.1 97.9 0.0%
Chicago St. 1.8% 1.8% 0.0% 1.8 98.2 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Central Connecticut St. 42.9% 7.3% 38.9% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Wagner 14.4% 10.4% 8.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Stonehill 10.8% 9.4% 5.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Le Moyne 8.1% 7.5% 3.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Fairleigh Dickinson 8.1% 7.9% 3.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
LIU Brooklyn 5.8% 5.7% 2.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
St. Francis (PA) 6.0% 5.8% 2.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Mercyhurst 2.1% 2.1% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Chicago St. 1.8% 1.8% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0
1st Round 65.6% 0.7 34.4 65.6
2nd Round 1.0% 0.0 99.0 1.0
Sweet Sixteen 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Elite Eight 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0