Preseason Rankings
Ohio Valley
2024-25


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
224 Morehead St. 27.1%   16   0 - 0 0 - 0 17 - 11 14 - 6 -3.1      -3.0 271 -0.1 170 62.4 337 0.0 1 0.0 1
267 Arkansas Little Rock 17.3%   0 - 0 0 - 0 16 - 13 12 - 8 -5.1      -1.5 220 -3.6 299 71.0 101 0.0 1 0.0 1
294 Western Illinois 11.4%   0 - 0 0 - 0 14 - 14 11 - 9 -6.8      -4.9 316 -1.9 237 62.9 329 0.0 1 0.0 1
309 Tennessee St. 9.5%   0 - 0 0 - 0 13 - 15 10 - 10 -7.7      -4.5 306 -3.2 282 69.9 132 0.0 1 0.0 1
316 SIU Edwardsville 7.5%   0 - 0 0 - 0 12 - 16 10 - 10 -8.4      -5.0 318 -3.4 287 66.8 233 0.0 1 0.0 1
323 Tennessee Martin 5.9%   0 - 0 0 - 0 11 - 17 9 - 11 -9.3      -4.1 301 -5.2 340 79.8 9 0.0 1 0.0 1
326 Eastern Illinois 5.3%   0 - 0 0 - 0 10 - 18 9 - 11 -9.6      -6.1 338 -3.5 294 66.6 240 0.0 1 0.0 1
327 Southeast Missouri St. 5.4%   0 - 0 0 - 0 11 - 17 9 - 11 -9.6      -5.8 334 -3.9 311 72.1 77 0.0 1 0.0 1
328 Southern Indiana 5.0%   0 - 0 0 - 0 11 - 17 9 - 11 -9.9      -5.4 329 -4.4 325 71.5 89 0.0 1 0.0 1
336 Tennessee Tech 3.6%   0 - 0 0 - 0 11 - 17 8 - 12 -10.9      -6.2 343 -4.7 328 65.1 279 0.0 1 0.0 1
349 Lindenwood 2.0%   0 - 0 0 - 0 9 - 19 7 - 13 -12.5      -7.0 348 -5.5 343 68.0 190 0.0 1 0.0 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th
Morehead St. 2.9 37.7 19.4 12.5 9.0 6.7 5.0 3.6 2.6 1.8 1.2 0.6
Arkansas Little Rock 3.9 22.0 17.5 13.9 11.1 9.0 7.4 6.1 4.9 3.9 2.6 1.7
Western Illinois 4.9 12.4 13.3 12.6 11.6 10.6 9.4 8.5 7.3 6.2 4.8 3.4
Tennessee St. 5.3 10.7 11.5 11.6 10.9 10.5 9.9 9.0 8.1 7.3 6.2 4.4
SIU Edwardsville 5.7 8.7 10.0 10.5 10.6 10.1 9.9 9.6 8.9 8.4 7.4 5.9
Tennessee Martin 6.1 6.5 7.9 9.0 9.6 10.1 10.3 10.2 9.8 9.9 9.1 7.7
Eastern Illinois 6.3 5.7 7.4 8.5 9.6 9.8 10.0 10.1 10.4 10.1 9.9 8.4
Southeast Missouri St. 6.3 6.1 7.4 8.8 9.2 9.8 10.3 10.3 10.4 9.9 9.5 8.4
Southern Indiana 6.4 5.3 7.3 8.6 9.0 9.4 9.9 10.3 10.5 10.8 9.9 9.0
Tennessee Tech 7.0 3.6 5.5 6.5 7.7 8.5 9.5 10.7 11.1 12.1 12.4 12.4
Lindenwood 7.8 2.1 3.3 4.5 5.8 6.9 8.2 9.5 11.1 13.2 15.5 19.9




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
Morehead St. 14 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.2 1.9 2.7 4.2 5.6 7.4 8.7 10.2 11.4 11.4 11.1 9.8 7.3 4.4 1.7
Arkansas Little Rock 12 - 8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.9 1.6 2.7 3.9 5.3 6.9 8.0 9.5 10.4 10.6 10.4 9.4 7.9 5.8 3.7 1.8 0.6
Western Illinois 11 - 9 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.0 2.0 3.2 4.5 6.1 7.8 8.9 9.8 10.4 10.3 9.8 8.3 6.7 4.9 3.0 1.7 0.7 0.2
Tennessee St. 10 - 10 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.5 2.6 3.9 5.5 7.0 8.2 9.6 10.0 10.2 9.7 8.7 7.4 5.9 4.1 2.5 1.3 0.5 0.1
SIU Edwardsville 10 - 10 0.1 0.4 1.0 2.0 3.3 5.0 6.4 7.9 9.0 9.9 10.0 9.7 9.2 7.9 6.5 4.8 3.3 2.1 1.1 0.4 0.1
Tennessee Martin 9 - 11 0.2 0.6 1.4 2.8 4.1 6.1 7.6 8.7 9.9 10.4 10.3 9.3 8.1 6.7 5.3 3.7 2.4 1.5 0.8 0.2 0.0
Eastern Illinois 9 - 11 0.2 0.7 1.6 3.0 4.8 6.3 8.0 9.1 10.1 10.3 9.8 9.2 7.9 6.4 4.9 3.5 2.2 1.2 0.6 0.2 0.0
Southeast Missouri St. 9 - 11 0.2 0.7 1.7 3.0 4.4 6.2 7.9 9.1 10.2 10.2 10.1 9.0 7.9 6.6 4.9 3.4 2.3 1.3 0.6 0.2 0.0
