Chattanooga
Southern
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-0.6#168
Expected Predictive Rating-2.2#216
Pace69.0#190
Improvement+1.6#39

Offense
Total Offense+0.5#166
First Shot+1.0#142
After Offensive Rebound-0.5#205
Layup/Dunks+2.6#94
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.9#225
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.2#81
Freethrows-3.8#333
Improvement+2.0#9

Defense
Total Defense-1.1#204
First Shot-2.4#256
After Offensive Rebounds+1.3#103
Layups/Dunks+2.1#116
2 Pt Jumpshots-4.1#345
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.4#197
Freethrows+0.0#183
Improvement-0.4#244
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 12.3% 13.0% 8.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.2 14.1 14.7
.500 or above 71.0% 75.5% 50.2%
.500 or above in Conference 76.0% 78.1% 66.1%
Conference Champion 14.5% 15.6% 9.3%
Last Place in Conference 1.6% 1.3% 2.7%
First Four0.7% 0.7% 1.2%
First Round12.0% 12.8% 8.3%
Second Round0.9% 1.0% 0.4%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Tennessee St. (Home) - 82.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 33 - 54 - 9
Quad 414 - 417 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 78   @ USC L 51-77 15%     0 - 1 -15.7 -15.2 -1.9
  Nov 07, 2024 44   @ St. Mary's L 74-86 9%     0 - 2 +1.9 +12.8 -12.0
  Nov 11, 2024 231   @ Austin Peay L 61-67 49%     0 - 3 -6.4 -7.7 +0.9
  Nov 14, 2024 279   Morehead St. W 76-62 79%     1 - 3 +4.9 -0.3 +5.1
  Nov 17, 2024 322   @ Southeast Missouri St. W 87-82 70%     2 - 3 -0.9 +1.0 -2.5
  Nov 25, 2024 297   Tennessee St. W 79-69 82%    
  Nov 27, 2024 159   Bryant W 80-78 59%    
  Dec 03, 2024 151   Lipscomb W 76-74 58%    
  Dec 12, 2024 300   @ Evansville W 76-72 64%    
  Dec 15, 2024 346   Alabama A&M W 80-65 91%    
  Dec 21, 2024 22   @ Indiana L 66-83 6%    
  Jan 01, 2025 254   @ Mercer W 73-72 54%    
  Jan 04, 2025 309   @ The Citadel W 71-66 67%    
  Jan 09, 2025 170   UNC Greensboro W 71-68 60%    
  Jan 11, 2025 347   VMI W 84-69 91%    
  Jan 15, 2025 204   Wofford W 73-68 66%    
  Jan 18, 2025 135   @ Furman L 72-77 32%    
  Jan 22, 2025 127   Samford W 81-80 50%    
  Jan 25, 2025 188   @ East Tennessee St. L 72-74 42%    
  Jan 29, 2025 258   @ Western Carolina W 70-69 55%    
  Feb 01, 2025 254   Mercer W 76-69 73%    
  Feb 05, 2025 204   @ Wofford L 70-71 45%    
  Feb 08, 2025 135   Furman W 75-74 53%    
  Feb 12, 2025 127   @ Samford L 78-84 30%    
  Feb 15, 2025 188   East Tennessee St. W 75-71 63%    
  Feb 19, 2025 258   Western Carolina W 73-66 74%    
  Feb 22, 2025 309   The Citadel W 74-63 82%    
  Feb 27, 2025 170   @ UNC Greensboro L 68-71 40%    
  Mar 01, 2025 347   @ VMI W 81-72 77%    
Projected Record 16 - 13 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.7 2.6 4.2 3.8 2.2 0.9 0.1 14.5 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 1.4 4.3 5.7 3.0 0.8 0.1 15.4 2nd
3rd 0.2 1.8 5.7 5.8 2.0 0.3 0.0 15.7 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 1.9 5.7 5.4 1.4 0.1 14.7 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 1.7 5.1 4.5 1.1 0.1 12.7 5th
6th 0.2 1.5 4.4 3.6 0.8 0.0 10.6 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 1.4 3.3 2.6 0.5 0.0 8.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 1.0 2.0 1.4 0.3 0.0 5.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.0 0.6 0.1 0.0 2.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.7 10th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.2 2.3 4.3 6.6 9.1 11.3 12.9 13.7 12.1 10.5 7.5 4.6 2.3 0.9 0.1 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-1 100.0% 0.9    0.9 0.0
16-2 96.3% 2.2    2.1 0.2 0.0
15-3 82.3% 3.8    2.8 0.9 0.1
14-4 56.0% 4.2    2.2 1.6 0.3 0.0
13-5 25.0% 2.6    0.7 1.3 0.5 0.1 0.0
12-6 5.4% 0.7    0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.4% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 14.5% 14.5 8.8 4.3 1.2 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.1% 44.1% 44.1% 11.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
17-1 0.9% 48.4% 48.1% 0.3% 12.4 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.6%
16-2 2.3% 40.4% 40.4% 12.9 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.0 1.4
15-3 4.6% 31.0% 31.0% 13.3 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.5 0.1 3.1
14-4 7.5% 26.1% 26.1% 13.7 0.1 0.6 0.9 0.3 0.0 5.5
13-5 10.5% 20.3% 20.3% 14.1 0.0 0.4 1.0 0.6 0.0 8.4
12-6 12.1% 14.0% 14.0% 14.5 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.8 0.2 10.4
11-7 13.7% 9.9% 9.9% 14.8 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.3 12.4
10-8 12.9% 9.0% 9.0% 15.2 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.4 11.8
9-9 11.3% 5.6% 5.6% 15.4 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.3 10.7
8-10 9.1% 3.5% 3.5% 15.9 0.0 0.3 8.8
7-11 6.6% 2.0% 2.0% 16.0 0.0 0.1 6.4
6-12 4.3% 1.5% 1.5% 16.0 0.1 4.2
5-13 2.3% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 2.3
4-14 1.2% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 1.2
3-15 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 0.5
2-16 0.1% 0.1
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 12.3% 12.3% 0.0% 14.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.9 2.5 3.8 3.3 1.7 87.7 0.0%