Kansas St.
Big 12
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+6.4#89
Expected Predictive Rating+1.9#134
Pace68.3#192
Improvement-0.7#218

Offense
Total Offense+3.4#91
First Shot+1.7#122
After Offensive Rebound+1.7#85
Layup/Dunks+2.0#106
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.9#289
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.8#88
Freethrows-1.2#261
Improvement-0.2#191

Defense
Total Defense+3.0#92
First Shot+3.2#82
After Offensive Rebounds-0.2#209
Layups/Dunks+2.3#89
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.6#139
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.0#235
Freethrows+1.3#95
Improvement-0.5#211
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.4% 1.8% 0.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.4% 1.8% 0.2%
Average Seed 10.4 10.5 10.4
.500 or above 2.3% 8.0% 1.4%
.500 or above in Conference 2.0% 6.9% 1.2%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 25.9% 11.7% 28.2%
First Four0.2% 1.1% 0.1%
First Round0.3% 1.2% 0.1%
Second Round0.1% 0.3% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Baylor (Away) - 13.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 91 - 9
Quad 1b1 - 42 - 12
Quad 22 - 54 - 17
Quad 33 - 37 - 20
Quad 44 - 012 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 05, 2024 343   New Orleans W 89-65 96%     1 - 0 +9.5 +12.2 -1.6
  Nov 09, 2024 173   Cleveland St. W 77-64 82%     2 - 0 +9.8 +3.7 +6.2
  Nov 14, 2024 63   LSU L 65-76 52%     2 - 1 -5.1 -2.7 -2.7
  Nov 19, 2024 364   Mississippi Valley W 74-56 99.5%    3 - 1 -10.0 -6.9 -2.0
  Nov 22, 2024 119   George Washington W 83-71 64%     4 - 1 +14.7 +9.1 +5.1
  Nov 24, 2024 92   Liberty L 65-67 51%     4 - 2 +4.1 +3.1 +0.9
  Nov 25, 2024 199   Longwood W 80-64 78%     5 - 2 +14.3 +6.2 +8.1
  Dec 01, 2024 363   Arkansas Pine Bluff W 120-73 99%     6 - 2 +25.8 +18.8 +1.1
  Dec 07, 2024 16   @ St. John's L 71-88 12%     6 - 3 +2.2 +4.4 -0.8
  Dec 17, 2024 80   Drake L 70-73 OT 58%     6 - 4 +1.4 +4.3 -3.0
  Dec 21, 2024 138   @ Wichita St. L 65-84 58%     6 - 5 -14.6 -6.3 -8.2
  Dec 30, 2024 39   Cincinnati W 70-67 39%     7 - 5 1 - 0 +12.1 +7.4 +4.8
  Jan 04, 2025 62   @ TCU L 62-63 31%     7 - 6 1 - 1 +10.4 +2.1 +8.3
  Jan 07, 2025 101   @ Oklahoma St. L 66-79 46%     7 - 7 1 - 2 -5.7 -0.5 -5.5
  Jan 11, 2025 3   Houston L 57-87 13%     7 - 8 1 - 3 -11.2 -2.7 -9.8
  Jan 14, 2025 17   Texas Tech L 57-61 24%     7 - 9 1 - 4 +9.7 -2.3 +11.5
  Jan 18, 2025 6   @ Kansas L 74-84 8%     7 - 10 1 - 5 +12.3 +21.2 -9.9
  Jan 22, 2025 22   @ Baylor L 66-78 14%    
  Jan 25, 2025 32   West Virginia L 66-70 36%    
  Jan 29, 2025 101   Oklahoma St. W 77-72 67%    
  Feb 01, 2025 4   @ Iowa St. L 64-81 5%    
  Feb 04, 2025 64   @ Arizona St. L 70-75 31%    
  Feb 08, 2025 6   Kansas L 67-77 17%    
  Feb 11, 2025 13   Arizona L 73-81 24%    
  Feb 15, 2025 44   @ BYU L 70-78 22%    
  Feb 17, 2025 69   @ Utah L 72-76 33%    
  Feb 23, 2025 64   Arizona St. W 73-72 53%    
  Feb 26, 2025 71   @ Central Florida L 74-78 34%    
  Mar 02, 2025 94   Colorado W 73-70 63%    
  Mar 05, 2025 39   @ Cincinnati L 63-71 21%    
  Mar 08, 2025 4   Iowa St. L 67-78 16%    
Projected Record 11 - 20 5 - 15




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big 12 Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.8 7th
8th 0.2 0.8 0.7 0.1 1.8 8th
9th 0.1 1.3 1.4 0.2 3.1 9th
10th 0.0 1.3 2.9 0.7 0.0 5.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.8 4.1 2.6 0.2 0.0 7.7 11th
12th 0.6 4.8 5.3 0.8 0.0 11.5 12th
13th 0.4 4.6 8.4 1.9 0.1 15.4 13th
14th 0.0 0.6 4.9 9.9 4.3 0.3 19.9 14th
15th 0.0 0.7 4.9 9.3 5.1 0.5 20.5 15th
16th 0.8 3.9 5.9 2.9 0.5 0.0 14.0 16th
Total 0.8 4.6 11.3 17.4 20.7 18.8 13.1 8.0 3.3 1.4 0.5 0.1 0.0 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7 0.0% 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.5% 32.6% 32.6% 10.7 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 32.6%
10-10 1.4% 9.2% 9.2% 10.9 0.0 0.1 0.0 1.3 9.2%
9-11 3.3% 0.6% 0.6% 11.0 0.0 3.3 0.6%
8-12 8.0% 8.0
7-13 13.1% 13.1
6-14 18.8% 18.8
5-15 20.7% 20.7
4-16 17.4% 17.4
3-17 11.3% 11.3
2-18 4.6% 4.6
1-19 0.8% 0.8
0-20
Total 100% 0.4% 0.0% 0.4% 10.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.0 99.6 0.4%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.8%