Preseason Rankings
Atlantic 10
2024-25


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
59 Dayton 32.8%   11   0 - 0 0 - 0 19 - 9 12 - 6 +9.1      +4.3 68 +4.8 40 61.9 340 0.0 1 0.0 1
85 Virginia Commonwealth 21.3%   0 - 0 0 - 0 18 - 10 11 - 7 +7.0      +2.9 94 +4.1 66 64.3 302 0.0 1 0.0 1
90 Saint Joseph's 20.1%   0 - 0 0 - 0 19 - 10 11 - 7 +6.9      +3.8 82 +3.1 90 70.3 120 0.0 1 0.0 1
94 Saint Louis 17.1%   0 - 0 0 - 0 17 - 12 10 - 8 +6.0      +5.8 39 +0.2 161 72.0 80 0.0 1 0.0 1
96 George Mason 14.3%   0 - 0 0 - 0 19 - 11 11 - 7 +5.9      +2.4 109 +3.5 80 61.6 343 0.0 1 0.0 1
100 Loyola Chicago 14.2%   0 - 0 0 - 0 17 - 11 10 - 8 +5.5      +1.4 132 +4.1 67 70.5 115 0.0 1 0.0 1
116 Massachusetts 5.6%   0 - 0 0 - 0 16 - 14 9 - 9 +3.0      +1.6 130 +1.4 132 70.2 125 0.0 1 0.0 1
120 St. Bonaventure 5.5%   0 - 0 0 - 0 15 - 13 9 - 9 +2.6      +1.2 136 +1.4 130 64.5 294 0.0 1 0.0 1
128 Duquesne 4.9%   0 - 0 0 - 0 14 - 14 8 - 10 +2.2      -0.2 170 +2.3 107 65.6 265 0.0 1 0.0 1
133 Richmond 4.5%   0 - 0 0 - 0 14 - 13 8 - 10 +2.0      -0.3 179 +2.3 106 66.9 226 0.0 1 0.0 1
135 Davidson 4.0%   0 - 0 0 - 0 15 - 13 8 - 10 +1.7      -0.1 169 +1.8 117 64.3 301 0.0 1 0.0 1
142 Rhode Island 3.2%   0 - 0 0 - 0 15 - 14 8 - 10 +1.1      +1.8 124 -0.7 189 70.9 103 0.0 1 0.0 1
150 George Washington 2.3%   0 - 0 0 - 0 15 - 13 7 - 11 +0.5      +2.6 106 -2.1 243 73.7 53 0.0 1 0.0 1
159 Fordham 2.3%   0 - 0 0 - 0 14 - 15 7 - 11 +0.2      -0.9 203 +1.1 135 71.2 95 0.0 1 0.0 1
173 La Salle 1.9%   0 - 0 0 - 0 11 - 15 7 - 11 -0.5      -0.2 173 -0.3 176 66.7 235 0.0 1 0.0 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th 15th
Dayton 4.1 27.5 16.2 11.8 9.5 7.4 6.0 5.0 4.0 3.4 2.7 2.2 1.7 1.3 0.9 0.4
Virginia Commonwealth 5.3 16.0 13.3 11.3 9.7 8.7 7.8 6.5 5.9 5.0 4.4 3.6 2.9 2.2 1.8 0.9
Saint Joseph's 5.2 16.9 13.5 11.5 9.7 8.7 7.4 6.4 5.6 4.8 4.1 3.5 2.9 2.4 1.7 1.0
Saint Louis 6.3 11.8 9.8 9.6 8.6 8.4 8.0 7.3 6.8 6.1 5.8 5.2 4.4 3.6 2.8 1.8
George Mason 5.5 14.1 12.6 11.3 9.9 8.8 7.6 6.9 6.1 5.1 4.8 3.9 3.2 2.4 2.0 1.3
Loyola Chicago 6.5 10.7 9.4 9.1 8.6 8.4 7.9 7.6 6.9 6.3 6.0 5.4 4.5 4.1 3.1 2.2
Massachusetts 7.6 6.0 6.8 7.4 7.5 7.8 7.6 7.4 7.4 7.3 7.1 6.7 6.0 5.9 5.0 4.2
St. Bonaventure 8.1 4.9 5.6 6.5 6.7 7.0 7.5 7.4 7.5 7.4 7.5 7.1 6.9 6.7 6.0 5.0
Duquesne 8.6 4.2 4.8 5.4 5.8 6.3 6.5 7.0 7.3 7.3 7.8 7.7 7.9 7.8 7.6 6.5
Richmond 8.6 3.8 4.9 5.4 6.1 6.5 6.9 7.1 7.3 7.4 7.6 7.9 7.9 7.7 7.4 6.2
Davidson 8.7 3.5 4.6 5.4 6.0 6.3 7.0 7.1 7.3 7.4 7.6 7.8 7.7 7.6 7.7 6.9
Rhode Island 9.0 3.0 4.2 4.7 5.5 5.9 6.2 7.0 7.5 7.7 7.9 8.2 8.3 8.3 8.1 7.7
George Washington 9.5 2.5 3.4 4.2 4.6 5.1 5.8 6.1 6.7 7.2 7.8 8.2 8.8 9.2 9.8 10.4
Fordham 9.6 2.1 3.1 3.9 4.4 5.1 5.7 6.2 6.9 7.3 7.9 8.4 9.1 9.6 9.8 10.6
La Salle 10.1 1.6 2.4 3.1 3.8 4.5 5.2 5.8 6.6 7.2 7.9 8.9 9.0 10.6 11.2 12.2




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Dayton 12 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.4 2.4 3.6 5.2 6.9 8.9 10.8 11.9 12.5 12.0 10.1 7.4 4.3 1.5
Virginia Commonwealth 11 - 7 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.5 2.7 4.0 5.8 7.9 9.6 10.8 12.0 11.8 10.7 8.9 6.6 4.1 1.8 0.6
