Davidson
Atlantic 10
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+1.6#137
Expected Predictive Rating+10.5#61
Pace65.3#290
Improvement-2.9#339

Offense
Total Offense+1.1#135
First Shot+3.8#74
After Offensive Rebound-2.7#323
Layup/Dunks-4.7#321
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.5#64
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.7#49
Freethrows+1.3#117
Improvement-0.2#192

Defense
Total Defense+0.5#155
First Shot-0.7#196
After Offensive Rebounds+1.2#106
Layups/Dunks+1.4#127
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.4#346
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.3#96
Freethrows-1.0#245
Improvement-2.7#347
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.6% 2.2% 1.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.2% 0.4% 0.1%
Average Seed 11.6 11.1 11.8
.500 or above 75.5% 89.2% 70.8%
.500 or above in Conference 50.8% 59.4% 47.8%
Conference Champion 1.6% 2.6% 1.3%
Last Place in Conference 3.1% 1.8% 3.5%
First Four0.1% 0.3% 0.1%
First Round1.5% 2.0% 1.3%
Second Round0.2% 0.4% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: St. Mary's (Home) - 25.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 30 - 4
Quad 22 - 52 - 9
Quad 36 - 38 - 12
Quad 49 - 117 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Fri, Nov 7 158 Washington St. W 85-69 68%     1 - 0 +12.8 +8.6 +4.2
  Tue, Nov 11 186 @Charlotte W 62-55 52%     2 - 0 +8.1 +0.9 +8.6
  Sat, Nov 15 119 Bowling Green W 91-87 56%     3 - 0 +4.2 +9.8 -6.1
  Fri, Nov 21 132 Boston College W 59-49 49%     4 - 0 +11.9 +3.0 +11.1
  Sun, Nov 23 51 Utah St. L 60-94 20%     4 - 1 -23.4 -8.4 -14.8
  Fri, Nov 28 323 N.C. A&T W 90-74 90%     5 - 1 +3.8 +17.6 -12.8
  Thu, Dec 4 363 The Citadel W 79-63 96%     6 - 1 -2.0 +2.3 -2.8
  Sun, Dec 7 42 St. Mary's L 65-72 26%    
  Sat, Dec 13 328 Mercyhurst W 74-60 91%    
  Thu, Dec 18 157 Temple W 78-73 68%    
  Mon, Dec 22 18 @Kansas L 61-78 5%    
  Tue, Dec 30 135 Duquesne W 77-74 61%    
  Sat, Jan 3 184 @Saint Joseph's W 72-71 51%    
  Wed, Jan 7 259 @Loyola Chicago W 72-68 66%    
  Sat, Jan 10 110 Rhode Island W 72-71 53%    
  Wed, Jan 14 62 @George Washington L 73-83 17%    
  Wed, Jan 21 211 Fordham W 72-64 75%    
  Sat, Jan 24 43 Virginia Commonwealth L 68-75 28%    
  Wed, Jan 28 66 @George Mason L 64-74 19%    
  Sat, Jan 31 104 @Richmond L 69-75 31%    
  Tue, Feb 3 46 Saint Louis L 72-78 29%    
  Fri, Feb 6 259 Loyola Chicago W 75-65 82%    
  Sun, Feb 15 67 @Dayton L 66-76 19%    
  Wed, Feb 18 104 Richmond W 73-72 50%    
  Sat, Feb 21 211 @Fordham W 69-67 57%    
  Wed, Feb 25 135 @Duquesne L 74-77 39%    
  Sun, Mar 1 229 La Salle W 73-64 78%    
  Wed, Mar 4 184 Saint Joseph's W 75-69 71%    
  Sat, Mar 7 111 @St. Bonaventure L 66-71 32%    
Projected Record 16 - 13 9 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic 10 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 1.6 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 1.4 1.1 0.2 0.0 3.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 2.1 1.8 0.4 0.0 4.8 3rd
4th 0.0 0.6 2.7 2.9 0.6 0.0 6.8 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 3.1 4.3 1.2 0.0 9.0 5th
6th 0.3 2.9 5.0 2.2 0.2 10.5 6th
7th 0.2 2.1 5.7 3.1 0.3 11.3 7th
8th 0.1 1.8 5.6 4.6 0.6 12.7 8th
9th 0.0 1.1 5.3 4.5 0.8 0.0 11.8 9th
10th 0.0 0.7 4.0 4.5 1.3 0.0 10.4 10th
11th 0.0 0.4 2.4 3.8 1.1 0.1 7.8 11th
12th 0.2 1.8 2.5 0.8 0.1 0.0 5.5 12th
13th 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.5 0.5 0.0 3.1 13th
14th 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.6 0.2 0.1 1.4 14th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.6 3.9 6.2 9.9 13.0 14.0 14.5 12.4 9.9 6.9 4.0 2.0 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 Total



Atlantic 10 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1 0.0
16-2 93.3% 0.2    0.2 0.0
15-3 66.4% 0.5    0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0
14-4 27.4% 0.6    0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0
13-5 5.9% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
12-6 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 1.6% 1.6 0.6 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 0.0
17-1 0.1% 43.5% 8.7% 34.8% 9.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 38.1%
16-2 0.3% 32.0% 18.7% 13.3% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 16.4%
15-3 0.8% 17.7% 11.5% 6.2% 10.9 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.6 7.0%
14-4 2.0% 8.8% 7.5% 1.3% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 1.9 1.4%
13-5 4.0% 7.3% 6.6% 0.7% 11.3 0.0 0.2 0.1 3.7 0.7%
12-6 6.9% 3.4% 3.3% 0.2% 11.5 0.1 0.1 0.0 6.6 0.2%
11-7 9.9% 1.8% 1.8% 11.8 0.1 0.1 0.0 9.7
10-8 12.4% 1.6% 1.6% 12.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 12.2
9-9 14.5% 0.7% 0.7% 12.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 14.4
8-10 14.0% 0.5% 0.5% 13.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 13.9
7-11 13.0% 0.2% 0.2% 13.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 13.0
6-12 9.9% 0.1% 0.1% 14.0 0.0 9.9
5-13 6.2% 0.2% 0.2% 15.0 0.0 0.0 6.1
4-14 3.9% 3.9
3-15 1.6% 1.6
2-16 0.6% 0.6
1-17 0.1% 0.1
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 1.6% 1.4% 0.2% 11.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.7 0.5 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 98.4 0.2%