Lindenwood
Ohio Valley
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-11.6#342
Expected Predictive Rating-11.0#326
Pace70.9#111
Improvement+0.6#147

Offense
Total Offense-7.5#345
First Shot-6.2#337
After Offensive Rebound-1.3#267
Layup/Dunks+2.3#97
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.8#225
3 Pt Jumpshots-7.6#358
Freethrows-0.1#176
Improvement+0.3#161

Defense
Total Defense-4.1#293
First Shot-4.5#317
After Offensive Rebounds+0.5#138
Layups/Dunks-2.5#282
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.7#12
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.8#336
Freethrows+0.0#185
Improvement+0.4#161
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.9% 1.6% 0.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 1.6% 3.1% 0.6%
.500 or above in Conference 13.2% 21.9% 7.2%
Conference Champion 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 18.9% 10.5% 24.7%
First Four0.9% 1.5% 0.4%
First Round0.4% 0.7% 0.2%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Southeast Missouri St. (Home) - 40.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 20 - 00 - 3
Quad 30 - 40 - 7
Quad 49 - 1210 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 44   @ Oklahoma L 60-93 2%     0 - 1 -19.0 -10.5 -7.1
  Nov 14, 2024 347   New Orleans L 74-82 52%     0 - 2 -20.0 -7.5 -12.3
  Nov 15, 2024 216   @ Robert Morris L 53-67 15%     0 - 3 -14.6 -13.1 -3.1
  Nov 17, 2024 316   Stonehill W 75-74 40%     1 - 3 -7.9 +0.7 -8.6
  Nov 21, 2024 214   @ Valparaiso L 64-77 15%     1 - 4 -13.3 -11.3 -1.6
  Nov 27, 2024 33   @ Missouri L 61-81 1%     1 - 5 -4.5 -7.6 +3.8
  Dec 07, 2024 20   @ Mississippi L 53-86 1%     1 - 6 -14.8 -7.1 -9.5
  Dec 14, 2024 327   IU Indianapolis W 81-63 55%     2 - 6 +5.2 +2.4 +3.4
  Dec 19, 2024 317   Tennessee Tech L 73-79 50%     2 - 7 0 - 1 -17.6 -7.3 -10.1
  Dec 21, 2024 336   Western Illinois W 71-65 60%     3 - 7 1 - 1 -8.1 -7.3 -0.6
  Jan 02, 2025 343   @ Eastern Illinois L 74-78 OT 41%     3 - 8 1 - 2 -13.2 -13.7 +1.2
  Jan 04, 2025 263   @ SIU Edwardsville L 47-58 21%     3 - 9 1 - 3 -14.2 -24.2 +9.7
  Jan 09, 2025 301   Tennessee St. W 72-62 46%     4 - 9 2 - 3 -0.5 -8.3 +7.2
  Jan 11, 2025 289   Tennessee Martin W 82-81 43%     5 - 9 3 - 3 -8.8 +5.3 -14.1
  Jan 16, 2025 324   @ Southern Indiana L 73-80 34%     5 - 10 3 - 4 -14.3 -2.8 -11.5
  Jan 18, 2025 256   @ Morehead St. L 65-82 21%     5 - 11 3 - 5 -19.9 -1.7 -19.7
  Jan 23, 2025 270   Southeast Missouri St. L 70-73 41%    
  Jan 25, 2025 241   Arkansas Little Rock L 66-71 35%    
  Jan 30, 2025 263   SIU Edwardsville L 67-70 39%    
  Feb 01, 2025 343   Eastern Illinois W 70-67 62%    
  Feb 06, 2025 289   @ Tennessee Martin L 68-75 24%    
  Feb 08, 2025 301   @ Tennessee St. L 71-77 27%    
  Feb 13, 2025 256   Morehead St. L 65-68 39%    
  Feb 15, 2025 324   Southern Indiana W 72-71 54%    
  Feb 20, 2025 241   @ Arkansas Little Rock L 64-74 18%    
  Feb 22, 2025 270   @ Southeast Missouri St. L 68-76 22%    
  Feb 25, 2025 336   @ Western Illinois L 66-69 39%    
  Mar 01, 2025 317   @ Tennessee Tech L 69-74 30%    
Projected Record 9 - 19 7 - 13




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Ohio Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 0.5 0.1 1.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.7 1.3 0.3 2.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.7 2.9 1.3 0.0 5.0 5th
6th 0.7 4.1 3.4 0.3 8.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.9 5.6 5.5 1.0 0.0 13.1 7th
8th 0.0 1.5 6.4 8.3 2.3 0.1 18.6 8th
9th 0.1 1.7 7.3 10.0 3.4 0.2 22.8 9th
10th 0.2 1.5 6.2 7.2 2.9 0.3 0.0 18.3 10th
11th 0.9 3.6 3.6 1.5 0.1 9.7 11th
Total 1.1 5.2 11.5 17.5 20.3 18.2 12.9 8.1 3.5 1.1 0.4 0.1 Total



Ohio Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 40.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
13-7 12.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.9% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 0.1% 0.0 0.1
13-7 0.4% 20.0% 20.0% 16.0 0.1 0.3
12-8 1.1% 10.6% 10.6% 16.0 0.1 1.0
11-9 3.5% 5.4% 5.4% 16.0 0.2 3.3
10-10 8.1% 2.2% 2.2% 16.0 0.2 7.9
9-11 12.9% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.2 12.7
8-12 18.2% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.1 18.1
7-13 20.3% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 20.3
6-14 17.5% 17.5
5-15 11.5% 11.5
4-16 5.2% 5.2
3-17 1.1% 1.1
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 0.9% 0.9% 0.0% 16.0 0.9 99.1 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 1.1%