Incarnate Word
Southland
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-1.8#188
Expected Predictive Rating-0.9#185
Pace62.8#342
Improvement+1.5#81

Offense
Total Offense+1.4#129
First Shot+0.8#156
After Offensive Rebound+0.6#147
Layup/Dunks+0.8#150
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.2#38
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.3#307
Freethrows+1.0#122
Improvement+0.4#142

Defense
Total Defense-3.2#271
First Shot-2.8#267
After Offensive Rebounds-0.3#213
Layups/Dunks-4.3#315
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.3#275
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.1#30
Freethrows-2.3#313
Improvement+1.0#100
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 6.8% 8.7% 4.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.0 13.9 14.2
.500 or above 55.2% 67.7% 42.8%
.500 or above in Conference 73.4% 84.1% 62.8%
Conference Champion 5.9% 9.1% 2.9%
Last Place in Conference 2.1% 0.8% 3.5%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.2%
First Round6.7% 8.7% 4.7%
Second Round0.3% 0.5% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: New Orleans (Away) - 49.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 21 - 21 - 5
Quad 33 - 54 - 9
Quad 411 - 515 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 72 @Colorado St. L 64-98 12%     0 - 1 -23.1 -4.1 -21.2
  Sun, Nov 16 28 @Indiana L 61-69 5%     0 - 2 +8.9 +2.0 +6.2
  Thu, Nov 20 314 Southern Indiana W 87-81 74%     1 - 2 -2.6 +8.1 -10.9
  Sat, Nov 22 97 High Point L 80-91 25%     1 - 3 -5.8 +11.9 -18.4
  Mon, Dec 1 80 McNeese St. W 71-67 29%     2 - 3 1 - 0 +8.1 +5.7 +2.7
  Sat, Dec 6 254 @Nicholls St. L 67-74 52%     2 - 4 1 - 1 -9.2 -0.4 -9.3
  Mon, Dec 8 244 @New Orleans L 74-75 50%    
  Mon, Dec 15 47 @TCU L 63-79 7%    
  Sat, Dec 20 251 Northern Arizona W 74-68 72%    
  Tue, Dec 30 246 SE Louisiana W 71-65 71%    
  Sat, Jan 3 263 Houston Christian W 74-67 73%    
  Mon, Jan 5 209 @UT Rio Grande Valley L 74-76 45%    
  Sat, Jan 10 214 @Lamar L 65-66 45%    
  Mon, Jan 12 142 @Stephen F. Austin L 67-73 30%    
  Sat, Jan 17 302 Northwestern St. W 75-66 79%    
  Mon, Jan 19 300 East Texas A&M W 74-65 78%    
  Sat, Jan 24 210 TX A&M Corpus Christi W 71-67 65%    
  Mon, Jan 26 263 @Houston Christian W 71-70 52%    
  Sat, Jan 31 209 UT Rio Grande Valley W 77-73 65%    
  Mon, Feb 2 210 @TX A&M Corpus Christi L 68-70 45%    
  Sat, Feb 7 80 @McNeese St. L 63-75 15%    
  Mon, Feb 9 246 @SE Louisiana L 68-69 50%    
  Sat, Feb 14 254 Nicholls St. W 74-68 71%    
  Mon, Feb 16 244 New Orleans W 77-71 70%    
  Sat, Feb 21 300 @East Texas A&M W 71-68 60%    
  Mon, Feb 23 302 @Northwestern St. W 72-69 61%    
  Sat, Feb 28 214 Lamar W 68-63 65%    
  Mon, Mar 2 142 Stephen F. Austin W 70-69 50%    
Projected Record 14 - 14 12 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southland Finish

0-22 1-21 2-20 3-19 4-18 5-17 6-16 7-15 8-14 9-13 10-12 11-11 12-10 13-9 14-8 15-7 16-6 17-5 18-4 19-3 20-2 21-1 22-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.0 1.7 1.5 0.9 0.4 0.1 5.9 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 2.2 4.5 4.5 2.9 1.1 0.2 0.0 15.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.0 3.7 5.7 4.0 1.7 0.3 0.0 16.5 3rd
4th 0.0 0.9 3.8 5.7 3.1 0.8 0.1 0.0 14.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.6 3.8 5.2 2.3 0.4 0.0 12.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 2.5 4.4 1.9 0.3 0.0 9.4 6th
7th 0.2 1.7 3.8 1.9 0.3 0.0 7.8 7th
8th 0.1 1.0 2.9 1.9 0.3 0.0 6.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.7 2.1 1.7 0.3 0.0 4.8 9th
10th 0.1 0.5 1.3 1.3 0.3 0.0 3.4 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 0.7 0.2 0.0 2.2 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.2 12th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 1.6 2.9 4.8 6.9 9.2 11.4 12.2 12.4 11.5 9.5 7.3 4.9 2.7 1.1 0.4 0.1 Total



Southland Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
22-0
21-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1
20-2 93.2% 0.4    0.3 0.0
19-3 81.8% 0.9    0.7 0.2 0.0
18-4 56.9% 1.5    0.9 0.6 0.0
17-5 33.9% 1.7    0.8 0.7 0.1 0.0
16-6 14.1% 1.0    0.4 0.5 0.2 0.0
15-7 3.2% 0.3    0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
14-8 0.6% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-9 0.0% 0.0    0.0
12-10 0.0%
11-11 0.0%
Total 5.9% 5.9 3.2 2.2 0.5 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
22-0
21-1 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
20-2 0.4% 35.0% 35.0% 12.4 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3
19-3 1.1% 27.6% 27.6% 12.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.8
18-4 2.7% 29.3% 29.3% 13.2 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.0 1.9
17-5 4.9% 21.3% 21.3% 13.6 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.1 0.0 3.9
16-6 7.3% 17.7% 17.7% 13.8 0.0 0.4 0.6 0.2 0.0 6.0
15-7 9.5% 12.0% 12.0% 14.2 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.4 0.0 8.4
14-8 11.5% 7.3% 7.3% 14.4 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.1 10.6
13-9 12.4% 4.1% 4.1% 14.8 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 11.9
12-10 12.2% 2.8% 2.8% 15.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 11.8
11-11 11.4% 1.6% 1.6% 15.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 11.2
10-12 9.2% 1.2% 1.2% 15.9 0.0 0.1 9.0
9-13 6.9% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 6.8
8-14 4.8% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 4.8
7-15 2.9% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 2.9
6-16 1.6% 1.6
5-17 0.7% 0.7
4-18 0.4% 0.4
3-19 0.1% 0.1
2-20 0.0% 0.0
1-21
0-22
Total 100% 6.8% 6.8% 0.0% 14.0 0.0 0.5 1.6 2.6 1.6 0.4 93.3 0.0%