Colorado St.
Mountain West
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+7.3#76
Expected Predictive Rating+6.1#92
Pace67.3#218
Improvement+5.6#13

Offense
Total Offense+2.5#112
First Shot+3.4#83
After Offensive Rebound-1.0#250
Layup/Dunks+4.1#51
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.1#174
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.5#165
Freethrows-1.0#250
Improvement+4.1#17

Defense
Total Defense+4.8#55
First Shot+2.1#110
After Offensive Rebounds+2.7#13
Layups/Dunks+0.8#138
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.7#46
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.0#236
Freethrows+0.5#141
Improvement+1.5#102
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 10.5% 12.8% 7.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 1.7% 2.7% 0.7%
Average Seed 11.0 10.9 11.3
.500 or above 96.6% 98.8% 94.1%
.500 or above in Conference 96.0% 98.6% 93.1%
Conference Champion 9.0% 13.6% 4.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four1.1% 1.7% 0.4%
First Round9.9% 11.9% 7.7%
Second Round2.7% 3.5% 1.8%
Sweet Sixteen0.5% 0.9% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.2% 0.3% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Boise St. (Home) - 52.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b2 - 42 - 5
Quad 24 - 66 - 11
Quad 35 - 211 - 12
Quad 49 - 120 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 277   North Dakota W 82-56 93%     1 - 0 +16.7 -4.4 +19.6
  Nov 08, 2024 301   Tennessee St. W 87-79 OT 94%     2 - 0 -2.6 -2.3 -1.4
  Nov 12, 2024 340   Denver W 74-65 97%     3 - 0 -5.3 -5.6 +0.5
  Nov 16, 2024 19   Mississippi L 69-84 21%     3 - 1 +0.6 +12.4 -13.6
  Nov 22, 2024 175   UC Riverside L 75-77 OT 84%     3 - 2 -5.3 -6.3 +1.2
  Nov 28, 2024 95   Washington L 67-73 55%     3 - 3 +0.0 -1.3 +1.2
  Nov 29, 2024 62   TCU W 76-72 OT 45%     4 - 3 +12.7 +0.9 +11.3
  Dec 04, 2024 152   Loyola Marymount W 83-54 81%     5 - 3 +27.1 +12.5 +15.1
  Dec 07, 2024 94   @ Colorado L 55-72 44%     5 - 4 -8.2 -12.9 +4.9
  Dec 14, 2024 49   Virginia Commonwealth L 68-76 37%     5 - 5 +2.7 +5.5 -3.3
  Dec 17, 2024 204   Radford W 78-68 87%     6 - 5 +5.1 +11.0 -4.6
  Dec 21, 2024 68   @ Nevada W 66-64 36%     7 - 5 1 - 0 +12.9 +4.8 +8.2
  Dec 28, 2024 53   New Mexico L 68-76 48%     7 - 6 1 - 1 -0.3 +2.0 -2.4
  Dec 31, 2024 160   @ San Jose St. W 72-50 66%     8 - 6 2 - 1 +25.0 -2.1 +26.8
  Jan 07, 2025 254   Fresno St. W 91-64 92%     9 - 6 3 - 1 +19.0 +12.5 +5.6
  Jan 11, 2025 99   UNLV W 84-62 69%     10 - 6 4 - 1 +24.2 +18.5 +7.5
  Jan 14, 2025 47   @ San Diego St. L 60-75 27%     10 - 7 4 - 2 -1.4 +0.6 -2.6
  Jan 18, 2025 186   @ Wyoming W 79-63 71%     11 - 7 5 - 2 +17.6 +15.2 +3.9
  Jan 22, 2025 57   Boise St. W 71-70 52%    
  Jan 25, 2025 254   @ Fresno St. W 80-70 81%    
  Jan 28, 2025 275   Air Force W 73-57 94%    
  Feb 05, 2025 53   @ New Mexico L 71-77 28%    
  Feb 08, 2025 47   San Diego St. L 65-66 48%    
  Feb 11, 2025 54   @ Utah St. L 70-76 29%    
  Feb 15, 2025 186   Wyoming W 73-62 85%    
  Feb 18, 2025 68   Nevada W 68-66 57%    
  Feb 22, 2025 99   @ UNLV L 68-69 47%    
  Feb 25, 2025 275   @ Air Force W 71-60 84%    
  Mar 01, 2025 54   Utah St. L 73-74 50%    
  Mar 04, 2025 160   San Jose St. W 75-65 83%    
  Mar 07, 2025 57   @ Boise St. L 68-73 31%    
Projected Record 19 - 12 13 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.7 3.5 3.3 1.3 0.2 9.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.8 6.5 5.7 1.0 0.1 14.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.8 6.9 8.3 1.3 0.0 17.3 3rd
4th 0.6 5.9 10.0 2.0 18.5 4th
5th 0.0 0.8 5.2 9.4 3.1 0.1 18.6 5th
6th 0.1 0.8 4.2 6.9 3.0 0.1 15.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 2.1 3.1 1.1 0.1 6.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.9 3.0 8.1 13.8 19.1 21.0 17.5 10.5 4.3 1.3 0.2 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2 100.0% 0.2    0.2 0.0
17-3 96.2% 1.3    1.1 0.2
16-4 76.5% 3.3    1.7 1.4 0.3
15-5 33.2% 3.5    0.8 1.6 1.0 0.2
14-6 3.9% 0.7    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.0
13-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 9.0% 9.0 3.8 3.3 1.5 0.4 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2 0.2% 81.0% 23.8% 57.1% 8.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 75.0%
17-3 1.3% 48.9% 24.8% 24.1% 9.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.7 32.0%
16-4 4.3% 31.8% 18.7% 13.1% 10.6 0.1 0.5 0.8 0.1 3.0 16.1%
15-5 10.5% 18.8% 15.3% 3.5% 10.9 0.0 0.4 1.4 0.2 8.5 4.2%
14-6 17.5% 12.6% 11.7% 0.9% 11.1 0.0 0.1 1.6 0.4 15.3 1.0%
13-7 21.0% 8.6% 8.5% 0.1% 11.3 0.0 1.2 0.5 0.0 19.2 0.1%
12-8 19.1% 7.1% 7.0% 0.1% 11.6 0.6 0.7 0.0 17.8 0.1%
11-9 13.8% 4.1% 4.1% 11.7 0.2 0.4 0.0 13.2
10-10 8.1% 3.3% 3.3% 12.1 0.0 0.2 0.1 7.9
9-11 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 12.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.9
8-12 0.9% 0.9
7-13 0.1% 0.1
6-14 0.0% 0.0
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 10.5% 8.9% 1.6% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 1.2 6.1 2.5 0.1 0.0 89.5 1.7%