Quinnipiac
Metro Atlantic Athletic
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-1.1#186
Expected Predictive Rating-0.9#188
Pace75.4#31
Improvement+7.3#4

Offense
Total Offense-2.6#239
First Shot-2.9#265
After Offensive Rebound+0.2#165
Layup/Dunks-0.4#202
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.6#81
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.9#299
Freethrows-0.2#188
Improvement+4.1#18

Defense
Total Defense+1.5#128
First Shot+1.5#127
After Offensive Rebounds+0.0#193
Layups/Dunks+0.7#140
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.2#182
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.3#181
Freethrows+0.3#172
Improvement+3.2#35
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 26.1% 27.1% 21.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.9 14.8 15.3
.500 or above 97.7% 98.6% 93.6%
.500 or above in Conference 99.9% 100.0% 99.7%
Conference Champion 59.5% 64.1% 39.7%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four1.8% 1.6% 2.7%
First Round25.3% 26.3% 20.6%
Second Round0.8% 0.9% 0.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Rider (Home) - 81.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 16 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 10 - 3
Quad 32 - 32 - 6
Quad 418 - 620 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 89   @ Yale L 62-88 17%     0 - 1 -16.9 -9.4 -6.7
  Nov 09, 2024 17   @ St. John's L 73-96 4%     0 - 2 -3.8 +3.7 -4.9
  Nov 15, 2024 201   Maine W 58-55 63%     1 - 2 -1.6 -12.0 +10.5
  Nov 19, 2024 292   @ Navy W 74-63 64%     2 - 2 +6.1 +1.1 +5.4
  Nov 23, 2024 190   @ Umass Lowell L 70-80 41%     2 - 3 -8.7 -6.2 -2.2
  Nov 25, 2024 103   @ Saint Louis L 67-81 23%     2 - 4 -7.3 -12.4 +6.8
  Dec 01, 2024 316   @ Stonehill L 74-88 69%     2 - 5 -20.3 +2.0 -23.1
  Dec 06, 2024 294   @ Rider W 72-67 65%     3 - 5 1 - 0 +0.0 +3.6 -3.2
  Dec 08, 2024 298   Sacred Heart W 83-73 81%     4 - 5 2 - 0 -0.3 +1.4 -2.0
  Dec 17, 2024 319   Holy Cross L 69-70 84%     4 - 6 -12.8 -11.4 -1.4
  Dec 21, 2024 229   @ Central Connecticut St. L 80-84 51%     4 - 7 -5.3 +7.1 -12.2
  Dec 29, 2024 176   Hofstra W 75-69 OT 59%     5 - 7 +2.7 -2.4 +4.5
  Jan 03, 2025 231   @ St. Peter's W 59-46 52%     6 - 7 3 - 0 +11.5 -3.9 +16.8
  Jan 05, 2025 217   @ Marist L 62-69 48%     6 - 8 3 - 1 -7.6 -10.2 +2.9
  Jan 10, 2025 273   Siena W 72-53 77%     7 - 8 4 - 1 +10.2 -4.8 +14.6
  Jan 12, 2025 252   @ Iona W 63-62 56%     8 - 8 5 - 1 -1.7 -8.7 +7.0
  Jan 16, 2025 204   Merrimack W 81-76 64%     9 - 8 6 - 1 +0.3 +7.0 -6.9
  Jan 18, 2025 266   @ Mount St. Mary's W 91-57 59%     10 - 8 7 - 1 +30.7 +21.9 +9.6
  Jan 25, 2025 294   Rider W 75-66 81%    
  Jan 31, 2025 318   Fairfield W 79-68 85%    
  Feb 02, 2025 273   @ Siena W 72-69 58%    
  Feb 06, 2025 345   Canisius W 81-68 90%    
  Feb 08, 2025 312   Niagara W 76-66 83%    
  Feb 14, 2025 298   @ Sacred Heart W 79-75 64%    
  Feb 16, 2025 252   Iona W 75-68 75%    
  Feb 23, 2025 296   @ Manhattan W 80-76 64%    
  Feb 28, 2025 231   St. Peter's W 67-61 71%    
  Mar 02, 2025 204   @ Merrimack L 67-69 43%    
  Mar 06, 2025 266   Mount St. Mary's W 76-69 76%    
  Mar 08, 2025 318   @ Fairfield W 76-71 68%    
Projected Record 19 - 11 16 - 4




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Metro Atlantic Athletic Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.4 2.9 9.7 16.5 17.0 10.4 2.6 59.5 1st
2nd 0.4 3.1 7.6 9.8 5.6 1.5 0.1 28.2 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.5 3.7 2.8 1.2 0.1 9.4 3rd
4th 0.1 0.3 1.0 0.5 0.1 2.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.5 5th
6th 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 6th
7th 0.1 0.0 0.1 7th
8th 0.1 0.0 0.1 8th
9th 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 3.1 7.7 13.4 20.7 22.2 18.5 10.5 2.6 Total



Metro Atlantic Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1 100.0% 2.6    2.6 0.0
18-2 98.8% 10.4    9.8 0.6
17-3 91.9% 17.0    13.8 3.1 0.1
16-4 74.4% 16.5    11.2 5.0 0.4
15-5 46.8% 9.7    4.7 4.0 1.0 0.0
14-6 21.4% 2.9    0.6 1.4 0.7 0.1 0.0
13-7 5.0% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
12-8 1.6% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 59.5% 59.5 42.7 14.2 2.3 0.2 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1 2.6% 38.7% 38.7% 13.1 0.2 0.6 0.3 1.6
18-2 10.5% 37.3% 37.3% 14.1 0.1 0.7 2.1 1.1 0.0 6.6
17-3 18.5% 31.0% 31.0% 14.6 0.3 2.0 3.1 0.3 12.7
16-4 22.2% 27.6% 27.6% 15.0 0.0 0.9 4.2 1.1 16.1
15-5 20.7% 22.7% 22.7% 15.4 0.2 2.4 2.1 16.0
14-6 13.4% 20.1% 20.1% 15.6 0.0 1.0 1.6 10.7
13-7 7.7% 17.2% 17.2% 15.8 0.2 1.1 6.4
12-8 3.1% 15.6% 15.6% 15.8 0.1 0.4 2.7
11-9 0.9% 7.0% 7.0% 16.0 0.1 0.8
10-10 0.3% 20.0% 20.0% 16.0 0.1 0.2
9-11 0.1% 0.1
8-12
7-13 0.0% 0.0
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 26.1% 26.1% 0.0% 14.9 0.2 1.5 5.5 12.1 6.8 73.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.0% 100.0% 13.1 18.8 56.4 24.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.5%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.5%