Mississippi
Southeastern
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+15.6#19
Expected Predictive Rating+19.2#9
Pace67.2#224
Improvement+3.3#44

Offense
Total Offense+7.3#29
First Shot+7.0#28
After Offensive Rebound+0.3#165
Layup/Dunks-1.0#215
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.0#67
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.3#77
Freethrows+2.7#39
Improvement-0.3#196

Defense
Total Defense+8.3#16
First Shot+7.2#14
After Offensive Rebounds+1.0#102
Layups/Dunks+7.3#15
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.9#271
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.1#196
Freethrows+0.8#122
Improvement+3.6#25
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.3% 0.4% 0.1%
#1 Seed 2.8% 4.0% 0.9%
Top 2 Seed 11.6% 15.4% 5.4%
Top 4 Seed 50.3% 59.5% 35.5%
Top 6 Seed 82.4% 89.2% 71.4%
NCAA Tourney Bid 98.6% 99.5% 97.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 98.5% 99.5% 97.0%
Average Seed 4.7 4.2 5.4
.500 or above 99.9% 100.0% 99.8%
.500 or above in Conference 88.6% 94.2% 79.6%
Conference Champion 5.5% 7.6% 2.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four1.2% 0.4% 2.5%
First Round98.1% 99.4% 95.9%
Second Round78.5% 82.7% 71.7%
Sweet Sixteen41.1% 45.8% 33.6%
Elite Eight16.5% 19.2% 12.0%
Final Four6.7% 7.8% 4.9%
Championship Game2.5% 2.9% 1.7%
National Champion0.8% 1.0% 0.5%

