Nevada
Mountain West
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+10.0#52
Expected Predictive Rating+8.5#71
Pace62.9#327
Improvement-3.3#337

Offense
Total Offense+5.8#45
First Shot+7.2#26
After Offensive Rebound-1.5#269
Layup/Dunks+0.8#148
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.7#46
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.2#111
Freethrows+1.5#96
Improvement-0.5#230

Defense
Total Defense+4.3#74
First Shot+3.6#72
After Offensive Rebounds+0.7#121
Layups/Dunks+3.4#70
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.8#262
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.3#204
Freethrows+1.3#93
Improvement-2.7#344
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.8% 1.0% 0.1%
Top 6 Seed 2.4% 2.9% 0.3%
NCAA Tourney Bid 31.1% 33.7% 21.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 14.3% 16.1% 8.0%
Average Seed 9.8 9.7 10.4
.500 or above 99.3% 99.7% 98.0%
.500 or above in Conference 95.5% 97.1% 89.3%
Conference Champion 25.2% 28.5% 12.7%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four5.0% 5.3% 3.8%
First Round28.7% 31.1% 19.5%
Second Round12.6% 14.0% 7.5%
Sweet Sixteen4.0% 4.6% 1.9%
Elite Eight1.5% 1.6% 0.8%
Final Four0.4% 0.5% 0.2%
Championship Game0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Colorado St. (Home) - 79.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b1 - 22 - 3
Quad 26 - 48 - 7
Quad 39 - 316 - 10
Quad 47 - 023 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 127   Sam Houston St. W 91-75 84%     1 - 0 +15.2 +17.5 -2.0
  Nov 09, 2024 82   Washington W 63-53 73%     2 - 0 +13.8 -2.4 +16.9
  Nov 13, 2024 208   Weber St. W 88-58 92%     3 - 0 +24.8 +19.2 +8.3
  Nov 16, 2024 72   Santa Clara W 85-59 70%     4 - 0 +30.6 +19.6 +12.8
  Nov 21, 2024 50   Vanderbilt L 71-73 49%     4 - 1 +8.3 +3.4 +4.8
  Nov 22, 2024 57   Virginia Commonwealth W 64-61 52%     5 - 1 +12.5 +8.4 +4.6
  Nov 24, 2024 97   Oklahoma St. W 90-78 67%     6 - 1 +17.6 +21.5 -3.8
  Dec 02, 2024 77   Washington St. L 57-68 72%     6 - 2 -6.9 -11.8 +4.6
  Dec 07, 2024 165   @ Loyola Marymount L 64-68 76%     6 - 3 -1.5 +2.1 -4.1
  Dec 11, 2024 123   South Dakota St. W 77-63 84%     7 - 3 +13.5 +16.7 -0.8
  Dec 14, 2024 306   Texas Southern W 105-73 96%     8 - 3 +21.1 +24.2 -4.2
  Dec 21, 2024 104   Colorado St. W 73-64 79%    
  Dec 28, 2024 161   @ Wyoming W 71-64 75%    
  Dec 31, 2024 54   Utah St. W 73-70 61%    
  Jan 03, 2025 70   @ New Mexico L 76-77 46%    
  Jan 11, 2025 257   @ Fresno St. W 77-65 87%    
  Jan 14, 2025 271   Air Force W 74-55 96%    
  Jan 18, 2025 189   San Jose St. W 76-62 90%    
  Jan 22, 2025 54   @ Utah St. L 70-73 40%    
  Jan 25, 2025 41   San Diego St. W 68-66 58%    
  Jan 29, 2025 58   @ Boise St. L 68-70 42%    
  Feb 01, 2025 108   UNLV W 72-63 79%    
  Feb 04, 2025 271   @ Air Force W 71-58 88%    
  Feb 11, 2025 257   Fresno St. W 80-62 95%    
  Feb 14, 2025 189   @ San Jose St. W 73-65 77%    
  Feb 18, 2025 104   @ Colorado St. W 70-67 59%    
  Feb 22, 2025 58   Boise St. W 71-67 63%    
  Feb 25, 2025 161   Wyoming W 74-61 88%    
  Feb 28, 2025 108   @ UNLV W 69-66 61%    
  Mar 04, 2025 70   New Mexico W 79-74 67%    
  Mar 08, 2025 41   @ San Diego St. L 65-69 37%    
Projected Record 22 - 9 14 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.9 3.5 7.2 7.2 4.3 1.7 0.3 25.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 1.2 5.4 8.2 4.8 1.3 0.1 21.0 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.4 5.5 7.5 2.9 0.3 0.0 17.8 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 1.5 4.8 5.8 2.1 0.1 14.4 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 1.3 3.8 4.1 1.3 0.1 10.8 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 1.0 2.2 2.3 0.7 0.0 6.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.2 0.9 0.2 0.0 3.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.1 1.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 11th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 1.1 2.6 4.6 7.9 11.0 14.0 15.9 14.8 12.4 8.5 4.4 1.7 0.3 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.3    0.3
19-1 100.0% 1.7    1.7 0.0
18-2 97.9% 4.3    3.9 0.3
17-3 85.1% 7.2    5.4 1.7 0.1
16-4 58.2% 7.2    3.7 2.9 0.5 0.0
15-5 23.7% 3.5    1.0 1.6 0.8 0.1 0.0
14-6 5.7% 0.9    0.1 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0
13-7 0.4% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 25.2% 25.2 16.2 6.9 1.8 0.3 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.3% 99.4% 49.4% 50.0% 4.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 98.8%
19-1 1.7% 95.8% 49.8% 46.0% 5.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 91.6%
18-2 4.4% 86.2% 40.5% 45.8% 8.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.6 76.9%
17-3 8.5% 71.1% 33.8% 37.3% 9.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.4 1.8 1.4 0.0 2.4 56.3%
16-4 12.4% 51.0% 29.2% 21.8% 10.2 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.9 2.0 2.9 0.2 6.1 30.7%
15-5 14.8% 34.5% 23.7% 10.8% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.2 3.2 0.3 9.7 14.2%
14-6 15.9% 21.2% 16.5% 4.7% 10.9 0.0 0.1 0.5 2.4 0.4 12.5 5.7%
13-7 14.0% 15.6% 13.8% 1.8% 11.1 0.0 0.2 1.5 0.5 0.0 11.8 2.1%
12-8 11.0% 11.3% 10.7% 0.6% 11.3 0.0 0.8 0.4 0.0 9.8 0.6%
11-9 7.9% 8.3% 8.1% 0.2% 11.6 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.0 7.2 0.2%
10-10 4.6% 6.6% 6.6% 11.7 0.1 0.2 0.0 4.3
9-11 2.6% 3.4% 3.4% 11.8 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 2.5
8-12 1.1% 3.2% 3.2% 12.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.1
7-13 0.4% 1.8% 1.8% 13.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4
6-14 0.2% 0.2
5-15 0.1% 0.1
4-16 0.0% 0.0
3-17 0.0% 0.0
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 31.1% 19.6% 11.5% 9.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.7 0.9 1.3 2.2 3.5 6.4 12.7 2.6 0.1 0.0 68.9 14.3%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 2.8 10.0 37.5 21.3 26.3 3.8 1.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1% 100.0% 4.7 2.8 2.8 19.4 13.9 33.3 16.7 8.3 2.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1% 100.0% 5.0 6.3 12.5 21.9 15.6 28.1 12.5 3.1