Saint Joseph's 11 - 7 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.5 2.7 4.1 5.7 7.4 9.1 10.9 11.6 11.8 10.6 9.3 7.0 4.4 2.2 0.6
Saint Louis 10 - 8 0.0 0.3 0.6 1.4 2.6 4.2 5.9 7.9 9.6 10.5 11.5 11.0 10.3 8.6 6.6 4.6 2.7 1.3 0.3
George Mason 11 - 7 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.8 2.8 4.4 6.3 8.3 9.9 11.3 11.8 11.6 10.3 8.7 5.8 3.6 1.7 0.5
Loyola Chicago 10 - 8 0.0 0.3 0.8 1.7 3.0 4.4 6.4 8.2 9.7 10.7 11.7 10.8 9.9 8.3 6.1 4.3 2.4 1.0 0.3
Massachusetts 9 - 9 0.1 0.6 1.4 2.9 4.5 6.3 8.4 10.1 10.9 11.0 10.9 9.8 8.0 6.2 4.2 2.5 1.4 0.5 0.1
St. Bonaventure 9 - 9 0.2 0.8 1.8 3.7 5.3 7.4 9.2 10.6 11.3 11.1 10.4 8.8 7.2 5.2 3.5 2.0 0.9 0.4 0.1
Duquesne 8 - 10 0.3 1.1 2.6 4.4 6.4 8.9 10.3 11.1 11.1 10.5 9.3 7.9 6.1 4.3 2.8 1.6 0.8 0.3 0.0
Richmond 8 - 10 0.3 1.1 2.5 4.4 6.5 8.5 10.2 11.2 11.0 10.7 9.7 8.0 6.2 4.4 2.9 1.5 0.7 0.3 0.0
Davidson 8 - 10 0.3 1.2 2.7 4.5 6.6 8.7 10.1 10.9 11.1 10.9 9.7 8.1 5.9 4.3 2.7 1.4 0.6 0.2 0.1
Rhode Island 8 - 10 0.3 1.3 2.9 5.0 7.2 9.2 11.0 11.4 11.6 10.4 9.1 7.1 5.5 3.7 2.4 1.3 0.5 0.2 0.0
George Washington 7 - 11 0.5 2.1 4.1 6.5 8.4 10.2 11.1 11.2 10.8 9.4 8.0 6.2 4.6 3.2 1.8 1.1 0.5 0.1 0.0
Fordham 7 - 11 0.6 2.0 4.1 6.5 8.5 10.7 11.5 11.4 10.8 9.7 7.9 6.1 4.4 2.8 1.7 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0
La Salle 7 - 11 0.7 2.5 4.7 7.7 9.6 11.1 12.1 11.7 10.7 9.0 7.0 5.2 3.6 2.1 1.3 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Dayton 27.5% 18.4 6.7 1.8 0.4 0.1 0.0
Virginia Commonwealth 16.0% 10.0 4.3 1.3 0.3 0.1 0.0
Saint Joseph's 16.9% 10.4 4.6 1.5 0.3 0.1 0.0
Saint Louis 11.8% 7.2 3.2 1.0 0.3 0.1 0.0
George Mason 14.1% 8.3 4.1 1.2 0.3 0.1 0.0
Loyola Chicago 10.7% 6.5 3.0 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0
Massachusetts 6.0% 3.3 1.8 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0
St. Bonaventure 4.9% 2.6 1.6 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0
Duquesne 4.2% 2.2 1.3 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0
Richmond 3.8% 2.0 1.2 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0
Davidson 3.5% 1.8 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.0
Rhode Island 3.0% 1.5 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
George Washington 2.5% 1.3 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Fordham 2.1% 1.0 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
La Salle 1.6% 0.8 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Dayton 32.8% 20.2% 12.7% 11   0.6 1.1 1.5 2.2 2.1 2.4 2.3 2.4 3.1 4.3 7.0 3.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 67.2 15.9%
Virginia Commonwealth 21.3% 12.8% 8.5% 0.3 0.4 0.7 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.5 1.7 2.1 3.0 5.2 2.5 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 78.7 9.7%
Saint Joseph's 20.1% 12.3% 7.9% 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.9 1.0 1.2 1.1 1.4 1.9 2.9 5.3 2.9 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 79.9 9.0%
Saint Louis 17.1% 9.9% 7.1% 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.8 0.8 1.1 1.1 1.6 2.3 4.8 2.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 82.9 7.9%
George Mason 14.3% 9.8% 4.5% 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.7 1.1 1.7 4.3 3.3 0.8 0.1 0.0 0.0 85.7 5.0%
