Atlantic 10
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
39 Dayton 53.8%   11   5 - 2 0 - 0 22 - 8 14 - 4 +11.7      +7.7 26 +4.0 75 67.5 229 +14.2 33 0.0 1
62 Virginia Commonwealth 23.1%   5 - 2 0 - 0 21 - 9 12 - 6 +8.8      +2.5 105 +6.3 28 68.0 211 +6.0 91 0.0 1
84 Loyola Chicago 11.8%   5 - 0 0 - 0 19 - 9 10 - 8 +6.0      +1.7 129 +4.3 70 70.5 138 +11.8 50 0.0 1
85 George Mason 8.7%   4 - 3 0 - 0 18 - 12 11 - 7 +6.0      +1.3 143 +4.6 61 65.2 286 -0.1 172 0.0 1
88 Rhode Island 9.9%   7 - 0 0 - 0 21 - 8 11 - 7 +5.9      +4.1 73 +1.8 111 76.3 31 +10.8 56 0.0 1
89 Saint Joseph's 10.4%   5 - 2 0 - 0 20 - 11 11 - 8 +5.9      +2.3 112 +3.6 84 70.6 135 +8.2 77 0.0 1
94 St. Bonaventure 9.2%   6 - 1 0 - 0 21 - 9 11 - 7 +5.6      +2.5 107 +3.1 90 64.5 301 +10.5 59 0.0 1
123 Davidson 2.6%   4 - 2 0 - 0 17 - 13 8 - 10 +2.3      +2.3 113 0.0 172 68.4 201 +10.4 62 0.0 1
134 La Salle 2.0%   6 - 2 0 - 0 16 - 14 8 - 11 +1.8      +0.5 161 +1.2 129 74.6 53 +3.8 117 0.0 1
135 Saint Louis 1.7%   4 - 2 0 - 0 14 - 15 7 - 11 +1.7      +3.9 76 -2.2 246 72.0 101 +2.4 132 0.0 1
140 George Washington 1.6%   7 - 1 0 - 0 18 - 12 8 - 10 +1.5      +2.0 121 -0.5 189 73.5 73 +6.9 83 0.0 1
151 Massachusetts 1.0%   3 - 5 0 - 0 12 - 18 7 - 11 +0.4      0.0 179 +0.4 156 70.7 134 -4.2 235 0.0 1
185 Richmond 0.6%   2 - 4 0 - 0 11 - 18 6 - 12 -1.1      -2.4 237 +1.3 125 66.9 244 -6.7 275 0.0 1
195 Fordham 0.4%   3 - 5 0 - 0 12 - 18 6 - 12 -1.5      -1.6 215 +0.1 169 71.2 121 -4.4 240 0.0 1
220 Duquesne 0.2%   1 - 6 0 - 0 8 - 22 5 - 13 -2.8      -4.4 295 +1.6 117 65.8 270 -12.1 337 0.0 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th 15th
Dayton 2.4 46.5 20.5 12.1 7.8 4.9 3.1 1.9 1.3 0.8 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0
Virginia Commonwealth 4.0 20.2 17.6 14.9 12.3 9.2 7.6 5.5 4.3 3.1 2.0 1.4 1.0 0.5 0.3 0.1
Loyola Chicago 5.9 9.6 10.5 10.9 10.2 10.1 9.1 8.4 7.5 6.3 5.3 4.3 3.2 2.2 1.5 0.8
George Mason 5.5 9.3 12.2 12.2 11.7 10.7 9.3 8.1 7.5 5.6 4.5 3.4 2.5 1.7 0.9 0.5
Rhode Island 5.4 10.3 12.0 12.3 11.5 10.9 9.7 7.7 6.8 5.6 4.3 3.4 2.4 1.6 1.2 0.5
Saint Joseph's 4.8 15.1 14.6 13.3 11.5 9.8 8.4 6.9 5.9 4.4 3.2 2.6 1.9 1.2 0.7 0.4
St. Bonaventure 5.6 8.9 11.1 11.3 11.5 10.6 10.1 8.7 7.1 6.3 4.9 3.8 2.6 1.6 1.1 0.6
Davidson 8.2 2.1 3.9 5.5 6.6 7.5 8.5 9.2 9.8 9.3 8.9 8.4 7.1 5.7 4.9 2.8
La Salle 8.3 2.3 3.8 5.1 6.1 7.4 7.9 8.3 9.5 9.2 9.2 8.7 8.3 6.6 4.9 2.8
Saint Louis 9.6 1.5 1.9 3.0 4.1 4.7 6.1 6.7 8.4 8.9 10.2 10.2 10.2 9.7 8.5 6.1
George Washington 8.8 1.4 2.9 3.7 5.4 6.3 8.0 8.7 9.5 9.7 9.5 9.1 8.5 7.0 6.1 4.2
Massachusetts 9.8 0.7 1.5 2.5 3.5 4.8 5.9 6.9 8.1 8.8 9.6 10.6 10.8 10.2 9.3 6.9
Richmond 11.0 0.3 0.7 1.4 1.9 2.6 3.8 5.2 6.0 7.7 8.8 10.4 12.0 12.9 13.9 12.3
Fordham 11.1 0.2 0.6 1.1 1.8 2.7 3.5 4.8 6.2 7.2 8.9 10.4 12.5 12.7 13.8 13.5
Duquesne 12.3 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.8 1.3 1.9 2.7 3.6 5.2 6.4 8.5 11.2 14.0 18.5 25.3




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Dayton 14 - 4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.1 2.2 4.4 7.1 10.9 14.9 17.4 17.2 13.5 7.9 2.5
