Chattanooga
Southern
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+2.7#119
Expected Predictive Rating+3.9#110
Pace67.1#207
Improvement+6.1#10

Offense
Total Offense+5.3#61
First Shot+5.6#48
After Offensive Rebound-0.3#213
Layup/Dunks+2.6#89
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.9#327
3 Pt Jumpshots+7.1#16
Freethrows-1.3#268
Improvement+5.4#13

Defense
Total Defense-2.6#247
First Shot-3.1#270
After Offensive Rebounds+0.5#133
Layups/Dunks+1.6#107
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.3#335
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.6#314
Freethrows+1.2#99
Improvement+0.7#149
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 25.9% 26.1% 19.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.1 13.1 13.6
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 95.2% 95.8% 72.9%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round25.9% 26.1% 19.0%
Second Round2.0% 2.0% 1.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.3% 0.3% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: The Citadel (Home) - 97.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 14 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 22 - 12 - 4
Quad 38 - 39 - 7
Quad 412 - 222 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 59   @ USC L 51-77 17%     0 - 1 -13.3 -13.7 -1.1
  Nov 07, 2024 30   @ St. Mary's L 74-86 9%     0 - 2 +5.2 +18.0 -13.9
  Nov 11, 2024 276   @ Austin Peay L 61-67 74%     0 - 3 -9.9 -8.1 -2.2
  Nov 14, 2024 329   Morehead St. W 76-62 92%     1 - 3 +1.1 -3.5 +4.5
  Nov 17, 2024 217   @ Southeast Missouri St. W 87-82 63%     2 - 3 +4.4 +4.5 -0.7
  Nov 25, 2024 269   Tennessee St. W 85-78 85%     3 - 3 -1.2 +1.3 -3.1
  Nov 27, 2024 161   Bryant W 84-76 69%     4 - 3 +5.5 +12.3 -6.5
  Dec 03, 2024 101   Lipscomb L 62-80 53%     4 - 4 -16.1 -7.1 -9.8
  Dec 12, 2024 237   @ Evansville W 75-67 66%     5 - 4 +6.5 +8.0 -1.1
  Dec 15, 2024 359   Alabama A&M W 85-63 96%     6 - 4 +4.8 +16.7 -9.0
  Dec 21, 2024 57   @ Indiana L 65-74 16%     6 - 5 +4.1 +1.2 +2.6
  Jan 01, 2025 256   @ Mercer L 94-99 OT 70%     6 - 6 0 - 1 -7.7 +5.1 -12.0
  Jan 04, 2025 358   @ The Citadel W 81-68 91%     7 - 6 1 - 1 +1.2 +9.4 -7.2
  Jan 09, 2025 154   UNC Greensboro L 75-78 68%     7 - 7 1 - 2 -5.0 +11.3 -16.7
  Jan 12, 2025 309   VMI W 91-66 90%     8 - 7 2 - 2 +14.0 +23.8 -7.2
  Jan 15, 2025 142   Wofford W 83-81 OT 66%     9 - 7 3 - 2 +0.5 +8.7 -8.2
  Jan 18, 2025 159   @ Furman W 75-71 50%     10 - 7 4 - 2 +6.7 +5.8 +1.0
  Jan 23, 2025 113   Samford L 69-73 59%     10 - 8 4 - 3 -3.6 -1.0 -2.8
  Jan 25, 2025 148   @ East Tennessee St. W 71-63 48%     11 - 8 5 - 3 +11.3 +0.5 +10.8
  Jan 29, 2025 333   @ Western Carolina W 84-60 85%     12 - 8 6 - 3 +15.8 -1.5 +14.5
  Feb 01, 2025 256   Mercer W 93-84 84%     13 - 8 7 - 3 +1.2 +10.8 -10.3
  Feb 05, 2025 142   @ Wofford W 79-70 46%     14 - 8 8 - 3 +12.6 +13.9 -0.4
  Feb 08, 2025 159   Furman W 85-72 69%     15 - 8 9 - 3 +10.6 +13.6 -2.5
  Feb 12, 2025 113   @ Samford W 82-68 39%     16 - 8 10 - 3 +19.5 +11.9 +7.7
  Feb 15, 2025 148   East Tennessee St. W 78-71 67%     17 - 8 11 - 3 +5.2 +19.9 -13.4
  Feb 19, 2025 333   Western Carolina W 91-86 92%     18 - 8 12 - 3 -8.3 +12.8 -21.1
  Feb 22, 2025 358   The Citadel W 82-62 97%    
  Feb 27, 2025 154   @ UNC Greensboro L 71-72 47%    
  Mar 01, 2025 309   @ VMI W 80-71 78%    
Projected Record 20 - 9 14 - 4




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 9.0 50.1 36.1 95.2 1st
2nd 0.3 4.5 4.8 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.1 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
Total 0.4 13.4 50.1 36.1 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 100.0% 36.1    36.1
14-4 100.0% 50.1    36.6 13.6
13-5 66.7% 9.0    0.8 5.4 2.8
12-6 5.3% 0.0    0.0
11-7
10-8
9-9
Total 95.2% 95.2 73.4 19.0 2.8



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 36.1% 28.6% 28.6% 12.7 0.1 3.9 5.3 1.1 0.0 25.8
14-4 50.1% 24.9% 24.9% 13.3 1.3 6.3 4.5 0.3 37.6
13-5 13.4% 22.8% 22.8% 13.8 0.1 0.9 1.8 0.3 0.0 10.4
12-6 0.4% 18.4% 18.4% 14.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.3
11-7
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 25.9% 25.9% 0.0% 13.1 0.1 5.4 12.5 7.4 0.6 0.0 74.1 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 10.3% 100.0% 12.7 0.5 38.1 50.9 10.4 0.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 7.3%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 12.3%