Boise St.
Mountain West
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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All team stats adjusted for opponents. See methodology page for details.

Predictive Rating +9.4 60
Results Rating +10.0 59
Consistency 0.18 305
Pace 64.9 275
Improvement -1.3 230

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense B 59 B B- B- A- B-
Defense B- 79 C+ A- D+ B B+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% 111 C+ 60% 113 +2.3 95
2 Pt. Jumpers 28% 283 C- 37% 211 -2.1 284
Three Pointers 43% 130 B+ 38% 30 +3.8 57
Shot Selection/Accuracy B- +0.8 80 B- +3.1 82
1st FG Attempt B 1.10 68
Second Chance B 34.7% 57 C+ 1.06 132 B- 0.37 69
Opponents' Steals B+ 7.4% 24
Other Turnovers D+ 8.2% 297
Turnovers B- 15.6% 106
Freethrows B 0.35 44 A- 79% 9 A- 0.28 15
Total Offense B +5.9 59

Assists Opponents' Blocks
Close Shots C- 46% 233 B 8.7% 56
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots D- 13% 339 F+ 9.0% 345
Three Pointers C- 82% 225 B- 0.5% 89
Total C 55% 195 C+ 5.2% 135


Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 34% 304 C 57% 155 -3.0 80
2 Pt. Jumpers 27% 30 D 41% 297 +3.3 357
Three Pointers 39% 241 C+ 33% 125 -1.7 116
Shot Selection/Accuracy B+ -1.1 31 C -0.1 174
1st FG Attempt C+ 1.00 133
Second Chance A+ 20.9% 3 D+ 1.09 271 A- 0.23 16
Turnovers from Steals D 7.6% 317
Other Turnovers B- 7.9% 101
Turnovers D+ 15.4% 261
Freethrows B 0.26 51 B 70% 55 B 0.18 43
Total Defense B- +3.6 79

Assists Blocks
Close Shots A 34% 3 D+ 8.5% 274
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots B 17% 32 D 2.4% 316
Three Pointers B- 80% 76 B- 1.3% 80
Total A 43% 8 D 4.0% 306

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 17.7 219 18.4 317
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.14 246 0.15 98
Consistency 0.14 294 0.14 310
Improvement +3.8 33 -5.1 354

NCAA Tournament Selection
At-Large Selection Status Longshot
Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Prediction Ranges
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 70 62 52
Results Rating Rank 72 62 50
Conference Record 11 - 9 12 - 8 12 - 8
Conference Finish 7 5 4
NCAA Tourney Seed None None 11
NCAA Tourney Finish None None 1st Round

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 18% 25% 12%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 12% 17% 6%
Average Seed 10.8 10.7 10.9
.500 or above 100% 100% 100%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four10% 13% 5%
First Round13% 17% 8%
Second Round3% 5% 2%
Sweet Sixteen1% 1% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%
Next Game: Colorado St. (Away) - 50.8% chance of victory

