Northwestern St.
Southland
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-6.3#272
Expected Predictive Rating-5.0#252
Pace62.9#320
Improvement-1.2#249

Offense
Total Offense-4.7#306
First Shot-5.5#323
After Offensive Rebound+0.8#132
Layup/Dunks-2.3#267
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.7#23
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.8#297
Freethrows-3.1#341
Improvement-1.3#250

Defense
Total Defense-1.6#218
First Shot-2.5#256
After Offensive Rebounds+0.9#106
Layups/Dunks+1.2#125
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.8#267
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.5#282
Freethrows-0.4#211
Improvement+0.1#182
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.8% 0.8% 0.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.9 15.9 16.0
.500 or above 0.4% 0.5% 0.1%
.500 or above in Conference 67.5% 84.1% 38.4%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.6% 0.6% 0.6%
First Round0.5% 0.5% 0.3%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: New Orleans (Away) - 63.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 4
Quad 20 - 30 - 7
Quad 33 - 53 - 12
Quad 48 - 612 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2024 10   @ Texas Tech L 65-86 1%     0 - 1 +0.0 +2.5 -3.1
  Nov 11, 2024 50   @ Oklahoma L 57-73 4%     0 - 2 -2.6 -8.7 +5.7
  Nov 16, 2024 178   @ Rice L 75-77 OT 23%     0 - 3 -0.4 +0.2 -0.5
  Nov 22, 2024 336   Louisiana Monroe L 63-65 77%     0 - 4 -16.0 -10.6 -5.5
  Nov 24, 2024 134   North Alabama W 71-58 31%     1 - 4 +11.8 +3.8 +9.5
  Nov 29, 2024 72   @ LSU L 53-77 7%     1 - 5 -13.6 -13.4 -0.3
  Dec 05, 2024 281   @ Incarnate Word W 72-70 42%     2 - 5 1 - 0 -2.1 +4.7 -6.6
  Dec 07, 2024 295   @ Houston Christian W 64-57 45%     3 - 5 2 - 0 +2.1 -1.9 +5.1
  Dec 14, 2024 112   @ California L 66-84 13%     3 - 6 -12.2 -0.3 -13.5
  Dec 29, 2024 36   @ Texas L 53-77 3%     3 - 7 -8.7 -2.7 -10.6
  Jan 04, 2025 192   Nicholls St. W 68-66 43%     4 - 7 3 - 0 -2.4 -0.1 -2.1
  Jan 06, 2025 86   McNeese St. L 69-92 16%     4 - 8 3 - 1 -18.9 +4.4 -25.4
  Jan 11, 2025 339   Texas A&M - Commerce W 75-67 77%     5 - 8 4 - 1 -6.0 -1.7 -4.2
  Jan 13, 2025 199   @ TX A&M Corpus Christi L 64-73 26%     5 - 9 4 - 2 -8.6 -3.4 -5.8
  Jan 18, 2025 213   SE Louisiana L 64-65 46%     5 - 10 4 - 3 -6.2 -0.1 -6.3
  Jan 20, 2025 353   New Orleans W 73-61 81%     6 - 10 5 - 3 -3.7 -5.1 +1.9
  Jan 25, 2025 249   @ Stephen F. Austin W 57-54 OT 35%     7 - 10 6 - 3 +0.7 -16.1 +16.6
  Jan 27, 2025 194   @ Lamar L 59-69 25%     7 - 11 6 - 4 -9.3 -3.2 -7.6
  Feb 01, 2025 339   @ Texas A&M - Commerce L 50-72 60%     7 - 12 6 - 5 -31.0 -21.7 -10.9
  Feb 03, 2025 262   UT Rio Grande Valley W 79-63 57%     8 - 12 7 - 5 +8.0 -3.5 +10.3
  Feb 08, 2025 86   @ McNeese St. L 50-65 8%     8 - 13 7 - 6 -5.8 -13.5 +6.1
  Feb 10, 2025 192   @ Nicholls St. W 72-60 25%     9 - 13 8 - 6 +12.7 +2.8 +10.4
  Feb 15, 2025 249   Stephen F. Austin L 68-70 54%     9 - 14 8 - 7 -9.4 +0.7 -10.3
  Feb 17, 2025 194   Lamar L 65-75 43%     9 - 15 8 - 8 -14.4 +2.7 -18.8
  Feb 22, 2025 353   @ New Orleans W 73-69 64%    
  Feb 24, 2025 213   @ SE Louisiana L 65-71 27%    
  Mar 01, 2025 295   Houston Christian W 68-64 65%    
  Mar 03, 2025 281   @ Incarnate Word L 66-68 40%    
Projected Record 11 - 17 10 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southland Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 2nd
3rd 0.6 0.6 3rd
4th 0.7 3.1 3.8 4th
5th 1.6 10.4 1.9 13.9 5th
6th 4.9 27.8 12.5 0.1 45.3 6th
7th 1.0 16.4 8.5 0.2 26.0 7th
8th 3.7 4.7 0.0 8.5 8th
9th 1.6 0.1 1.7 9th
10th 0.2 0.2 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 6.5 26.0 37.9 23.8 5.7 Total



Southland Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8 5.7% 1.0% 1.0% 15.5 0.0 0.0 5.7
11-9 23.8% 1.2% 1.2% 15.9 0.0 0.3 23.5
10-10 37.9% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.3 37.7
9-11 26.0% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.1 25.9
8-12 6.5% 6.5
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 0.8% 0.8% 0.0% 15.9 0.1 0.7 99.3 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.8%
Lose Out 5.4%