IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Incarnate Word
Southland
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating	-8.1	#308
Expected Predictive Rating	-5.5	#263

Pace	69.5	#170
Improvement	+0.3	#138

Offense
Total Offense	-1.1	#204

First Shot	-1.2	#218
After Offensive Rebound	+0.0	#178

Layup/Dunks	-2.9	#277
2 Pt Jumpshots	+4.8	#15
3 Pt Jumpshots	-0.9	#211
Freethrows	-2.2	#292

Improvement	+0.1	#154

Defense
Total Defense	-7.0	#354

First Shot	-7.3	#352
After Offensive Rebounds	+0.3	#165

Layups/Dunks	-3.9	#298
2 Pt Jumpshots	+1.7	#82
3 Pt Jumpshots	-3.1	#293
Freethrows	-2.0	#286

Improvement	+0.2	#156

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	1.4%	2.1%	1.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Average Seed	15.4	15.3	15.5

.500 or above	38.5%	56.2%	30.5%
.500 or above in Conference	47.6%	57.6%	43.1%
Conference Champion	1.2%	2.0%	0.9%
Last Place in Conference	4.9%	2.7%	5.8%

First Four	0.4%	0.5%	0.3%
First Round	1.2%	1.8%	0.9%
Second Round	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Sweet Sixteen	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Northern Arizona (Away) - 31.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 1	0 - 1
Quad 1b	0 - 0	0 - 1
Quad 2	0 - 1	0 - 2
Quad 3	1 - 5	1 - 7
Quad 4	12 - 8	13 - 15

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 04, 2024	181	@ California Baptist	L	78-83	17%	0 - 1			-3.0	+7.6	-10.8
Nov 12, 2024	348	Prairie View	W	84-81	76%	1 - 1			-12.7	+1.9	-14.7
Nov 16, 2024	362	Arkansas Pine Bluff	W	92-64	85%	2 - 1			+8.8	+11.6	-1.5
Nov 22, 2024	277	@ Northern Arizona	L	71-76	31%
Nov 25, 2024	196	@ South Alabama	L	70-79	19%
Nov 27, 2024	325	Western Illinois	W	71-70	54%
Dec 05, 2024	316	Northwestern St.	W	76-73	62%
Dec 07, 2024	352	Texas A&M - Commerce	W	77-69	77%
Dec 10, 2024	5	@ Duke	L	61-91	0.3%
Jan 04, 2025	182	@ Stephen F. Austin	L	64-74	18%
Jan 06, 2025	290	@ Lamar	L	75-79	35%
Jan 11, 2025	357	@ Houston Christian	W	79-76	61%
Jan 13, 2025	220	Nicholls St.	L	72-74	42%
Jan 18, 2025	212	TX A&M Corpus Christi	L	79-82	41%
Jan 20, 2025	191	UT Rio Grande Valley	L	79-83	37%
Jan 25, 2025	271	@ SE Louisiana	L	71-76	32%
Jan 27, 2025	358	@ New Orleans	W	80-77	60%
Feb 01, 2025	357	Houston Christian	W	82-73	78%
Feb 03, 2025	91	@ McNeese St.	L	64-81	7%
Feb 08, 2025	271	SE Louisiana	W	74-73	52%
Feb 10, 2025	358	New Orleans	W	83-74	78%
Feb 15, 2025	212	@ TX A&M Corpus Christi	L	76-85	23%
Feb 17, 2025	191	@ UT Rio Grande Valley	L	76-86	20%
Feb 22, 2025	182	Stephen F. Austin	L	67-71	36%
Feb 24, 2025	290	Lamar	W	78-76	55%
Mar 01, 2025	352	@ Texas A&M - Commerce	W	74-72	56%
Mar 03, 2025	316	Northwestern St.	W	76-73	61%
Projected Record						12 - 15	9 - 11

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Southland Finish

	0-20	1-19	2-18	3-17	4-16	5-15	6-14	7-13	8-12	9-11	10-10	11-9	12-8	13-7	14-6	15-5	16-4	17-3	18-2	19-1	20-0		Total
1st														0.0	0.1	0.3	0.4	0.3	0.2	0.0	0.0		1.2	1st
2nd													0.1	0.6	1.4	1.6	0.9	0.3	0.0	0.0			5.0	2nd
3rd											0.0	0.2	1.3	2.7	2.3	0.8	0.1	0.0					7.4	3rd
4th										0.0	0.3	1.9	3.8	2.7	0.7	0.1							9.6	4th
5th									0.0	0.4	2.5	4.7	2.9	0.6	0.0								11.2	5th
6th								0.0	0.5	2.8	5.4	3.0	0.7	0.0									12.4	6th
7th							0.0	0.5	3.1	5.4	3.3	0.6	0.0										12.9	7th
8th						0.0	0.6	3.1	5.6	2.9	0.5	0.0											12.8	8th
9th					0.0	0.7	3.0	4.5	2.4	0.4	0.0												11.1	9th
10th				0.1	0.8	2.6	3.2	1.6	0.2														8.4	10th
11th		0.0	0.1	0.8	2.0	1.9	0.7	0.1	0.0														5.5	11th
12th	0.0	0.2	0.6	0.8	0.7	0.2	0.0																2.6	12th

Total	0.0	0.2	0.7	1.7	3.5	5.3	7.6	9.8	11.7	11.9	12.1	10.4	8.9	6.7	4.5	2.7	1.4	0.6	0.2	0.0	0.0			Total

Southland Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
20-0	100.0%	0.0		0.0
19-1	83.3%	0.0		0.0	0.0
18-2	80.9%	0.2		0.1	0.1	0.0
17-3	53.7%	0.3		0.2	0.1	0.0
16-4	26.4%	0.4		0.2	0.2	0.0	0.0
15-5	9.5%	0.3		0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0
14-6	1.4%	0.1		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
13-7	0.1%	0.0				0.0		0.0
12-8	0.0%
11-9	0.0%
10-10	0.0%

Total	1.2%	1.2		0.6	0.5	0.2	0.0	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
20-0	0.0%																				0.0			0.0
19-1	0.0%																		0.0	0.0				0.0
18-2	0.2%		24.7%	24.7%		13.8													0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.2
17-3	0.6%		18.6%	18.6%		14.6														0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.5
16-4	1.4%		14.7%	14.7%		15.2															0.0	0.1	0.1	1.2
15-5	2.7%		9.1%	9.1%		15.4															0.0	0.1	0.1	2.5
14-6	4.5%		4.7%	4.7%		15.6															0.0	0.1	0.1	4.3
13-7	6.7%		2.5%	2.5%		15.6															0.0	0.1	0.1	6.5
12-8	8.9%		1.8%	1.8%		15.9																0.0	0.1	8.7
11-9	10.4%		1.0%	1.0%		16.0																0.0	0.1	10.3
10-10	12.1%		0.5%	0.5%		16.0																	0.1	12.1
9-11	11.9%		0.3%	0.3%		16.0																	0.0	11.9
8-12	11.7%		0.1%	0.1%		16.0																	0.0	11.7
7-13	9.8%																							9.8
6-14	7.6%																							7.6
5-15	5.3%																							5.3
4-16	3.5%																							3.5
3-17	1.7%																							1.7
2-18	0.7%																							0.7
1-19	0.2%																							0.2
0-20	0.0%																							0.0

Total	100%		1.4%	1.4%	0.0%	15.4													0.0	0.0	0.1	0.5	0.8	98.6		0.0%