Army
Patriot League
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-6.9#287
Expected Predictive Rating-4.6#240
Pace67.3#201
Improvement+1.4#123

Offense
Total Offense-3.2#262
First Shot-1.9#228
After Offensive Rebound-1.3#264
Layup/Dunks+0.4#166
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.5#314
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.7#69
Freethrows-3.5#353
Improvement-0.2#195

Defense
Total Defense-3.7#286
First Shot-3.6#291
After Offensive Rebounds-0.2#205
Layups/Dunks-2.3#274
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.5#157
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.5#310
Freethrows+1.8#67
Improvement+1.7#97
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 10.2% 12.5% 9.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 15.9 16.0
.500 or above 90.1% 100.0% 86.1%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 16.3% 41.7% 5.9%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four7.9% 7.9% 8.0%
First Round5.8% 7.9% 4.9%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Bucknell (Away) - 29.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 10 - 2
Quad 30 - 40 - 5
Quad 416 - 816 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 267   Albany W 67-59 55%     1 - 0 -0.1 -7.7 +7.9
  Nov 08, 2024 2   @ Duke L 58-100 1%     1 - 1 -15.9 -3.9 -11.4
  Nov 15, 2024 223   @ Marist L 88-91 OT 28%     1 - 2 -3.7 +17.2 -21.0
  Nov 20, 2024 318   Fairleigh Dickinson W 84-70 68%     2 - 2 +2.2 +5.0 -3.1
  Nov 22, 2024 263   @ Manhattan L 79-80 35%     2 - 3 -3.9 +0.0 -3.9
  Dec 03, 2024 357   @ Le Moyne W 103-100 3OT 66%     3 - 3 -8.3 -6.4 -2.8
  Dec 08, 2024 164   Cornell L 84-103 34%     3 - 4 -21.7 +4.4 -25.7
  Dec 13, 2024 117   @ George Washington L 60-75 13%     3 - 5 -9.7 -4.0 -6.9
  Dec 22, 2024 299   Binghamton L 68-78 63%     3 - 6 -20.2 -10.5 -9.6
  Dec 29, 2024 208   Texas San Antonio W 78-75 43%     4 - 6 -2.1 -5.8 +3.5
  Jan 02, 2025 239   @ Colgate L 59-71 31%     4 - 7 0 - 1 -13.7 -15.7 +1.7
  Jan 05, 2025 300   @ Boston University L 63-71 43%     4 - 8 0 - 2 -13.3 -6.2 -7.7
  Jan 08, 2025 325   Loyola Maryland W 74-72 70%     5 - 8 1 - 2 -10.5 +1.6 -11.9
  Jan 11, 2025 279   @ Lehigh W 74-69 39%     6 - 8 2 - 2 +1.0 -2.6 +3.4
  Jan 15, 2025 298   Lafayette W 70-68 63%     7 - 8 3 - 2 -8.2 +3.5 -11.4
  Jan 18, 2025 300   Boston University W 68-62 63%     8 - 8 4 - 2 -4.4 +3.9 -7.1
  Jan 22, 2025 317   @ Holy Cross W 76-71 49%     9 - 8 5 - 2 -1.6 -3.8 +2.0
  Jan 26, 2025 283   Navy L 53-66 59%     9 - 9 5 - 3 -22.4 -18.3 -5.4
  Jan 29, 2025 239   Colgate W 84-72 50%     10 - 9 6 - 3 +5.2 +10.6 -4.7
  Feb 01, 2025 247   @ American L 68-71 33%     10 - 10 6 - 4 -5.3 +2.7 -8.4
  Feb 05, 2025 317   Holy Cross W 68-65 68%     11 - 10 7 - 4 -8.7 -6.8 -1.7
  Feb 08, 2025 232   Bucknell W 116-110 2OT 48%     12 - 10 8 - 4 -0.4 +21.7 -23.2
  Feb 12, 2025 325   @ Loyola Maryland W 64-60 52%     13 - 10 9 - 4 -3.4 -8.6 +5.4
  Feb 15, 2025 283   @ Navy L 54-61 40%     13 - 11 9 - 5 -11.3 -10.3 -2.3
  Feb 19, 2025 247   American W 76-69 52%     14 - 11 10 - 5 -0.4 +6.9 -6.5
  Feb 23, 2025 232   @ Bucknell L 68-74 29%    
  Feb 25, 2025 298   @ Lafayette L 67-69 41%    
  Mar 01, 2025 279   Lehigh W 71-69 59%    
Projected Record 15 - 13 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Patriot League Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.4 9.4 6.5 16.3 1st
2nd 7.7 18.3 1.5 27.4 2nd
3rd 4.5 25.5 4.0 34.1 3rd
4th 12.8 8.6 21.4 4th
5th 0.8 0.8 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
Total 18.2 42.2 31.7 8.0 Total



Patriot League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 81.8% 6.5    2.9 3.6
12-6 29.7% 9.4    0.5 3.2 3.8 2.0
11-7 1.0% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1
10-8 0.0%
9-9
Total 16.3% 16.3 3.4 6.8 3.9 2.2 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 8.0% 16.5% 16.5% 15.8 0.3 1.0 6.6
12-6 31.7% 11.6% 11.6% 16.0 0.1 3.6 28.0
11-7 42.2% 9.8% 9.8% 16.0 0.0 4.1 38.1
10-8 18.2% 5.8% 5.8% 16.0 1.1 17.1
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 10.2% 10.2% 0.0% 16.0 0.4 9.8 89.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.3% 100.0% 15.8 24.4 75.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 1.2%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 2.3%
Lose Out 9.9%