Kansas St.
Big 12
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+10.6#56
Expected Predictive Rating+8.8#67
Pace68.3#177
Improvement+5.1#21

Offense
Total Offense+4.8#71
First Shot+2.8#98
After Offensive Rebound+1.9#70
Layup/Dunks+2.5#92
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.9#285
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.2#83
Freethrows-1.0#249
Improvement+1.0#132

Defense
Total Defense+5.8#43
First Shot+5.5#35
After Offensive Rebounds+0.3#154
Layups/Dunks+3.0#75
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.9#104
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.1#200
Freethrows+1.6#75
Improvement+4.1#17
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 13.7% 17.7% 4.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 13.3% 17.3% 4.4%
Average Seed 10.5 10.5 10.8
.500 or above 58.0% 71.0% 29.1%
.500 or above in Conference 55.2% 68.8% 24.9%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four8.4% 10.7% 3.4%
First Round9.6% 12.5% 3.2%
Second Round3.4% 4.5% 0.9%
Sweet Sixteen0.9% 1.2% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.3% 0.4% 0.1%
Final Four0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Arizona St. (Home) - 69.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 72 - 7
Quad 1b2 - 34 - 10
Quad 24 - 58 - 15
Quad 34 - 212 - 16
Quad 45 - 016 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 05, 2024 353   New Orleans W 89-65 98%     1 - 0 +8.3 +11.7 -2.4
  Nov 09, 2024 170   Cleveland St. W 77-64 89%     2 - 0 +10.0 +5.2 +4.9
  Nov 14, 2024 72   LSU L 65-76 69%     2 - 1 -5.7 -2.8 -3.1
  Nov 19, 2024 364   Mississippi Valley W 74-56 99.8%    3 - 1 -12.9 -8.7 -3.2
  Nov 22, 2024 117   George Washington W 83-71 77%     4 - 1 +14.8 +9.7 +4.6
  Nov 24, 2024 77   Liberty L 65-67 62%     4 - 2 +5.4 +4.2 +1.0
  Nov 25, 2024 200   Longwood W 80-64 88%     5 - 2 +13.8 +4.8 +9.0
  Dec 01, 2024 363   Arkansas Pine Bluff W 120-73 99%     6 - 2 +24.7 +20.6 -1.8
  Dec 07, 2024 14   @ St. John's L 71-88 18%     6 - 3 +3.4 +6.8 -2.0
  Dec 17, 2024 74   Drake L 70-73 OT 70%     6 - 4 +2.2 +3.6 -1.5
  Dec 21, 2024 115   @ Wichita St. L 65-84 69%     6 - 5 -13.6 -4.6 -8.9
  Dec 30, 2024 46   Cincinnati W 70-67 57%     7 - 5 1 - 0 +11.7 +5.3 +6.5
  Jan 04, 2025 64   @ TCU L 62-63 49%     7 - 6 1 - 1 +9.9 +2.7 +7.2
  Jan 07, 2025 92   @ Oklahoma St. L 66-79 59%     7 - 7 1 - 2 -4.9 -0.5 -4.7
  Jan 11, 2025 3   Houston L 57-87 19%     7 - 8 1 - 3 -10.1 -3.7 -7.8
  Jan 14, 2025 10   Texas Tech L 57-61 30%     7 - 9 1 - 4 +11.9 -1.5 +12.8
  Jan 18, 2025 19   @ Kansas L 74-84 22%     7 - 10 1 - 5 +8.7 +19.7 -11.9
  Jan 22, 2025 24   @ Baylor L 62-70 24%     7 - 11 1 - 6 +9.9 +9.0 -0.8
  Jan 25, 2025 41   West Virginia W 73-60 54%     8 - 11 2 - 6 +22.5 +12.0 +11.3
  Jan 29, 2025 92   Oklahoma St. W 85-57 76%     9 - 11 3 - 6 +31.0 +12.4 +17.9
  Feb 01, 2025 9   @ Iowa St. W 80-61 16%     10 - 11 4 - 6 +40.2 +18.6 +21.6
  Feb 04, 2025 65   @ Arizona St. W 71-70 49%     11 - 11 5 - 6 +11.9 +10.2 +1.7
  Feb 08, 2025 19   Kansas W 81-73 38%     12 - 11 6 - 6 +21.6 +14.1 +7.2
  Feb 11, 2025 8   Arizona W 73-70 29%     13 - 11 7 - 6 +19.2 +2.8 +16.2
  Feb 15, 2025 26   @ BYU L 65-80 26%     13 - 12 7 - 7 +2.4 +2.1 -0.5
  Feb 17, 2025 68   @ Utah L 69-74 49%     13 - 13 7 - 8 +5.8 +2.8 +3.0
  Feb 23, 2025 65   Arizona St. W 75-70 69%    
  Feb 26, 2025 81   @ Central Florida W 79-78 52%    
  Mar 02, 2025 91   Colorado W 74-66 77%    
  Mar 05, 2025 46   @ Cincinnati L 66-69 36%    
  Mar 08, 2025 9   Iowa St. L 69-75 32%    
Projected Record 16 - 15 10 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big 12 Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 0.4 4th
5th 0.1 2.9 2.8 5.8 5th
6th 0.0 1.6 7.9 0.8 10.4 6th
7th 0.3 9.4 6.4 0.1 16.2 7th
8th 4.4 14.1 1.8 20.4 8th
9th 0.7 13.4 6.1 0.2 20.3 9th
10th 0.1 4.8 10.6 0.7 16.1 10th
11th 0.6 5.7 1.4 7.7 11th
12th 1.1 1.5 0.0 2.6 12th
13th 0.3 0.0 0.3 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 14th
15th 15th
16th 16th
Total 2.1 12.6 30.1 31.9 19.2 4.1 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8 4.1% 70.7% 1.2% 69.4% 9.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.0 1.2 70.3%
11-9 19.2% 38.3% 0.6% 37.6% 10.6 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.4 4.8 0.4 11.8 37.9%
10-10 31.9% 9.6% 0.5% 9.1% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.9 0.6 0.0 28.9 9.1%
9-11 30.1% 1.4% 0.3% 1.0% 11.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 29.7 1.0%
8-12 12.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 11.5 0.0 0.0 12.6 0.1%
7-13 2.1% 2.1
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 13.7% 0.4% 13.3% 10.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.3 2.7 7.9 1.2 0.0 86.3 13.3%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.2% 100.0% 8.3 23.8 38.1 23.8 14.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.7% 95.4% 8.9 3.1 33.8 33.8 20.0 4.6
Lose Out 1.0%