SE Louisiana
Southland
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-3.3#220
Expected Predictive Rating-1.5#194
Pace67.6#213
Improvement+1.1#139

Offense
Total Offense-3.2#257
First Shot-2.7#251
After Offensive Rebound-0.5#219
Layup/Dunks+0.4#162
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.4#27
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.6#292
Freethrows-2.9#339
Improvement+4.0#20

Defense
Total Defense-0.1#174
First Shot-2.4#255
After Offensive Rebounds+2.3#25
Layups/Dunks-1.3#224
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.4#66
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.4#255
Freethrows-1.1#268
Improvement-2.9#327
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 5.3% 5.9% 3.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.9 14.9 15.3
.500 or above 86.7% 90.9% 72.2%
.500 or above in Conference 94.2% 96.6% 85.8%
Conference Champion 0.9% 1.1% 0.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.4% 0.4% 0.4%
First Round5.1% 5.7% 3.0%
Second Round0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Incarnate Word (Home) - 77.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 21 - 4
Quad 32 - 43 - 8
Quad 414 - 517 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 10, 2024 98   @ UAB L 72-82 16%     0 - 1 -2.7 -2.1 -0.5
  Nov 12, 2024 25   @ Mississippi St. L 59-80 4%     0 - 2 -3.6 -8.2 +5.2
  Nov 18, 2024 346   @ Louisiana Monroe W 70-67 72%     1 - 2 -6.4 -5.9 -0.5
  Nov 22, 2024 174   @ Wyoming L 61-64 30%     1 - 3 -1.0 -9.2 +8.2
  Nov 26, 2024 243   Gardner-Webb L 69-73 54%     1 - 4 -8.4 -8.6 +0.3
  Nov 27, 2024 278   North Dakota W 76-60 62%     2 - 4 +9.5 +0.6 +9.9
  Dec 02, 2024 146   @ Tulane W 71-67 25%     3 - 4 +7.8 +3.8 +4.2
  Dec 05, 2024 212   @ Nicholls St. L 64-67 38%     3 - 5 0 - 1 -3.1 -12.7 +9.8
  Dec 11, 2024 306   @ Louisiana L 61-68 58%     3 - 6 -12.5 -12.9 +0.3
  Dec 16, 2024 326   @ Grambling St. W 75-65 65%     4 - 6 +2.6 +7.2 -3.7
  Dec 30, 2024 74   @ McNeese St. L 51-79 11%     4 - 7 0 - 2 -17.7 -14.5 -4.2
  Jan 04, 2025 183   TX A&M Corpus Christi L 71-80 51%     4 - 8 0 - 3 -12.5 -0.3 -12.7
  Jan 06, 2025 240   UT Rio Grande Valley W 79-75 64%     5 - 8 1 - 3 -3.0 +3.4 -6.4
  Jan 11, 2025 347   @ New Orleans W 91-71 72%     6 - 8 2 - 3 +10.6 +10.2 -0.3
  Jan 13, 2025 251   @ Stephen F. Austin W 66-59 47%     7 - 8 3 - 3 +4.5 +3.6 +1.5
  Jan 18, 2025 285   @ Northwestern St. W 65-64 54%     8 - 8 4 - 3 -3.4 +1.0 -4.2
  Jan 20, 2025 355   @ Texas A&M - Commerce W 76-68 77%     9 - 8 5 - 3 -2.9 -0.8 -2.2
  Jan 25, 2025 310   Incarnate Word W 75-67 78%    
  Jan 27, 2025 307   Houston Christian W 72-65 77%    
  Feb 01, 2025 347   New Orleans W 79-68 86%    
  Feb 03, 2025 222   Lamar W 69-66 61%    
  Feb 08, 2025 310   @ Incarnate Word W 72-70 57%    
  Feb 10, 2025 307   @ Houston Christian W 70-68 57%    
  Feb 15, 2025 212   Nicholls St. W 73-71 58%    
  Feb 17, 2025 74   McNeese St. L 64-72 22%    
  Feb 22, 2025 355   Texas A&M - Commerce W 75-62 89%    
  Feb 24, 2025 285   Northwestern St. W 70-64 73%    
  Mar 01, 2025 183   @ TX A&M Corpus Christi L 69-74 31%    
  Mar 03, 2025 240   @ UT Rio Grande Valley L 72-74 44%    
Projected Record 16 - 13 12 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southland Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.9 1st
2nd 0.0 1.3 6.5 10.6 6.9 2.2 0.2 27.7 2nd
3rd 0.9 7.8 11.3 5.0 0.8 0.0 25.8 3rd
4th 0.3 5.4 9.0 2.9 0.3 17.9 4th
5th 0.1 2.5 6.5 2.8 0.2 12.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.7 4.5 2.6 0.1 0.0 7.9 6th
7th 0.2 1.9 2.2 0.3 4.5 7th
8th 0.1 0.6 1.3 0.2 2.2 8th
9th 0.1 0.5 0.1 0.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 11th
12th 12th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.3 4.1 9.8 15.6 21.0 20.9 15.9 7.9 2.6 0.5 Total



Southland Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 56.3% 0.3    0.1 0.2
16-4 12.5% 0.3    0.1 0.2 0.0
15-5 3.1% 0.3    0.1 0.1 0.1
14-6 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.9% 0.9 0.3 0.5 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 0.5% 18.8% 18.8% 12.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4
16-4 2.6% 17.3% 17.3% 14.1 0.1 0.3 0.1 2.1
15-5 7.9% 14.2% 14.2% 14.6 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.1 6.8
14-6 15.9% 9.3% 9.3% 14.9 0.3 1.0 0.2 14.4
13-7 20.9% 5.7% 5.7% 15.3 0.1 0.6 0.5 19.7
12-8 21.0% 2.3% 2.3% 15.3 0.0 0.3 0.2 20.5
11-9 15.6% 1.9% 1.9% 15.4 0.2 0.1 15.4
10-10 9.8% 1.2% 1.2% 15.8 0.0 0.1 9.6
9-11 4.1% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.0 4.0
8-12 1.3% 1.3
7-13 0.3% 0.3
6-14 0.1% 0.1
5-15 0.0% 0.0
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 5.3% 5.3% 0.0% 14.9 0.0 0.2 1.1 2.8 1.2 94.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.2%