IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
UT Rio Grande Valley
Southland
2024-25

Overall
Predictive Rating	-6.0	#284
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	76.5	#26
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	-2.1	#248

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	-3.9	#309

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	3.9%	8.2%	3.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Average Seed	14.8	14.2	14.9

.500 or above	40.9%	72.9%	39.5%
.500 or above in Conference	56.9%	76.3%	56.1%
Conference Champion	3.2%	7.4%	3.1%
Last Place in Conference	3.8%	1.2%	4.0%

First Four	0.6%	0.4%	0.6%
First Round	3.6%	8.0%	3.4%
Second Round	0.2%	0.8%	0.2%
Sweet Sixteen	0.0%	0.2%	0.0%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Nebraska (Away) - 4.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 2	0 - 2
Quad 1b	0 - 1	0 - 3
Quad 2	0 - 2	0 - 5
Quad 3	1 - 4	2 - 8
Quad 4	11 - 6	12 - 15

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 04, 2024	51	@ Nebraska	L	69-87	4%
Nov 06, 2024	13	@ Creighton	L	65-88	1%
Nov 15, 2024	280	Charleston Southern	L	75-76	49%
Nov 18, 2024	44	@ Wisconsin	L	64-83	4%
Nov 25, 2024	335	Le Moyne	W	79-71	75%
Dec 05, 2024	164	Stephen F. Austin	L	76-79	39%
Dec 07, 2024	283	Lamar	W	79-76	60%
Dec 18, 2024	218	Southern Utah	L	79-80	49%
Jan 04, 2025	346	@ New Orleans	W	83-80	60%
Jan 06, 2025	292	@ SE Louisiana	L	72-74	42%
Jan 11, 2025	219	@ TX A&M Corpus Christi	L	73-79	30%
Jan 13, 2025	355	Texas A&M - Commerce	W	79-68	82%
Jan 18, 2025	357	@ Houston Christian	W	84-79	67%
Jan 20, 2025	329	@ Incarnate Word	W	80-79	53%
Jan 25, 2025	99	McNeese St.	L	71-79	24%
Jan 27, 2025	215	Nicholls St.	L	75-76	49%
Feb 01, 2025	219	TX A&M Corpus Christi	L	76-77	50%
Feb 03, 2025	333	@ Northwestern St.	W	77-75	55%
Feb 08, 2025	283	@ Lamar	L	76-79	41%
Feb 10, 2025	164	@ Stephen F. Austin	L	73-82	23%
Feb 15, 2025	357	Houston Christian	W	87-76	82%
Feb 17, 2025	329	Incarnate Word	W	83-76	71%
Feb 22, 2025	215	@ Nicholls St.	L	72-78	31%
Feb 24, 2025	99	@ McNeese St.	L	68-82	12%
Mar 01, 2025	346	New Orleans	W	86-77	77%
Mar 03, 2025	292	SE Louisiana	W	75-71	62%
Projected Record						12 - 14	10 - 10

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Southland Finish

	0-20	1-19	2-18	3-17	4-16	5-15	6-14	7-13	8-12	9-11	10-10	11-9	12-8	13-7	14-6	15-5	16-4	17-3	18-2	19-1	20-0		Total
1st														0.0	0.1	0.5	0.9	0.9	0.6	0.2	0.0		3.2	1st
2nd												0.0	0.1	0.7	2.0	2.6	1.7	0.7	0.1				7.9	2nd
3rd											0.0	0.2	1.6	3.5	3.2	1.5	0.3	0.0					10.3	3rd
4th										0.0	0.4	2.3	4.6	3.4	1.0	0.1	0.0						11.8	4th
5th									0.0	0.5	2.9	5.0	3.2	0.7	0.0								12.5	5th
6th								0.0	0.5	3.0	4.9	2.9	0.5	0.0									11.9	6th
7th							0.0	0.6	3.1	4.5	2.6	0.5	0.0										11.3	7th
8th						0.0	0.6	2.8	4.1	2.1	0.3	0.0											10.1	8th
9th					0.1	0.7	2.4	3.5	1.6	0.2	0.0												8.5	9th
10th				0.1	0.8	2.1	2.3	1.0	0.1	0.0													6.4	10th
11th		0.0	0.1	0.7	1.3	1.3	0.5	0.1															4.1	11th
12th	0.0	0.2	0.5	0.7	0.5	0.2	0.0																2.1	12th

Total	0.0	0.2	0.6	1.5	2.6	4.3	5.9	8.1	9.4	10.4	11.2	11.0	10.1	8.4	6.3	4.6	2.9	1.6	0.7	0.2	0.0			Total

Southland Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
20-0	100.0%	0.0		0.0
19-1	100.0%	0.2		0.2	0.0
18-2	87.4%	0.6		0.5	0.1
17-3	57.2%	0.9		0.6	0.3	0.0
16-4	29.8%	0.9		0.3	0.4	0.1	0.0
15-5	10.4%	0.5		0.1	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.0
14-6	1.8%	0.1		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
13-7	0.2%	0.0			0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
12-8	0.0%
11-9	0.0%
10-10	0.0%

Total	3.2%	3.2		1.7	1.1	0.3	0.0	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
20-0	0.0%		51.4%	51.4%		11.9											0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0				0.0
19-1	0.2%		36.8%	36.8%		13.1													0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0		0.1
18-2	0.7%		39.7%	39.7%		13.5												0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.4
17-3	1.6%		28.4%	28.4%		14.0													0.0	0.1	0.2	0.1	0.0	1.1
16-4	2.9%		22.2%	22.2%		14.5													0.0	0.1	0.2	0.2	0.1	2.2
15-5	4.6%		16.0%	16.0%		14.8													0.0	0.0	0.2	0.4	0.1	3.9
14-6	6.3%		10.0%	10.0%		15.3														0.0	0.1	0.2	0.3	5.7
13-7	8.4%		5.5%	5.5%		15.5														0.0	0.0	0.2	0.3	7.9
12-8	10.1%		3.1%	3.1%		15.6															0.0	0.1	0.2	9.7
11-9	11.0%		1.6%	1.6%		15.8																0.0	0.1	10.8
10-10	11.2%		0.8%	0.8%		15.9																0.0	0.1	11.1
9-11	10.4%		0.5%	0.5%		16.0																	0.1	10.4
8-12	9.4%		0.2%	0.2%		16.0																	0.0	9.4
7-13	8.1%																							8.1
6-14	5.9%																							5.9
5-15	4.3%																							4.3
4-16	2.6%																							2.6
3-17	1.5%																							1.5
2-18	0.6%																							0.6
1-19	0.2%																							0.2
0-20	0.0%																							0.0

Total	100%		3.9%	3.9%	0.0%	14.8											0.0	0.0	0.1	0.4	0.9	1.3	1.3	96.1		0.0%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Lose Out	0.0%