Atlantic 10
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
54 Virginia Commonwealth 31.3%   11   11 - 4 2 - 1 22 - 8 13 - 5 +10.0      +4.2 65 +5.7 39 65.4 263 +7.0 78 +8.4 3
62 Dayton 21.3%   10 - 5 1 - 2 20 - 10 11 - 7 +8.4      +5.9 45 +2.5 102 64.2 297 +9.5 63 -3.1 13
76 St. Bonaventure 15.5%   13 - 2 2 - 1 23 - 7 12 - 6 +7.1      +2.9 97 +4.1 72 63.7 306 +11.8 48 +8.7 2
86 George Mason 10.7%   10 - 5 2 - 1 19 - 11 11 - 7 +6.3      -0.1 179 +6.4 29 63.1 317 +3.3 122 +4.8 7
97 Saint Joseph's 7.9%   10 - 6 2 - 2 19 - 12 11 - 8 +5.1      +1.5 134 +3.6 87 70.3 138 +2.9 125 +1.2 10
102 Saint Louis 5.8%   8 - 6 3 - 0 16 - 13 11 - 7 +4.2      +4.7 58 -0.6 186 68.9 183 +2.4 133 +17.4 1
104 Rhode Island 4.7%   11 - 3 1 - 2 19 - 10 9 - 9 +4.0      +0.9 153 +3.1 94 74.9 48 +6.5 86 -1.2 11
110 George Washington 4.1%   12 - 3 2 - 1 20 - 10 10 - 8 +3.2      +1.4 138 +1.7 115 72.0 97 +4.9 100 +8.2 4
120 Davidson 3.2%   10 - 4 1 - 1 18 - 12 9 - 9 +2.8      +3.5 85 -0.7 195 64.4 288 +7.0 77 +3.6 9
124 Loyola Chicago 2.5%   9 - 5 1 - 1 17 - 13 9 - 9 +2.5      +0.4 164 +2.1 110 70.2 144 +1.7 144 +4.4 8
143 Duquesne 1.3%   6 - 9 2 - 1 12 - 18 8 - 10 +0.8      -0.6 191 +1.4 127 62.6 333 -3.0 214 +6.7 6
187 La Salle 0.4%   7 - 7 0 - 3 13 - 17 6 - 13 -1.2      -1.1 206 -0.2 175 74.3 57 -0.1 164 -11.7 15
200 Massachusetts 0.3%   5 - 10 1 - 2 10 - 20 6 - 12 -1.9      -1.4 212 -0.5 184 74.4 53 -5.4 256 -1.8 12
210 Richmond 0.2%   5 - 9 2 - 1 9 - 20 6 - 12 -2.5      -1.4 210 -1.1 207 66.0 249 -4.8 247 +7.6 5
218 Fordham 0.1%   7 - 8 0 - 3 11 - 19 4 - 14 -3.2      -2.1 225 -1.1 205 73.2 70 -1.8 195 -10.9 14





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th 15th
Virginia Commonwealth 2.6 42.8 19.8 12.2 8.3 5.6 4.1 2.7 2.0 1.1 0.8 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Dayton 4.8 13.6 14.1 13.3 12.0 10.6 9.4 7.8 6.4 4.6 3.5 2.3 1.3 0.7 0.3 0.1
St. Bonaventure 3.6 23.5 19.4 15.3 11.5 8.6 6.9 4.9 3.8 2.6 1.6 1.0 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0
George Mason 4.6 14.5 14.8 14.0 12.1 10.3 9.0 7.4 5.8 4.6 3.3 2.1 1.2 0.5 0.3 0.1
Saint Joseph's 5.2 11.7 12.0 12.0 11.6 11.0 9.5 8.5 7.2 5.8 4.5 3.1 1.9 1.0 0.3 0.1
Saint Louis 5.5 11.2 10.7 11.2 10.8 10.1 10.1 8.7 7.5 6.7 5.3 3.7 2.2 1.2 0.5 0.1
Rhode Island 7.1 3.7 5.8 7.2 8.5 9.0 10.2 10.2 10.0 9.5 8.1 6.6 5.0 3.4 2.0 0.8
George Washington 6.1 7.4 8.7 9.9 10.1 10.3 10.7 9.8 8.9 7.7 6.0 4.4 3.0 1.9 0.9 0.4
Davidson 7.2 4.0 5.9 7.1 8.0 8.4 9.7 9.9 9.8 9.4 8.3 6.9 5.4 3.8 2.5 1.0
Loyola Chicago 8.2 2.5 4.0 4.9 6.1 6.8 7.9 8.5 9.2 10.0 10.0 9.8 8.7 6.1 3.8 1.7
Duquesne 8.9 1.4 2.5 3.5 4.2 5.6 6.9 8.5 9.6 11.1 12.3 11.6 9.4 7.2 4.3 2.0
La Salle 11.7 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.0 1.5 2.4 3.5 4.6 6.2 8.0 11.3 13.9 15.8 17.3 13.5
Massachusetts 11.8 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.8 1.4 2.3 3.0 4.1 6.0 8.2 11.3 14.3 16.6 17.8 13.3
Richmond 11.2 0.2 0.4 0.7 1.2 1.7 2.7 4.0 5.3 7.3 10.4 13.2 15.5 17.2 13.4 6.6
Fordham 13.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 1.1 1.7 2.7 4.0 6.5 9.8 14.7 21.6 36.5




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Virginia Commonwealth 13 - 5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.5 3.5 6.6 11.5 16.7 19.8 18.4 13.0 6.7 1.7
Dayton 11 - 7 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.6 3.4 6.9 11.4 15.7 18.3 17.4 13.4 7.6 3.0 0.6
St. Bonaventure 12 - 6 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.3 3.5 7.3 11.6 16.2 19.0 17.7 12.9 7.0 2.5 0.4
George Mason 11 - 7 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.3 3.1 6.7 10.8 15.1 18.2 17.6 13.6 8.0 3.8 1.1 0.2
Saint Joseph's 11 - 7 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.7 2.1 4.7 8.7 12.8 16.3 17.8 15.3 11.2 6.3 2.8 0.9 0.1
Saint Louis 11 - 7 0.0 0.2 0.9 2.6 5.6 9.8 13.9 16.5 16.8 14.1 9.9 5.8 2.8 1.0 0.2 0.0
Rhode Island 9 - 9 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.2 3.1 6.4 10.3 14.3 16.5 16.7 13.9 9.5 5.0 2.0 0.5 0.1
George Washington 10 - 8 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.5 3.7 6.8 11.6 15.8 17.1 15.9 12.6 8.1 4.3 1.6 0.4 0.0
Davidson 9 - 9 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.6 3.6 7.0 10.5 14.3 16.5 15.7 13.2 8.9 4.9 2.3 0.8 0.2 0.0
Loyola Chicago 9 - 9 0.0 0.4 1.1 3.0 6.1 10.2 13.6 15.6 15.9 13.3 9.9 5.9 2.9 1.4 0.5 0.1 0.0
Duquesne 8 - 10 0.2 1.0 3.2 7.4 12.2 16.1 17.8 15.8 12.2 7.5 4.0 1.7 0.6 0.2 0.0
