Ohio Valley
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
238 Arkansas Little Rock 25.6%   16   9 - 7 5 - 2 18 - 11 14 - 6 -4.3      -5.5 321 +1.2 135 69.1 169 -1.5 197 -1.8 2
259 Morehead St. 22.8%   9 - 7 7 - 1 16 - 12 14 - 6 -5.5      -4.8 304 -0.7 203 63.1 317 -1.7 200 +3.1 1
263 SIU Edwardsville 15.8%   9 - 7 5 - 3 16 - 12 12 - 8 -5.8      -4.8 305 -1.0 209 65.1 265 -3.9 234 -4.6 3
269 Southeast Missouri St. 14.2%   7 - 9 5 - 3 14 - 14 12 - 8 -6.2      -4.8 303 -1.4 221 71.8 92 -5.6 261 -5.4 5
288 Tennessee Martin 9.9%   6 - 10 5 - 3 12 - 16 11 - 9 -7.2      -3.5 266 -3.7 281 68.1 199 -7.8 296 -5.4 4
301 Tennessee St. 4.7%   4 - 12 3 - 5 10 - 18 9 - 11 -7.8      -5.3 315 -2.6 256 75.9 29 -12.3 332 -11.1 7
317 Tennessee Tech 3.5%   7 - 10 4 - 4 13 - 16 10 - 10 -9.0      -4.5 296 -4.4 300 68.3 195 -8.3 302 -8.3 6
324 Southern Indiana 2.0%   6 - 10 3 - 5 11 - 17 8 - 12 -9.8      -5.4 319 -4.5 302 68.9 174 -9.2 308 -11.8 9
336 Western Illinois 0.6%   5 - 11 2 - 6 9 - 19 6 - 14 -11.4      -5.2 313 -6.2 340 60.5 350 -11.0 327 -14.0 10
341 Lindenwood 0.7%   5 - 11 3 - 5 9 - 19 7 - 13 -11.5      -7.5 345 -4.0 291 70.9 113 -10.9 326 -11.6 8
344 Eastern Illinois 0.4%   2 - 13 1 - 6 7 - 21 6 - 14 -11.8      -8.6 355 -3.2 269 67.2 219 -17.1 357 -19.5 11





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th
Arkansas Little Rock 2.3 36.2 29.2 16.5 9.5 4.8 2.3 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0
Morehead St. 1.8 55.0 22.6 11.8 5.9 3.0 1.2 0.3 0.1 0.0
SIU Edwardsville 3.4 15.6 20.2 21.8 17.7 12.5 6.4 3.2 1.8 0.6 0.2 0.0
Southeast Missouri St. 3.7 10.9 17.4 20.9 19.7 15.0 8.5 4.5 2.1 0.9 0.3 0.0
Tennessee Martin 4.2 7.1 13.8 18.6 19.6 17.6 11.6 6.6 3.3 1.5 0.4 0.1
Tennessee St. 6.4 0.7 2.3 5.8 9.7 14.2 19.4 18.3 14.2 9.2 5.0 1.3
Tennessee Tech 6.0 1.2 3.9 7.1 11.7 15.4 20.1 17.8 11.9 6.9 3.2 0.8
Southern Indiana 7.5 0.2 0.8 2.3 4.3 7.8 13.7 18.1 19.4 16.3 11.4 5.7
Western Illinois 9.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.1 2.4 5.1 9.5 14.6 20.7 26.3 19.9
Lindenwood 8.2 0.1 0.4 1.0 2.5 4.5 8.6 14.6 19.3 21.4 18.3 9.3
Eastern Illinois 9.6 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 1.4 3.3 6.2 10.2 15.2 22.8 40.0




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
Arkansas Little Rock 14 - 6 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.5 3.5 7.7 13.1 17.7 19.6 17.6 12.1 5.5 1.1
Morehead St. 14 - 6 0.1 0.5 1.7 4.3 8.7 15.2 18.8 20.1 16.0 9.7 4.2 0.8
SIU Edwardsville 12 - 8 0.0 0.1 0.6 2.1 5.1 9.8 15.5 19.2 19.2 15.1 9.1 3.7 0.7
Southeast Missouri St. 12 - 8 0.0 0.2 0.9 2.8 7.1 11.7 17.6 20.4 17.6 12.8 6.4 2.1 0.4
Tennessee Martin 11 - 9 0.0 0.4 1.6 4.5 9.1 15.3 19.3 19.7 15.5 9.1 4.1 1.2 0.2
Tennessee St. 9 - 11 0.1 0.5 2.0 6.0 11.5 16.5 19.7 18.4 13.6 7.9 3.1 0.8 0.1
Tennessee Tech 10 - 10 0.2 0.9 3.8 9.0 15.3 19.8 19.4 15.1 9.6 4.9 1.7 0.3 0.1
Southern Indiana 8 - 12 0.4 2.5 6.6 12.9 17.2 20.6 17.0 12.0 7.0 3.0 0.8 0.1 0.0
Western Illinois 6 - 14 0.8 3.9 10.8 16.9 20.8 19.4 14.0 8.0 3.5 1.5 0.2 0.0
Lindenwood 7 - 13 1.0 5.1 11.1 17.9 20.6 18.6 13.3 7.6 3.1 1.3 0.3 0.0 0.0
Eastern Illinois 6 - 14 0.9 4.2 10.7 15.7 19.4 17.6 13.5 9.8 5.0 2.2 0.7 0.2 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Arkansas Little Rock 36.2% 22.7 10.4 2.5 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0
Morehead St. 55.0% 39.2 12.5 2.8 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0
SIU Edwardsville 15.6% 8.0 5.3 1.8 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
Southeast Missouri St. 10.9% 4.9 4.1 1.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Tennessee Martin 7.1% 2.8 2.7 1.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Tennessee St. 0.7% 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0
Tennessee Tech 1.2% 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0
Southern Indiana 0.2% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
Western Illinois 0.0% 0.0
Lindenwood 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Eastern Illinois 0.0% 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Arkansas Little Rock 25.6% 25.6% 0.0% 16   0.0 0.2 1.2 7.3 16.9 74.5 0.0%
Morehead St. 22.8% 22.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.3 3.1 19.4 77.2 0.0%
SIU Edwardsville 15.8% 15.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.3 2.7 12.8 84.2 0.0%
Southeast Missouri St. 14.2% 14.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.5 12.5 85.8 0.0%
Tennessee Martin 9.9% 9.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.8 9.1 90.1 0.0%
Tennessee St. 4.7% 4.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 4.5 95.3 0.0%
Tennessee Tech 3.5% 3.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 3.3 96.5 0.0%
Southern Indiana 2.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.1 1.9 98.0 0.0%
Western Illinois 0.6% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.6 99.4 0.0%
Lindenwood 0.7% 0.7% 0.0% 0.7 99.3 0.0%
Eastern Illinois 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.4 99.6 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Arkansas Little Rock 25.6% 8.4% 21.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Morehead St. 22.8% 12.4% 16.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
SIU Edwardsville 15.8% 7.8% 11.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Southeast Missouri St. 14.2% 8.3% 9.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Tennessee Martin 9.9% 7.0% 6.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Tennessee St. 4.7% 4.1% 2.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Tennessee Tech 3.5% 2.8% 1.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Southern Indiana 2.0% 1.8% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Western Illinois 0.6% 0.6% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Lindenwood 0.7% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Eastern Illinois 0.4% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0
1st Round 71.6% 0.7 28.4 71.6
2nd Round 0.5% 0.0 99.5 0.5
Sweet Sixteen 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.1
Elite Eight 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0