Minnesota
Big Ten
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+7.4#76
Expected Predictive Rating+9.2#62
Pace59.2#358
Improvement+5.3#17

Offense
Total Offense+3.7#83
First Shot+3.4#85
After Offensive Rebound+0.3#169
Layup/Dunks+4.1#50
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.4#92
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.9#237
Freethrows-0.2#184
Improvement+5.7#8

Defense
Total Defense+3.7#75
First Shot+1.2#135
After Offensive Rebounds+2.5#21
Layups/Dunks-0.3#179
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.2#220
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.7#228
Freethrows+2.5#36
Improvement-0.4#205
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 6.9% 10.0% 2.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 6.8% 10.0% 2.6%
Average Seed 10.6 10.6 10.8
.500 or above 62.9% 80.7% 39.2%
.500 or above in Conference 7.5% 12.4% 1.1%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 2.0% 0.0% 4.6%
First Four4.3% 6.0% 2.0%
First Round4.2% 6.2% 1.4%
Second Round1.1% 1.8% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.4% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Penn St. (Home) - 56.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 52 - 5
Quad 1b3 - 45 - 10
Quad 24 - 49 - 14
Quad 30 - 210 - 16
Quad 47 - 016 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2024 322   Oral Roberts W 80-57 95%     1 - 0 +11.0 +4.3 +8.4
  Nov 09, 2024 187   Nebraska Omaha W 68-64 86%     2 - 0 -0.1 -6.1 +6.2
  Nov 13, 2024 71   North Texas L 51-54 58%     2 - 1 +2.4 -5.2 +6.9
  Nov 16, 2024 70   Yale W 59-56 57%     3 - 1 +8.5 +4.2 +5.2
  Nov 19, 2024 170   Cleveland St. W 58-47 83%     4 - 1 +8.0 -9.8 +18.7
  Nov 25, 2024 215   Central Michigan W 68-65 88%     5 - 1 -2.3 -3.0 +0.9
  Nov 28, 2024 115   Wichita St. L 66-68 OT 67%     5 - 2 +0.8 -6.3 +7.2
  Nov 29, 2024 55   Wake Forest L 51-57 38%     5 - 3 +4.6 -6.4 +10.1
  Dec 01, 2024 293   Bethune-Cookman W 79-62 94%     6 - 3 +7.1 +10.1 -1.5
  Dec 04, 2024 12   Michigan St. L 72-90 22%     6 - 4 0 - 1 -2.3 +14.2 -18.1
  Dec 09, 2024 57   @ Indiana L 67-82 29%     6 - 5 0 - 2 -1.9 +2.4 -4.6
  Dec 21, 2024 318   Fairleigh Dickinson W 74-60 95%     7 - 5 +2.2 +0.0 +2.8
  Dec 29, 2024 330   Morgan St. W 90-68 96%     8 - 5 +9.0 +14.4 -3.7
  Jan 02, 2025 16   Purdue L 61-81 24%     8 - 6 0 - 3 -5.1 +4.6 -13.5
  Jan 06, 2025 33   Ohio St. L 88-89 2OT 36%     8 - 7 0 - 4 +10.1 +9.8 +0.5
  Jan 10, 2025 7   @ Wisconsin L 59-80 10%     8 - 8 0 - 5 +0.3 -2.0 +0.8
  Jan 13, 2025 13   @ Maryland L 71-77 11%     8 - 9 0 - 6 +14.5 +7.0 +7.6
  Jan 16, 2025 22   Michigan W 84-81 OT 29%     9 - 9 1 - 6 +16.1 +17.6 -1.5
  Jan 21, 2025 61   @ Iowa W 72-67 34%     10 - 9 2 - 6 +16.8 +4.9 +12.1
  Jan 25, 2025 39   Oregon W 77-69 41%     11 - 9 3 - 6 +17.6 +13.0 +5.1
  Jan 28, 2025 12   @ Michigan St. L 51-73 11%     11 - 10 3 - 7 -1.2 -3.2 -1.3
  Feb 01, 2025 90   Washington L 68-71 66%     11 - 11 3 - 8 +0.2 +1.6 -1.6
  Feb 04, 2025 62   @ Penn St. W 69-61 36%     12 - 11 4 - 8 +19.1 +9.3 +10.9
  Feb 08, 2025 18   Illinois L 74-95 28%     12 - 12 4 - 9 -7.4 +16.6 -26.8
  Feb 15, 2025 59   @ USC W 69-66 31%     13 - 12 5 - 9 +15.7 +7.8 +8.1
  Feb 18, 2025 27   @ UCLA W 64-61 18%     14 - 12 6 - 9 +20.3 +12.0 +8.8
  Feb 22, 2025 62   Penn St. W 71-70 57%    
  Feb 25, 2025 58   Northwestern L 64-65 49%    
  Mar 01, 2025 48   @ Nebraska L 65-71 26%    
  Mar 05, 2025 7   Wisconsin L 65-74 21%    
  Mar 09, 2025 63   @ Rutgers L 67-71 35%    
Projected Record 16 - 15 8 - 12




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.1 6th
7th 0.0 1.1 0.4 1.6 7th
8th 1.3 3.5 0.2 5.0 8th
9th 0.1 8.0 1.9 0.0 10.0 9th
10th 3.7 9.3 0.2 13.2 10th
11th 0.2 12.7 2.5 15.3 11th
12th 2.7 12.6 0.3 15.5 12th
13th 9.5 3.4 12.9 13th
14th 0.3 11.3 0.3 11.9 14th
15th 3.7 4.8 8.5 15th
16th 4.7 0.4 5.1 16th
17th 0.8 0.8 17th
18th 0.1 0.1 18th
Total 9.6 28.8 32.7 21.3 6.8 0.7 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9 0.7% 70.8% 1.4% 69.4% 9.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.2 70.4%
10-10 6.8% 43.1% 0.1% 42.9% 10.4 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.6 0.1 3.9 43.0%
9-11 21.3% 13.6% 0.1% 13.5% 10.9 0.1 0.3 2.2 0.3 18.4 13.5%
8-12 32.7% 1.5% 0.1% 1.4% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 32.3 1.4%
7-13 28.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 10.8 0.0 0.0 28.8 0.1%
6-14 9.6% 9.6
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 6.9% 0.1% 6.8% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.5 4.2 0.5 0.0 93.2 6.8%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 9.5%