Boise St.
Mountain West
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+10.3#52
Expected Predictive Rating+12.1#49
Pace65.7#281
Improvement-0.4#218

Offense
Total Offense+3.4#89
First Shot+1.9#128
After Offensive Rebound+1.5#89
Layup/Dunks-1.2#223
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.3#338
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.8#126
Freethrows+4.6#10
Improvement-1.0#263

Defense
Total Defense+6.9#22
First Shot+0.9#141
After Offensive Rebounds+6.0#1
Layups/Dunks-0.7#198
2 Pt Jumpshots-4.3#354
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.4#90
Freethrows+3.4#21
Improvement+0.6#137
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 1.1% 1.2% 0.3%
Top 6 Seed 4.1% 4.5% 1.2%
NCAA Tourney Bid 41.5% 43.7% 28.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 25.4% 27.4% 14.2%
Average Seed 9.3 9.3 9.9
.500 or above 96.0% 97.1% 88.9%
.500 or above in Conference 91.6% 92.5% 86.0%
Conference Champion 27.7% 29.1% 19.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four7.4% 7.8% 5.3%
First Round37.6% 39.6% 25.4%
Second Round17.0% 18.1% 10.0%
Sweet Sixteen4.3% 4.6% 2.1%
Elite Eight1.4% 1.6% 0.5%
Final Four0.4% 0.4% 0.1%
Championship Game0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Duquesne (Home) - 86.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b2 - 32 - 4
Quad 25 - 48 - 8
Quad 39 - 217 - 10
Quad 45 - 021 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Sat, Nov 8 83 Utah Valley W 101-77 74%     1 - 0 +27.6 +24.7 +1.3
  Tue, Nov 11 209 UT Rio Grande Valley W 85-65 93%     2 - 0 +13.8 +2.6 +9.7
  Sat, Nov 15 164 Montana St. W 62-58 90%     3 - 0 +0.4 -5.7 +6.5
  Tue, Nov 18 91 Wichita St. W 62-59 76%     4 - 0 +5.8 -3.7 +9.8
  Mon, Nov 24 35 USC L 67-70 40%     4 - 1 +9.8 -1.0 +10.8
  Tue, Nov 25 36 North Carolina St. L 70-81 40%     4 - 2 +1.8 +0.5 +1.3
  Sat, Dec 6 55 @Butler W 77-68 39%     5 - 2 +22.1 +12.6 +9.9
  Wed, Dec 10 133 Duquesne W 80-69 86%    
  Sun, Dec 14 41 St. Mary's L 66-68 44%    
  Sat, Dec 20 106 @Nevada W 70-67 61%    
  Tue, Dec 30 84 New Mexico W 77-70 74%    
  Sat, Jan 3 56 @San Diego St. L 69-72 41%    
  Wed, Jan 7 99 Grand Canyon W 72-64 77%    
  Sat, Jan 10 51 Utah St. W 72-69 60%    
  Tue, Jan 13 132 @UNLV W 79-74 69%    
  Fri, Jan 16 72 Colorado St. W 73-68 69%    
  Tue, Jan 20 107 @Wyoming W 72-69 61%    
  Sat, Jan 24 331 Air Force W 77-54 98%    
  Tue, Jan 27 182 @San Jose St. W 72-63 79%    
  Fri, Jan 30 99 @Grand Canyon W 69-67 57%    
  Tue, Feb 3 106 Nevada W 73-64 79%    
  Sat, Feb 7 84 @New Mexico W 74-73 53%    
  Fri, Feb 13 132 UNLV W 82-71 84%    
  Wed, Feb 18 51 @Utah St. L 69-72 39%    
  Sat, Feb 21 182 San Jose St. W 75-60 90%    
  Tue, Feb 24 107 Wyoming W 75-66 79%    
  Sat, Feb 28 183 @Fresno St. W 75-66 79%    
  Tue, Mar 3 56 San Diego St. W 72-69 61%    
  Sat, Mar 7 72 @Colorado St. L 70-71 48%    
Projected Record 20 - 9 14 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.5 4.8 7.5 7.0 4.5 1.8 0.5 27.7 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 2.1 6.1 6.9 3.7 0.9 0.1 20.0 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.9 5.9 5.2 1.7 0.2 0.0 15.0 3rd
4th 0.1 1.3 4.6 4.3 1.0 0.1 11.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.8 3.6 3.5 0.7 0.0 8.7 5th
6th 0.0 0.5 2.1 2.8 0.7 0.0 6.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 1.5 2.1 0.7 0.0 4.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 1.0 1.5 0.6 0.0 3.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.8 0.4 0.0 2.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.9 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 12th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.3 2.3 4.0 5.7 8.5 10.8 13.2 13.8 13.4 11.4 7.9 4.6 1.8 0.5 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.5    0.5
19-1 100.0% 1.8    1.8 0.0
18-2 98.2% 4.5    4.2 0.3
17-3 88.4% 7.0    5.6 1.4 0.0
16-4 65.6% 7.5    4.3 2.8 0.4 0.0
15-5 35.7% 4.8    1.7 2.2 0.8 0.1 0.0
14-6 10.7% 1.5    0.2 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.0
13-7 1.1% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 27.7% 27.7 18.3 7.3 1.8 0.3 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.5% 100.0% 59.4% 40.6% 4.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
19-1 1.8% 98.0% 51.6% 46.4% 5.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 95.8%
18-2 4.6% 94.2% 43.9% 50.4% 7.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.5 0.8 1.1 0.8 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.3 89.7%
17-3 7.9% 85.3% 38.9% 46.4% 8.5 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.0 1.4 1.8 1.3 0.5 1.2 76.0%
16-4 11.4% 71.6% 32.5% 39.1% 9.5 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.1 2.0 2.8 1.8 0.0 3.2 58.0%
15-5 13.4% 55.4% 26.2% 29.1% 10.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.4 2.6 2.9 0.0 6.0 39.5%
14-6 13.8% 41.7% 22.5% 19.2% 10.5 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.7 3.2 0.2 8.0 24.8%
13-7 13.2% 27.0% 16.7% 10.4% 10.8 0.0 0.1 0.7 2.5 0.2 9.6 12.4%
12-8 10.8% 16.0% 12.5% 3.5% 11.0 0.0 0.2 1.3 0.2 0.0 9.1 4.1%
11-9 8.5% 10.2% 9.1% 1.1% 11.2 0.0 0.6 0.2 7.6 1.2%
10-10 5.7% 6.3% 5.9% 0.4% 11.5 0.2 0.2 5.4 0.4%
9-11 4.0% 5.5% 5.5% 11.7 0.1 0.1 0.0 3.7
8-12 2.3% 3.2% 3.2% 12.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.3
7-13 1.3% 2.1% 2.1% 14.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.2
6-14 0.5% 0.6% 0.6% 15.0 0.0 0.5
5-15 0.2% 0.2
4-16 0.1% 0.1
3-17 0.0% 0.0
2-18 0.0% 0.0
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 41.5% 21.6% 19.9% 9.3 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.2 1.8 2.9 3.9 6.6 9.7 13.1 1.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 58.5 25.4%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 2.8 14.6 25.0 37.5 16.7 6.3