Virginia Commonwealth 12 - 6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.2 2.7 4.6 7.2 10.5 13.1 15.1 14.8 12.7 9.3 5.2 2.2 0.5
Loyola Chicago 10 - 8 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.4 2.7 4.6 7.2 9.4 11.6 12.7 12.9 11.8 10.2 7.1 4.3 2.2 0.8 0.1
George Mason 11 - 7 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.9 3.5 5.7 8.7 11.3 13.2 14.4 13.5 10.7 8.0 4.9 2.3 0.6 0.1
Rhode Island 11 - 7 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.9 3.4 5.8 8.5 10.5 13.6 13.9 13.0 11.0 8.3 5.0 2.6 0.8 0.2
Saint Joseph's 11 - 7 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 1.4 2.6 4.2 6.8 9.7 11.6 12.6 13.9 12.5 9.7 6.9 4.2 2.1 0.7
St. Bonaventure 11 - 7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.9 3.8 6.6 9.2 12.0 13.6 13.9 12.6 10.5 7.4 4.3 1.9 0.6 0.2
Davidson 8 - 10 0.0 0.3 1.0 2.0 4.2 7.5 9.4 12.7 13.6 13.7 12.0 9.6 6.9 3.8 2.1 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0
La Salle 8 - 10 0.0 0.2 0.9 2.4 4.8 7.7 10.7 12.7 14.0 12.7 11.5 8.7 6.1 4.0 1.9 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.0
Saint Louis 7 - 11 0.2 0.9 2.5 4.8 7.8 11.0 12.9 14.2 13.2 10.6 8.6 5.9 3.7 2.0 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
George Washington 8 - 10 0.1 0.4 1.4 3.0 5.8 8.3 11.1 13.5 13.8 13.1 11.4 7.8 4.8 3.1 1.5 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0
Massachusetts 7 - 11 0.2 0.8 2.7 5.2 8.7 11.4 13.9 13.9 12.8 10.8 8.3 5.4 3.3 1.4 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0
Richmond 6 - 12 0.4 2.2 4.9 8.6 12.3 14.1 14.5 13.4 10.7 7.9 5.3 2.8 1.6 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0
Fordham 6 - 12 0.4 2.2 5.3 8.9 12.0 14.9 15.1 12.9 10.4 7.9 5.0 2.8 1.4 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0
Duquesne 5 - 13 1.4 4.9 9.6 14.5 15.4 15.4 12.8 10.0 7.2 4.3 2.5 1.2 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Dayton 46.5% 32.4 10.9 2.5 0.6 0.1 0.0
Virginia Commonwealth 20.2% 12.0 6.0 1.8 0.4 0.0 0.0
Loyola Chicago 9.6% 5.3 3.0 0.9 0.3 0.0 0.0
George Mason 9.3% 4.8 3.1 1.0 0.3 0.0 0.0
Rhode Island 10.3% 5.3 3.5 1.2 0.2 0.0 0.0
Saint Joseph's 15.1% 8.9 4.5 1.4 0.3 0.0 0.0
St. Bonaventure 8.9% 4.4 3.1 1.0 0.3 0.0 0.0
Davidson 2.1% 0.9 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
La Salle 2.3% 1.0 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Saint Louis 1.5% 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
George Washington 1.4% 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Massachusetts 0.7% 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0
Richmond 0.3% 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
Fordham 0.2% 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Duquesne 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Dayton 53.8% 32.7% 21.1% 11   0.6 1.0 1.6 2.6 3.3 3.8 4.3 4.6 6.8 9.1 13.6 2.4 0.0 46.2 31.3%
Virginia Commonwealth 23.1% 17.5% 5.6% 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.8 1.1 1.4 2.0 3.8 9.0 3.7 0.1 0.0 0.0 76.9 6.8%
