Lindenwood
Ohio Valley
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-11.0#335
Expected Predictive Rating-8.3#301
Pace71.5#85
Improvement+2.3#89

Offense
Total Offense-8.3#352
First Shot-6.9#343
After Offensive Rebound-1.4#268
Layup/Dunks+1.9#112
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.0#238
3 Pt Jumpshots-7.5#357
Freethrows-0.2#188
Improvement+0.5#158

Defense
Total Defense-2.7#248
First Shot-3.3#280
After Offensive Rebounds+0.5#129
Layups/Dunks-2.0#257
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.6#13
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.2#326
Freethrows+0.2#167
Improvement+1.8#87
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.8% 1.5% 0.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 2.2% 9.8% 0.8%
.500 or above in Conference 66.5% 100.0% 60.3%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.7% 1.1% 0.6%
First Round0.3% 0.6% 0.2%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Southeast Missouri St. (Away) - 15.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 20 - 00 - 3
Quad 31 - 41 - 7
Quad 412 - 1012 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 50   @ Oklahoma L 60-93 2%     0 - 1 -19.6 -9.8 -8.3
  Nov 14, 2024 353   New Orleans L 74-82 59%     0 - 2 -21.2 -8.3 -12.7
  Nov 15, 2024 173   @ Robert Morris L 53-67 12%     0 - 3 -12.0 -12.2 -1.4
  Nov 17, 2024 324   Stonehill W 75-74 45%     1 - 3 -8.7 -0.6 -8.1
  Nov 21, 2024 238   @ Valparaiso L 64-77 19%     1 - 4 -14.6 -13.4 -0.9
  Nov 27, 2024 15   @ Missouri L 61-81 1%     1 - 5 +0.2 -6.9 +7.7
  Dec 07, 2024 25   @ Mississippi L 53-86 1%     1 - 6 -15.6 -7.5 -9.9
  Dec 14, 2024 326   IU Indianapolis W 81-63 56%     2 - 6 +5.4 +0.4 +5.7
  Dec 19, 2024 308   Tennessee Tech L 73-79 50%     2 - 7 0 - 1 -17.0 -7.1 -9.8
  Dec 21, 2024 351   Western Illinois W 71-65 67%     3 - 7 1 - 1 -9.5 -7.8 -1.5
  Jan 02, 2025 338   @ Eastern Illinois L 74-78 OT 42%     3 - 8 1 - 2 -12.9 -11.8 -0.4
  Jan 04, 2025 234   @ SIU Edwardsville L 47-58 18%     3 - 9 1 - 3 -12.4 -23.2 +10.5
  Jan 09, 2025 269   Tennessee St. W 72-62 39%     4 - 9 2 - 3 +1.8 -8.4 +9.6
  Jan 11, 2025 306   Tennessee Martin W 82-81 50%     5 - 9 3 - 3 -9.9 +4.8 -14.7
  Jan 16, 2025 343   @ Southern Indiana L 73-80 45%     5 - 10 3 - 4 -16.7 -4.1 -12.6
  Jan 18, 2025 329   @ Morehead St. L 65-82 38%     5 - 11 3 - 5 -24.8 -5.4 -20.9
  Jan 23, 2025 217   Southeast Missouri St. W 72-68 30%     6 - 11 4 - 5 -1.7 -3.9 +2.1
  Jan 25, 2025 233   Arkansas Little Rock L 46-78 33%     6 - 12 4 - 6 -38.5 -24.3 -15.4
  Jan 30, 2025 234   SIU Edwardsville W 65-63 33%     7 - 12 5 - 6 -4.5 -9.4 +4.9
  Feb 01, 2025 338   Eastern Illinois L 70-76 62%     7 - 13 5 - 7 -20.0 -5.7 -14.3
  Feb 06, 2025 306   @ Tennessee Martin W 52-51 31%     8 - 13 6 - 7 -4.8 -19.5 +14.8
  Feb 08, 2025 269   @ Tennessee St. L 76-84 23%     8 - 14 6 - 8 -11.1 +0.4 -11.3
  Feb 13, 2025 329   Morehead St. W 73-60 57%     9 - 14 7 - 8 +0.1 -1.5 +2.4
  Feb 15, 2025 343   Southern Indiana W 81-78 OT 65%     10 - 14 8 - 8 -11.8 -10.3 -1.9
  Feb 20, 2025 233   @ Arkansas Little Rock W 93-92 OT 18%     11 - 14 9 - 8 -0.4 +8.8 -9.4
  Feb 22, 2025 217   @ Southeast Missouri St. L 66-76 16%    
  Feb 25, 2025 351   @ Western Illinois L 68-69 45%    
  Mar 01, 2025 308   @ Tennessee Tech L 69-74 30%    
Projected Record 12 - 16 10 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Ohio Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.6 0.6 3rd
4th 0.0 3.0 1.3 4.3 4th
5th 8.1 14.5 0.7 23.3 5th
6th 1.7 26.4 1.7 29.8 6th
7th 19.3 10.2 29.5 7th
8th 12.5 12.5 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 33.5 44.7 19.2 2.5 Total



Ohio Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8 2.5% 3.2% 3.2% 15.9 0.0 0.1 2.5
11-9 19.2% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.3 19.0
10-10 44.7% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.3 44.4
9-11 33.5% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.2 33.4
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 0.8% 0.8% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 0.8 99.2 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.6%
Lose Out 20.5%