North Dakota
Summit League
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-6.5#278
Expected Predictive Rating-8.1#298
Pace70.7#113
Improvement+1.4#121

Offense
Total Offense+0.8#157
First Shot-2.7#255
After Offensive Rebound+3.4#20
Layup/Dunks-2.5#274
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.2#165
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.8#149
Freethrows-1.2#261
Improvement+1.8#100

Defense
Total Defense-7.2#353
First Shot-8.2#358
After Offensive Rebounds+1.0#102
Layups/Dunks-3.1#296
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.9#314
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.9#296
Freethrows-0.3#204
Improvement-0.3#200
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.5% 1.8% 1.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 3.0% 0.0% 4.4%
First Four1.5% 1.8% 1.4%
First Round0.9% 1.0% 0.8%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: North Dakota St. (Home) - 32.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 50 - 7
Quad 34 - 64 - 13
Quad 44 - 88 - 21


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 67   @ Colorado St. L 56-82 6%     0 - 1 -15.1 -15.9 +2.3
  Nov 14, 2024 125   Utah Valley W 77-71 28%     1 - 1 +5.5 +5.3 +0.2
  Nov 19, 2024 95   @ Notre Dame L 58-75 10%     1 - 2 -9.3 -10.4 +0.5
  Nov 22, 2024 169   @ Loyola Marymount W 77-73 21%     2 - 2 +6.2 +5.2 +0.8
  Nov 26, 2024 293   Bethune-Cookman L 67-79 53%     2 - 3 -19.3 -7.9 -11.3
  Nov 27, 2024 213   SE Louisiana L 60-76 35%     2 - 4 -18.6 -9.9 -9.7
  Dec 04, 2024 265   @ Eastern Washington L 81-87 37%     2 - 5 -8.9 +12.6 -22.0
  Dec 07, 2024 297   Weber St. W 80-75 64%     3 - 5 -5.1 +5.7 -10.5
  Dec 11, 2024 125   @ Utah Valley L 57-80 15%     3 - 6 -18.4 -8.3 -11.4
  Dec 13, 2024 208   @ Texas San Antonio L 76-80 27%     3 - 7 -4.0 -1.2 -2.6
  Dec 15, 2024 208   Texas San Antonio L 85-95 45%     3 - 8 -15.1 +3.0 -17.5
  Dec 18, 2024 6   Alabama L 90-97 3%     3 - 9 +9.9 +15.5 -5.1
  Jan 02, 2025 187   Nebraska Omaha L 85-95 41%     3 - 10 0 - 1 -14.1 +4.0 -17.8
  Jan 04, 2025 126   St. Thomas L 80-88 29%     3 - 11 0 - 2 -8.8 -0.2 -8.3
  Jan 09, 2025 315   @ Denver W 95-70 50%     4 - 11 1 - 2 +18.4 +18.6 -0.5
  Jan 11, 2025 322   @ Oral Roberts L 79-83 52%     4 - 12 1 - 3 -10.9 +1.1 -12.0
  Jan 16, 2025 111   @ South Dakota St. L 73-109 13%     4 - 13 1 - 4 -30.2 -2.4 -25.7
  Jan 18, 2025 245   UMKC W 76-72 53%     5 - 13 2 - 4 -3.3 +9.2 -12.1
  Jan 23, 2025 243   South Dakota L 93-102 52%     5 - 14 2 - 5 -16.0 +0.5 -15.3
  Jan 25, 2025 136   @ North Dakota St. L 82-87 17%     5 - 15 2 - 6 -1.1 +5.3 -6.4
  Feb 01, 2025 111   South Dakota St. W 80-75 24%     6 - 15 3 - 6 +5.7 +10.8 -4.8
  Feb 06, 2025 187   @ Nebraska Omaha L 77-80 24%     6 - 16 3 - 7 -2.0 +7.1 -9.4
  Feb 08, 2025 245   @ UMKC L 69-80 34%     6 - 17 3 - 8 -13.2 +1.8 -15.9
  Feb 13, 2025 315   Denver L 64-68 69%     6 - 18 3 - 9 -15.7 -16.2 +0.7
  Feb 15, 2025 322   Oral Roberts W 88-77 70%     7 - 18 4 - 9 -1.0 +9.5 -10.1
  Feb 22, 2025 136   North Dakota St. L 77-82 33%    
  Feb 27, 2025 126   @ St. Thomas L 77-88 14%    
  Mar 01, 2025 243   @ South Dakota L 87-92 32%    
Projected Record 8 - 20 5 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Summit League Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 17.6 38.9 16.0 1.7 74.3 6th
7th 20.7 3.1 23.8 7th
8th 2.0 2.0 8th
9th 9th
Total 40.3 42.0 16.0 1.7 Total



Summit League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5
10-6
9-7
8-8
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5
10-6
9-7
8-8
7-9 1.7% 2.3% 2.3% 16.0 0.0 1.7
6-10 16.0% 2.2% 2.2% 16.0 0.4 15.7
5-11 42.0% 1.5% 1.5% 16.0 0.6 41.4
4-12 40.3% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.5 39.8
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 1.5% 1.5% 0.0% 16.0 1.5 98.5 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.3%
Lose Out 27.5%