Virginia Commonwealth
Atlantic 10
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+13.1#34
Expected Predictive Rating+10.3#56
Pace66.2#233
Improvement+3.0#64

Offense
Total Offense+6.1#48
First Shot-0.2#178
After Offensive Rebound+6.2#2
Layup/Dunks-1.7#244
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.2#184
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.7#121
Freethrows+0.1#167
Improvement+4.4#19

Defense
Total Defense+7.1#30
First Shot+7.6#16
After Offensive Rebounds-0.5#226
Layups/Dunks+3.3#65
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.0#318
3 Pt Jumpshots+7.0#4
Freethrows-0.7#240
Improvement-1.4#265
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 1.6% 2.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 61.3% 64.0% 50.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 22.7% 26.3% 10.4%
Average Seed 9.9 9.7 10.7
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 63.4% 77.5% 9.8%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four6.0% 6.4% 4.5%
First Round58.8% 61.3% 49.2%
Second Round25.5% 27.0% 19.9%
Sweet Sixteen7.4% 7.8% 5.8%
Elite Eight2.7% 3.0% 1.6%
Final Four0.8% 1.0% 0.3%
Championship Game0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
National Champion0.1% 0.1% 0.0%

Next Game: George Mason (Home) - 79.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 11 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b1 - 11 - 1
Quad 27 - 48 - 5
Quad 37 - 115 - 6
Quad 412 - 026 - 6


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 340   Bellarmine W 84-65 99%     1 - 0 +4.8 +4.3 +1.5
  Nov 08, 2024 174   Boston College W 80-55 90%     2 - 0 +24.4 +5.1 +18.6
  Nov 13, 2024 214   Merrimack W 63-42 95%     3 - 0 +15.8 -8.7 +24.2
  Nov 16, 2024 325   Loyola Maryland W 83-57 98%     4 - 0 +13.5 +2.6 +10.3
  Nov 21, 2024 167   Seton Hall L 66-69 OT 89%     4 - 1 -3.4 -8.9 +5.8
  Nov 22, 2024 80   Nevada L 61-64 72%     4 - 2 +4.2 +1.1 +2.7
  Nov 24, 2024 152   Miami (FL) W 77-70 88%     5 - 2 +7.6 +7.6 +0.7
  Dec 04, 2024 248   Georgia Southern W 89-54 96%     6 - 2 +27.6 +14.9 +13.7
  Dec 09, 2024 260   Penn W 66-47 96%     7 - 2 +11.1 -6.5 +19.2
  Dec 14, 2024 67   Colorado St. W 76-68 68%     8 - 2 +16.3 +10.8 +6.0
  Dec 18, 2024 38   @ New Mexico L 71-78 43%     8 - 3 +7.9 +3.8 +4.4
  Dec 22, 2024 216   William & Mary W 90-70 95%     9 - 3 +14.5 +8.5 +5.1
  Dec 31, 2024 106   @ St. Bonaventure L 75-77 74%     9 - 4 0 - 1 +4.6 +16.3 -12.0
  Jan 04, 2025 110   @ Loyola Chicago W 84-65 76%     10 - 4 1 - 1 +24.9 +21.6 +4.7
  Jan 08, 2025 204   Fordham W 73-61 94%     11 - 4 2 - 1 +7.1 +1.5 +6.3
  Jan 14, 2025 109   Saint Louis W 78-62 87%     12 - 4 3 - 1 +16.8 +13.1 +5.3
  Jan 17, 2025 78   @ Saint Joseph's W 78-69 62%     13 - 4 4 - 1 +18.9 +10.0 +8.7
  Jan 21, 2025 121   @ Rhode Island W 81-57 79%     14 - 4 5 - 1 +28.8 +2.8 +23.7
  Jan 24, 2025 106   St. Bonaventure W 75-61 86%     15 - 4 6 - 1 +15.5 +8.1 +8.1
  Jan 28, 2025 109   @ Saint Louis L 69-78 76%     15 - 5 6 - 2 -3.1 -4.1 +1.4
  Feb 01, 2025 218   Richmond W 90-49 95%     16 - 5 7 - 2 +35.3 +30.9 +11.9
  Feb 04, 2025 236   La Salle W 96-66 96%     17 - 5 8 - 2 +23.4 +27.8 -2.2
  Feb 07, 2025 83   @ Dayton W 73-68 64%     18 - 5 9 - 2 +14.3 +2.8 +11.6
  Feb 12, 2025 117   @ George Washington W 80-72 77%     19 - 5 10 - 2 +13.3 +19.0 -4.9
  Feb 19, 2025 168   Massachusetts W 80-51 92%     20 - 5 11 - 2 +26.1 +17.2 +12.3
  Feb 22, 2025 75   George Mason W 67-59 79%    
  Feb 25, 2025 218   @ Richmond W 74-60 90%    
  Feb 28, 2025 129   Davidson W 78-64 91%    
  Mar 04, 2025 132   @ Duquesne W 71-62 78%    
  Mar 07, 2025 83   Dayton W 76-67 81%    
Projected Record 24 - 6 15 - 3




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic 10 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.5 19.2 42.6 63.4 1st
2nd 0.3 3.4 14.1 18.6 36.5 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.0 0.0 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
15th 15th
Total 0.0 0.5 3.4 15.6 37.9 42.6 Total



Atlantic 10 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 100.0% 42.6    26.8 15.8
15-3 50.8% 19.2    5.5 13.7
14-4 9.8% 1.5    0.2 1.3
13-5 1.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8
9-9
Total 63.4% 63.4 32.6 30.8 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 42.6% 70.5% 53.7% 16.8% 9.1 0.0 0.4 1.2 2.5 4.7 7.8 8.4 5.0 0.1 12.6 36.2%
15-3 37.9% 58.8% 49.6% 9.1% 10.5 0.0 0.3 1.5 7.0 12.9 0.6 15.6 18.1%
14-4 15.6% 47.2% 42.8% 4.4% 10.8 0.0 0.1 1.3 5.5 0.5 8.3 7.7%
13-5 3.4% 43.0% 41.3% 1.7% 11.1 0.1 1.1 0.3 2.0 3.0%
12-6 0.5% 30.4% 30.4% 11.3 0.1 0.0 0.3
11-7 0.0% 0.0
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 61.3% 49.9% 11.4% 9.9 0.0 0.4 1.2 2.5 5.0 9.4 16.8 24.6 1.5 38.7 22.7%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 22.9% 100.0% 8.8 0.2 1.6 5.2 10.7 19.5 30.3 23.4 8.8 0.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 6.5% 43.1% 10.1 1.7 6.2 20.8 14.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 7.6% 35.3% 10.3 0.1 0.9 4.0 14.6 15.3 0.4