Ohio Valley
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
226 Tennessee Martin 24.3%   16   12 - 5 7 - 2 -3.8      -4.5 293 +0.7 143 64.6 292 +1.4 141 -0.1 1
237 Lindenwood 17.4%   9 - 8 6 - 3 -4.2      -4.5 294 +0.3 158 78.5 15 -3.7 226 -3.8 5
241 Tennessee St. 16.3%   9 - 7 6 - 3 -4.4      -1.7 216 -2.7 260 74.9 44 -1.4 191 -3.8 4
245 Southeast Missouri St. 11.6%   8 - 10 6 - 4 -4.6      -4.0 284 -0.6 187 72.8 78 -6.1 263 -5.9 6
257 SIU Edwardsville 12.1%   9 - 8 5 - 4 -5.1      -5.7 319 +0.6 146 63.5 319 -5.8 259 -6.3 8
282 Arkansas Little Rock 9.2%   7 - 11 6 - 3 -6.7      -2.9 254 -3.8 289 66.4 251 -5.9 260 -3.0 3
302 Morehead St. 5.8%   7 - 10 6 - 3 -8.1      -2.4 232 -5.7 333 64.7 290 -5.7 257 -2.6 2
310 Eastern Illinois 3.0%   6 - 11 5 - 4 -8.7      -9.2 358 +0.5 150 65.9 269 -7.2 281 -6.0 7
329 Southern Indiana 0.2%   2 - 15 1 - 8 -10.6      -8.9 355 -1.7 229 69.2 171 -16.9 354 -18.5 10
342 Tennessee Tech 0.2%   4 - 13 2 - 7 -11.5      -6.7 333 -4.8 313 69.9 158 -12.4 338 -14.7 9
356 Western Illinois 0.0%   1 - 16 0 - 9 -14.1      -9.6 360 -4.5 305 64.4 299 -20.2 360 -22.2 11


Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Interest
Tue, Jan 20 245 Southeast Missouri St. 66 226 Tennessee Martin 50   
Thu, Jan 22 257 SIU Edwardsville 74 241 Tennessee St. 66   
Thu, Jan 22 302 Morehead St. 71 356 Western Illinois 66   
Thu, Jan 22 310 Eastern Illinois 59 329 Southern Indiana 51   
Thu, Jan 22 282 Arkansas Little Rock 65 245 Southeast Missouri St. 70   
Thu, Jan 22 237 Lindenwood 89 342 Tennessee Tech 68   


Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Interest
Fri, Jan 23 329 Southern Indiana 69 356 Western Illinois 63 73%   
Sat, Jan 24 237 Lindenwood 82 241 Tennessee St. 79 62%   
Sat, Jan 24 310 Eastern Illinois 65 302 Morehead St. 69 64%   
Sat, Jan 24 257 SIU Edwardsville 72 342 Tennessee Tech 63 81%   
Tue, Jan 27 241 Tennessee St. 82 342 Tennessee Tech 72 83%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Season

Projected Place
Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th
Tennessee Martin 2.0 56.8 18.9 10.2 6.3 3.9 2.2 1.2 0.5
Lindenwood 3.2 24.8 22.6 15.8 11.5 9.6 7.3 5.5 2.7 0.2 0.0
Tennessee St. 3.5 16.9 20.9 17.7 14.9 11.8 8.8 5.9 3.0 0.2 0.0
Southeast Missouri St. 4.8 4.7 10.0 14.1 16.3 17.2 15.6 13.6 7.8 0.6 0.1
SIU Edwardsville 4.5 8.2 13.3 15.1 14.9 14.3 13.5 11.7 8.0 1.0 0.1 0.0
Arkansas Little Rock 4.1 13.4 14.8 15.3 14.6 13.1 11.8 10.0 6.4 0.6 0.0
Morehead St. 4.6 8.4 12.9 14.2 14.1 13.9 13.6 12.3 9.7 1.0 0.1
Eastern Illinois 6.2 2.1 4.5 6.5 8.9 10.9 14.4 18.7 29.0 4.3 0.6 0.0
Southern Indiana 9.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.8 6.9 41.4 36.0 13.2
Tennessee Tech 9.3 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.9 2.3 7.7 46.7 33.8 8.0
Western Illinois 10.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.9 12.0 23.7 63.3

