UT Rio Grande Valley
Southland
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-5.5#262
Expected Predictive Rating-5.8#265
Pace73.9#49
Improvement-4.7#337

Offense
Total Offense-2.9#253
First Shot-2.3#243
After Offensive Rebound-0.7#231
Layup/Dunks+1.0#145
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.0#296
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.8#117
Freethrows-3.0#340
Improvement-5.0#354

Defense
Total Defense-2.5#245
First Shot-1.7#227
After Offensive Rebounds-0.9#265
Layups/Dunks-4.5#330
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.9#269
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.3#13
Freethrows-1.6#288
Improvement+0.3#178
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.1% 0.3% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.9 14.8 16.0
.500 or above 2.3% 7.8% 0.2%
.500 or above in Conference 1.3% 4.7% 0.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.1% 0.3% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Nicholls St. (Away) - 26.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 4
Quad 20 - 10 - 5
Quad 31 - 51 - 10
Quad 411 - 612 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 48   @ Nebraska L 67-87 5%     0 - 1 -6.4 -4.6 -0.1
  Nov 06, 2024 31   @ Creighton L 86-99 3%     0 - 2 +4.0 +14.4 -9.2
  Nov 15, 2024 285   Charleston Southern W 86-76 56%     1 - 2 +3.1 +1.1 +0.9
  Nov 16, 2024 308   Tennessee Tech W 83-58 61%     2 - 2 +16.6 +9.1 +8.4
  Nov 18, 2024 7   @ Wisconsin L 84-87 2%     2 - 3 +18.3 +19.1 -0.8
  Nov 25, 2024 357   Le Moyne W 97-77 85%     3 - 3 +3.6 +7.0 -4.7
  Dec 05, 2024 249   Stephen F. Austin W 68-65 58%     4 - 3 1 - 0 -4.4 -4.7 +0.2
  Dec 07, 2024 194   Lamar L 52-84 46%     4 - 4 1 - 1 -36.4 -18.7 -19.2
  Dec 18, 2024 282   Southern Utah W 78-73 64%     5 - 4 -4.2 -1.6 -2.9
  Jan 04, 2025 353   @ New Orleans W 76-64 69%     6 - 4 2 - 1 +1.4 +2.8 -0.5
  Jan 06, 2025 213   @ SE Louisiana L 75-79 30%     6 - 5 2 - 2 -4.1 +4.2 -8.4
  Jan 11, 2025 199   @ TX A&M Corpus Christi L 74-79 28%     6 - 6 2 - 3 -4.6 +9.3 -14.4
  Jan 13, 2025 339   Texas A&M - Commerce W 57-55 79%     7 - 6 3 - 3 -12.0 -12.6 +0.8
  Jan 18, 2025 295   @ Houston Christian L 57-66 48%     7 - 7 3 - 4 -13.9 -19.4 +5.6
  Jan 20, 2025 281   @ Incarnate Word W 85-78 45%     8 - 7 4 - 4 +2.9 +12.7 -9.4
  Jan 25, 2025 86   McNeese St. L 63-93 18%     8 - 8 4 - 5 -25.9 -5.4 -21.8
  Jan 27, 2025 192   Nicholls St. L 75-82 46%     8 - 9 4 - 6 -11.4 -0.6 -10.8
  Feb 01, 2025 199   TX A&M Corpus Christi W 83-73 47%     9 - 9 5 - 6 +5.3 +1.9 +2.6
  Feb 03, 2025 272   @ Northwestern St. L 63-79 43%     9 - 10 5 - 7 -19.8 -14.8 -3.8
  Feb 08, 2025 194   @ Lamar L 68-70 28%     9 - 11 5 - 8 -1.3 +0.7 -2.1
  Feb 10, 2025 249   @ Stephen F. Austin L 75-85 38%     9 - 12 5 - 9 -12.3 +1.1 -12.8
  Feb 15, 2025 295   Houston Christian W 76-52 67%     10 - 12 6 - 9 +14.0 +2.8 +12.8
  Feb 17, 2025 281   Incarnate Word L 60-66 64%     10 - 13 6 - 10 -15.2 -15.1 -0.5
  Feb 22, 2025 192   @ Nicholls St. L 73-79 27%    
  Feb 24, 2025 86   @ McNeese St. L 65-80 8%    
  Mar 01, 2025 353   New Orleans W 83-73 84%    
  Mar 03, 2025 213   SE Louisiana L 74-75 51%    
Projected Record 12 - 15 8 - 12




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southland Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 0.1 0.1 5th
6th 0.7 0.6 1.2 6th
7th 0.9 6.3 0.6 7.8 7th
8th 0.5 14.5 6.8 0.1 21.9 8th
9th 0.4 13.9 22.7 1.0 37.9 9th
10th 5.4 21.6 4.2 31.1 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 5.7 35.9 42.3 14.8 1.3 Total



Southland Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10 1.3% 3.9% 3.9% 14.4 0.0 0.0 1.2
9-11 14.8% 0.2% 0.2% 15.3 0.0 0.0 14.7
8-12 42.3% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 42.3
7-13 35.9% 35.9
6-14 5.7% 5.7
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 14.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.3%
Lose Out 5.7%