Mississippi
Southeastern
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+14.9#25
Expected Predictive Rating+17.0#16
Pace69.0#159
Improvement+0.5#161

Offense
Total Offense+6.9#39
First Shot+6.7#33
After Offensive Rebound+0.2#176
Layup/Dunks-1.0#223
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.9#71
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.2#84
Freethrows+2.7#44
Improvement-0.4#200

Defense
Total Defense+8.0#19
First Shot+7.0#21
After Offensive Rebounds+1.0#101
Layups/Dunks+7.3#14
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.0#281
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.1#204
Freethrows+0.8#125
Improvement+0.9#138
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.7% 1.2% 0.2%
Top 4 Seed 14.2% 20.7% 6.3%
Top 6 Seed 59.4% 74.1% 41.4%
NCAA Tourney Bid 99.1% 99.9% 98.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 99.1% 99.9% 98.1%
Average Seed 6.1 5.6 6.8
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 94.4% 100.0% 87.5%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.4% 0.0% 1.0%
First Round99.0% 99.9% 97.8%
Second Round67.0% 72.1% 60.8%
Sweet Sixteen27.1% 32.3% 20.7%
Elite Eight9.7% 11.3% 7.7%
Final Four3.5% 4.1% 2.8%
Championship Game0.9% 1.1% 0.8%
National Champion0.3% 0.4% 0.3%

Next Game: Vanderbilt (Away) - 54.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 6 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a5 - 85 - 8
Quad 1b3 - 38 - 11
Quad 25 - 013 - 11
Quad 32 - 015 - 11
Quad 47 - 022 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 323   LIU Brooklyn W 90-60 99%     1 - 0 +18.0 +11.6 +4.9
  Nov 08, 2024 327   Grambling St. W 66-64 99%     2 - 0 -10.7 -10.8 +0.1
  Nov 12, 2024 133   South Alabama W 64-54 92%     3 - 0 +9.0 -2.6 +12.3
  Nov 16, 2024 67   Colorado St. W 84-69 74%     4 - 0 +23.3 +23.9 +1.2
  Nov 21, 2024 322   Oral Roberts W 100-68 99%     5 - 0 +20.0 +13.6 +4.9
  Nov 28, 2024 26   BYU W 96-85 OT 50%     6 - 0 +25.9 +14.8 +9.5
  Nov 29, 2024 16   Purdue L 78-80 40%     6 - 1 +15.5 +20.0 -4.7
  Dec 03, 2024 21   @ Louisville W 86-63 37%     7 - 1 +41.3 +25.1 +17.2
  Dec 07, 2024 335   Lindenwood W 86-53 99%     8 - 1 +19.5 +14.1 +7.3
  Dec 14, 2024 280   Southern Miss W 77-46 97%     9 - 1 +24.4 +10.8 +16.6
  Dec 17, 2024 224   Southern W 74-61 96%     10 - 1 +7.1 -0.8 +7.5
  Dec 21, 2024 231   Queens W 80-62 97%     11 - 1 +11.6 +1.3 +10.0
  Dec 28, 2024 47   @ Memphis L 70-87 55%     11 - 2 -3.3 -1.1 -0.8
  Jan 04, 2025 44   Georgia W 63-51 71%     12 - 2 1 - 0 +21.1 +1.3 +20.8
  Jan 08, 2025 35   @ Arkansas W 73-66 48%     13 - 2 2 - 0 +22.3 +15.3 +7.5
  Jan 11, 2025 72   LSU W 77-65 82%     14 - 2 3 - 0 +17.3 +8.5 +8.9
  Jan 14, 2025 6   @ Alabama W 74-64 25%     15 - 2 4 - 0 +32.0 +2.3 +29.0
  Jan 18, 2025 28   @ Mississippi St. L 81-84 OT 41%     15 - 3 4 - 1 +14.3 +11.6 +2.9
  Jan 22, 2025 20   Texas A&M L 62-63 55%     15 - 4 4 - 2 +12.5 -4.6 +17.1
  Jan 25, 2025 15   @ Missouri L 75-83 30%     15 - 5 4 - 3 +12.2 +5.5 +7.1
  Jan 29, 2025 36   Texas W 72-69 67%     16 - 5 5 - 3 +13.2 +7.5 +5.9
  Feb 01, 2025 1   Auburn L 82-92 28%     16 - 6 5 - 4 +11.0 +17.0 -6.0
  Feb 04, 2025 17   Kentucky W 98-84 52%     17 - 6 6 - 4 +28.4 +26.3 +1.9
  Feb 08, 2025 72   @ LSU W 72-70 67%     18 - 6 7 - 4 +12.4 +6.6 +5.9
  Feb 12, 2025 84   @ South Carolina W 72-68 71%     19 - 6 8 - 4 +13.3 +10.7 +2.9
  Feb 15, 2025 28   Mississippi St. L 71-81 60%     19 - 7 8 - 5 +2.2 -1.8 +4.8
  Feb 22, 2025 53   @ Vanderbilt W 77-75 55%    
  Feb 26, 2025 1   @ Auburn L 70-81 14%    
  Mar 01, 2025 50   Oklahoma W 77-70 75%    
  Mar 05, 2025 5   Tennessee L 65-68 42%    
  Mar 08, 2025 4   @ Florida L 71-81 17%    
Projected Record 21 - 10 10 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.1 0.3 0.4 2nd
3rd 0.2 1.6 0.2 1.9 3rd
4th 0.0 2.0 2.7 0.1 4.8 4th
5th 0.6 8.5 1.6 10.7 5th
6th 0.3 8.4 11.5 0.2 20.4 6th
7th 0.1 5.1 19.6 2.0 26.8 7th
8th 1.0 12.1 8.8 0.1 21.9 8th
9th 3.0 7.3 0.9 11.2 9th
10th 1.4 0.3 1.8 10th
11th 0.2 0.2 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
15th 15th
16th 16th
Total 5.7 25.0 38.3 24.3 6.2 0.6 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 0.0%
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 0.6% 100.0% 6.5% 93.5% 3.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 100.0%
12-6 6.2% 100.0% 4.4% 95.6% 4.2 0.0 0.3 1.4 2.0 1.7 0.6 0.1 100.0%
11-7 24.3% 100.0% 2.3% 97.7% 5.1 0.2 1.6 4.6 8.9 6.6 2.1 0.2 0.0 100.0%
10-8 38.3% 99.9% 1.5% 98.4% 6.1 0.0 0.6 2.6 8.4 12.8 10.0 3.4 0.4 0.0 0.0 99.9%
9-9 25.0% 99.6% 1.2% 98.4% 7.3 0.1 0.3 1.6 4.2 8.1 7.0 3.3 0.5 0.1 99.6%
8-10 5.7% 86.7% 0.7% 86.0% 9.1 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.5 1.4 0.6 0.8 86.6%
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 99.1% 1.8% 97.3% 6.1 0.1 0.7 3.9 9.6 20.8 24.3 20.7 11.5 5.2 1.8 0.6 0.9 99.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 3.1% 78.1% 9.8 3.2 23.5 33.2 18.1