Projected Record by Quadrant
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 11 - 1
Quad 1b1 - 43 - 5
Quad 26 - 59 - 10
Quad 38 - 216 - 11
Quad 43 - 020 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Sat, Nov 8 96 Utah Valley W 101 - 77 75% +12  97% 1 - 0 A+ +27 A+ +22 A+ A+ A+ B- +3 B C+ B-
 Tue, Nov 11 144 UT Rio Grande Valley W 85 - 65 86% +9  84% 2 - 0 A +18 C+ +3 B- A+ F A+ +14 C A+ A-
 Sat, Nov 15 147 Montana St. W 62 - 58 86% +2  68% 3 - 0 C+ +2 D- -8 F+ F B+ A +10 B A+ D+
 Tue, Nov 18 91 Wichita St. W 62 - 59 73% +4  73% 4 - 0 B- +6 D -5 F+ B C+ A+ +11 A B B
 Mon, Nov 24 63 USC L 67 - 70 51% -2  19% 4 - 1 B- +6 C- -2 C- B- F+ A- +8 C A+ B-
 Tue, Nov 25 34 North Carolina St. L 70 - 81 33% -5  13% 4 - 2 C+ +3 C- -1 B- F+ D+ B +4 D- A+ B
 Sat, Dec 6 79 @Butler W 77 - 68 46% +2  64% 5 - 2 A +20 B+ +8 D B A+ A+ +12 A B- D
 Wed, Dec 10 120 Duquesne W 86 - 64 82% +12  98% 6 - 2 A +22 A- +10 B A- A+ A+ +12 A+ B D+
 Sun, Dec 14 31 St. Mary's W 68 - 67 31% +6  94% 7 - 2 A- +16 C+ +2 A C F A+ +13 A+ A+ D+
 Sat, Dec 20 81 @Nevada L 66 - 81 47% -10  2% 7 - 3 0 - 1 C- -5 C+ +3 A- D F+ F+ -10 F A D
 Tue, Dec 30 50 New Mexico W 62 - 53 55% -0  42% 8 - 3 1 - 1 A- +17 F+ -9 D+ F A+ A+ +26 A+ A+ D-
 Sat, Jan 3 48 @San Diego St. L 107 - 110 3OT 31% -6  20% 8 - 4 1 - 2 B+ +11 A +12 A- D A- C +0 D+ C D+
 Wed, Jan 7 62 Grand Canyon L 58 - 75 62% -7  14% 8 - 5 1 - 3 D -11 F+ -9 D- F+ D- C- -2 F+ A+ C+
 Sat, Jan 10 41 Utah St. L 68 - 93 48% -19  0% 8 - 6 1 - 4 F+ -15 C +0 D- A B+ F -17 C- F D
 Tue, Jan 13 102 @UNLV L 85 - 89 OT 58% -0  39% 8 - 7 1 - 5 C+ +3 C +0 B+ F C- B +4 C+ C+ C
 Fri, Jan 16 92 Colorado St. W 79 - 73 73% +6  95% 9 - 7 2 - 5 B +9 A +12 B+ A+ D C- -2 F+ A+ A+
 Tue, Jan 20 101 @Wyoming W 81 - 65 57% +10  72% 10 - 7 3 - 5 A+ +24 A+ +15 A+ D- A A +10 B- B+ C+
 Sat, Jan 24 344 Air Force W 96 - 54 98% +19  93% 11 - 7 4 - 5 A+ +26 A+ +27 A A+ A+ B +5 C B+ D+
 Tue, Jan 27 224 @San Jose St. W 89 - 58 83% +9  85% 12 - 7 5 - 5 A+ +30 A+ +15 A A+ B A+ +17 A B+ B+
 Fri, Jan 30 62 @Grand Canyon L 69 - 86 39% -6  14% 12 - 8 5 - 6 C- -5 B +7 C A- C+ F -13 F A F+
 Tue, Feb 3 81 Nevada W 91 - 87 OT 69% +8  91% 13 - 8 6 - 6 B +8 A +12 A- A+ B+ D+ -4 D+ C- D-
 Sat, Feb 7 50 @New Mexico W 91 - 90 33% +1  54% 14 - 8 7 - 6 A- +15 A+ +27 A+ B- B+ F -11 F A F
 Fri, Feb 13 102 UNLV L 83 - 86 OT 78% +9  90% 14 - 9 7 - 7 C- -2 B +6 A D- C+ F+ -8 C F F
 Wed, Feb 18 41 @Utah St. L 56 - 75 27% -9  18% 14 - 10 7 - 8 C- -3 D -4 C- F C+ C- -2 D+ C+ D-
 Sat, Feb 21 224 San Jose St. W 84 - 69 93% +9  95% 15 - 10 8 - 8 B +8 B+ +8 A D+ A C+ +1 A- D- F
 Tue, Feb 24 101 Wyoming W 72 - 62 77% +2  58% 16 - 10 9 - 8 B+ +12 B- +4 D+ A+ D A +9 B+ A- D
 Sat, Feb 28 129 @Fresno St. W 69 - 53 67% +7  90% 17 - 10 10 - 8 A +21 A- +9 B C- A- A+ +14 A A+ F+
 Tue, Mar 3 48 San Diego St. W 86 - 77 54% +11  98% 18 - 10 11 - 8 A- +17 A+ +20 A+ A+ F+ C- -2 C- A+ F
 Sat, Mar 7 92 @Colorado St. W 72 - 71 51%
Totals 19 - 10 12 - 8 +9 B +6 A+ B- B- B- +4 B+ A- A-



