Preseason Rankings
East Tennessee St.
Southern
2024-25
Overall
Predictive Rating-0.3#170
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace67.4#213
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-0.8#196
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+0.5#152
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 12.7% 14.1% 8.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.8 13.6 14.4
.500 or above 68.7% 75.3% 47.6%
.500 or above in Conference 72.5% 76.5% 59.7%
Conference Champion 15.5% 17.7% 8.6%
Last Place in Conference 1.5% 1.0% 3.1%
First Four0.7% 0.6% 1.0%
First Round12.4% 13.9% 7.7%
Second Round1.5% 1.9% 0.5%
Sweet Sixteen0.3% 0.4% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Eastern Kentucky (Home) - 76.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 31 - 4
Quad 34 - 65 - 9
Quad 413 - 418 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2024 255   Eastern Kentucky W 76-69 76%    
  Nov 16, 2024 135   @ Davidson L 64-69 32%    
  Nov 22, 2024 330   South Carolina Upstate W 75-62 87%    
  Nov 24, 2024 289   Queens W 82-73 80%    
  Nov 27, 2024 126   @ Charlotte L 61-67 31%    
  Nov 30, 2024 281   Austin Peay W 72-64 77%    
  Dec 03, 2024 107   @ James Madison L 68-75 26%    
  Dec 07, 2024 105   @ Wichita St. L 66-74 25%    
  Dec 14, 2024 222   @ Jacksonville L 67-68 49%    
  Dec 18, 2024 288   Elon W 75-66 78%    
  Dec 21, 2024 205   @ UMKC L 68-69 46%    
  Jan 01, 2025 361   VMI W 86-67 94%    
  Jan 04, 2025 153   Wofford W 71-69 57%    
  Jan 08, 2025 208   @ Mercer L 68-69 47%    
  Jan 11, 2025 325   The Citadel W 73-61 84%    
  Jan 15, 2025 165   @ Furman L 71-74 39%    
  Jan 18, 2025 138   @ Samford L 75-80 35%    
  Jan 22, 2025 238   Western Carolina W 72-66 70%    
  Jan 25, 2025 147   Chattanooga W 72-70 56%    
  Jan 29, 2025 188   @ UNC Greensboro L 66-68 43%    
  Feb 01, 2025 165   Furman W 74-71 59%    
  Feb 05, 2025 361   @ VMI W 83-70 85%    
  Feb 08, 2025 138   Samford W 78-77 54%    
  Feb 12, 2025 238   @ Western Carolina W 70-69 51%    
  Feb 15, 2025 147   @ Chattanooga L 69-73 37%    
  Feb 19, 2025 188   UNC Greensboro W 69-65 62%    
  Feb 22, 2025 153   @ Wofford L 68-72 38%    
  Feb 26, 2025 208   Mercer W 71-66 66%    
  Mar 01, 2025 325   @ The Citadel W 70-64 69%    
Projected Record 17 - 12 10 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 2.0 4.0 4.3 3.0 1.4 0.4 15.5 1st
2nd 0.0 0.8 3.6 5.2 3.4 1.0 0.1 14.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.0 4.3 5.2 2.3 0.3 0.0 13.2 3rd
4th 0.1 1.1 4.4 5.4 1.9 0.2 13.0 4th
5th 0.1 1.4 4.6 4.6 1.4 0.1 12.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 1.4 4.2 4.0 1.0 0.0 10.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 1.6 3.5 3.1 0.9 0.1 9.6 7th
8th 0.1 0.5 1.7 2.7 1.7 0.5 0.0 7.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.0 1.1 0.6 0.1 0.0 3.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.8 10th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.8 3.2 5.1 6.8 9.2 10.7 11.1 11.9 11.2 9.6 7.7 5.3 3.1 1.4 0.4 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.4    0.4
17-1 100.0% 1.4    1.4 0.0
16-2 95.7% 3.0    2.7 0.3 0.0
15-3 80.7% 4.3    3.0 1.2 0.1
14-4 51.9% 4.0    1.9 1.7 0.4 0.0
13-5 20.7% 2.0    0.5 0.9 0.5 0.1
12-6 3.8% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 15.5% 15.5 9.8 4.3 1.2 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.4% 65.5% 59.6% 5.9% 9.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 14.6%
17-1 1.4% 52.4% 51.8% 0.6% 11.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.7 1.2%
16-2 3.1% 43.3% 43.1% 0.2% 12.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.0 1.8 0.3%
15-3 5.3% 36.2% 36.2% 13.1 0.0 0.5 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0 3.4
14-4 7.7% 27.4% 27.4% 13.6 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.8 0.3 0.0 5.6
13-5 9.6% 20.8% 20.8% 14.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.8 0.5 0.1 7.6
12-6 11.2% 14.3% 14.3% 14.5 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.2 9.6
11-7 11.9% 9.5% 9.5% 14.9 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.3 10.8
10-8 11.1% 6.7% 6.7% 15.2 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 10.3
9-9 10.7% 4.2% 4.2% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 10.3
8-10 9.2% 2.6% 2.6% 15.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 9.0
7-11 6.8% 1.5% 1.5% 16.0 0.0 0.1 6.7
6-12 5.1% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 5.1
5-13 3.2% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.0 3.2
4-14 1.8% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 1.8
3-15 0.9% 0.9
2-16 0.4% 0.4
1-17 0.1% 0.1
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 12.7% 12.7% 0.0% 13.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.7 3.1 3.2 2.6 1.6 87.3 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 6.5 54.3 2.2 21.7 10.9 10.9