Colorado St.
Mountain West
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+8.3#67
Expected Predictive Rating+8.3#72
Pace65.5#255
Improvement+5.0#23

Offense
Total Offense+5.3#57
First Shot+5.9#43
After Offensive Rebound-0.6#226
Layup/Dunks+5.2#28
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.0#170
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.3#136
Freethrows-0.6#218
Improvement+7.2#3

Defense
Total Defense+3.0#92
First Shot+0.4#169
After Offensive Rebounds+2.6#17
Layups/Dunks+0.1#163
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.6#50
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.6#260
Freethrows+0.3#163
Improvement-2.2#299
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 10.9% 13.4% 8.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 2.3% 3.5% 1.1%
Average Seed 11.0 10.9 11.1
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 3.0% 5.4% 0.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four1.9% 2.8% 1.0%
First Round9.8% 11.9% 7.7%
Second Round2.4% 3.1% 1.7%
Sweet Sixteen0.5% 0.6% 0.4%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: UNLV (Away) - 52.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b1 - 52 - 6
Quad 25 - 47 - 10
Quad 34 - 211 - 12
Quad 410 - 021 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 278   North Dakota W 82-56 94%     1 - 0 +17.0 -4.2 +19.6
  Nov 08, 2024 269   Tennessee St. W 87-79 OT 93%     2 - 0 -0.2 -2.1 +0.8
  Nov 12, 2024 315   Denver W 74-65 96%     3 - 0 -2.7 -2.4 -0.1
  Nov 16, 2024 25   Mississippi L 69-84 26%     3 - 1 -0.1 +12.1 -14.0
  Nov 22, 2024 149   UC Riverside L 75-77 OT 83%     3 - 2 -3.9 -6.8 +3.1
  Nov 28, 2024 90   Washington L 67-73 60%     3 - 3 -0.3 -2.2 +1.9
  Nov 29, 2024 64   TCU W 76-72 OT 50%     4 - 3 +12.4 +1.5 +10.4
  Dec 04, 2024 169   Loyola Marymount W 83-54 85%     5 - 3 +26.1 +12.7 +13.9
  Dec 07, 2024 91   @ Colorado L 55-72 51%     5 - 4 -8.9 -12.6 +3.9
  Dec 14, 2024 34   Virginia Commonwealth L 68-76 32%     5 - 5 +5.1 +6.4 -1.7
  Dec 17, 2024 177   Radford W 78-68 86%     6 - 5 +6.5 +11.0 -3.2
  Dec 21, 2024 80   @ Nevada W 66-64 44%     7 - 5 1 - 0 +11.7 +4.2 +7.7
  Dec 28, 2024 38   New Mexico L 68-76 44%     7 - 6 1 - 1 +1.9 +3.0 -1.3
  Dec 31, 2024 163   @ San Jose St. W 72-50 72%     8 - 6 2 - 1 +24.4 -1.8 +25.9
  Jan 07, 2025 254   Fresno St. W 91-64 92%     9 - 6 3 - 1 +19.2 +13.0 +5.4
  Jan 11, 2025 98   UNLV W 84-62 72%     10 - 6 4 - 1 +24.4 +20.7 +5.5
  Jan 14, 2025 51   @ San Diego St. L 60-75 32%     10 - 7 4 - 2 -1.8 +0.5 -2.8
  Jan 18, 2025 166   @ Wyoming W 79-63 72%     11 - 7 5 - 2 +18.3 +16.7 +3.1
  Jan 22, 2025 49   Boise St. W 75-72 50%     12 - 7 6 - 2 +11.4 +14.6 -2.9
  Jan 25, 2025 254   @ Fresno St. W 69-64 85%     13 - 7 7 - 2 +2.3 +5.2 -2.3
  Jan 28, 2025 294   Air Force W 79-58 94%     14 - 7 8 - 2 +11.1 +7.8 +4.9
  Feb 05, 2025 38   @ New Mexico L 65-87 26%     14 - 8 8 - 3 -7.1 +5.1 -13.5
  Feb 08, 2025 51   San Diego St. W 68-63 51%     15 - 8 9 - 3 +13.2 +14.5 -0.6
  Feb 11, 2025 45   @ Utah St. L 85-93 30%     15 - 9 9 - 4 +5.9 +17.9 -12.3
  Feb 15, 2025 166   Wyoming W 88-53 85%     16 - 9 10 - 4 +32.2 +25.4 +10.6
  Feb 18, 2025 80   Nevada W 79-71 64%     17 - 9 11 - 4 +12.7 +13.7 -0.5
  Feb 22, 2025 98   @ UNLV W 69-68 52%    
  Feb 25, 2025 294   @ Air Force W 74-61 88%    
  Mar 01, 2025 45   Utah St. L 76-77 50%    
  Mar 04, 2025 163   San Jose St. W 77-66 85%    
  Mar 07, 2025 49   @ Boise St. L 69-74 30%    
Projected Record 20 - 11 14 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.6 2.4 3.0 1st
2nd 0.0 1.2 15.0 4.8 21.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 2.5 19.8 10.3 32.6 3rd
4th 0.7 10.3 14.8 0.2 26.0 4th
5th 0.3 4.6 10.7 1.6 17.2 5th
6th 0.1 0.1 0.2 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 0.4 5.4 23.5 37.5 26.1 7.2 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 33.4% 2.4    0.2 1.4 0.8
15-5 2.1% 0.6    0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0
14-6 0.0%
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10
Total 3.0% 3.0 0.2 1.5 1.0 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 7.2% 27.2% 14.9% 12.3% 10.4 0.1 0.3 0.5 1.0 0.1 5.2 14.4%
15-5 26.1% 15.8% 12.8% 3.0% 10.9 0.0 0.6 3.0 0.4 22.0 3.5%
14-6 37.5% 8.5% 7.6% 1.0% 11.2 0.2 2.3 0.8 34.3 1.1%
13-7 23.5% 5.8% 5.5% 0.3% 11.3 0.0 0.0 0.9 0.4 22.1 0.3%
12-8 5.4% 4.5% 4.3% 0.2% 11.4 0.1 0.1 5.1 0.2%
11-9 0.4% 6.8% 6.8% 12.0 0.0 0.4
10-10
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 10.9% 8.8% 2.1% 11.0 0.1 0.3 1.3 7.4 1.8 89.1 2.3%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.1% 100.0% 10.0 4.7 27.1 34.6 32.7 0.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 1.5% 24.8% 10.9 5.4 17.4 2.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 2.5% 13.9% 10.9 2.8 10.4 0.8