Next Game: Texas A&M (Home) - 61.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 4 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a5 - 75 - 7
Quad 1b5 - 210 - 9
Quad 25 - 114 - 10
Quad 32 - 016 - 10
Quad 47 - 023 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 314   LIU Brooklyn W 90-60 99%     1 - 0 +18.6 +10.3 +6.7
  Nov 08, 2024 325   Grambling St. W 66-64 99%     2 - 0 -10.8 -12.2 +1.4
  Nov 12, 2024 126   South Alabama W 64-54 92%     3 - 0 +9.6 -3.1 +13.4
  Nov 16, 2024 76   Colorado St. W 84-69 79%     4 - 0 +22.3 +25.7 -1.7
  Nov 21, 2024 311   Oral Roberts W 100-68 99%     5 - 0 +20.7 +13.2 +6.0
  Nov 28, 2024 44   BYU W 96-85 OT 66%     6 - 0 +22.4 +14.3 +6.7
  Nov 29, 2024 10   Purdue L 78-80 42%     6 - 1 +15.6 +21.5 -6.1
  Dec 03, 2024 27   @ Louisville W 86-63 47%     7 - 1 +39.4 +23.9 +16.5
  Dec 07, 2024 341   Lindenwood W 86-53 99%     8 - 1 +18.7 +12.7 +7.9
  Dec 14, 2024 258   Southern Miss W 77-46 96%     9 - 1 +25.5 +9.8 +18.7
  Dec 17, 2024 219   Southern W 74-61 97%     10 - 1 +7.0 -0.9 +7.4
  Dec 21, 2024 210   Queens W 80-62 96%     11 - 1 +12.8 +2.5 +10.1
  Dec 28, 2024 43   @ Memphis L 70-87 55%     11 - 2 -2.7 -1.5 +0.2
  Jan 04, 2025 34   Georgia W 63-51 70%     12 - 2 1 - 0 +22.0 +3.0 +20.1
  Jan 08, 2025 46   @ Arkansas W 73-66 57%     13 - 2 2 - 0 +20.8 +13.3 +8.0
  Jan 11, 2025 63   LSU W 77-65 82%     14 - 2 3 - 0 +17.9 +8.6 +9.4
  Jan 14, 2025 7   @ Alabama W 74-64 26%     15 - 2 4 - 0 +32.2 +3.2 +28.2
  Jan 18, 2025 23   @ Mississippi St. L 81-84 OT 41%     15 - 3 4 - 1 +14.9 +10.8 +4.3
  Jan 22, 2025 21   Texas A&M W 71-68 62%    
  Jan 25, 2025 29   @ Missouri L 73-74 47%    
  Jan 29, 2025 38   Texas W 74-68 72%    
  Feb 01, 2025 2   Auburn L 73-78 34%    
  Feb 04, 2025 15   Kentucky W 81-79 58%    
  Feb 08, 2025 63   @ LSU W 74-70 64%    
  Feb 12, 2025 82   @ South Carolina W 71-65 70%    
  Feb 15, 2025 23   Mississippi St. W 74-71 63%    
  Feb 22, 2025 48   @ Vanderbilt W 75-73 57%    
  Feb 26, 2025 2   @ Auburn L 71-81 17%    
  Mar 01, 2025 45   Oklahoma W 76-69 75%    
  Mar 05, 2025 8   Tennessee L 67-68 50%    
  Mar 08, 2025 5   @ Florida L 71-79 24%    
Projected Record 22 - 9 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.8 2.1 1.7 0.7 0.1 5.5 1st
2nd 0.1 1.8 6.1 4.0 0.5 0.0 12.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.7 6.7 4.6 0.4 0.0 13.4 3rd
4th 0.4 5.6 6.8 0.9 0.0 13.6 4th
5th 0.1 3.2 7.4 2.2 0.1 12.8 5th
6th 1.0 6.4 3.7 0.2 11.2 6th
7th 0.2 3.1 5.6 0.9 0.0 9.8 7th
8th 1.1 4.5 2.0 0.0 7.6 8th
9th 0.3 2.7 2.6 0.3 5.8 9th
10th 0.1 0.9 2.2 0.5 3.6 10th
11th 0.2 1.3 0.9 0.0 2.4 11th
12th 0.0 0.5 0.5 0.1 1.1 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.4 13th
14th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 14th
15th 0.0 0.0 0.1 15th
16th 16th
Total 0.1 0.2 1.0 3.1 7.0 11.8 17.9 19.2 17.7 12.5 6.5 2.3 0.7 0.1 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1
16-2 98.6% 0.7    0.6 0.1
15-3 74.7% 1.7    1.0 0.6 0.1
14-4 32.7% 2.1    0.6 0.9 0.5 0.0 0.0
13-5 6.3% 0.8    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0
12-6 0.3% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 5.5% 5.5 2.4 1.9 0.9 0.3 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 0.1% 0.1 0.0 0.0
16-2 0.7% 100.0% 19.4% 80.6% 1.5 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-3 2.3% 100.0% 15.6% 84.4% 2.0 0.6 1.1 0.5 0.1 100.0%
14-4 6.5% 100.0% 11.6% 88.4% 2.4 1.1 2.5 2.3 0.6 100.0%
13-5 12.5% 100.0% 8.7% 91.3% 3.0 0.5 3.1 5.2 3.1 0.6 100.0%
12-6 17.7% 100.0% 6.3% 93.7% 3.8 0.2 1.3 5.3 7.3 3.1 0.5 0.1 100.0%
11-7 19.2% 100.0% 4.0% 96.0% 4.5 0.0 0.4 3.1 6.1 6.5 2.6 0.4 0.0 100.0%
10-8 17.9% 100.0% 1.9% 98.1% 5.3 0.1 0.8 3.4 6.3 5.1 2.1 0.3 0.0 100.0%
9-9 11.8% 99.6% 1.2% 98.4% 6.1 0.2 0.8 2.4 3.8 3.3 1.1 0.2 0.1 99.6%
8-10 7.0% 98.1% 0.7% 97.4% 7.7 0.0 0.4 0.8 1.8 2.0 1.3 0.5 0.0 0.1 98.1%
7-11 3.1% 85.0% 0.3% 84.7% 9.5 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.8 0.6 0.0 0.5 84.9%
6-12 1.0% 51.0% 51.0% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.0 0.5 51.0%
5-13 0.2% 5.0% 5.0% 11.0 0.0 0.2 5.0%
4-14 0.1% 0.1
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 98.6% 4.8% 93.8% 4.7 2.8 8.7 17.4 21.4 19.2 12.9 7.9 3.7 2.2 1.3 1.0 0.1 1.4 98.5%