Davidson
Atlantic 10
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+1.9#130
Expected Predictive Rating+10.0#52
Pace64.3#319
Improvement+0.4#134

Offense
Total Offense+1.8#124
First Shot-1.7#227
After Offensive Rebound+3.4#39
Layup/Dunks+2.3#103
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.7#131
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.8#325
Freethrows+1.1#135
Improvement-0.2#205

Defense
Total Defense+0.2#161
First Shot-1.4#226
After Offensive Rebounds+1.6#85
Layups/Dunks+0.4#158
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.1#214
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.8#277
Freethrows+1.1#120
Improvement+0.6#101
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3.8% 4.0% 1.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.5% 0.6% 0.0%
Average Seed 11.4 11.4 12.3
.500 or above 69.5% 71.1% 39.4%
.500 or above in Conference 48.4% 49.5% 28.5%
Conference Champion 4.0% 4.2% 0.8%
Last Place in Conference 8.5% 8.0% 16.6%
First Four0.3% 0.3% 0.0%
First Round3.7% 3.8% 1.0%
Second Round0.9% 0.9% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: VMI (Home) - 94.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 22 - 42 - 7
Quad 36 - 58 - 12
Quad 49 - 217 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2024 264   @ Bowling Green W 91-85 66%     1 - 0 +3.8 +8.4 -5.1
  Nov 16, 2024 188   East Tennessee St. W 76-70 73%     2 - 0 +1.7 +8.1 -5.8
  Nov 22, 2024 347   VMI W 82-65 95%    
  Nov 27, 2024 13   Arizona L 69-83 11%    
  Dec 06, 2024 312   Charleston Southern W 77-64 89%    
  Dec 10, 2024 142   Charlotte W 67-63 63%    
  Dec 14, 2024 338   Detroit Mercy W 78-62 93%    
  Dec 18, 2024 113   @ Temple L 67-72 33%    
  Dec 21, 2024 286   Bethune-Cookman W 75-64 85%    
  Dec 28, 2024 301   Eastern Michigan W 73-61 86%    
  Dec 31, 2024 96   @ George Mason L 65-71 28%    
  Jan 04, 2025 207   Duquesne W 71-64 74%    
  Jan 11, 2025 161   Fordham W 73-68 67%    
  Jan 15, 2025 120   @ La Salle L 67-71 37%    
  Jan 18, 2025 117   @ Rhode Island L 72-76 35%    
  Jan 21, 2025 100   Saint Joseph's L 70-71 49%    
  Jan 25, 2025 197   @ Richmond W 67-66 52%    
  Feb 01, 2025 96   George Mason L 68-69 48%    
  Feb 04, 2025 64   @ Dayton L 64-74 21%    
  Feb 08, 2025 197   Richmond W 70-63 72%    
  Feb 12, 2025 129   @ Massachusetts L 70-73 39%    
  Feb 15, 2025 143   George Washington W 76-72 63%    
  Feb 18, 2025 105   Loyola Chicago W 71-70 52%    
  Feb 22, 2025 161   @ Fordham L 70-71 47%    
  Feb 25, 2025 101   Saint Louis W 75-74 50%    
  Feb 28, 2025 50   @ Virginia Commonwealth L 64-74 18%    
  Mar 05, 2025 105   @ Loyola Chicago L 68-73 32%    
  Mar 08, 2025 114   St. Bonaventure W 68-67 55%    
Projected Record 16 - 12 8 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic 10 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.3 1.0 0.6 0.2 0.0 4.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 1.2 2.2 1.3 0.4 0.0 0.0 5.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 1.3 2.8 1.6 0.3 0.0 6.2 3rd
4th 0.0 1.0 3.0 2.0 0.3 0.0 6.4 4th
5th 0.4 3.1 2.9 0.6 0.0 7.0 5th
6th 0.1 2.2 4.0 1.1 0.1 7.5 6th
7th 0.0 1.0 4.4 2.1 0.2 7.7 7th
8th 0.4 3.1 3.7 0.5 0.0 7.7 8th
9th 0.1 1.8 4.6 1.2 0.0 7.8 9th
10th 0.0 0.9 4.2 2.5 0.2 7.8 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.5 3.0 3.5 0.6 7.6 11th
12th 0.0 0.2 2.0 3.7 1.3 0.0 7.3 12th
13th 0.0 0.2 1.6 3.3 1.6 0.2 6.9 13th
14th 0.0 0.3 1.4 2.4 1.7 0.3 0.0 6.2 14th
15th 0.1 0.5 1.2 1.6 1.0 0.2 0.0 4.7 15th
Total 0.1 0.6 1.5 3.2 5.3 7.8 9.7 11.4 12.0 12.1 10.8 8.7 6.8 4.9 2.9 1.4 0.7 0.2 0.0 Total



Atlantic 10 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 98.6% 0.2    0.2 0.0
16-2 93.1% 0.6    0.5 0.1 0.0
15-3 72.6% 1.0    0.7 0.3 0.0 0.0
14-4 43.9% 1.3    0.5 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0
13-5 14.9% 0.7    0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0
12-6 2.1% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 4.0% 4.0 2.0 1.3 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
17-1 0.2% 71.8% 29.6% 42.3% 8.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 60.0%
16-2 0.7% 50.8% 25.6% 25.2% 9.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 33.8%
15-3 1.4% 30.4% 21.2% 9.2% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 1.0 11.7%
14-4 2.9% 18.8% 15.7% 3.0% 11.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 2.3 3.6%
13-5 4.9% 12.9% 12.3% 0.6% 11.7 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.0 0.0 4.2 0.6%
12-6 6.8% 9.7% 9.5% 0.2% 11.9 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.1 6.2 0.2%
11-7 8.7% 5.3% 5.3% 0.1% 12.2 0.0 0.3 0.1 0.0 8.2 0.1%
10-8 10.8% 2.9% 2.9% 12.3 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 10.5
9-9 12.1% 1.1% 1.1% 12.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 11.9
8-10 12.0% 0.5% 0.5% 13.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 11.9
7-11 11.4% 0.6% 0.6% 13.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 11.4
6-12 9.7% 0.1% 0.1% 14.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 9.7
5-13 7.8% 0.1% 0.1% 15.0 0.0 7.8
4-14 5.3% 5.3
3-15 3.2% 3.2
2-16 1.5% 1.5
1-17 0.6% 0.6
0-18 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 3.8% 3.3% 0.5% 11.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 1.1 1.7 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 96.2 0.5%