East Tennessee St.
Southern
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
Switch to All-time Team Page
Overall
Predictive Rating+0.7#148
Expected Predictive Rating-1.5#188
Pace64.5#285
Improvement-0.3#205

Offense
Total Offense-0.2#178
First Shot-1.2#213
After Offensive Rebound+0.9#123
Layup/Dunks-2.8#284
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.1#168
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.8#52
Freethrows-3.3#348
Improvement-2.9#306

Defense
Total Defense+0.9#148
First Shot+0.6#160
After Offensive Rebounds+0.3#145
Layups/Dunks-2.3#273
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.4#162
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.5#77
Freethrows-0.1#188
Improvement+2.6#55
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 11.7% 14.4% 10.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.1 13.8 14.3
.500 or above 98.5% 100.0% 97.6%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round11.7% 14.4% 10.2%
Second Round0.5% 0.7% 0.4%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Wofford (Away) - 37.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 20 - 30 - 3
Quad 35 - 76 - 11
Quad 411 - 317 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2024 191   Eastern Kentucky L 78-82 69%     0 - 1 -8.4 +4.7 -13.3
  Nov 16, 2024 129   @ Davidson L 70-76 36%     0 - 2 -1.7 +4.8 -7.2
  Nov 22, 2024 345   South Carolina Upstate W 87-76 92%     1 - 2 -3.9 -0.5 -4.2
  Nov 24, 2024 231   Queens W 82-67 75%     2 - 2 +8.6 +5.8 +3.1
  Nov 27, 2024 235   @ Charlotte W 75-55 58%     3 - 2 +18.5 +5.1 +14.6
  Nov 30, 2024 276   Austin Peay W 79-57 82%     4 - 2 +13.0 +7.1 +7.2
  Dec 03, 2024 138   @ James Madison L 61-71 38%     4 - 3 -6.2 -7.5 +0.6
  Dec 07, 2024 115   @ Wichita St. L 87-96 33%     4 - 4 -3.6 +9.9 -12.7
  Dec 14, 2024 193   @ Jacksonville L 52-60 50%     4 - 5 -7.3 -17.1 +9.7
  Dec 18, 2024 175   Elon W 84-58 66%     5 - 5 +22.6 +14.9 +9.5
  Dec 21, 2024 245   @ UMKC L 66-73 61%     5 - 6 -9.2 +5.4 -15.8
  Jan 01, 2025 309   VMI W 84-69 86%     6 - 6 1 - 0 +4.0 +14.2 -9.0
  Jan 04, 2025 142   Wofford L 78-81 58%     6 - 7 1 - 1 -4.5 +6.0 -10.6
  Jan 08, 2025 256   @ Mercer W 70-68 63%     7 - 7 2 - 1 -0.7 -0.5 -0.2
  Jan 11, 2025 358   The Citadel W 70-52 94%     8 - 7 3 - 1 +1.1 -0.8 +4.3
  Jan 15, 2025 159   @ Furman L 70-73 42%     8 - 8 3 - 2 -0.3 +2.2 -2.7
  Jan 18, 2025 113   @ Samford W 65-60 32%     9 - 8 4 - 2 +10.5 -4.6 +15.2
  Jan 22, 2025 333   Western Carolina W 85-58 90%     10 - 8 5 - 2 +13.7 +13.2 +2.6
  Jan 25, 2025 119   Chattanooga L 63-71 52%     10 - 9 5 - 3 -7.8 -13.6 +5.7
  Jan 29, 2025 154   @ UNC Greensboro L 65-70 41%     10 - 10 5 - 4 -1.9 +10.6 -13.7
  Feb 02, 2025 159   Furman W 72-69 62%     11 - 10 6 - 4 +0.6 +6.8 -5.8
  Feb 05, 2025 309   @ VMI W 62-55 74%     12 - 10 7 - 4 +1.0 -10.5 +11.7
  Feb 08, 2025 113   Samford W 66-59 51%     13 - 10 8 - 4 +7.4 -5.1 +12.7
  Feb 12, 2025 333   @ Western Carolina L 67-76 80%     13 - 11 8 - 5 -17.2 -7.0 -10.5
  Feb 15, 2025 119   @ Chattanooga L 71-78 33%     13 - 12 8 - 6 -1.7 +10.6 -13.7
  Feb 19, 2025 154   UNC Greensboro W 65-49 60%     14 - 12 9 - 6 +14.0 +2.8 +13.9
  Feb 22, 2025 142   @ Wofford L 67-70 37%    
  Feb 26, 2025 256   Mercer W 77-68 81%    
  Mar 01, 2025 358   @ The Citadel W 72-60 87%    
Projected Record 16 - 13 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 4.7 4.7 2nd
3rd 7.3 18.6 25.9 3rd
4th 0.5 27.8 3.2 31.5 4th
5th 0.3 14.0 18.2 32.5 5th
6th 1.6 3.8 5.3 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
Total 1.9 18.2 53.4 26.5 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 26.5% 15.6% 15.6% 13.6 0.1 1.6 2.2 0.2 22.4
11-7 53.4% 11.1% 11.1% 14.2 0.0 0.6 3.5 1.8 0.0 47.5
10-8 18.2% 8.7% 8.7% 14.8 0.0 0.3 1.2 0.1 16.7
9-9 1.9% 4.8% 4.8% 15.2 0.1 0.0 1.8
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 11.7% 11.7% 0.0% 14.1 0.1 2.3 6.0 3.3 0.1 88.3 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 4.1% 100.0% 13.6 2.2 39.6 52.7 5.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 4.5%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 7.2%
Lose Out 1.0%