Atlantic 10
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace Results Rating Conf Results Rating
24 Saint Louis 92.5%   10   25 - 3 14 - 2 +15.8      +8.1 40 +7.7 24 77.0 17 +15.0 31 +15.1 1
49 Virginia Commonwealth 44.2%   23 - 7 14 - 3 +11.2      +7.1 46 +4.1 71 72.4 75 +11.7 49 +13.3 2
75 Dayton 10.5%   21 - 9 12 - 5 +7.7      +1.7 126 +6.0 39 68.0 190 +9.7 63 +9.9 3
78 George Washington 4.6%   15 - 13 7 - 9 +7.5      +6.8 49 +0.7 145 72.3 78 +2.1 126 +1.3 9
105 George Mason 1.7%   21 - 8 10 - 7 +4.2      +2.6 104 +1.6 130 61.8 342 +6.8 88 +5.5 5
111 Davidson 1.5%   16 - 11 9 - 7 +3.6      +0.8 143 +2.8 98 61.5 345 +4.7 104 +4.6 6
116 Saint Joseph's 2.3%   17 - 10 11 - 5 +3.1      -2.5 238 +5.6 43 69.5 146 +4.7 103 +7.8 4
120 Duquesne 1.0%   14 - 13 8 - 8 +2.9      +1.4 132 +1.5 131 72.6 73 +2.2 125 +4.5 7
135 Rhode Island 0.4%   15 - 14 6 - 10 +1.6      -1.6 213 +3.2 85 66.0 251 +1.2 142 0.0 10
136 Richmond 0.3%   14 - 15 5 - 12 +1.5      +1.4 133 +0.1 166 69.0 165 -0.3 163 -1.9 11
138 St. Bonaventure 0.2%   14 - 14 4 - 12 +1.2      +3.7 89 -2.5 249 67.1 219 +0.5 148 -4.0 13
159 Fordham 0.2%   13 - 13 7 - 9 0.0      -3.5 262 +3.4 82 62.1 337 -1.7 190 +2.3 8
210 La Salle 0.0%   7 - 21 4 - 12 -2.8      -3.7 267 +0.9 142 64.3 294 -3.5 228 -2.1 12
279 Loyola Chicago 0.0%   7 - 22 3 - 13 -6.6      -4.1 280 -2.5 253 66.8 226 -7.3 286 -4.6 14


Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Interest
Sat, Feb 28 120 Duquesne 76 24 Saint Louis 91   
Sat, Feb 28 135 Rhode Island 55 116 Saint Joseph's 61   
Sat, Feb 28 159 Fordham 63 49 Virginia Commonwealth 82   
Sat, Feb 28 279 Loyola Chicago 69 136 Richmond 66   
Sat, Feb 28 105 George Mason 71 138 St. Bonaventure 58   
Sun, Mar 1 111 Davidson 71 210 La Salle 64   
Tue, Mar 3 105 George Mason 65 49 Virginia Commonwealth 70   
Tue, Mar 3 75 Dayton 65 136 Richmond 60   


Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Interest
Wed, Mar 4 111 Davidson 68 116 Saint Joseph's 64 63%   
Wed, Mar 4 135 Rhode Island 73 120 Duquesne 72 56%   
Wed, Mar 4 78 George Washington 86 138 St. Bonaventure 77 81%   
Wed, Mar 4 159 Fordham 62 210 La Salle 63 51%   
Wed, Mar 4 279 Loyola Chicago 64 24 Saint Louis 90 98%   
Fri, Mar 6 75 Dayton 75 49 Virginia Commonwealth 76 52%   
Sat, Mar 7 120 Duquesne 79 136 Richmond 75 67%   
Sat, Mar 7 111 Davidson 71 138 St. Bonaventure 72 53%   
Sat, Mar 7 159 Fordham 65 135 Rhode Island 63 55%   
Sat, Mar 7 105 George Mason 71 24 Saint Louis 79 79%   
Sat, Mar 7 210 La Salle 62 116 Saint Joseph's 71 80%   
Sat, Mar 7 78 George Washington 83 279 Loyola Chicago 72 85%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Season

