Atlantic 10
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
34 Virginia Commonwealth 61.3%   11   20 - 5 11 - 2 24 - 6 15 - 3 +13.1      +6.1 48 +7.1 30 66.2 233 +10.3 56 +13.2 2
75 George Mason 17.3%   20 - 5 12 - 1 23 - 7 15 - 3 +7.6      -0.9 196 +8.4 17 62.0 334 +10.8 53 +16.8 1
78 Saint Joseph's 12.2%   16 - 10 8 - 6 20 - 11 12 - 7 +7.3      +2.5 102 +4.8 61 70.3 122 +4.6 101 +5.1 5
83 Dayton 8.7%   17 - 9 8 - 6 19 - 11 10 - 8 +6.8      +6.1 47 +0.7 155 64.6 276 +7.9 76 +4.9 6
106 St. Bonaventure 2.6%   17 - 9 6 - 8 19 - 11 8 - 10 +4.1      +0.7 160 +3.4 80 61.8 341 +5.2 91 +1.1 9
109 Saint Louis 2.8%   12 - 12 7 - 6 15 - 14 10 - 8 +3.4      +1.7 118 +1.7 128 68.4 174 +2.6 127 +5.4 4
110 Loyola Chicago 3.8%   17 - 9 9 - 5 19 - 11 11 - 7 +3.4      +0.4 165 +2.9 95 68.5 172 +4.4 102 +7.4 3
117 George Washington 1.5%   16 - 10 6 - 8 18 - 12 8 - 10 +2.8      +0.1 171 +2.7 98 69.2 150 +2.3 128 +1.5 7
121 Rhode Island 1.5%   16 - 8 6 - 7 18 - 11 8 - 10 +2.3      +1.2 138 +1.1 138 73.9 50 +4.0 109 +0.9 10
129 Davidson 0.8%   14 - 11 5 - 8 16 - 14 7 - 11 +1.7      +3.3 87 -1.5 216 64.3 287 +1.5 145 -1.2 12
132 Duquesne 0.7%   10 - 15 6 - 7 12 - 18 8 - 10 +1.6      -0.9 200 +2.6 99 63.5 304 -2.1 201 +1.4 8
168 Massachusetts 0.3%   10 - 16 6 - 8 11 - 19 7 - 11 -0.4      -2.2 233 +1.8 121 75.0 37 -3.0 215 +0.5 11
204 Fordham 0.1%   10 - 15 3 - 10 11 - 19 4 - 14 -2.4      -0.5 192 -1.8 224 72.9 59 -2.4 207 -4.4 15
218 Richmond 0.1%   8 - 17 5 - 9 9 - 20 6 - 12 -3.2      -1.7 220 -1.4 215 62.0 337 -4.4 238 -1.3 13
236 La Salle 0.0%   11 - 15 4 - 11 12 - 18 5 - 14 -4.0      -2.8 248 -1.2 209 71.4 89 -1.4 186 -3.6 14





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th 15th
Virginia Commonwealth 1.4 63.4 36.5 0.1 0.0
George Mason 1.3 67.4 32.5 0.1 0.0
Saint Joseph's 3.3 0.0 2.0 75.8 16.8 4.0 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0
Dayton 4.7 0.1 12.1 29.6 37.9 14.8 4.0 1.1 0.3 0.0 0.0
St. Bonaventure 8.1 0.1 1.1 4.5 15.1 22.2 19.2 14.9 10.2 8.0 4.4 0.3 0.1
Saint Louis 5.7 0.0 6.7 17.7 22.8 27.6 11.7 6.7 4.1 1.8 0.9 0.2
Loyola Chicago 3.8 0.7 41.0 39.0 14.4 3.6 1.2 0.2 0.0
George Washington 7.5 0.2 2.6 7.2 19.3 25.7 18.6 13.1 7.4 4.1 1.6 0.3 0.0
Rhode Island 7.9 1.0 3.2 8.2 15.3 17.4 17.1 15.2 10.7 7.7 3.6 0.5 0.0
Davidson 10.1 0.1 0.9 3.9 6.9 10.5 12.6 16.9 19.8 20.9 5.7 1.5 0.2
Duquesne 8.7 0.2 1.1 3.9 10.9 13.9 15.6 16.8 17.2 12.7 6.6 1.1 0.0 0.0
Massachusetts 9.4 0.0 0.3 1.4 6.3 11.5 14.2 15.1 18.0 19.4 12.7 1.3 0.0
Fordham 13.9 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.3 3.0 6.9 18.3 27.1 42.5
Richmond 12.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.1 2.9 6.9 17.4 52.8 16.4 1.9
La Salle 13.5 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.5 3.8 8.4 27.5 38.7 19.4