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings B C+ C- B+ B- 41% 28% 43% B- B B C+ B- B- B A- A- B- C D C+ C 34% 27% 39% B+ C+ A+ D+ A- D+ B B B
1.17 60% 37% 38% +3 +1 1.10 35% 1.1 .37 16% .35 79% .28 1.04 57% 41% 33% 0 -1 1.00 21% 1.1 .23 15% .26 70% .25
Nov
8		 Utah Valley A+ A+ F A- A+ 51% 14% 35% A- A+ B+ A+ A+ A+ A+ A- A+ B- F+ F A+ B- 45% 22% 33% A- B A+ F C+ B- F F F
1.35 73% 29% 39% +9 +2 1.24 37% 1.4 .50 12% .52 79% .41 1.03 70% 45% 18% -1 0 1.00 22% 1.7 .37 21% .41 79% .32
Nov
11		 UT Rio Grande Valley C+ F+ F A+ C+ 42% 19% 40% B- B- A+ A+ A+ F A+ D- A+ A+ F+ C- C- D+ 33% 39% 29% A+ C A+ F A+ A- F A+ C
1.12 50% 25% 47% +2 +1 1.07 48% 1.5 .74 26% .52 66% .34 0.86 69% 37% 36% +4 -3 1.04 12% 1.3 .15 21% .37 45% .17
Nov
15		 Montana St. D- D F D F+ 27% 16% 58% D+ F+ F D F B+ A+ A+ A+ A B- B- D C+ 25% 36% 40% A B B A+ A+ D+ B+ A+ A
0.98 50% 14% 31% -9 0 0.84 21% 1.0 .21 13% .40 91% .36 0.92 54% 37% 38% +1 -3 0.98 24% 0.3 .08 14% .20 55% .11
Nov
18		 Wichita St. D F F A F 44% 22% 33% A- F+ C+ B+ B C+ A+ D A+ A+ A+ F+ A- A 40% 29% 31% B A B- B B B D C D+
0.97 40% 10% 40% -11 0 0.80 30% 1.1 .32 16% .43 65% .28 0.92 33% 46% 29% -10 -1 0.80 36% 0.9 .33 17% .36 68% .25
Nov
24		 USC C- D A+ F D 50% 10% 40% A C- B C+ B- F+ F A+ D A- A+ D+ F C- 30% 28% 42% A- C A+ A A+ B- A+ A A+
0.96 50% 60% 24% -8 +2 0.90 33% 0.9 .31 22% .20 91% .18 1.01 40% 43% 48% +4 -2 1.08 23% 0.9 .19 19% .30 65% .19
Nov
25		 North Carolina St. C- F A+ B B 24% 9% 67% C B- B+ F F+ D+ A+ D A+ B C- F F F+ 39% 20% 41% B D- A A+ A+ B F+ D+ F+
1.00 45% 50% 37% +1 +1 1.04 33% 0.5 .16 21% .58 66% .38 1.16 63% 50% 45% +11 0 1.24 23% 0.6 .13 14% .38 78% .30
Dec
6		 Butler B+ C- F F F+ 54% 23% 23% B D A+ F B A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ B- C A+ A+ 52% 19% 29% C A A+ F B- D A A+ A+
1.15 57% 25% 25% -7 +1 0.90 42% 0.8 .32 12% .44 81% .35 1.01 56% 40% 20% -7 +1 0.90 24% 1.6 .37 12% .29 59% .17
Dec
10		 Duquesne A- F F A+ A- 35% 31% 35% D B D+ A+ A- A+ D+ A+ B+ A+ D- A+ A+ A+ 38% 16% 45% B+ A+ A+ F B D+ B A+ A
1.22 44% 25% 61% +5 -2 1.10 26% 1.5 .39 11% .32 90% .29 0.91 67% 22% 20% -9 +1 0.85 17% 1.5 .25 16% .30 61% .18
Dec
14		 St. Mary's C+ B- A+ C+ A+ 36% 26% 38% C- A D A+ C F B- A+ B+ A+ A B- A+ A+ 40% 26% 34% B A+ A+ A A+ D+ F D+ F
0.99 59% 50% 33% +3 -1 1.06 18% 1.2 .21 22% .26 86% .22 0.98 47% 33% 25% -10 0 0.81 28% 0.9 .25 15% .41 83% .34
Dec
20		 Nevada C+ B+ C+ B- B+ 45% 13% 43% B+ A- A F D F+ A+ F A+ F+ D- F F F 40% 40% 20% A F A+ F+ A D F D F