Southern Indiana 9 - 11 0.2 0.8 1.9 3.1 4.8 6.7 8.2 9.5 10.1 10.0 9.7 8.9 7.8 6.4 4.8 3.3 2.1 1.2 0.4 0.2 0.0
Tennessee Tech 8 - 12 0.3 1.1 2.9 4.5 6.2 8.0 9.5 10.3 10.5 10.2 9.1 7.8 6.5 4.9 3.3 2.3 1.4 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0
Lindenwood 7 - 13 0.8 2.4 4.6 6.9 8.7 10.0 10.8 10.7 10.0 9.0 7.8 5.9 4.5 3.2 2.1 1.3 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Morehead St. 37.7% 28.8 7.3 1.4 0.2 0.0 0.0
Arkansas Little Rock 22.0% 15.4 5.2 1.1 0.2 0.0 0.0
Western Illinois 12.4% 8.2 3.3 0.8 0.1 0.0 0.0
Tennessee St. 10.7% 6.9 2.9 0.8 0.1 0.0 0.0
SIU Edwardsville 8.7% 5.5 2.4 0.7 0.1 0.0
Tennessee Martin 6.5% 4.0 1.8 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0
Eastern Illinois 5.7% 3.4 1.7 0.5 0.1 0.0
Southeast Missouri St. 6.1% 3.7 1.7 0.5 0.1 0.0
Southern Indiana 5.3% 3.2 1.5 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0
Tennessee Tech 3.6% 2.0 1.2 0.3 0.1 0.0
Lindenwood 2.1% 1.2 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Morehead St. 27.1% 27.1% 0.0% 16   0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.9 2.6 4.7 7.7 11.1 72.9 0.0%
Arkansas Little Rock 17.3% 17.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.4 3.2 12.1 82.7 0.0%
Western Illinois 11.4% 11.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 2.1 8.1 88.6 0.0%
Tennessee St. 9.5% 9.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.6 7.1 90.5 0.0%
SIU Edwardsville 7.5% 7.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.1 5.9 92.5 0.0%
Tennessee Martin 5.9% 5.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.8 4.8 94.1 0.0%
Eastern Illinois 5.3% 5.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 4.4 94.7 0.0%
Southeast Missouri St. 5.4% 5.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 4.5 94.6 0.0%
Southern Indiana 5.0% 5.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 4.1 95.0 0.0%
Tennessee Tech 3.6% 3.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 3.1 96.4 0.0%
Lindenwood 2.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.6 98.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Morehead St. 27.1% 6.3% 23.9% 1.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Arkansas Little Rock 17.3% 8.6% 13.4% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Western Illinois 11.4% 5.9% 8.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Tennessee St. 9.5% 5.1% 6.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
SIU Edwardsville 7.5% 4.5% 5.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Tennessee Martin 5.9% 3.7% 4.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Eastern Illinois 5.3% 3.3% 3.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Southeast Missouri St. 5.4% 3.6% 3.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Southern Indiana 5.0% 3.1% 3.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Tennessee Tech 3.6% 2.4% 2.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Lindenwood 2.0% 1.2% 1.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0
1st Round 76.0% 0.8 24.0 76.0
2nd Round 2.5% 0.0 97.5 2.5
Sweet Sixteen 0.4% 0.0 99.6 0.4
Elite Eight 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0