Preseason Rankings
Virginia Commonwealth
Atlantic 10
2024-25
Overall
Predictive Rating+7.0#85
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace64.3#302
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+2.9#94
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+4.1#66
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.3% 0.3% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.7% 0.7% 0.1%
Top 4 Seed 2.4% 2.5% 0.5%
Top 6 Seed 5.0% 5.2% 1.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 21.3% 22.0% 8.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 9.7% 10.2% 2.4%
Average Seed 8.7 8.7 10.0
.500 or above 84.8% 86.2% 58.6%
.500 or above in Conference 76.7% 77.9% 55.9%
Conference Champion 16.0% 16.5% 6.7%
Last Place in Conference 2.0% 1.8% 6.0%
First Four2.1% 2.2% 0.7%
First Round20.2% 20.9% 7.6%
Second Round9.8% 10.2% 3.0%
Sweet Sixteen3.6% 3.7% 1.0%
Elite Eight1.3% 1.4% 0.2%
Final Four0.5% 0.5% 0.0%
Championship Game0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
National Champion0.1% 0.1% 0.0%

Next Game: Bellarmine (Home) - 94.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b1 - 21 - 3
Quad 23 - 44 - 7
Quad 37 - 312 - 10
Quad 48 - 119 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 299   Bellarmine W 75-58 95%    
  Nov 08, 2024 114   Boston College W 70-66 63%    
  Nov 13, 2024 243   Merrimack W 72-58 90%    
  Nov 16, 2024 350   Loyola Maryland W 77-54 98%    
  Nov 21, 2024 68   Seton Hall L 66-67 46%    
  Dec 04, 2024 209   Georgia Southern W 76-64 86%    
  Dec 09, 2024 166   Penn W 73-63 81%    
  Dec 14, 2024 84   Colorado St. L 66-67 50%    
  Dec 18, 2024 70   @ New Mexico L 72-76 36%    
  Dec 22, 2024 247   William & Mary W 74-60 88%    
  Dec 31, 2024 120   @ St. Bonaventure W 67-66 55%    
  Jan 04, 2025 100   @ Loyola Chicago L 67-69 45%    
  Jan 08, 2025 159   Fordham W 74-64 80%    
  Jan 14, 2025 94   Saint Louis W 75-71 63%    
  Jan 17, 2025 90   @ Saint Joseph's L 68-71 40%    
  Jan 21, 2025 142   @ Rhode Island W 72-69 60%    
  Jan 24, 2025 120   St. Bonaventure W 70-63 73%    
  Jan 28, 2025 94   @ Saint Louis L 72-74 44%    
  Feb 01, 2025 133   Richmond W 70-62 75%    
  Feb 04, 2025 173   La Salle W 73-63 81%    
  Feb 07, 2025 59   @ Dayton L 62-67 34%    
  Feb 12, 2025 150   @ George Washington W 75-71 62%    
  Feb 19, 2025 116   Massachusetts W 73-66 72%    
  Feb 22, 2025 96   George Mason W 66-62 63%    
  Feb 25, 2025 133   @ Richmond W 67-65 57%    
  Feb 28, 2025 135   Davidson W 69-61 75%    
  Mar 04, 2025 128   @ Duquesne W 67-65 56%    
  Mar 07, 2025 59   Dayton W 65-64 53%    
Projected Record 18 - 10 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic 10 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.4 3.5 4.7 3.7 1.8 0.6 16.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 2.0 4.7 4.2 1.8 0.4 0.0 13.3 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.7 4.7 3.6 1.1 0.1 0.0 11.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.9 4.1 3.6 0.9 0.1 9.7 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 3.1 4.1 1.1 0.1 0.0 8.7 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 1.8 4.1 1.6 0.1 7.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.8 3.4 2.1 0.2 0.0 6.5 7th
8th 0.2 2.3 2.9 0.5 0.0 5.9 8th
9th 0.1 1.2 2.8 0.9 0.0 5.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.5 2.1 1.6 0.1 4.4 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 1.4 1.6 0.3 0.0 3.6 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.8 1.4 0.6 0.0 2.9 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.0 0.6 0.1 2.2 13th
14th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.5 0.1 0.0 1.8 14th
15th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.9 15th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.5 2.7 4.0 5.8 7.9 9.6 10.8 12.0 11.8 10.7 8.9 6.6 4.1 1.8 0.6 Total



Atlantic 10 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.6    0.6
17-1 99.3% 1.8    1.7 0.1
16-2 91.0% 3.7    3.1 0.6 0.0
15-3 71.3% 4.7    2.9 1.6 0.2 0.0
14-4 39.9% 3.5    1.4 1.5 0.5 0.1 0.0
13-5 13.2% 1.4    0.3 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.0
12-6 1.8% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 16.0% 16.0 10.0 4.3 1.3 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.6% 97.6% 57.7% 40.0% 3.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 94.4%
17-1 1.8% 95.5% 49.5% 46.0% 4.5 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 91.1%
16-2 4.1% 83.6% 40.3% 43.3% 6.5 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.7 72.5%
15-3 6.6% 65.7% 31.5% 34.2% 8.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.6 0.1 2.3 49.9%
14-4 8.9% 45.5% 24.8% 20.7% 9.7 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.9 1.3 0.3 0.0 4.8 27.5%
13-5 10.7% 27.7% 18.3% 9.4% 10.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.4 0.4 0.0 7.7 11.5%
12-6 11.8% 17.2% 13.9% 3.3% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 1.0 0.6 0.1 0.0 9.7 3.9%
11-7 12.0% 9.2% 8.2% 1.0% 11.4 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.4 0.1 10.8 1.1%
10-8 10.8% 5.4% 5.0% 0.3% 11.7 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 10.3 0.4%
9-9 9.6% 2.9% 2.9% 0.1% 12.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 9.3 0.1%
8-10 7.9% 1.9% 1.9% 12.4 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.8
7-11 5.8% 0.9% 0.9% 12.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.8
6-12 4.0% 0.4% 0.4% 13.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.0
5-13 2.7% 0.3% 0.3% 15.3 0.0 0.0 2.7
4-14 1.5% 1.5
3-15 0.8% 0.8
2-16 0.3% 0.3
1-17 0.1% 0.1
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 21.3% 12.8% 8.5% 8.7 0.3 0.4 0.7 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.5 1.7 2.1 3.0 5.2 2.5 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 78.7 9.7%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 1.9 33.8 47.3 15.5 3.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.0% 100.0% 2.4 7.5 49.3 35.8 7.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.0% 100.0% 1.6 60.0 20.0 20.0