SE Louisiana
Southland
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-2.6#213
Expected Predictive Rating-0.9#176
Pace68.2#181
Improvement+3.3#49

Offense
Total Offense-1.8#224
First Shot-1.5#218
After Offensive Rebound-0.3#211
Layup/Dunks+0.9#147
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.6#24
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.1#281
Freethrows-2.9#333
Improvement+6.2#6

Defense
Total Defense-0.8#195
First Shot-3.2#278
After Offensive Rebounds+2.4#22
Layups/Dunks-1.7#245
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.4#66
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.7#264
Freethrows-1.2#269
Improvement-2.9#319
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 8.1% 8.7% 4.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.9 14.9 15.1
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
First Round8.0% 8.6% 4.7%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Texas A&M - Commerce (Home) - 86.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 33 - 43 - 8
Quad 415 - 518 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 10, 2024 104   @ UAB L 72-82 19%     0 - 1 -3.3 -3.9 +0.7
  Nov 12, 2024 28   @ Mississippi St. L 59-80 4%     0 - 2 -3.7 -7.4 +4.3
  Nov 18, 2024 336   @ Louisiana Monroe W 70-67 73%     1 - 2 -5.9 -5.4 -0.6
  Nov 22, 2024 166   @ Wyoming L 61-64 32%     1 - 3 -0.7 -8.1 +7.3
  Nov 26, 2024 257   Gardner-Webb L 69-73 60%     1 - 4 -9.3 -9.9 +0.8
  Nov 27, 2024 278   North Dakota W 76-60 65%     2 - 4 +9.5 +0.6 +9.9
  Dec 02, 2024 144   @ Tulane W 71-67 28%     3 - 4 +7.6 +3.7 +4.0
  Dec 05, 2024 192   @ Nicholls St. L 64-67 37%     3 - 5 0 - 1 -2.3 -11.8 +9.7
  Dec 11, 2024 289   @ Louisiana L 61-68 57%     3 - 6 -11.5 -11.4 -0.2
  Dec 16, 2024 327   @ Grambling St. W 75-65 68%     4 - 6 +2.4 +8.5 -5.1
  Dec 30, 2024 86   @ McNeese St. L 51-79 14%     4 - 7 0 - 2 -18.8 -15.7 -4.2
  Jan 04, 2025 199   TX A&M Corpus Christi L 71-80 58%     4 - 8 0 - 3 -13.7 +0.4 -14.6
  Jan 06, 2025 262   UT Rio Grande Valley W 79-75 70%     5 - 8 1 - 3 -4.0 +4.0 -7.9
  Jan 11, 2025 353   @ New Orleans W 91-71 78%     6 - 8 2 - 3 +9.4 +9.4 -0.7
  Jan 13, 2025 249   @ Stephen F. Austin W 66-59 49%     7 - 8 3 - 3 +4.7 +2.5 +2.8
  Jan 18, 2025 272   @ Northwestern St. W 65-64 54%     8 - 8 4 - 3 -2.8 +2.9 -5.5
  Jan 20, 2025 339   @ Texas A&M - Commerce W 76-68 73%     9 - 8 5 - 3 -1.0 +0.2 -1.2
  Jan 25, 2025 281   Incarnate Word W 86-63 74%     10 - 8 6 - 3 +13.8 +6.8 +7.0
  Jan 27, 2025 295   Houston Christian L 62-70 76%     10 - 9 6 - 4 -18.0 -9.0 -9.9
  Feb 01, 2025 353   New Orleans W 76-68 89%     11 - 9 7 - 4 -7.7 -9.8 +1.6
  Feb 03, 2025 194   Lamar W 81-79 57%     12 - 9 8 - 4 -2.4 +10.4 -12.8
  Feb 08, 2025 281   @ Incarnate Word W 71-66 56%     13 - 9 9 - 4 +0.9 -2.2 +3.3
  Feb 10, 2025 295   @ Houston Christian W 69-60 59%     14 - 9 10 - 4 +4.1 +3.5 +1.9
  Feb 15, 2025 192   Nicholls St. W 84-81 OT 57%     15 - 9 11 - 4 -1.4 +4.1 -5.7
  Feb 17, 2025 86   McNeese St. L 82-88 26%     15 - 10 11 - 5 -1.9 +16.6 -18.9
  Feb 22, 2025 339   Texas A&M - Commerce W 75-64 87%    
  Feb 24, 2025 272   Northwestern St. W 71-65 73%    
  Mar 01, 2025 199   @ TX A&M Corpus Christi L 71-74 37%    
  Mar 03, 2025 262   @ UT Rio Grande Valley W 75-74 49%    
Projected Record 17 - 12 13 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southland Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.1 7.7 23.8 12.0 43.5 2nd
3rd 4.1 25.1 12.6 0.9 42.6 3rd
4th 0.3 8.4 2.8 11.6 4th
5th 1.1 1.1 2.2 5th
6th 0.1 0.1 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 1.5 13.6 35.6 36.4 12.9 Total



Southland Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 0.0%
14-6 0.0%
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 12.9% 15.5% 15.5% 14.3 0.0 0.2 1.0 0.8 0.0 10.9
14-6 36.4% 9.7% 9.7% 14.9 0.0 0.7 2.5 0.4 32.8
13-7 35.6% 6.2% 6.2% 15.2 0.1 1.4 0.7 33.4
12-8 13.6% 3.1% 3.1% 15.4 0.0 0.2 0.2 13.2
11-9 1.5% 0.6% 0.6% 15.0 0.0 1.5
10-10
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 8.1% 8.1% 0.0% 14.9 0.0 0.2 1.8 4.8 1.3 91.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 2.0% 100.0% 14.3 0.5 10.6 49.7 38.7 0.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 4.8%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 5.3%
Lose Out 0.8%