Projected Place
Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th
Saint Louis 1.0 99.9 0.1
Virginia Commonwealth 1.9 11.5 88.5
Dayton 3.2 84.3 15.7
Saint Joseph's 3.4 59.5 40.5
George Mason 5.2 2.6 72.6 24.8
Davidson 5.3 6.3 63.4 24.5 5.9
Duquesne 6.6 16.2 21.9 46.8 11.4 3.6
George Washington 7.4 10.0 46.5 34.4 8.7 0.4
Fordham 8.4 4.0 20.0 26.1 37.0 13.0
Rhode Island 9.5 2.7 11.3 22.5 63.5
Richmond 11.1 8.1 79.1 12.3 0.5
St. Bonaventure 11.8 2.5 37.2 34.8 25.5 0.0
La Salle 11.8 2.4 37.3 34.5 25.8 0.1
Loyola Chicago 13.9 0.1 2.5 7.3 90.1

Projected Wins
Team Exp Conf Record Exp Overall Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Saint Louis 16 - 2 27 - 3 0.2 21.4 78.3
Virginia Commonwealth 15 - 3 24 - 7 48.1 51.9
Dayton 12 - 6 21 - 10 51.9 48.1
Saint Joseph's 12 - 6 18 - 11 12.8 57.0 30.2
George Mason 10 - 8 21 - 9 79.0 21.0
Davidson 10 - 8 17 - 12 20.1 48.5 31.3
Duquesne 9 - 9 15 - 14 19.4 50.7 29.9
George Washington 9 - 9 17 - 13 3.0 27.7 69.2
Fordham 8 - 10 14 - 14 23.3 48.6 28.1
Rhode Island 7 - 11 16 - 15 25.1 49.4 25.6
Richmond 5 - 13 14 - 16 66.3 33.7
St. Bonaventure 5 - 13 15 - 15 39.6 50.2 10.2
La Salle 5 - 13 8 - 22 40.0 49.7 10.3
Loyola Chicago 3 - 15 7 - 24 84.3 15.5 0.2

Projected Regular Season Champion
Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Saint Louis 99.9% 88.5 11.4
Virginia Commonwealth 11.5% 0.1 11.4
Dayton
Saint Joseph's
George Mason
Davidson
Duquesne
George Washington
Fordham
Rhode Island
Richmond
St. Bonaventure
La Salle
Loyola Chicago


NCAA Tournament Selection and Simulation

Tournament Selection
TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Saint Louis 92.5% 54.5% 38.1% 10   0.0 0.1 0.7 3.7 9.2 17.0 24.0 27.3 10.6 0.0 7.5 83.6%
Virginia Commonwealth 44.2% 24.7% 19.5% 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.6 7.6 32.7 1.9 0.0 55.8 25.9%
Dayton 10.5% 8.6% 1.9% 0.0 0.5 8.0 2.0 0.0 89.5 2.1%
George Washington 4.6% 4.6% 0.0% 1.1 3.0 0.4 0.0 95.4 0.0%
George Mason 1.7% 1.7% 0.0% 0.2 1.2 0.4 0.0 98.3 0.0%
Davidson 1.5% 1.5% 0.0% 0.1 1.1 0.3 0.0 98.5 0.0%
Saint Joseph's 2.3% 2.3% 0.0% 0.1 1.2 0.9 0.1 0.0 97.7 0.0%
Duquesne 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.4 0.4 0.1 99.0 0.0%
Rhode Island 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 99.6 0.0%
Richmond 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 99.7 0.0%
St. Bonaventure 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 99.8 0.0%
Fordham 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 99.8 0.0%
La Salle 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%
Loyola Chicago 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%

Conference Totals
Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.6 44.6 51.4 4.0 0.0
1st Round 100.0% 1.5 56.4 41.9 1.7
2nd Round 57.6% 0.6 42.4 51.7 5.9 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 14.7% 0.1 85.3 14.4 0.3
Elite Eight 5.6% 0.1 94.4 5.6 0.0
Final Four 1.5% 0.0 98.5 1.5
Final Game 0.4% 0.0 99.6 0.4
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.1

Tournament Simulation
TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Saint Louis 92.5% 10.5% 88.7% 49.2% 12.3% 5.0% 1.5% 0.3% 0.0%
Virginia Commonwealth 44.2% 17.4% 35.0% 11.2% 2.2% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Dayton 10.5% 1.9% 9.4% 1.9% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
George Washington 4.6% 0.0% 4.6% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
George Mason 1.7% 0.0% 1.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Davidson 1.5% 0.0% 1.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Saint Joseph's 2.3% 0.0% 2.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Duquesne 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Rhode Island 0.4% 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Richmond 0.3% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
St. Bonaventure 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Fordham 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
La Salle 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Loyola Chicago 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%