1.06 61% 40% 35% +2 +2 1.10 38% 0.6 .24 21% .63 61% .38 1.30 63% 50% 50% +11 -2 1.20 21% 1.2 .25 11% .61 79% .49
Dec
30		 New Mexico F+ B F F D- 33% 15% 52% B D+ D F F A+ A+ F A A+ A+ C- A+ A+ 32% 26% 42% A+ A+ A+ B A+ D- B+ A+ A
0.88 63% 29% 24% -8 0 0.88 22% 0.6 .14 13% .41 64% .26 0.75 44% 40% 13% -17 -1 0.65 18% 0.9 .16 11% .26 63% .16
Jan
3		 San Diego St. A A C+ C A- 30% 15% 55% B- A- C+ F D A- A A+ A+ C B+ F F D+ 44% 24% 32% D- D+ A+ F C D+ F+ A+ C-
1.12 67% 36% 33% +2 0 1.06 30% 0.7 .21 18% .39 87% .34 1.15 55% 50% 43% +6 0 1.14 20% 1.8 .35 15% .39 66% .26
Jan
7		 Grand Canyon F+ C F+ F D 30% 30% 40% D+ D- D F F+ D- A+ A A+ C- C- F B- D- 52% 13% 35% F F+ C A+ A+ C+ A+ C+ A+
0.86 54% 31% 24% -10 -2 0.79 20% 0.7 .14 21% .46 80% .37 1.11 61% 71% 32% +4 +2 1.15 32% 0.6 .19 18% .22 75% .16
Jan
10		 Utah St. C F A+ F+ F+ 37% 14% 49% B+ D- A B+ A B+ A+ B A+ F D+ D D C- 43% 11% 46% C C- F+ F F D D- D- F+
1.04 38% 50% 29% -10 +1 0.84 40% 1.1 .46 18% .47 76% .36 1.42 65% 40% 38% +6 +2 1.17 41% 2.2 .90 12% .37 76% .28
Jan
13		 UNLV C B+ A+ F B 56% 22% 22% B B+ D- F F C- A- B A B D C- D+ C- 31% 33% 35% A+ C+ D B+ C+ C F+ D+ F+
1.06 65% 50% 25% +3 +1 1.11 24% 0.5 .12 19% .45 76% .34 1.11 65% 44% 37% +6 -2 1.09 36% 0.8 .28 16% .42 71% .30
Jan
16		 Colorado St. A F+ A+ B B+ 27% 11% 61% B B+ A- A A+ D A+ A A+ C- D A+ F F 27% 20% 52% A- F+ A- A+ A+ A+ B- F D+
1.27 50% 80% 37% +5 0 1.14 35% 1.4 .48 18% .53 78% .41 1.17 67% 0% 61% +16 -1 1.32 26% 0.3 .09 24% .30 93% .28
Jan
20		 Wyoming A+ B A+ A+ A+ 49% 8% 43% A- A+ C- F D- A F A+ D A B+ F A C+ 41% 18% 41% B B- A+ F+ B+ C+ C- D+ C-
1.25 64% 50% 41% +8 +2 1.24 25% 0.7 .18 12% .23 100% .23 1.00 50% 75% 28% 0 0 1.02 23% 1.1 .27 17% .33 78% .26
Jan
24		 Air Force A+ B- D- A+ A 43% 17% 40% B+ A A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ C+ A+ B A+ F D C- 34% 23% 43% A- C A+ F B+ D+ A A+ A
1.55 65% 33% 52% +13 +1 1.30 42% 1.5 .65 6% .43 72% .31 0.87 40% 50% 37% -2 -1 0.98 13% 1.3 .16 19% .22 55% .12
Jan
27		 San Jose St. A+ A- A+ F B+ 74% 2% 24% A+ A A A+ A+ B A+ D A+ A+ B+ A+ C+ A 24% 33% 43% B A A+ F B+ B+ D A+ B
1.33 71% 100% 27% +8 +5 1.28 45% 1.4 .64 15% .44 72% .32 0.87 50% 25% 33% -7 -3 0.84 22% 1.3 .27 18% .33 56% .18
Jan
30		 Grand Canyon B D+ F D+ D 49% 7% 44% A+ C B A A- C+ A+ B A+ F F+ B+ F F 48% 22% 30% C- F A+ F A F+ F+ F+ F
1.04 50% 0% 30% -9 +3 0.89 29% 1.3 .38 17% .45 76% .34 1.30 68% 30% 64% +17 +1 1.37 10% 2.5 .25 14% .40 83% .33
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
3		 Nevada A A+ C+ D B+ 42% 10% 48% B+ A- B A+ A+ B+ A+ A A+ D+ D- D C- D- 33% 33% 33% A- D+ A+ F C- D- A A A+
