Boise St.
Mountain West
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+11.0#43
Expected Predictive Rating+10.0#53
Pace66.0#277
Improvement-0.3#205

Offense
Total Offense+6.1#38
First Shot+2.1#113
After Offensive Rebound+4.1#24
Layup/Dunks+5.1#40
2 Pt Jumpshots-4.1#354
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.1#272
Freethrows+4.1#25
Improvement-0.5#265

Defense
Total Defense+4.9#52
First Shot+5.4#43
After Offensive Rebounds-0.5#215
Layups/Dunks+4.4#55
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.4#333
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.5#34
Freethrows-1.1#242
Improvement+0.2#147
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
#1 Seed 0.6% 0.6% 0.1%
Top 2 Seed 1.6% 1.7% 0.2%
Top 4 Seed 5.4% 5.5% 0.7%
Top 6 Seed 10.7% 11.0% 2.6%
NCAA Tourney Bid 43.2% 43.9% 22.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 27.3% 27.9% 10.5%
Average Seed 8.4 8.4 9.6
.500 or above 97.9% 98.1% 89.8%
.500 or above in Conference 95.3% 95.5% 88.3%
Conference Champion 29.1% 29.6% 14.3%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four6.1% 6.2% 3.5%
First Round40.4% 41.1% 20.6%
Second Round22.9% 23.3% 9.0%
Sweet Sixteen9.1% 9.3% 3.7%
Elite Eight3.9% 4.0% 1.6%
Final Four1.6% 1.6% 0.2%
Championship Game0.6% 0.7% 0.0%
National Champion0.2% 0.3% 0.0%

Next Game: Hampton (Neutral) - 96.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b2 - 22 - 4
Quad 25 - 37 - 7
Quad 36 - 113 - 8
Quad 49 - 022 - 8


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2024 176   Oakland W 87-43 91%     1 - 0 +40.1 +18.9 +24.3
  Nov 09, 2024 59   @ San Francisco L 73-84 46%     1 - 1 +1.0 +7.9 -7.2
  Nov 17, 2024 49   Clemson W 84-71 67%     2 - 1 +19.5 +12.6 +6.8
  Nov 24, 2024 310   Hampton W 77-58 97%    
  Dec 03, 2024 304   Utah Tech W 84-62 98%    
  Dec 07, 2024 80   Washington St. W 75-71 63%    
  Dec 15, 2024 44   St. Mary's W 69-68 50%    
  Dec 17, 2024 266   Texas Southern W 79-60 96%    
  Dec 21, 2024 292   Air Force W 76-55 97%    
  Dec 28, 2024 251   @ San Jose St. W 75-62 87%    
  Dec 31, 2024 185   @ Wyoming W 75-66 79%    
  Jan 04, 2025 62   San Diego St. W 69-64 68%    
  Jan 07, 2025 97   UNLV W 75-66 78%    
  Jan 11, 2025 45   @ Utah St. L 75-77 43%    
  Jan 14, 2025 185   Wyoming W 78-63 91%    
  Jan 17, 2025 63   @ New Mexico L 76-77 48%    
  Jan 22, 2025 102   @ Colorado St. W 70-67 61%    
  Jan 29, 2025 39   Nevada W 70-67 59%    
  Feb 01, 2025 253   Fresno St. W 83-64 95%    
  Feb 04, 2025 97   @ UNLV W 72-69 59%    
  Feb 07, 2025 251   San Jose St. W 78-59 95%    
  Feb 15, 2025 62   @ San Diego St. L 66-67 48%    
  Feb 19, 2025 63   New Mexico W 79-74 68%    
  Feb 22, 2025 39   @ Nevada L 67-70 39%    
  Feb 26, 2025 45   Utah St. W 78-74 63%    
  Mar 01, 2025 253   @ Fresno St. W 80-67 86%    
  Mar 04, 2025 292   @ Air Force W 73-58 90%    
  Mar 07, 2025 102   Colorado St. W 73-64 79%    
Projected Record 20 - 8 14 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.4 2.4 6.5 8.3 7.0 3.5 0.9 29.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.8 3.9 7.6 6.2 2.3 0.4 21.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 1.0 4.0 6.7 3.8 0.7 0.0 16.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 1.0 3.7 5.4 2.4 0.3 0.0 12.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 1.1 3.1 3.7 1.4 0.1 9.5 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 1.0 2.0 2.2 0.8 0.1 6.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.1 0.9 0.3 0.0 3.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 1.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 11th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.3 2.4 4.3 6.6 9.3 11.6 13.5 14.0 13.5 10.6 7.4 3.5 0.9 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.9    0.9
19-1 100.0% 3.5    3.4 0.1
18-2 94.8% 7.0    6.2 0.8
17-3 78.6% 8.3    5.7 2.5 0.2 0.0
16-4 48.3% 6.5    2.9 2.9 0.7 0.1
15-5 16.9% 2.4    0.5 1.1 0.6 0.2 0.0
14-6 2.8% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
13-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0
12-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 29.1% 29.1 19.7 7.4 1.7 0.3 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.9% 100.0% 63.1% 36.9% 2.6 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
19-1 3.5% 98.3% 55.7% 42.6% 4.0 0.3 0.6 0.6 0.8 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 96.3%
18-2 7.4% 94.8% 45.2% 49.6% 6.1 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.0 1.2 1.1 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.4 90.5%
17-3 10.6% 85.4% 37.4% 48.0% 8.1 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.0 1.3 1.5 1.7 1.5 1.0 0.0 1.6 76.6%
16-4 13.5% 67.7% 30.2% 37.5% 9.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.2 1.8 2.4 2.4 0.2 4.4 53.7%
15-5 14.0% 45.9% 22.3% 23.6% 10.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.8 3.0 0.4 7.6 30.4%
14-6 13.5% 27.6% 15.3% 12.3% 10.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.8 2.3 0.4 0.0 9.8 14.6%
13-7 11.6% 15.7% 11.3% 4.5% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.2 0.4 0.0 9.8 5.0%
12-8 9.3% 9.8% 8.6% 1.1% 11.3 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.3 0.0 8.4 1.2%
11-9 6.6% 6.5% 6.1% 0.3% 11.6 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 6.2 0.4%
10-10 4.3% 4.3% 4.2% 0.1% 11.8 0.1 0.1 0.0 4.1 0.1%
9-11 2.4% 2.7% 2.7% 12.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.3
8-12 1.3% 1.0% 1.0% 12.8 0.0 0.0 1.3
7-13 0.6% 0.8% 0.8% 13.0 0.0 0.6
6-14 0.3% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.0 0.3
5-15 0.1% 0.1
4-16 0.0% 0.0
3-17 0.0% 0.0
2-18 0.0% 0.0
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 43.2% 21.9% 21.3% 8.4 0.6 1.0 1.5 2.3 2.5 2.9 3.4 3.9 5.1 7.2 10.7 2.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 56.8 27.3%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.4% 100.0% 1.9 44.3 32.9 17.7 3.2 1.3 0.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1% 100.0% 2.6 12.1 36.4 30.3 18.2 3.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1% 100.0% 3.0 18.8 18.8 28.1 21.9 6.3 6.3