La Salle 6 - 12 0.2 1.2 4.0 8.6 13.3 16.8 17.3 15.1 10.6 7.1 3.6 1.6 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0
Massachusetts 6 - 12 0.8 3.5 9.0 14.3 17.5 17.9 14.9 10.7 6.4 3.1 1.3 0.5 0.1 0.0
Richmond 6 - 12 1.2 5.0 11.1 17.1 19.3 17.7 13.4 8.2 4.2 1.8 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0
Fordham 4 - 14 1.3 5.0 11.3 16.5 19.6 17.4 12.8 8.2 4.4 2.2 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Virginia Commonwealth 42.8% 27.6 10.6 3.4 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0
Dayton 13.6% 6.3 4.5 1.9 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0
St. Bonaventure 23.5% 12.8 7.0 2.7 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0
George Mason 14.5% 6.9 4.8 2.0 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0
Saint Joseph's 11.7% 5.7 3.6 1.6 0.6 0.2 0.0
Saint Louis 11.2% 5.6 3.5 1.4 0.5 0.2 0.0
Rhode Island 3.7% 1.3 1.3 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0
George Washington 7.4% 3.4 2.5 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0
Davidson 4.0% 1.5 1.4 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Loyola Chicago 2.5% 1.0 0.9 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0
Duquesne 1.4% 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
La Salle 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Massachusetts 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Richmond 0.2% 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Fordham 0.0% 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Virginia Commonwealth 31.3% 28.2% 3.0% 11   0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.7 1.4 3.6 18.2 6.0 0.1 68.7 4.2%
Dayton 21.3% 17.3% 4.1% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 1.1 3.2 12.9 3.0 0.1 0.0 78.7 4.9%
St. Bonaventure 15.5% 13.8% 1.8% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.8 8.8 5.3 0.1 0.0 84.5 2.0%
George Mason 10.7% 10.5% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 3.6 5.8 0.9 0.1 0.0 0.0 89.3 0.2%
Saint Joseph's 7.9% 7.8% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 2.7 4.6 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 92.1 0.1%
Saint Louis 5.8% 5.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 1.4 3.3 0.9 0.2 0.1 0.0 94.2 0.0%
Rhode Island 4.7% 4.7% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.1 2.9 0.5 0.1 0.0 95.3 0.1%
George Washington 4.1% 4.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.7 2.5 0.8 0.1 0.0 95.9 0.0%
Davidson 3.2% 3.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.6 2.0 0.5 0.1 0.0 96.8 0.0%
Loyola Chicago 2.5% 2.5% 0.0% 0.3 1.5 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 97.5 0.0%
Duquesne 1.3% 1.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.1 98.7 0.0%
La Salle 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.6 0.0%
Massachusetts 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 99.7 0.0%
Richmond 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 99.8 0.0%
Fordham 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Virginia Commonwealth 31.3% 1.9% 30.3% 10.8% 2.9% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Dayton 21.3% 2.7% 19.9% 6.3% 1.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
St. Bonaventure 15.5% 1.5% 14.8% 3.8% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
George Mason 10.7% 0.1% 10.6% 2.4% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Saint Joseph's 7.9% 0.1% 7.8% 1.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Saint Louis 5.8% 0.0% 5.8% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Rhode Island 4.7% 0.1% 4.7% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
George Washington 4.1% 0.0% 4.1% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Davidson 3.2% 0.0% 3.2% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Loyola Chicago 2.5% 0.0% 2.5% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Duquesne 1.3% 0.1% 1.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
La Salle 0.4% 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Massachusetts 0.3% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Richmond 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Fordham 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.1 90.8 9.1 0.1
1st Round 99.9% 1.1 0.1 94.0 5.8 0.1
2nd Round 27.7% 0.3 72.3 27.1 0.6
Sweet Sixteen 6.8% 0.1 93.2 6.8 0.0
Elite Eight 1.4% 0.0 98.6 1.4
Final Four 0.3% 0.0 99.7 0.3
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0