1.22 70% 40% 30% +3 +2 1.10 31% 1.8 .54 15% .55 77% .43 1.17 63% 42% 37% +4 -2 1.07 21% 1.9 .38 11% .29 68% .20
Feb
7		 New Mexico A+ C- A+ A+ A+ 19% 10% 71% B- A+ B C+ B- B+ A+ A+ A+ F C- F F F 48% 10% 42% D F D+ A+ A F D+ B- C-
1.35 56% 60% 44% +13 0 1.27 31% 1.0 .31 16% .48 96% .46 1.34 60% 60% 50% +13 +2 1.33 33% 0.5 .18 7% .34 71% .24
Feb
13		 UNLV B B F A+ A 44% 19% 38% B- A D+ F D- C+ B- A+ A+ F+ A- D F D+ 25% 34% 41% A+ C B- F F F A+ F A+
1.19 62% 22% 50% +8 +1 1.19 27% 0.9 .23 17% .40 91% .36 1.24 50% 47% 43% +7 -3 1.11 31% 1.5 .44 12% .21 77% .16
Feb
18		 Utah St. D F A- C D+ 39% 18% 43% B- C- A- F F C+ F B+ F C- D- C- F+ D 40% 17% 43% B+ D+ A+ F C+ D- A- B- A-
0.93 42% 44% 33% -5 0 0.92 38% 0.4 .15 20% .19 78% .15 1.25 68% 38% 40% +8 +1 1.19 24% 1.7 .40 12% .24 69% .17
Feb
21		 San Jose St. B+ B A+ A A 48% 8% 44% A- A F+ A D+ A C A+ B C+ D+ D- A+ A- 27% 36% 38% B+ A- B+ F D- F A+ F A+
1.28 67% 75% 41% +12 +2 1.30 26% 1.3 .35 12% .29 88% .26 1.05 60% 45% 19% -5 -3 0.86 27% 1.5 .41 9% .12 100% .12
Feb
24		 Wyoming B- A+ F F C- 34% 26% 40% F+ D+ A+ A+ A+ D C- A+ A A F A+ A B+ 33% 16% 51% B+ B+ A+ F+ A- D A+ D+ A+
1.13 81% 25% 21% -3 -1 0.94 38% 1.7 .65 19% .37 89% .33 0.97 69% 25% 28% -3 0 0.96 22% 1.1 .25 14% .16 78% .13
Feb
28		 Fresno St. A- B A- B A- 18% 22% 59% D- B A+ F C- A- F B F A+ F F+ A+ B 20% 45% 35% A+ A A+ A+ A+ F+ A+ A A+
1.15 67% 45% 34% +4 -2 1.06 43% 0.6 .28 15% .16 75% .12 0.88 70% 45% 18% -3 -4 0.88 21% 0.6 .12 13% .17 67% .12
Mar
3		 San Diego St. A+ D A+ A+ A+ 22% 19% 58% C- A+ A+ A+ A+ F+ A+ A- A+ C- F D+ D+ D 28% 42% 30% A+ C- A+ F A+ F C F D
1.26 50% 57% 48% +14 -1 1.28 48% 1.8 .84 25% .65 79% .51 1.13 73% 41% 38% +7 -3 1.09 7% 1.5 .11 10% .33 85% .28



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 8.5 8.5 4th
5th 0.5 42.3 42.7 5th
6th 30.9 30.9 6th
7th 15.8 15.8 7th
8th 2.0 2.0 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 49.2 50.8 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8 50.8% 24.8% 8.9% 15.9% 10.7 0.0 0.1 0.5 2.9 8.6 0.5 38.2 17.4%
11-9 49.2% 11.8% 5.7% 6.0% 10.9 0.1 0.9 4.4 0.4 43.4 6.4%
10-10
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 18.4% 7.4% 11.0% 10.8 81.6 11.9%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 4.5% 100.0% 10.3 0.3 1.8 10.2 39.5 47.7 0.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 5.6% 36.8% 10.7 0.1 0.9 10.5 24.5 0.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 10.0% 23.8% 10.9 0.1 3.4 19.5 0.7
Lose Out 15.6% 2.2% 11.2 0.1 1.7 0.4