Minnesota
Big Ten
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+5.7#90
Expected Predictive Rating+5.2#106
Pace60.5#354
Improvement-0.5#237

Offense
Total Offense+1.2#141
First Shot-2.8#258
After Offensive Rebound+4.0#26
Layup/Dunks-1.8#243
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.5#94
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.7#264
Freethrows+0.2#176
Improvement-1.6#351

Defense
Total Defense+4.5#58
First Shot+2.6#100
After Offensive Rebounds+1.9#72
Layups/Dunks+0.5#156
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.2#191
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.7#204
Freethrows+2.6#61
Improvement+1.2#46
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Top 6 Seed 1.1% 1.3% 0.3%
NCAA Tourney Bid 10.2% 11.3% 4.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 9.9% 10.9% 4.3%
Average Seed 9.0 9.0 9.5
.500 or above 44.2% 48.4% 21.3%
.500 or above in Conference 13.7% 14.8% 7.7%
Conference Champion 0.3% 0.4% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 27.8% 26.0% 37.3%
First Four2.2% 2.4% 1.5%
First Round8.9% 9.9% 3.5%
Second Round3.7% 4.1% 1.6%
Sweet Sixteen1.0% 1.1% 0.4%
Elite Eight0.3% 0.4% 0.1%
Final Four0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Central Michigan (Home) - 84.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 51 - 5
Quad 1b2 - 53 - 10
Quad 23 - 46 - 14
Quad 32 - 18 - 16
Quad 47 - 015 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2024 250   Oral Roberts W 80-57 89%     1 - 0 +15.6 +7.4 +9.8
  Nov 09, 2024 262   Nebraska Omaha W 68-64 90%     2 - 0 -4.2 -5.5 +1.5
  Nov 13, 2024 83   North Texas L 51-54 57%     2 - 1 +0.9 -6.1 +6.3
  Nov 16, 2024 108   Yale W 59-56 67%     3 - 1 +4.1 +3.0 +2.1
  Nov 19, 2024 219   Cleveland St. W 58-47 86%     4 - 1 +5.1 -12.0 +17.9
  Nov 25, 2024 202   Central Michigan W 69-58 85%    
  Nov 28, 2024 94   Wichita St. W 67-66 51%    
  Dec 01, 2024 286   Bethune-Cookman W 73-58 92%    
  Dec 04, 2024 35   Michigan St. L 64-67 38%    
  Dec 09, 2024 22   @ Indiana L 62-73 16%    
  Dec 21, 2024 342   Fairleigh Dickinson W 82-61 97%    
  Dec 29, 2024 333   Morgan St. W 79-60 96%    
  Jan 02, 2025 19   Purdue L 65-70 31%    
  Jan 06, 2025 20   Ohio St. L 61-66 31%    
  Jan 10, 2025 38   @ Wisconsin L 63-72 22%    
  Jan 13, 2025 30   @ Maryland L 60-70 18%    
  Jan 16, 2025 24   Michigan L 64-69 33%    
  Jan 21, 2025 41   @ Iowa L 67-76 22%    
  Jan 25, 2025 40   Oregon L 64-67 41%    
  Jan 28, 2025 35   @ Michigan St. L 61-70 21%    
  Feb 01, 2025 84   Washington W 68-66 57%    
  Feb 04, 2025 32   @ Penn St. L 65-75 19%    
  Feb 08, 2025 26   Illinois L 66-71 34%    
  Feb 15, 2025 78   @ USC L 65-70 35%    
  Feb 18, 2025 28   @ UCLA L 56-66 19%    
  Feb 22, 2025 32   Penn St. L 68-72 37%    
  Feb 25, 2025 74   Northwestern W 62-61 54%    
  Mar 01, 2025 65   @ Nebraska L 63-69 31%    
  Mar 05, 2025 38   Wisconsin L 66-69 41%    
  Mar 09, 2025 42   @ Rutgers L 61-69 24%    
Projected Record 14 - 16 6 - 14




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.8 3rd
4th 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 0.8 0.2 0.0 1.4 5th
6th 0.2 0.9 0.6 0.1 1.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.7 1.1 0.3 0.0 2.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 1.5 0.8 0.1 0.0 2.6 8th
9th 0.1 1.1 1.9 0.2 3.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.4 2.2 1.0 0.0 3.7 10th
11th 0.2 1.7 2.5 0.3 0.0 4.6 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 1.0 3.4 1.3 0.0 5.9 12th
13th 0.0 0.5 3.2 2.8 0.3 6.9 13th
14th 0.0 0.4 2.4 4.2 1.3 0.0 8.2 14th
15th 0.0 0.3 2.1 4.9 2.8 0.2 0.0 10.3 15th
16th 0.0 0.4 2.3 5.1 4.0 0.8 0.0 12.6 16th
17th 0.1 0.8 3.1 5.3 4.8 1.4 0.1 15.5 17th
18th 0.7 2.6 4.9 5.5 3.5 1.1 0.1 0.0 18.5 18th
Total 0.7 2.7 5.7 9.0 11.5 13.4 13.4 12.2 9.9 7.8 5.6 3.5 2.3 1.2 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
18-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-3 87.5% 0.0    0.0 0.0
16-4 69.8% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
15-5 38.1% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
14-6 12.4% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 1.6% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.3% 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1 0.0% 0.0
18-2 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
17-3 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
16-4 0.1% 100.0% 16.3% 83.7% 4.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-5 0.3% 99.1% 8.0% 91.2% 5.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.0%
14-6 0.6% 100.0% 10.4% 89.6% 6.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
13-7 1.2% 92.6% 5.2% 87.4% 7.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 92.2%
12-8 2.3% 81.2% 2.2% 78.9% 8.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.4 80.7%
11-9 3.5% 65.9% 0.6% 65.3% 9.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.0 1.2 65.7%
10-10 5.6% 42.4% 0.5% 41.9% 10.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.7 0.9 0.1 3.2 42.2%
9-11 7.8% 14.7% 0.4% 14.4% 10.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.1 6.6 14.4%
8-12 9.9% 2.8% 0.2% 2.5% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 9.6 2.5%
7-13 12.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 12.2 0.1%
6-14 13.4% 0.0% 0.0% 12.0 0.0 13.4
5-15 13.4% 13.4
4-16 11.5% 11.5
3-17 9.0% 9.0
2-18 5.7% 5.7
1-19 2.7% 2.7
0-20 0.7% 0.7
Total 100% 10.2% 0.3% 9.9% 9.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.8 1.5 2.0 2.2 2.3 0.2 89.8 9.9%