Boise St.
Mountain West
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+10.9#49
Expected Predictive Rating+9.3#61
Pace66.0#236
Improvement+0.9#146

Offense
Total Offense+6.1#46
First Shot+4.1#72
After Offensive Rebound+2.0#68
Layup/Dunks+6.6#12
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.4#347
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.4#290
Freethrows+4.3#10
Improvement-0.6#213

Defense
Total Defense+4.8#62
First Shot+2.5#91
After Offensive Rebounds+2.3#27
Layups/Dunks-0.3#178
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.1#193
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.1#144
Freethrows+1.6#77
Improvement+1.5#105
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.4% 0.7% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 37.3% 45.0% 28.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 25.6% 33.5% 17.2%
Average Seed 10.3 10.1 10.7
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 0.4% 0.7% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four13.4% 14.9% 11.7%
First Round30.3% 37.4% 22.6%
Second Round10.5% 13.5% 7.2%
Sweet Sixteen2.4% 3.1% 1.7%
Elite Eight0.7% 1.0% 0.4%
Final Four0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Championship Game0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Nevada (Away) - 52.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 11 - 1
Quad 1b1 - 52 - 5
Quad 25 - 38 - 8
Quad 35 - 113 - 9
Quad 49 - 122 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2024 198   Oakland W 87-43 92%     1 - 0 +39.4 +16.9 +25.5
  Nov 09, 2024 69   @ San Francisco L 73-84 51%     1 - 1 -0.3 +8.2 -8.8
  Nov 17, 2024 23   Clemson W 84-71 42%     2 - 1 +26.0 +16.2 +9.7
  Nov 24, 2024 250   Hampton W 83-69 92%     3 - 1 +9.1 +9.8 -0.5
  Nov 25, 2024 111   South Dakota St. W 83-82 77%     4 - 1 +4.3 +10.8 -6.5
  Nov 26, 2024 174   Boston College L 61-63 86%     4 - 2 -2.6 -10.8 +8.2
  Dec 03, 2024 290   Utah Tech W 87-64 96%     5 - 2 +13.4 +15.8 -0.3
  Dec 07, 2024 107   Washington St. L 69-74 76%     5 - 3 -1.4 -5.5 +4.3
  Dec 14, 2024 30   St. Mary's W 67-65 OT 36%     6 - 3 +16.7 +7.9 +8.9
  Dec 17, 2024 296   Texas Southern W 82-51 96%     7 - 3 +20.9 +3.8 +15.5
  Dec 21, 2024 294   Air Force W 77-59 96%     8 - 3 1 - 0 +8.1 +6.3 +3.3
  Dec 28, 2024 163   @ San Jose St. W 73-71 79%     9 - 3 2 - 0 +4.4 +12.8 -8.1
  Dec 31, 2024 166   @ Wyoming W 67-58 79%     10 - 3 3 - 0 +11.3 +6.1 +6.4
  Jan 04, 2025 51   San Diego St. L 68-76 61%     10 - 4 3 - 1 +0.2 +4.8 -4.8
  Jan 07, 2025 98   UNLV W 81-59 79%     11 - 4 4 - 1 +24.4 +16.6 +9.4
  Jan 11, 2025 45   @ Utah St. L 79-81 39%     11 - 5 4 - 2 +11.9 +25.3 -13.9
  Jan 14, 2025 166   Wyoming W 96-55 90%     12 - 5 5 - 2 +38.2 +27.0 +12.6
  Jan 17, 2025 38   @ New Mexico L 65-84 35%     12 - 6 5 - 3 -4.1 -1.3 -2.0
  Jan 22, 2025 67   @ Colorado St. L 72-75 50%     12 - 7 5 - 4 +7.9 +12.0 -4.4
  Jan 29, 2025 80   Nevada W 66-56 73%     13 - 7 6 - 4 +14.7 +2.1 +13.6
  Feb 01, 2025 254   Fresno St. W 82-60 95%     14 - 7 7 - 4 +14.2 +9.4 +5.5
  Feb 04, 2025 98   @ UNLV W 71-62 63%     15 - 7 8 - 4 +16.4 +5.2 +11.4
  Feb 07, 2025 163   San Jose St. W 79-52 89%     16 - 7 9 - 4 +24.3 +12.6 +14.8
  Feb 15, 2025 51   @ San Diego St. L 47-64 41%     16 - 8 9 - 5 -3.8 -8.7 +2.7
  Feb 19, 2025 38   New Mexico W 86-78 54%     17 - 8 10 - 5 +17.9 +15.3 +2.2
  Feb 22, 2025 80   @ Nevada W 69-68 52%    
  Feb 26, 2025 45   Utah St. W 78-76 60%    
  Mar 01, 2025 254   @ Fresno St. W 82-68 89%    
  Mar 04, 2025 294   @ Air Force W 76-60 92%    
  Mar 07, 2025 67   Colorado St. W 74-69 70%    
Projected Record 21 - 9 14 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.4 0.4 1st
2nd 0.0 1.1 12.3 13.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 2.5 19.0 7.4 28.9 3rd
4th 1.2 11.9 15.6 28.6 4th
5th 0.0 1.4 8.9 16.0 2.0 28.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.4 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 0.1 1.6 10.2 30.4 37.7 20.0 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 1.9% 0.4    0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
14-6 0.0%
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.4% 0.4 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 20.0% 59.4% 23.0% 36.4% 9.6 0.0 0.3 0.6 1.3 2.4 3.7 3.4 0.0 8.1 47.2%
14-6 37.7% 41.3% 15.5% 25.8% 10.5 0.1 1.3 5.2 8.6 0.4 22.1 30.5%
13-7 30.4% 26.1% 13.1% 13.1% 10.7 0.0 0.3 1.9 5.2 0.5 22.5 15.0%
12-8 10.2% 17.2% 11.8% 5.5% 10.9 0.0 0.3 1.3 0.2 8.5 6.2%
11-9 1.6% 10.1% 8.8% 1.3% 10.9 0.0 0.1 1.4 1.4%
10-10 0.1% 0.1
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 37.3% 15.8% 21.6% 10.3 0.0 0.3 0.6 1.4 4.0 11.1 18.6 1.1 62.7 25.6%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 4.6% 100.0% 8.5 0.4 7.2 13.7 25.7 33.0 17.8 2.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 4.0% 60.1% 10.1 2.0 10.5 29.4 18.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 6.2% 44.9% 10.4 0.2 5.5 15.2 23.5 0.5