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Virginia Commonwealth 15 - 3 0.0 0.5 3.4 15.6 37.9 42.6
George Mason 15 - 3 0.1 2.1 13.2 37.9 38.3 8.4
Saint Joseph's 12 - 6 0.1 1.1 6.6 22.9 38.8 30.7
Dayton 10 - 8 1.3 13.6 39.3 37.8 8.0
St. Bonaventure 8 - 10 3.4 19.7 38.3 30.4 8.3
Saint Louis 10 - 8 2.4 13.0 28.8 33.0 19.2 3.7
Loyola Chicago 11 - 7 3.8 19.6 35.9 30.6 10.1
George Washington 8 - 10 1.8 13.4 33.8 37.2 13.8
Rhode Island 8 - 10 4.6 20.2 33.6 28.4 11.4 1.8
Davidson 7 - 11 6.3 25.2 35.2 24.7 7.8 0.7
Duquesne 8 - 10 9.8 29.9 34.0 19.4 6.1 0.8
Massachusetts 7 - 11 16.0 36.8 32.3 12.9 2.0
Fordham 4 - 14 17.2 35.8 30.7 13.3 3.0 0.2
Richmond 6 - 12 55.9 34.4 8.4 1.2 0.0
La Salle 5 - 13 36.3 42.0 18.0 3.7 0.2




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Virginia Commonwealth 63.4% 32.6 30.8 0.0
George Mason 67.4% 36.6 30.8 0.0
Saint Joseph's 0.0% 0.0
Dayton
St. Bonaventure
Saint Louis
Loyola Chicago
George Washington
Rhode Island
Davidson
Duquesne
Massachusetts
Fordham
Richmond
La Salle


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Virginia Commonwealth 61.3% 49.9% 11.4% 11   0.0 0.4 1.2 2.5 5.0 9.4 16.8 24.6 1.5 38.7 22.7%
George Mason 17.3% 15.4% 1.9% 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.2 10.7 4.7 0.1 82.8 2.2%
Saint Joseph's 12.2% 12.2% 0.0% 0.0 4.0 7.7 0.5 87.8 0.0%
Dayton 8.7% 8.5% 0.2% 0.1 0.3 4.8 3.5 0.0 91.3 0.2%
St. Bonaventure 2.6% 2.6% 0.0% 0.3 1.8 0.5 0.0 97.4 0.0%
Saint Louis 2.8% 2.8% 0.0% 0.1 1.2 1.1 0.3 0.1 97.2 0.0%
Loyola Chicago 3.8% 3.8% 0.0% 0.1 1.8 1.6 0.3 0.0 96.2 0.0%
George Washington 1.5% 1.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.8 0.5 0.1 0.0 98.5 0.0%
Rhode Island 1.5% 1.5% 0.0% 0.1 0.9 0.4 0.1 98.6 0.0%
Davidson 0.8% 0.8% 0.0% 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.0 99.2 0.0%
Duquesne 0.7% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.2 99.3 0.0%
Massachusetts 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 99.8 0.0%
Fordham 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9 0.0%
Richmond 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1 99.9 0.0%
La Salle 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 100.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Virginia Commonwealth 61.3% 6.0% 58.8% 25.5% 7.4% 2.7% 0.8% 0.2% 0.1%
George Mason 17.3% 1.8% 16.2% 3.8% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Saint Joseph's 12.2% 0.0% 12.2% 2.8% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Dayton 8.7% 0.2% 8.5% 1.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
St. Bonaventure 2.6% 0.0% 2.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Saint Louis 2.8% 0.0% 2.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Loyola Chicago 3.8% 0.0% 3.8% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
George Washington 1.5% 0.0% 1.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Rhode Island 1.5% 0.0% 1.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Davidson 0.8% 0.0% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Duquesne 0.7% 0.1% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Massachusetts 0.3% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Fordham 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Richmond 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
La Salle 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.1 86.6 13.2 0.1
1st Round 99.9% 1.1 0.1 90.2 9.7 0.0
2nd Round 34.3% 0.4 65.7 33.5 0.8
Sweet Sixteen 9.1% 0.1 90.9 9.0 0.1
Elite Eight 3.0% 0.0 97.1 3.0
Final Four 0.9% 0.0 99.1 0.9
Final Game 0.2% 0.0 99.8 0.2
Champion 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1