Loyola Chicago 11.8% 8.4% 3.4% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.7 1.2 5.3 3.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 88.2 3.7%
George Mason 8.7% 7.9% 0.8% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 3.0 4.2 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 91.3 0.8%
Rhode Island 9.9% 7.9% 2.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.7 4.2 3.8 0.2 0.0 0.0 90.1 2.2%
Saint Joseph's 10.6% 8.5% 2.0% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 1.0 4.5 3.6 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 89.4 2.2%
St. Bonaventure 9.2% 7.6% 1.6% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.6 3.8 3.6 0.3 0.0 90.8 1.7%
Davidson 2.6% 2.4% 0.3% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.8 1.3 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 97.4 0.3%
La Salle 2.0% 1.9% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 98.0 0.1%
Saint Louis 1.7% 1.6% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 98.3 0.1%
George Washington 1.6% 1.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.9 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 98.4 0.0%
Massachusetts 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 99.0 0.0%
Richmond 0.6% 0.6% 0.0% 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 99.4 0.0%
Fordham 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.6 0.0%
Duquesne 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 99.8 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Dayton 53.8% 5.6% 51.0% 28.1% 10.6% 4.1% 1.6% 0.6% 0.3%
Virginia Commonwealth 23.1% 2.0% 22.1% 9.3% 2.7% 0.9% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%
Loyola Chicago 11.8% 2.0% 10.8% 3.8% 1.1% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
George Mason 8.7% 0.5% 8.4% 2.4% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Rhode Island 9.9% 1.3% 9.2% 2.7% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Saint Joseph's 10.6% 1.1% 10.0% 3.0% 0.8% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
St. Bonaventure 9.2% 1.1% 8.6% 2.3% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Davidson 2.6% 0.2% 2.5% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
La Salle 2.0% 0.0% 1.9% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Saint Louis 1.7% 0.1% 1.7% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
George Washington 1.6% 0.0% 1.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Massachusetts 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Richmond 0.6% 0.0% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Fordham 0.4% 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Duquesne 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.4 65.7 31.6 2.6 0.0
1st Round 100.0% 1.3 0.0 71.6 26.9 1.5 0.0
2nd Round 48.3% 0.5 51.7 43.4 4.8 0.1
Sweet Sixteen 16.9% 0.2 83.1 16.5 0.5 0.0
Elite Eight 5.9% 0.1 94.1 5.8 0.1
Final Four 2.2% 0.0 97.8 2.2
Final Game 0.8% 0.0 99.2 0.8
Champion 0.4% 0.0 99.6 0.4