Incarnate Word
Southland
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-8.4#310
Expected Predictive Rating-10.6#323
Pace64.4#288
Improvement-1.5#242

Offense
Total Offense-1.0#206
First Shot+0.0#177
After Offensive Rebound-0.9#249
Layup/Dunks-4.0#316
2 Pt Jumpshots+4.1#19
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.7#91
Freethrows-2.8#333
Improvement-1.9#292

Defense
Total Defense-7.4#351
First Shot-7.6#356
After Offensive Rebounds+0.2#162
Layups/Dunks-2.1#262
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.4#2
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.7#335
Freethrows-4.2#361
Improvement+0.4#156
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.9 15.9 15.9
.500 or above 4.0% 10.7% 2.0%
.500 or above in Conference 9.0% 21.7% 5.4%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 5.4% 1.5% 6.5%
First Four0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
First Round0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: SE Louisiana (Away) - 22.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 10 - 3
Quad 31 - 51 - 8
Quad 49 - 910 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 173   @ California Baptist L 78-83 16%     0 - 1 -3.0 +9.2 -12.4
  Nov 12, 2024 337   Prairie View W 84-81 71%     1 - 1 -11.1 +1.7 -12.8
  Nov 16, 2024 363   Arkansas Pine Bluff W 92-64 87%     2 - 1 +7.3 +10.7 -2.2
  Nov 22, 2024 262   @ Northern Arizona L 74-75 31%     2 - 2 -4.2 +4.4 -8.7
  Nov 25, 2024 122   @ South Alabama L 63-84 11%     2 - 3 -16.0 -1.2 -16.3
  Nov 27, 2024 336   Western Illinois W 86-75 62%     3 - 3 -0.5 +11.9 -11.7
  Dec 05, 2024 285   Northwestern St. L 70-72 55%     3 - 4 0 - 1 -11.6 +1.6 -13.5
  Dec 07, 2024 355   Texas A&M - Commerce W 65-53 77%     4 - 4 1 - 1 -4.1 -7.8 +4.9
  Dec 10, 2024 1   @ Duke L 46-72 0.4%    4 - 5 +0.4 -8.0 +5.0
  Jan 04, 2025 251   @ Stephen F. Austin W 55-49 29%     5 - 5 2 - 1 +3.5 -4.7 +9.2
  Jan 06, 2025 222   @ Lamar L 58-72 23%     5 - 6 2 - 2 -14.8 -8.3 -7.7
  Jan 11, 2025 307   @ Houston Christian L 76-81 39%     5 - 7 2 - 3 -10.5 +10.9 -22.0
  Jan 13, 2025 212   Nicholls St. L 82-88 38%     5 - 8 2 - 4 -11.3 +7.0 -18.4
  Jan 18, 2025 183   TX A&M Corpus Christi L 63-69 32%     5 - 9 2 - 5 -9.5 -14.5 +5.1
  Jan 20, 2025 240   UT Rio Grande Valley L 78-85 45%     5 - 10 2 - 6 -14.0 +4.9 -19.3
  Jan 25, 2025 220   @ SE Louisiana L 67-75 22%    
  Jan 27, 2025 347   @ New Orleans W 76-75 52%    
  Feb 01, 2025 307   Houston Christian W 72-70 60%    
  Feb 03, 2025 74   @ McNeese St. L 61-80 4%    
  Feb 08, 2025 220   SE Louisiana L 70-72 43%    
  Feb 10, 2025 347   New Orleans W 79-73 74%    
  Feb 15, 2025 183   @ TX A&M Corpus Christi L 70-80 17%    
  Feb 17, 2025 240   @ UT Rio Grande Valley L 72-79 25%    
  Feb 22, 2025 251   Stephen F. Austin L 66-67 49%    
  Feb 24, 2025 222   Lamar L 69-71 42%    
  Mar 01, 2025 355   @ Texas A&M - Commerce W 72-69 59%    
  Mar 03, 2025 285   Northwestern St. W 70-69 57%    
Projected Record 10 - 17 7 - 13




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southland Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.1 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.3 3rd
4th 0.1 0.8 0.2 1.2 4th
5th 0.2 1.3 1.0 0.1 2.4 5th
6th 0.1 1.7 2.8 0.4 0.0 5.0 6th
7th 0.1 2.0 5.0 1.6 0.0 8.7 7th
8th 0.1 2.4 7.4 4.3 0.4 14.6 8th
9th 0.4 4.1 10.3 7.5 1.0 0.0 23.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.8 5.3 10.9 7.8 1.5 0.0 26.3 10th
11th 0.1 1.1 4.1 6.9 3.6 0.5 16.2 11th
12th 0.2 0.7 0.9 0.2 0.0 2.1 12th
Total 0.2 1.9 5.8 12.8 18.8 21.0 18.5 12.1 6.1 2.3 0.5 0.1 Total



Southland Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7 0.1% 0.1
12-8 0.5% 2.0% 2.0% 16.0 0.0 0.5
11-9 2.3% 0.9% 0.9% 15.0 0.0 2.3
10-10 6.1% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 6.1
9-11 12.1% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.1 12.0
8-12 18.5% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 18.5
7-13 21.0% 21.0
6-14 18.8% 18.8
5-15 12.8% 12.8
4-16 5.8% 5.8
3-17 1.9% 1.9
2-18 0.2% 0.2
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 15.9 0.0 0.1 99.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.2%