Colorado St.
Mountain West
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+7.9#72
Expected Predictive Rating+8.4#76
Pace61.6#355
Improvement+0.4#162

Offense
Total Offense+9.0#21
First Shot+8.7#14
After Offensive Rebound+0.4#158
Layup/Dunks-2.2#255
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.0#287
3 Pt Jumpshots+11.2#1
Freethrows+1.7#88
Improvement-0.4#214

Defense
Total Defense-1.1#203
First Shot-3.5#293
After Offensive Rebounds+2.4#54
Layups/Dunks-0.8#205
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.5#246
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.9#332
Freethrows+2.7#41
Improvement+0.8#117
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.3% 0.3% 0.2%
NCAA Tourney Bid 16.7% 17.2% 9.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 5.7% 6.0% 2.1%
Average Seed 10.5 10.5 10.8
.500 or above 97.5% 97.8% 91.6%
.500 or above in Conference 87.0% 87.5% 79.2%
Conference Champion 15.4% 15.7% 9.5%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.1% 0.2%
First Four2.9% 3.0% 1.1%
First Round15.2% 15.6% 9.0%
Second Round4.9% 5.1% 2.2%
Sweet Sixteen1.0% 1.1% 0.3%
Elite Eight0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Final Four0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Dartmouth (Home) - 94.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b1 - 21 - 3
Quad 25 - 46 - 7
Quad 37 - 213 - 9
Quad 48 - 122 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 188 Incarnate Word W 98-64 88%     1 - 0 +29.2 +27.1 +4.4
  Sun, Nov 9 233 Nebraska Omaha W 97-74 91%     2 - 0 +15.8 +25.8 -8.4
  Wed, Nov 12 252 Cal Poly W 93-79 92%     3 - 0 +5.9 +9.8 -4.8
  Sun, Nov 16 260 @Loyola Chicago W 80-67 83%     4 - 0 +10.6 +17.7 -5.0
  Fri, Nov 21 294 Denver L 81-83 95%     4 - 1 -12.4 +11.2 -23.9
  Wed, Nov 26 67 Virginia Tech L 64-66 48%     4 - 2 +6.5 +2.8 +3.4
  Thu, Nov 27 91 Wichita St. W 76-70 58%     5 - 2 +11.8 +20.6 -7.7
  Fri, Nov 28 79 South Florida W 83-68 53%     6 - 2 +22.3 +15.3 +7.3
  Sat, Dec 6 63 Colorado W 91-86 59%     7 - 2 +10.7 +21.7 -10.8
  Tue, Dec 9 268 Dartmouth W 85-68 94%    
  Sat, Dec 20 51 @Utah St. L 72-78 30%    
  Tue, Dec 30 106 Nevada W 77-70 73%    
  Sat, Jan 3 99 @Grand Canyon L 72-73 49%    
  Tue, Jan 6 84 New Mexico W 80-76 66%    
  Fri, Jan 9 132 UNLV W 85-76 80%    
  Tue, Jan 13 183 @Fresno St. W 79-72 73%    
  Fri, Jan 16 52 @Boise St. L 68-73 31%    
  Tue, Jan 20 331 Air Force W 80-59 97%    
  Fri, Jan 23 51 Utah St. W 75-74 52%    
  Wed, Jan 28 56 @San Diego St. L 72-77 32%    
  Sat, Jan 31 107 @Wyoming W 75-74 53%    
  Sat, Feb 7 182 San Jose St. W 78-65 87%    
  Tue, Feb 10 331 @Air Force W 77-62 92%    
  Sat, Feb 14 107 Wyoming W 78-71 73%    
  Wed, Feb 18 132 @UNLV W 82-79 61%    
  Sat, Feb 21 56 San Diego St. W 75-74 53%    
  Tue, Feb 24 183 Fresno St. W 82-69 87%    
  Sat, Feb 28 182 @San Jose St. W 75-68 72%    
  Wed, Mar 4 84 @New Mexico L 77-79 44%    
  Sat, Mar 7 52 Boise St. W 71-70 52%    
Projected Record 21 - 9 13 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.1 3.5 4.7 3.5 1.8 0.5 0.1 15.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 2.0 5.4 5.8 2.3 0.4 0.0 16.2 2nd
3rd 0.2 2.2 6.5 5.3 1.6 0.2 0.0 15.9 3rd
4th 0.1 1.8 6.2 5.0 1.3 0.1 14.4 4th
5th 0.1 1.4 5.0 4.5 0.9 0.0 11.9 5th
6th 0.0 0.9 3.7 3.8 1.0 0.0 9.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.6 2.3 3.0 0.9 0.1 6.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 1.6 2.2 0.7 0.1 4.9 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 1.1 1.1 0.6 0.0 3.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.2 0.0 1.5 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.5 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 12th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 2.1 3.6 5.9 8.9 11.8 14.1 14.6 13.1 11.0 7.2 3.9 1.8 0.5 0.1 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
19-1 100.0% 0.5    0.5 0.0
18-2 98.2% 1.8    1.7 0.1
17-3 88.6% 3.5    2.7 0.8 0.0
16-4 65.3% 4.7    2.6 1.8 0.3 0.0
15-5 31.5% 3.5    1.1 1.6 0.7 0.1 0.0
14-6 8.6% 1.1    0.1 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.0
13-7 0.9% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 15.4% 15.4 8.9 4.7 1.5 0.3 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.1% 100.0% 40.7% 59.3% 5.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
19-1 0.5% 91.3% 36.3% 55.0% 7.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 86.3%
18-2 1.8% 78.7% 34.5% 44.2% 8.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.4 67.5%
17-3 3.9% 62.0% 28.3% 33.7% 9.9 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.9 0.8 0.0 1.5 47.0%
16-4 7.2% 39.7% 23.7% 16.0% 10.5 0.0 0.1 0.2 1.0 1.6 0.1 4.4 21.0%
15-5 11.0% 27.2% 19.5% 7.6% 10.8 0.0 0.1 0.6 2.2 0.2 8.0 9.5%
14-6 13.1% 19.0% 16.0% 3.0% 11.0 0.0 0.2 2.0 0.3 0.0 10.6 3.6%
13-7 14.6% 11.7% 10.7% 1.0% 11.2 0.0 0.1 1.2 0.4 12.9 1.1%
12-8 14.1% 8.1% 7.7% 0.3% 11.4 0.0 0.7 0.5 0.0 13.0 0.4%
11-9 11.8% 5.4% 5.4% 0.1% 11.5 0.3 0.3 0.0 11.1 0.1%
10-10 8.9% 3.2% 3.2% 11.8 0.1 0.2 0.0 8.6
9-11 5.9% 2.1% 2.1% 11.9 0.0 0.1 0.0 5.8
8-12 3.6% 1.3% 1.3% 12.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.5
7-13 2.1% 0.6% 0.6% 13.5 0.0 0.0 2.0
6-14 0.9% 0.9
5-15 0.4% 0.4
4-16 0.1% 0.1
3-17 0.0% 0.0
2-18 0.0% 0.0
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 16.7% 11.7% 5.1% 10.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 1.2 3.1 8.9 2.0 0.1 0.0 83.3 5.7%