North Dakota
Summit League
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-10.8#337
Expected Predictive Rating-11.1#319
Pace71.8#128
Improvement-1.8#302

Offense
Total Offense-6.7#342
First Shot-3.3#269
After Offensive Rebound-3.5#347
Layup/Dunks-0.3#184
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.1#178
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.4#227
Freethrows-1.5#274
Improvement-0.8#245

Defense
Total Defense-4.0#315
First Shot-1.7#230
After Offensive Rebounds-2.3#311
Layups/Dunks-2.8#287
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.7#62
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.3#199
Freethrows-0.3#207
Improvement-1.0#276
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.9% 1.0% 0.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.9% 1.1% 0.2%
.500 or above in Conference 13.4% 14.8% 9.4%
Conference Champion 0.5% 0.6% 0.3%
Last Place in Conference 35.0% 32.8% 41.5%
First Four0.8% 0.9% 0.7%
First Round0.5% 0.5% 0.4%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Western Illinois (Home) - 73.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 20 - 10 - 4
Quad 31 - 71 - 11
Quad 47 - 118 - 22


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 10 @Alabama L 62-91 1%     0 - 1 -7.3 -7.3 +1.5
  Thu, Nov 6 258 UC Riverside L 70-74 41%     0 - 2 -12.3 -8.6 -3.7
  Sun, Nov 9 261 Cal St. Northridge L 85-93 41%     0 - 3 -16.4 +2.0 -17.8
  Sat, Nov 15 258 @UC Riverside W 76-74 21%     1 - 3 -0.3 -3.4 +2.9
  Wed, Nov 19 43 @Creighton L 60-75 2%     1 - 4 -0.6 -1.8 -0.1
  Sat, Nov 22 235 Coastal Carolina L 58-75 27%     1 - 5 -21.3 -18.3 -2.0
  Sun, Nov 23 361 @Western Illinois W 78-69 53%     2 - 5 -2.5 -4.3 +1.4
  Fri, Nov 28 104 @Hawaii L 55-92 6%     2 - 6 -29.6 -16.2 -9.8
  Wed, Dec 3 173 @Idaho L 58-90 12%     2 - 7 -30.1 -15.7 -14.7
  Sat, Dec 6 206 Montana L 75-79 31%     2 - 8 -9.7 -1.0 -8.8
  Sat, Dec 13 361 Western Illinois W 73-66 74%    
  Thu, Dec 18 118 Winthrop L 73-84 15%    
  Sun, Dec 21 48 @Nebraska L 63-88 1%    
  Thu, Jan 1 301 Oral Roberts L 76-77 49%    
  Sat, Jan 3 153 South Dakota St. L 69-77 23%    
  Thu, Jan 8 233 @Nebraska Omaha L 70-80 19%    
  Sat, Jan 10 346 @UMKC L 72-74 44%    
  Thu, Jan 15 169 St. Thomas L 70-77 26%    
  Sat, Jan 17 270 South Dakota L 79-81 42%    
  Thu, Jan 22 301 @Oral Roberts L 74-80 29%    
  Sat, Jan 24 294 @Denver L 75-81 29%    
  Thu, Jan 29 169 @St. Thomas L 67-80 12%    
  Thu, Feb 5 233 Nebraska Omaha L 73-77 37%    
  Sat, Feb 7 294 Denver L 77-78 49%    
  Wed, Feb 11 270 @South Dakota L 76-84 23%    
  Sat, Feb 14 155 North Dakota St. L 68-76 25%    
  Thu, Feb 19 346 UMKC W 75-71 65%    
  Sat, Feb 21 153 @South Dakota St. L 66-80 11%    
  Sat, Feb 28 155 @North Dakota St. L 65-79 11%    
Projected Record 8 - 21 5 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Summit League Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.5 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.1 0.0 1.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 1.2 0.9 0.1 0.0 2.7 3rd
4th 0.0 0.7 2.6 1.7 0.3 0.0 5.4 4th
5th 0.1 1.3 4.0 3.0 0.5 0.0 8.9 5th
6th 0.2 2.1 6.1 4.5 0.7 0.0 13.6 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 3.3 8.3 5.8 1.1 0.0 18.9 7th
8th 0.1 1.6 6.0 10.1 6.1 1.1 0.0 25.0 8th
9th 0.9 4.2 7.6 7.1 3.4 0.6 0.0 23.7 9th
Total 0.9 4.2 9.2 13.5 17.0 17.1 14.3 10.4 6.7 3.7 1.8 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Summit League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
14-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0
13-3 89.7% 0.1    0.1 0.0 0.0
12-4 61.5% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0
11-5 20.2% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-6 4.1% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
9-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0
8-8 0.0%
Total 0.5% 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1 0.0% 0.0
14-2 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-3 0.1% 24.1% 24.1% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.1
12-4 0.3% 16.7% 16.7% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.2
11-5 0.8% 6.9% 6.9% 16.0 0.1 0.7
10-6 1.8% 4.7% 4.7% 16.0 0.1 1.7
9-7 3.7% 3.5% 3.5% 16.0 0.0 0.1 3.5
8-8 6.7% 2.5% 2.5% 16.0 0.2 6.6
7-9 10.4% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.1 10.3
6-10 14.3% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.2 14.2
5-11 17.1% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.1 17.1
4-12 17.0% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.1 16.9
3-13 13.5% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 13.5
2-14 9.2% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 9.2
1-15 4.2% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 4.2
0-16 0.9% 0.9
Total 100% 0.9% 0.9% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 0.9 99.1 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.2%