Loyola Chicago 14.2% 8.8% 5.4% 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 1.2 1.7 4.3 2.8 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 85.8 5.9%
Massachusetts 5.6% 4.5% 1.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 1.5 1.8 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0 94.4 1.2%
St. Bonaventure 5.5% 3.9% 1.6% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.5 1.7 1.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 94.5 1.6%
Duquesne 4.9% 3.4% 1.4% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 1.5 1.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 95.1 1.5%
Richmond 4.5% 3.3% 1.3% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.5 1.3 1.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 95.5 1.3%
Davidson 4.0% 3.1% 0.9% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 1.2 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 96.0 0.9%
Rhode Island 3.2% 2.7% 0.6% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.8 1.2 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 96.8 0.6%
George Washington 2.3% 2.0% 0.3% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.5 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 97.7 0.3%
Fordham 2.3% 1.8% 0.6% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 97.7 0.6%
La Salle 1.9% 1.5% 0.3% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.5 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 98.1 0.3%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Dayton 32.8% 2.9% 31.5% 17.2% 7.2% 3.0% 1.2% 0.5% 0.2%
Virginia Commonwealth 21.3% 2.1% 20.2% 9.8% 3.6% 1.3% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1%
Saint Joseph's 20.1% 2.5% 18.9% 8.9% 3.1% 1.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1%
Saint Louis 17.1% 2.5% 15.8% 7.2% 2.5% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
George Mason 14.3% 1.9% 13.4% 5.4% 1.9% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%
Loyola Chicago 14.2% 2.1% 13.2% 5.6% 1.9% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
Massachusetts 5.6% 0.7% 5.3% 1.7% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
St. Bonaventure 5.5% 0.7% 5.1% 1.7% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Duquesne 4.9% 0.8% 4.5% 1.5% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Richmond 4.5% 0.6% 4.2% 1.4% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Davidson 4.0% 0.4% 3.8% 1.2% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Rhode Island 3.2% 0.3% 3.1% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
George Washington 2.3% 0.2% 2.2% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Fordham 2.3% 0.2% 2.2% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
La Salle 1.9% 0.2% 1.8% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.5 55.4 36.1 7.7 0.8 0.0
1st Round 100.0% 1.5 0.0 61.3 32.7 5.6 0.4 0.0
2nd Round 53.8% 0.6 46.2 44.1 9.1 0.7 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 21.8% 0.2 78.2 20.5 1.3 0.0
Elite Eight 8.4% 0.1 91.6 8.2 0.2 0.0
Final Four 3.2% 0.0 96.8 3.2 0.0
Final Game 1.2% 0.0 98.8 1.2 0.0
Champion 0.4% 0.0 99.6 0.4