LSU
Southeastern
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+9.7#55
Expected Predictive Rating+12.1#49
Pace73.0#79
Improvement+0.1#171

Offense
Total Offense+4.3#66
First Shot+0.7#155
After Offensive Rebound+3.5#19
Layup/Dunks+3.9#54
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.2#249
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.1#276
Freethrows+1.1#108
Improvement-0.2#187

Defense
Total Defense+5.4#45
First Shot+4.8#45
After Offensive Rebounds+0.6#127
Layups/Dunks+2.4#84
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.4#302
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.4#79
Freethrows+1.5#78
Improvement+0.3#151
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 1.4% 2.0% 0.6%
Top 6 Seed 6.6% 9.3% 2.9%
NCAA Tourney Bid 35.9% 43.8% 24.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 35.7% 43.6% 24.6%
Average Seed 8.4 8.3 8.9
.500 or above 75.6% 84.3% 63.4%
.500 or above in Conference 19.3% 26.1% 9.6%
Conference Champion 0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 20.9% 12.9% 32.2%
First Four7.2% 7.7% 6.5%
First Round32.2% 39.9% 21.3%
Second Round15.6% 19.6% 9.8%
Sweet Sixteen4.4% 5.6% 2.7%
Elite Eight1.5% 2.0% 0.9%
Final Four0.5% 0.7% 0.2%
Championship Game0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Vanderbilt (Home) - 58.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 92 - 9
Quad 1b2 - 35 - 12
Quad 24 - 29 - 14
Quad 31 - 010 - 14
Quad 48 - 018 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2024 333   Louisiana Monroe W 95-60 97%     1 - 0 +21.5 +12.4 +7.4
  Nov 10, 2024 290   Alabama St. W 74-61 96%     2 - 0 +3.0 -7.3 +9.9
  Nov 14, 2024 82   @ Kansas St. W 76-65 49%     3 - 0 +20.9 +9.9 +11.2
  Nov 19, 2024 298   Charleston Southern W 77-68 96%     4 - 0 -1.3 +1.6 -2.6
  Nov 22, 2024 29   Pittsburgh L 63-74 37%     4 - 1 +2.2 -1.8 +3.6
  Nov 24, 2024 80   Central Florida W 109-102 3OT 60%     5 - 1 +14.2 +10.0 +2.3
  Nov 29, 2024 292   Northwestern St. W 77-53 96%     6 - 1 +14.0 +0.1 +13.9
  Dec 03, 2024 73   Florida St. W 85-75 68%     7 - 1 +14.7 +11.2 +3.1
  Dec 08, 2024 161   Florida Gulf Coast W 80-71 88%     8 - 1 +5.8 +7.4 -1.3
  Dec 14, 2024 40   SMU L 64-74 43%     8 - 2 +1.5 -7.8 +9.7
  Dec 17, 2024 350   Stetson W 99-53 98%     9 - 2 +30.9 +17.4 +13.4
  Dec 22, 2024 344   New Orleans W 86-70 98%     10 - 2 +1.3 +0.0 +0.3
  Dec 29, 2024 364   Mississippi Valley W 110-45 99.6%    11 - 2 +38.9 +25.5 +12.7
  Jan 04, 2025 49   Vanderbilt W 80-78 59%    
  Jan 07, 2025 52   @ Missouri L 75-78 38%    
  Jan 11, 2025 35   @ Mississippi L 72-77 30%    
  Jan 14, 2025 30   Arkansas L 76-77 48%    
  Jan 18, 2025 23   @ Texas A&M L 67-75 23%    
  Jan 25, 2025 8   @ Alabama L 78-89 15%    
  Jan 29, 2025 1   Auburn L 74-85 16%    
  Feb 01, 2025 32   Texas W 74-73 50%    
  Feb 05, 2025 45   @ Georgia L 72-76 34%    
  Feb 08, 2025 35   Mississippi W 75-74 52%    
  Feb 12, 2025 30   @ Arkansas L 74-80 28%    
  Feb 15, 2025 34   @ Oklahoma L 72-78 30%    
  Feb 18, 2025 63   South Carolina W 74-70 64%    
  Feb 22, 2025 7   Florida L 75-82 28%    
  Feb 25, 2025 3   Tennessee L 67-74 25%    
  Mar 01, 2025 25   @ Mississippi St. L 71-79 25%    
  Mar 04, 2025 18   @ Kentucky L 77-86 22%    
  Mar 08, 2025 23   Texas A&M L 70-72 44%    
Projected Record 17 - 14 6 - 12




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.6 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.0 1.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 1.1 0.6 0.1 2.2 4th
5th 0.2 1.3 1.0 0.1 0.0 2.7 5th
6th 0.0 1.4 2.0 0.4 0.0 3.9 6th
7th 0.6 3.0 1.1 0.1 4.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 2.6 2.8 0.3 0.0 5.9 8th
9th 0.0 1.4 4.2 1.3 0.1 7.0 9th
10th 0.3 3.6 2.9 0.2 7.0 10th
11th 0.1 2.0 5.4 1.0 0.0 8.6 11th
12th 0.0 1.2 5.5 2.9 0.2 9.9 12th
13th 0.0 0.7 4.0 5.3 0.8 10.8 13th
14th 0.0 0.4 3.1 5.5 2.0 0.1 11.2 14th
15th 0.0 0.7 2.7 5.4 3.2 0.3 0.0 12.3 15th
16th 0.3 1.2 3.5 4.1 2.5 0.5 0.0 12.1 16th
Total 0.3 1.3 4.1 7.2 11.7 14.5 15.6 14.5 11.5 9.0 5.1 3.0 1.4 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
16-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0
15-3 100.0% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
14-4 27.3% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
13-5 6.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 2.7% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.2% 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 0.0% 0.0
16-2 0.0% 0.0
15-3 0.1% 100.0% 100.0% 2.3 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-4 0.2% 100.0% 8.1% 91.9% 3.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
13-5 0.6% 100.0% 3.9% 96.1% 4.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 100.0%
12-6 1.4% 100.0% 3.2% 96.8% 5.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 100.0%
11-7 3.0% 100.0% 2.5% 97.5% 6.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.1 0.7 0.2 0.0 100.0%
10-8 5.1% 99.1% 1.8% 97.4% 7.1 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.1 1.6 1.2 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.1%
9-9 9.0% 96.0% 0.8% 95.2% 8.1 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.8 2.8 2.1 0.8 0.2 0.4 96.0%
8-10 11.5% 77.3% 0.2% 77.1% 9.4 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.4 2.8 2.8 1.4 0.0 2.6 77.3%
7-11 14.5% 42.9% 0.0% 42.9% 10.4 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.6 3.5 0.2 8.3 42.9%
6-12 15.6% 11.4% 11.4% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.2 0.3 0.0 13.8 11.4%
5-13 14.5% 1.0% 1.0% 11.1 0.1 0.0 14.3 1.0%
4-14 11.7% 11.7
3-15 7.2% 7.2
2-16 4.1% 4.1
1-17 1.3% 1.3
0-18 0.3% 0.3
Total 100% 35.9% 0.4% 35.6% 8.4 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.8 3.4 4.7 5.8 6.2 5.5 6.4 0.6 0.0 64.1 35.7%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.3%