East Tennessee St.
Southern
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+1.2#146
Expected Predictive Rating-1.5#195
Pace66.7#231
Improvement+0.2#168

Offense
Total Offense+0.8#157
First Shot-0.4#185
After Offensive Rebound+1.1#114
Layup/Dunks-2.6#277
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.1#167
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.2#40
Freethrows-3.2#345
Improvement-1.9#288

Defense
Total Defense+0.4#155
First Shot+0.1#174
After Offensive Rebounds+0.3#157
Layups/Dunks-2.6#284
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.4#167
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.5#78
Freethrows-0.2#193
Improvement+2.0#77
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 14.3% 14.6% 10.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.8 13.8 14.4
.500 or above 90.3% 91.7% 71.6%
.500 or above in Conference 96.0% 96.7% 86.1%
Conference Champion 15.7% 16.4% 5.3%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.6%
First Round14.3% 14.6% 10.1%
Second Round0.9% 0.9% 0.4%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Western Carolina (Home) - 92.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 21 - 31 - 3
Quad 35 - 86 - 11
Quad 411 - 318 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2024 248   Eastern Kentucky L 78-82 80%     0 - 1 -11.6 +3.5 -15.3
  Nov 16, 2024 121   @ Davidson L 70-76 34%     0 - 2 -0.6 +5.1 -6.3
  Nov 22, 2024 338   South Carolina Upstate W 87-76 92%     1 - 2 -3.2 +1.0 -5.0
  Nov 24, 2024 210   Queens W 82-67 73%     2 - 2 +9.8 +6.9 +3.1
  Nov 27, 2024 224   @ Charlotte W 75-55 58%     3 - 2 +19.1 +5.6 +14.7
  Nov 30, 2024 298   Austin Peay W 79-57 86%     4 - 2 +11.6 +8.3 +4.6
  Dec 03, 2024 149   @ James Madison L 61-71 40%     4 - 3 -6.2 -6.0 -0.9
  Dec 07, 2024 138   @ Wichita St. L 87-96 38%     4 - 4 -4.6 +8.2 -12.0
  Dec 14, 2024 185   @ Jacksonville L 52-60 48%     4 - 5 -6.3 -16.2 +9.8
  Dec 18, 2024 158   Elon W 84-58 64%     5 - 5 +23.6 +15.2 +10.2
  Dec 21, 2024 223   @ UMKC L 66-73 58%     5 - 6 -7.8 +5.6 -14.6
  Jan 01, 2025 327   VMI W 84-69 90%     6 - 6 1 - 0 +1.9 +12.0 -8.8
  Jan 04, 2025 130   Wofford L 78-81 58%     6 - 7 1 - 1 -3.8 +5.6 -9.6
  Jan 08, 2025 233   @ Mercer W 70-68 59%     7 - 7 2 - 1 +0.7 +0.3 +0.5
  Jan 11, 2025 352   The Citadel W 70-52 93%     8 - 7 3 - 1 +2.3 +0.2 +4.5
  Jan 15, 2025 151   @ Furman L 70-73 40%     8 - 8 3 - 2 +0.7 +3.4 -2.9
  Jan 18, 2025 115   @ Samford W 65-60 33%     9 - 8 4 - 2 +10.7 -6.4 +17.1
  Jan 22, 2025 342   Western Carolina W 79-64 93%    
  Jan 25, 2025 156   Chattanooga W 76-73 64%    
  Jan 29, 2025 129   @ UNC Greensboro L 66-70 35%    
  Feb 01, 2025 151   Furman W 71-68 62%    
  Feb 05, 2025 327   @ VMI W 76-67 78%    
  Feb 08, 2025 115   Samford W 78-77 55%    
  Feb 12, 2025 342   @ Western Carolina W 77-67 82%    
  Feb 15, 2025 156   @ Chattanooga L 73-75 42%    
  Feb 19, 2025 129   UNC Greensboro W 69-67 58%    
  Feb 22, 2025 130   @ Wofford L 69-72 36%    
  Feb 26, 2025 233   Mercer W 77-69 78%    
  Mar 01, 2025 352   @ The Citadel W 73-62 85%    
Projected Record 17 - 12 12 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.2 4.3 6.7 3.8 0.7 15.7 1st
2nd 0.3 4.9 10.1 3.4 0.2 18.8 2nd
3rd 0.1 3.3 11.1 4.4 0.2 19.2 3rd
4th 0.1 2.4 9.7 5.2 0.2 17.7 4th
5th 0.2 1.8 7.2 5.3 0.4 14.8 5th
6th 0.3 2.0 4.8 4.1 0.5 11.6 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.8 0.7 0.0 2.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.0 9th
10th 10th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.9 3.0 7.4 13.9 19.0 21.8 19.0 10.3 3.9 0.7 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 100.0% 0.7    0.6 0.0
15-3 95.2% 3.8    2.9 0.8 0.1
14-4 65.4% 6.7    3.0 3.0 0.7 0.0
13-5 22.7% 4.3    0.4 1.6 1.7 0.7 0.0
12-6 1.0% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 15.7% 15.7 6.9 5.5 2.5 0.8 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 0.7% 26.2% 26.2% 12.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.5
15-3 3.9% 31.0% 31.0% 12.8 0.0 0.4 0.7 0.1 2.7
14-4 10.3% 26.6% 26.6% 13.2 0.0 0.3 1.5 0.9 0.0 7.6
13-5 19.0% 18.6% 18.6% 13.7 0.1 1.2 1.9 0.4 15.4
12-6 21.8% 14.3% 14.3% 14.0 0.1 0.5 1.9 0.7 18.7
11-7 19.0% 9.8% 9.8% 14.2 0.0 0.3 1.1 0.5 0.1 17.2
10-8 13.9% 7.3% 7.3% 14.8 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.0 12.9
9-9 7.4% 5.1% 5.1% 15.0 0.0 0.4 0.0 7.0
8-10 3.0% 7.0% 7.0% 15.6 0.1 0.1 2.8
7-11 0.9% 7.1% 7.1% 16.0 0.1 0.8
6-12 0.1% 0.1
5-13 0.0% 0.0
4-14 0.0% 0.0
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 14.3% 14.3% 0.0% 13.8 0.0 1.0 4.2 6.1 2.7 0.3 85.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.3%