Kansas
Big 12
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+16.1#19
Expected Predictive Rating+15.3#26
Pace71.1#99
Improvement-6.3#356

Offense
Total Offense+5.9#51
First Shot+6.7#32
After Offensive Rebound-0.9#243
Layup/Dunks+8.9#2
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.2#179
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.2#175
Freethrows-2.2#310
Improvement-3.9#337

Defense
Total Defense+10.3#5
First Shot+6.6#26
After Offensive Rebounds+3.7#3
Layups/Dunks+7.8#12
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.3#292
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.7#227
Freethrows+0.8#120
Improvement-2.4#306
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 1.2% 1.3% 0.1%
Top 4 Seed 14.4% 15.4% 5.5%
Top 6 Seed 50.8% 53.1% 30.2%
NCAA Tourney Bid 98.3% 98.7% 95.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 98.2% 98.6% 94.8%
Average Seed 6.5 6.4 7.5
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 92.0% 94.9% 66.4%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four1.3% 0.8% 5.7%
First Round97.7% 98.4% 91.9%
Second Round69.7% 70.8% 60.1%
Sweet Sixteen30.3% 31.2% 21.9%
Elite Eight12.4% 12.9% 8.1%
Final Four4.8% 5.1% 2.8%
Championship Game1.8% 1.9% 1.0%
National Champion0.6% 0.6% 0.4%

Next Game: Oklahoma St. (Home) - 89.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 6 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a4 - 84 - 8
Quad 1b3 - 26 - 10
Quad 25 - 211 - 12
Quad 36 - 017 - 12
Quad 44 - 021 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 305   Howard W 87-57 99%     1 - 0 +19.1 +3.8 +14.8
  Nov 08, 2024 40   North Carolina W 92-89 74%     2 - 0 +12.6 +14.1 -1.8
  Nov 12, 2024 12   Michigan St. W 77-69 42%     3 - 0 +26.2 +5.5 +19.9
  Nov 16, 2024 198   Oakland W 78-57 96%     4 - 0 +16.4 +10.6 +8.1
  Nov 19, 2024 116   UNC Wilmington W 84-66 92%     5 - 0 +18.3 +9.4 +8.9
  Nov 26, 2024 2   Duke W 75-72 24%     6 - 0 +26.6 +14.6 +12.0
  Nov 30, 2024 159   Furman W 86-51 95%     7 - 0 +32.6 +16.5 +18.2
  Dec 04, 2024 31   @ Creighton L 63-76 47%     7 - 1 +4.0 -1.0 +5.0
  Dec 08, 2024 15   @ Missouri L 67-76 35%     7 - 2 +11.2 -1.6 +13.2
  Dec 14, 2024 103   North Carolina St. W 75-60 91%     8 - 2 +16.7 +13.4 +5.2
  Dec 22, 2024 185   Brown W 87-53 96%     9 - 2 +30.0 +12.0 +17.8
  Dec 31, 2024 41   West Virginia L 61-62 74%     9 - 3 0 - 1 +8.5 +5.4 +2.9
  Jan 05, 2025 81   @ Central Florida W 99-48 74%     10 - 3 1 - 1 +60.6 +20.1 +35.8
  Jan 08, 2025 65   Arizona St. W 74-55 83%     11 - 3 2 - 1 +24.8 +8.4 +17.2
  Jan 11, 2025 46   @ Cincinnati W 54-40 59%     12 - 3 3 - 1 +27.8 -2.0 +31.8
  Jan 15, 2025 9   @ Iowa St. L 57-74 31%     12 - 4 3 - 2 +4.2 -5.7 +10.2
  Jan 18, 2025 56   Kansas St. W 84-74 78%     13 - 4 4 - 2 +18.0 +23.6 -4.7
  Jan 22, 2025 64   @ TCU W 74-61 69%     14 - 4 5 - 2 +23.9 +12.9 +11.5
  Jan 25, 2025 3   Houston L 86-92 2OT 36%     14 - 5 5 - 3 +13.9 +12.5 +2.1
  Jan 28, 2025 81   Central Florida W 91-87 86%     15 - 5 6 - 3 +8.5 +11.6 -3.4
  Feb 01, 2025 24   @ Baylor L 70-81 43%     15 - 6 6 - 4 +6.9 -2.0 +9.8
  Feb 03, 2025 9   Iowa St. W 69-52 50%     16 - 6 7 - 4 +33.1 +13.5 +21.7
  Feb 08, 2025 56   @ Kansas St. L 73-81 62%     16 - 7 7 - 5 +5.1 +4.5 +0.9
  Feb 11, 2025 91   Colorado W 71-59 89%     17 - 7 8 - 5 +15.0 +7.3 +8.7
  Feb 15, 2025 68   @ Utah L 67-74 70%     17 - 8 8 - 6 +3.8 +0.9 +2.9
  Feb 18, 2025 26   @ BYU L 57-91 45%     17 - 9 8 - 7 -16.6 -10.9 -5.0
  Feb 22, 2025 92   Oklahoma St. W 81-68 90%    
  Feb 24, 2025 91   @ Colorado W 74-66 76%    
  Mar 01, 2025 10   Texas Tech W 73-72 53%    
  Mar 03, 2025 3   @ Houston L 61-70 20%    
  Mar 08, 2025 8   Arizona L 74-75 52%    
Projected Record 20 - 11 11 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big 12 Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 0.4 3rd
4th 0.0 1.5 1.7 3.3 4th
5th 0.2 7.1 16.9 2.4 26.6 5th
6th 0.0 2.8 18.1 5.3 0.0 26.3 6th
7th 0.4 12.2 10.8 0.4 23.8 7th
8th 1.9 8.5 1.0 11.4 8th
9th 0.1 3.2 2.2 0.0 5.6 9th
10th 0.2 1.7 0.2 2.2 10th
11th 0.3 0.2 0.4 11th
12th 0.1 0.1 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
15th 15th
16th 16th
Total 0.7 7.4 26.2 37.2 24.1 4.5 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7 4.5% 100.0% 9.4% 90.6% 3.7 0.2 0.6 1.1 1.4 1.0 0.2 0.0 100.0%
12-8 24.1% 100.0% 7.2% 92.8% 5.1 0.1 0.3 2.3 5.0 7.4 5.9 2.6 0.5 0.0 0.0 100.0%
11-9 37.2% 99.7% 5.0% 94.7% 6.4 0.0 0.8 2.2 6.0 10.2 10.4 5.4 1.9 0.3 0.0 0.1 99.7%
10-10 26.2% 98.5% 3.6% 94.9% 7.6 0.1 0.3 1.5 3.9 6.2 7.1 4.8 1.7 0.2 0.4 98.5%
9-11 7.4% 87.5% 1.9% 85.6% 9.4 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.7 1.9 1.4 0.0 0.9 87.3%
8-12 0.7% 60.3% 4.4% 55.9% 10.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.3 58.5%
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 98.3% 5.1% 93.2% 6.5 0.2 1.0 4.3 9.0 16.0 20.4 19.5 13.7 8.4 4.1 1.7 0.0 1.7 98.2%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.4% 100.0% 1.9 31.0 54.8 11.9 2.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.5% 100.0% 3.1 31.1 40.0 15.6 11.1 2.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.2% 100.0% 3.6 1.6 11.5 29.5 38.5 18.0 0.8