Preseason Rankings
Colorado St.
Mountain West
2025-26
Overall
Predictive Rating+5.3#94
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace65.1#267
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+2.7#100
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+2.6#101
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.2% 0.3% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.6% 0.7% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 8.9% 9.8% 3.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 3.4% 3.9% 0.8%
Average Seed 9.9 9.9 10.8
.500 or above 72.1% 76.2% 47.2%
.500 or above in Conference 62.3% 65.2% 45.2%
Conference Champion 6.0% 6.6% 2.2%
Last Place in Conference 2.4% 2.0% 4.9%
First Four1.6% 1.8% 0.5%
First Round8.0% 8.8% 3.1%
Second Round3.0% 3.4% 0.7%
Sweet Sixteen0.7% 0.8% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.2% 0.3% 0.0%
Final Four0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Incarnate Word (Home) - 85.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b1 - 21 - 4
Quad 23 - 54 - 8
Quad 36 - 310 - 12
Quad 48 - 117 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 03, 2025 209   Incarnate Word W 73-62 86%    
  Nov 09, 2025 182   Nebraska Omaha W 76-66 82%    
  Nov 12, 2025 256   Cal Poly W 85-72 89%    
  Nov 16, 2025 103   @ Loyola Chicago L 67-69 41%    
  Nov 21, 2025 321   Denver W 78-60 94%    
  Nov 26, 2025 76   Virginia Tech L 67-69 44%    
  Dec 06, 2025 82   Colorado W 70-68 56%    
  Dec 09, 2025 230   Dartmouth W 77-65 86%    
  Dec 20, 2025 54   @ Utah St. L 68-76 25%    
  Dec 30, 2025 98   Nevada W 66-63 61%    
  Jan 03, 2026 80   @ Grand Canyon L 70-75 35%    
  Jan 06, 2026 79   New Mexico W 74-73 54%    
  Jan 09, 2026 86   UNLV W 68-66 58%    
  Jan 13, 2026 198   @ Fresno St. W 76-71 65%    
  Jan 16, 2026 62   @ Boise St. L 64-71 28%    
  Jan 20, 2026 280   Air Force W 73-58 90%    
  Jan 23, 2026 54   Utah St. L 71-73 44%    
  Jan 28, 2026 38   @ San Diego St. L 61-72 18%    
  Jan 31, 2026 155   @ Wyoming W 67-65 58%    
  Feb 07, 2026 159   San Jose St. W 73-64 76%    
  Feb 10, 2026 280   @ Air Force W 70-61 78%    
  Feb 14, 2026 155   Wyoming W 70-62 75%    
  Feb 18, 2026 86   @ UNLV L 65-69 38%    
  Feb 21, 2026 38   San Diego St. L 64-69 35%    
  Feb 24, 2026 198   Fresno St. W 79-68 81%    
  Feb 28, 2026 159   @ San Jose St. W 70-67 59%    
  Mar 04, 2026 79   @ New Mexico L 71-76 35%    
  Mar 07, 2026 62   Boise St. L 67-68 47%    
Projected Record 16 - 12 11 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 1.1 1.7 1.6 0.9 0.4 0.1 6.0 1st
2nd 0.1 0.8 2.5 2.8 1.8 0.5 0.1 8.6 2nd
3rd 0.2 1.4 3.8 3.7 1.4 0.2 0.0 10.7 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 1.7 4.6 3.8 1.1 0.1 11.5 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 2.0 4.5 3.7 1.1 0.1 0.0 11.6 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 1.9 4.6 3.6 0.9 0.0 11.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 2.2 4.5 3.4 0.9 0.0 11.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 2.0 4.1 3.0 0.7 0.0 10.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.4 1.9 3.1 2.1 0.6 0.0 8.1 9th
10th 0.1 0.6 1.6 2.1 1.3 0.3 0.0 6.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.1 1.1 0.5 0.1 0.0 3.5 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.2 12th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 2.1 3.2 4.9 6.8 8.9 10.2 10.9 10.9 10.7 9.6 7.6 5.4 3.8 2.1 0.9 0.4 0.1 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
19-1 100.0% 0.4    0.4 0.0
18-2 91.3% 0.9    0.7 0.1
17-3 76.6% 1.6    1.1 0.4 0.0
16-4 45.9% 1.7    0.8 0.7 0.2 0.0
15-5 19.8% 1.1    0.3 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0
14-6 3.4% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
13-7 0.5% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 6.0% 6.0 3.5 1.8 0.6 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.1% 100.0% 65.1% 34.9% 4.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
19-1 0.4% 95.8% 43.2% 52.6% 5.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 92.6%
18-2 0.9% 84.7% 38.8% 45.8% 7.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.1 74.9%
17-3 2.1% 65.2% 28.8% 36.4% 9.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.7 51.1%
16-4 3.8% 45.5% 22.4% 23.0% 9.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.5 0.0 2.1 29.7%
15-5 5.4% 25.6% 16.0% 9.6% 10.4 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.7 0.0 4.0 11.4%
14-6 7.6% 15.1% 11.4% 3.7% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.8 0.1 6.5 4.2%
13-7 9.6% 8.2% 7.1% 1.1% 11.2 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.2 0.0 8.8 1.1%
12-8 10.7% 5.4% 4.9% 0.5% 11.3 0.0 0.4 0.2 0.0 10.2 0.5%
11-9 10.9% 3.1% 3.0% 0.1% 11.6 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 10.6 0.1%
10-10 10.9% 1.9% 1.9% 0.0% 11.8 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 10.7 0.0%
9-11 10.2% 0.9% 0.9% 12.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 10.1
8-12 8.9% 0.6% 0.6% 13.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.9
7-13 6.8% 0.3% 0.3% 13.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.8
6-14 4.9% 4.9
5-15 3.2% 3.2
4-16 2.1% 2.1
3-17 1.0% 1.0
2-18 0.4% 0.4
1-19 0.1% 0.1
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 8.9% 5.7% 3.2% 9.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.9 2.1 3.3 0.9 0.1 0.0 0.0 91.1 3.4%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 3.0 28.5 56.9 0.3 14.2