Nevada
Mountain West
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+7.2#80
Expected Predictive Rating+5.3#90
Pace61.5#345
Improvement-6.2#355

Offense
Total Offense+3.9#81
First Shot+4.7#63
After Offensive Rebound-0.8#239
Layup/Dunks-0.1#188
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.2#35
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.5#161
Freethrows+1.1#110
Improvement-3.6#327

Defense
Total Defense+3.3#86
First Shot+1.7#122
After Offensive Rebounds+1.6#63
Layups/Dunks+3.5#58
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.3#226
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.1#241
Freethrows-0.5#224
Improvement-2.7#312
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 5.2% 6.5% 4.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.5% 0.9% 0.1%
Average Seed 11.4 11.3 11.6
.500 or above 97.8% 100.0% 95.8%
.500 or above in Conference 47.8% 70.4% 27.3%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.4% 0.8% 0.1%
First Round5.0% 6.2% 3.9%
Second Round1.2% 1.4% 0.9%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.4% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Boise St. (Home) - 47.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b1 - 51 - 6
Quad 23 - 54 - 11
Quad 36 - 310 - 14
Quad 49 - 019 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 160   Sam Houston St. W 91-75 82%     1 - 0 +13.6 +17.8 -3.9
  Nov 09, 2024 90   Washington W 63-53 65%     2 - 0 +13.2 -3.6 +17.5
  Nov 13, 2024 297   Weber St. W 88-58 94%     3 - 0 +19.9 +17.0 +5.6
  Nov 16, 2024 60   Santa Clara W 85-59 50%     4 - 0 +33.2 +20.8 +14.2
  Nov 21, 2024 53   Vanderbilt L 71-73 37%     4 - 1 +8.6 +3.7 +4.9
  Nov 22, 2024 34   Virginia Commonwealth W 64-61 28%     5 - 1 +16.1 +8.4 +8.3
  Nov 24, 2024 92   Oklahoma St. W 90-78 56%     6 - 1 +17.6 +21.9 -4.2
  Dec 02, 2024 107   Washington St. L 57-68 72%     6 - 2 -10.0 -14.9 +4.6
  Dec 07, 2024 169   @ Loyola Marymount L 64-68 69%     6 - 3 -1.8 +3.0 -5.3
  Dec 11, 2024 111   South Dakota St. W 77-63 73%     7 - 3 +14.7 +16.2 +0.9
  Dec 14, 2024 296   Texas Southern W 105-73 94%     8 - 3 +21.9 +27.7 -6.9
  Dec 21, 2024 67   Colorado St. L 64-66 56%     8 - 4 0 - 1 +3.8 -0.8 +4.4
  Dec 28, 2024 166   @ Wyoming L 63-66 68%     8 - 5 0 - 2 -0.7 +0.0 -1.1
  Dec 31, 2024 45   Utah St. L 64-69 44%     8 - 6 0 - 3 +3.8 -1.7 +5.0
  Jan 03, 2025 38   @ New Mexico L 81-82 OT 23%     8 - 7 0 - 4 +13.9 +9.6 +4.4
  Jan 11, 2025 254   @ Fresno St. W 77-66 OT 82%     9 - 7 1 - 4 +8.3 -0.1 +7.8
  Jan 14, 2025 294   Air Force W 68-62 93%     10 - 7 2 - 4 -3.9 -2.2 -1.1
  Jan 18, 2025 163   San Jose St. W 75-64 82%     11 - 7 3 - 4 +8.3 +12.4 -2.2
  Jan 22, 2025 45   @ Utah St. L 69-90 26%     11 - 8 3 - 5 -7.1 +5.0 -13.8
  Jan 25, 2025 51   San Diego St. L 50-69 46%     11 - 9 3 - 6 -10.8 -1.6 -14.1
  Jan 29, 2025 49   @ Boise St. L 56-66 27%     11 - 10 3 - 7 +3.5 -4.8 +7.3
  Feb 01, 2025 98   UNLV W 71-65 68%     12 - 10 4 - 7 +8.4 +2.7 +5.8
  Feb 04, 2025 294   @ Air Force W 74-60 87%     13 - 10 5 - 7 +9.2 +9.3 +1.8
  Feb 10, 2025 254   Fresno St. W 94-69 91%     14 - 10 6 - 7 +17.2 +18.7 -1.5
  Feb 14, 2025 163   @ San Jose St. W 73-58 68%     15 - 10 7 - 7 +17.4 +10.4 +9.1
  Feb 18, 2025 67   @ Colorado St. L 71-79 36%     15 - 11 7 - 8 +2.9 +7.4 -5.1
  Feb 22, 2025 49   Boise St. L 68-69 48%    
  Feb 25, 2025 166   Wyoming W 70-60 84%    
  Feb 28, 2025 98   @ UNLV L 65-66 46%    
  Mar 04, 2025 38   New Mexico L 71-74 41%    
  Mar 08, 2025 51   @ San Diego St. L 61-67 27%    
Projected Record 17 - 14 9 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 0.2 0.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.6 0.9 1.6 5th
6th 0.2 8.2 21.3 13.2 1.3 44.0 6th
7th 1.0 15.3 25.1 9.7 0.7 51.8 7th
8th 1.4 0.9 2.3 8th
9th 0.2 0.2 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 2.6 16.4 33.2 31.0 14.5 2.4 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8 2.4% 13.1% 6.8% 6.3% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 2.1 6.8%
11-9 14.5% 9.7% 8.4% 1.3% 11.2 0.1 1.1 0.3 13.1 1.4%
10-10 31.0% 5.9% 5.6% 0.3% 11.3 1.2 0.6 29.2 0.3%
9-11 33.2% 3.9% 3.8% 0.0% 11.7 0.4 0.9 0.0 31.9 0.0%
8-12 16.4% 2.2% 2.2% 12.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 16.0
7-13 2.6% 1.6% 1.6% 12.8 0.0 0.0 2.5
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 5.2% 4.8% 0.5% 11.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 3.0 2.0 0.1 0.0 94.8 0.5%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.3% 11.5% 11.0 11.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.5% 15.7% 11.0 2.0 11.8 2.0
Lose Out 0.8%