Projected Wins
Team Exp Conf Record Exp Overall Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
Tennessee Martin 14 - 6 19 - 9 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.8 5.3 11.1 17.2 21.8 20.8 14.1 5.9 1.4
Lindenwood 13 - 7 16 - 12 0.0 0.2 1.0 3.4 7.9 13.8 18.9 20.8 17.6 11.0 4.5 0.9
Tennessee St. 12 - 7 15 - 11 0.2 0.9 3.9 9.3 17.0 22.6 22.0 15.8 6.9 1.4
Southeast Missouri St. 11 - 8 13 - 14 0.1 0.7 3.3 9.3 18.8 24.6 23.1 13.9 5.4 0.9
SIU Edwardsville 11 - 9 15 - 13 0.0 0.2 1.1 3.7 8.9 15.1 21.3 21.2 16.0 8.8 3.0 0.5
Arkansas Little Rock 12 - 8 13 - 16 0.1 0.7 2.9 7.4 13.4 19.9 20.5 17.2 11.0 5.2 1.6 0.2
Morehead St. 11 - 9 12 - 16 0.1 1.1 4.4 9.8 16.3 20.5 20.2 15.0 8.5 3.2 0.8 0.1
Eastern Illinois 10 - 10 11 - 17 0.3 2.1 6.6 13.7 19.1 21.2 17.5 11.4 5.6 2.0 0.5 0.1
Southern Indiana 5 - 15 6 - 22 0.6 3.7 10.4 17.6 22.2 19.7 14.3 7.6 3.0 0.8 0.2 0.0
Tennessee Tech 6 - 14 8 - 20 1.8 7.7 16.2 22.6 21.7 15.7 9.1 3.6 1.2 0.4 0.0
Western Illinois 3 - 17 4 - 24 3.7 11.4 20.3 23.0 19.4 12.6 6.2 2.5 0.7 0.2 0.0

Projected Regular Season Champion
Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Tennessee Martin 56.8% 39.0 12.8 3.7 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.0
Lindenwood 24.8% 13.0 7.8 2.9 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0
Tennessee St. 16.9% 7.4 6.0 2.5 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0
Southeast Missouri St. 4.7% 1.2 1.7 1.3 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0
SIU Edwardsville 8.2% 2.8 3.2 1.5 0.6 0.2 0.0
Arkansas Little Rock 13.4% 5.9 4.8 1.9 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0
Morehead St. 8.4% 3.3 3.0 1.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
Eastern Illinois 2.1% 0.6 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Southern Indiana
Tennessee Tech
Western Illinois


NCAA Tournament Selection and Simulation

Tournament Selection
TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Tennessee Martin 24.3% 24.3% 0.0% 16   0.1 0.9 3.9 13.1 6.5 75.7 0.0%
Lindenwood 17.4% 17.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 1.0 6.4 9.8 82.6 0.0%
Tennessee St. 16.3% 16.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.3 1.7 7.7 6.6 83.8 0.0%
Southeast Missouri St. 11.6% 11.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.4 3.1 8.2 88.4 0.0%
SIU Edwardsville 12.1% 12.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.3 3.0 8.8 87.9 0.0%
Arkansas Little Rock 9.2% 9.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 1.1 8.0 90.8 0.0%
Morehead St. 5.8% 5.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.6 5.2 94.2 0.0%
Eastern Illinois 3.0% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.3 2.7 97.0 0.0%
Southern Indiana 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2 99.8 0.0%
Tennessee Tech 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2 99.8 0.0%
Western Illinois 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%

Conference Totals
Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0
1st Round 88.4% 0.9 11.6 88.4
2nd Round 0.6% 0.0 99.4 0.6
Sweet Sixteen 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Elite Eight 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0

Tournament Simulation
TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Tennessee Martin 24.3% 1.1% 23.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Lindenwood 17.4% 3.3% 15.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Tennessee St. 16.3% 1.5% 15.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Southeast Missouri St. 11.6% 3.6% 10.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
SIU Edwardsville 12.1% 3.6% 10.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Arkansas Little Rock 9.2% 5.1% 6.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Morehead St. 5.8% 3.3% 4.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Eastern Illinois 3.0% 1.9% 1.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Southern Indiana 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Tennessee Tech 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Western Illinois 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%