Furman
Southern
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+0.9#151
Expected Predictive Rating+6.2#90
Pace64.6#284
Improvement-5.9#358

Offense
Total Offense+0.5#165
First Shot-0.7#197
After Offensive Rebound+1.2#112
Layup/Dunks-3.7#301
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.9#233
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.9#45
Freethrows-1.0#248
Improvement-1.6#272

Defense
Total Defense+0.4#157
First Shot+2.3#107
After Offensive Rebounds-2.0#326
Layups/Dunks-3.3#304
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.2#291
3 Pt Jumpshots+7.7#1
Freethrows-0.8#249
Improvement-4.3#352
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 12.0% 12.8% 9.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.5 13.4 13.8
.500 or above 99.9% 100.0% 99.7%
.500 or above in Conference 86.8% 91.8% 69.0%
Conference Champion 4.9% 6.1% 0.6%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round12.0% 12.8% 9.2%
Second Round0.8% 0.9% 0.6%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: VMI (Away) - 78.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 21 - 21 - 4
Quad 39 - 410 - 8
Quad 411 - 120 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2024 139   @ Belmont W 76-74 37%     1 - 0 +6.3 +2.7 +3.6
  Nov 11, 2024 185   Jacksonville W 78-69 68%     2 - 0 +5.2 +2.6 +2.2
  Nov 15, 2024 148   Tulane W 75-67 60%     3 - 0 +6.4 +5.4 +1.5
  Nov 23, 2024 279   @ Charleston Southern W 67-46 68%     4 - 0 +17.1 -2.4 +20.9
  Nov 26, 2024 150   Seattle W 61-56 50%     5 - 0 +6.0 -2.9 +9.5
  Nov 30, 2024 6   @ Kansas L 51-86 3%     5 - 1 -12.7 -5.7 -9.2
  Dec 04, 2024 168   @ Florida Gulf Coast W 76-73 44%     6 - 1 +5.4 +8.6 -3.0
  Dec 07, 2024 122   Princeton W 69-63 54%     7 - 1 +5.9 -0.5 +6.8
  Dec 14, 2024 243   South Carolina St. W 68-64 78%     8 - 1 -3.2 +3.0 -5.5
  Dec 21, 2024 215   @ Harvard W 77-63 54%     9 - 1 +13.8 +13.9 +1.5
  Jan 01, 2025 342   @ Western Carolina W 90-61 82%     10 - 1 1 - 0 +20.2 +15.6 +4.6
  Jan 04, 2025 129   @ UNC Greensboro L 67-84 35%     10 - 2 1 - 1 -12.2 +3.9 -18.0
  Jan 08, 2025 352   @ The Citadel W 67-63 OT 85%     11 - 2 2 - 1 -6.2 -12.4 +6.0
  Jan 13, 2025 130   Wofford L 62-81 57%     11 - 3 2 - 2 -19.8 -5.6 -16.8
  Jan 15, 2025 146   East Tennessee St. W 73-70 60%     12 - 3 3 - 2 +1.4 +3.8 -2.2
  Jan 18, 2025 156   Chattanooga L 71-75 62%     12 - 4 3 - 3 -6.3 -4.0 -2.5
  Jan 22, 2025 327   @ VMI W 74-66 78%    
  Jan 25, 2025 233   @ Mercer W 73-71 57%    
  Jan 29, 2025 115   Samford W 76-75 54%    
  Feb 01, 2025 146   @ East Tennessee St. L 68-71 38%    
  Feb 05, 2025 342   Western Carolina W 78-63 93%    
  Feb 08, 2025 156   @ Chattanooga L 72-74 41%    
  Feb 12, 2025 233   Mercer W 76-68 77%    
  Feb 15, 2025 129   UNC Greensboro W 68-66 56%    
  Feb 19, 2025 115   @ Samford L 73-78 32%    
  Feb 22, 2025 327   VMI W 77-63 90%    
  Feb 26, 2025 352   The Citadel W 75-58 94%    
  Mar 01, 2025 130   @ Wofford L 67-71 36%    
Projected Record 19 - 9 10 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.2 1.9 2.3 0.6 4.9 1st
2nd 0.1 3.1 4.5 0.8 8.6 2nd
3rd 0.1 3.3 8.0 1.7 0.0 13.2 3rd
4th 0.2 3.1 10.0 3.9 0.1 17.2 4th
5th 0.3 3.5 11.4 7.6 0.4 23.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.9 5.6 10.2 7.6 0.8 25.1 6th
7th 0.1 0.6 2.2 2.9 1.4 0.2 7.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 9th
10th 10th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.9 3.3 8.8 15.3 22.3 21.9 15.5 8.2 3.1 0.6 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 100.0% 0.6    0.4 0.2
14-4 73.8% 2.3    0.9 1.1 0.2 0.0
13-5 23.1% 1.9    0.2 0.5 0.8 0.3 0.0
12-6 1.0% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 4.9% 4.9 1.5 1.9 1.1 0.4 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 0.6% 23.7% 23.7% 11.7 0.0 0.1 0.5
14-4 3.1% 30.2% 30.2% 12.5 0.5 0.4 0.1 2.1
13-5 8.2% 22.6% 22.6% 12.9 0.6 1.0 0.3 0.0 6.3
12-6 15.5% 17.5% 17.5% 13.3 0.3 1.3 1.1 0.1 12.8
11-7 21.9% 11.2% 11.2% 13.5 0.1 1.2 1.0 0.2 19.4
10-8 22.3% 9.3% 9.3% 13.9 0.6 1.3 0.2 0.0 20.2
9-9 15.3% 7.8% 7.8% 14.1 0.2 0.7 0.3 14.1
8-10 8.8% 4.7% 4.7% 14.6 0.2 0.2 0.0 8.4
7-11 3.3% 5.7% 5.7% 14.9 0.1 0.1 0.0 3.1
6-12 0.9% 2.3% 2.3% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.9
5-13 0.2% 0.2
4-14 0.0% 0.0
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 12.0% 12.0% 0.0% 13.5 0.0 1.6 4.6 4.6 1.1 0.1 88.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.3%