UT Rio Grande Valley
Southland
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-0.5#173
Expected Predictive Rating+2.4#130
Pace76.5#29
Improvement+2.6#28

Offense
Total Offense+2.2#117
First Shot+1.3#140
After Offensive Rebound+0.8#131
Layup/Dunks+2.0#112
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.6#201
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.8#71
Freethrows-4.0#342
Improvement+1.6#62

Defense
Total Defense-2.6#264
First Shot-2.5#253
After Offensive Rebounds-0.2#204
Layups/Dunks-2.2#257
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.2#313
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.6#59
Freethrows-1.6#282
Improvement+1.0#89
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 12.1% 14.4% 7.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.8 13.7 14.1
.500 or above 86.7% 92.0% 77.0%
.500 or above in Conference 88.5% 93.3% 79.9%
Conference Champion 11.5% 15.3% 4.6%
Last Place in Conference 0.3% 0.1% 0.7%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.2%
First Round12.0% 14.3% 7.8%
Second Round1.0% 1.3% 0.5%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Stephen F. Austin (Home) - 64.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 20 - 10 - 4
Quad 32 - 33 - 8
Quad 415 - 418 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 46   @ Nebraska L 67-87 10%     0 - 1 -6.1 -3.6 -0.7
  Nov 06, 2024 50   @ Creighton L 86-99 11%     0 - 2 +0.2 +12.1 -10.8
  Nov 15, 2024 311   Charleston Southern W 86-76 76%     1 - 2 +2.3 +0.5 +0.6
  Nov 16, 2024 318   Tennessee Tech W 83-58 79%     2 - 2 +16.1 +8.4 +8.6
  Nov 18, 2024 26   @ Wisconsin L 84-87 7%     2 - 3 +13.1 +17.5 -4.4
  Nov 25, 2024 329   Le Moyne W 97-77 87%     3 - 3 +7.4 +11.9 -6.0
  Dec 05, 2024 196   Stephen F. Austin W 73-69 64%    
  Dec 07, 2024 299   Lamar W 84-74 81%    
  Dec 18, 2024 201   Southern Utah W 84-80 65%    
  Jan 04, 2025 345   @ New Orleans W 87-78 79%    
  Jan 06, 2025 232   @ SE Louisiana W 76-75 50%    
  Jan 11, 2025 188   @ TX A&M Corpus Christi L 81-83 42%    
  Jan 13, 2025 354   Texas A&M - Commerce W 83-67 92%    
  Jan 18, 2025 351   @ Houston Christian W 81-72 80%    
  Jan 20, 2025 312   @ Incarnate Word W 84-80 65%    
  Jan 25, 2025 79   McNeese St. L 74-78 36%    
  Jan 27, 2025 223   Nicholls St. W 80-74 70%    
  Feb 01, 2025 188   TX A&M Corpus Christi W 84-80 63%    
  Feb 03, 2025 310   @ Northwestern St. W 78-74 65%    
  Feb 08, 2025 299   @ Lamar W 81-77 63%    
  Feb 10, 2025 196   @ Stephen F. Austin L 70-72 44%    
  Feb 15, 2025 351   Houston Christian W 84-69 91%    
  Feb 17, 2025 312   Incarnate Word W 87-77 82%    
  Feb 22, 2025 223   @ Nicholls St. L 76-77 49%    
  Feb 24, 2025 79   @ McNeese St. L 71-81 19%    
  Mar 01, 2025 345   New Orleans W 90-75 90%    
  Mar 03, 2025 232   SE Louisiana W 78-72 71%    
Projected Record 17 - 10 13 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southland Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 1.4 2.7 3.4 2.5 0.9 0.3 11.5 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 1.9 5.9 8.0 5.6 2.4 0.3 24.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 2.5 6.2 6.3 2.7 0.4 0.0 18.6 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 2.6 5.5 4.9 1.4 0.1 14.8 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 2.0 4.7 3.0 0.9 0.0 10.9 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 1.3 3.3 2.4 0.5 0.0 7.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.9 2.4 1.9 0.3 0.0 5.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.5 1.4 1.0 0.2 0.0 3.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.9 0.7 0.1 0.0 2.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.9 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.5 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 12th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.8 3.1 5.1 7.7 10.5 11.9 13.8 13.9 12.2 8.7 5.8 2.8 0.9 0.3 Total



Southland Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.3    0.3
19-1 100.0% 0.9    0.9 0.1
18-2 89.0% 2.5    2.0 0.6
17-3 58.6% 3.4    2.0 1.2 0.1
16-4 30.8% 2.7    1.1 1.3 0.3 0.0
15-5 11.7% 1.4    0.3 0.6 0.4 0.1
14-6 2.1% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 11.5% 11.5 6.6 3.9 0.9 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.3% 45.7% 44.9% 0.8% 11.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 1.4%
19-1 0.9% 37.1% 37.1% 12.1 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.6
18-2 2.8% 37.3% 37.3% 12.6 0.0 0.5 0.5 0.1 0.0 1.8
17-3 5.8% 33.1% 33.1% 13.1 0.0 0.4 1.0 0.5 0.0 3.9
16-4 8.7% 26.3% 26.3% 13.6 0.1 0.8 1.1 0.2 6.4
15-5 12.2% 18.4% 18.4% 13.9 0.0 0.6 1.1 0.4 0.0 10.0
14-6 13.9% 13.6% 13.6% 14.3 0.0 0.2 0.9 0.7 0.1 12.0
13-7 13.8% 8.1% 8.1% 14.6 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.1 12.7
12-8 11.9% 4.4% 4.4% 15.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 11.4
11-9 10.5% 3.2% 3.2% 15.3 0.0 0.2 0.1 10.2
10-10 7.7% 2.3% 2.3% 15.6 0.1 0.1 7.5
9-11 5.1% 1.1% 1.1% 15.7 0.0 0.0 5.0
8-12 3.1% 0.1% 0.1% 15.5 0.0 0.0 3.1
7-13 1.8% 1.8
6-14 0.8% 0.8
5-15 0.4% 0.4
4-16 0.2% 0.2
3-17 0.1% 0.1
2-18 0.0% 0.0
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20
Total 100% 12.1% 12.1% 0.0% 13.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.3 3.3 4.2 2.6 0.6 87.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 11.3 2.2 17.8 24.4 55.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.0% 5.0% 12.0 5.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1%