Colorado St.
Mountain West
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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All team stats adjusted for opponents. See methodology page for details.

Predictive Rating +6.1 92
Results Rating +7.3 85
Consistency 0.18 322
Pace 59.9 361
Improvement -2.0 257

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense B 53 A- B- D+ B C+
Defense C 189 C C D+ B- B-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% 265 B+ 65% 49 +0.8 149
2 Pt. Jumpers 25% 313 C 37% 196 -2.0 280
Three Pointers 49% 32 A 41% 5 +9.0 7
Shot Selection/Accuracy C+ +0.5 117 A- +7.0 16
1st FG Attempt A- 1.18 17
Second Chance C+ 32.0% 127 B- 1.10 87 B- 0.35 84
Opponents' Steals C- 10.2% 264
Other Turnovers C- 7.7% 248
Turnovers D+ 17.9% 267
Freethrows B- 0.33 98 B+ 77% 24 B 0.26 53
Total Offense B +6.6 53

Assists Opponents' Blocks
Close Shots B 56% 71 B 8.4% 45
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C+ 28% 133 D 7.1% 308
Three Pointers B 89% 68 C 0.9% 198
Total A- 66% 22 B 4.6% 63


Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 32% 328 C- 59% 209 -3.4 71
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% 113 D+ 41% 274 +1.2 288
Three Pointers 45% 52 C+ 33% 148 +1.9 277
Shot Selection/Accuracy B- -0.7 70 C +0.4 196
1st FG Attempt C 1.02 166
Second Chance B- 27.2% 68 D- 1.14 324 C 0.31 186
Turnovers from Steals D+ 8.5% 253
Other Turnovers C- 7.0% 226
Turnovers D+ 15.5% 256
Freethrows C+ 0.28 127 B+ 69% 26 B- 0.20 87
Total Defense C -0.4 189

Assists Blocks
Close Shots B- 45% 103 D+ 8.0% 300
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots B+ 16% 25 D+ 2.9% 300
Three Pointers B+ 77% 26 D+ 0.4% 294
Total B 50% 67 D- 3.4% 336

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 19.0 334 18.1 296
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.17 180 0.14 63
Consistency 0.15 334 0.14 288
Improvement -3.9 338 +1.9 87

NCAA Tournament Selection
At-Large Selection Status Out of Consideration
Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Prediction Ranges
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 100 90 78
Results Rating Rank 100 83 69
Conference Record 10 - 10 11 - 9 12 - 8
Conference Finish 8 7 5
NCAA Tourney Seed None None None
NCAA Tourney Finish None None None

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2% 4% 2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 11.3 11.1 11.4
.500 or above 100% 100% 100%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round2% 4% 2%
Second Round0% 1% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%
Next Game: New Mexico (Away) - 22.7% chance of victory

Projected Record by Quadrant
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b1 - 31 - 5
Quad 26 - 57 - 10
Quad 34 - 111 - 11
Quad 49 - 120 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 265 Incarnate Word W 98 - 64 91% +18  99% 1 - 0 A+ +25 A+ +22 A+ A+ C+ B +5 B A+ F
 Sun, Nov 9 253 Nebraska Omaha W 97 - 74 90% +8  89% 2 - 0 A- +15 A+ +23 A A+ D- D- -7 D+ C+ F
 Wed, Nov 12 227 Cal Poly W 93 - 79 88% +9  95% 3 - 0 B- +7 B +7 A- C- C+ C -1 D+ A D-
 Sun, Nov 16 279 @Loyola Chicago W 80 - 67 82% +12  89% 4 - 0 B +9 A+ +17 A- A+ D D -5 F B- B
 Fri, Nov 21 245 Denver L 81 - 83 90% -2  25% 4 - 1 D -10 B+ +9 B A+ F F -19 F C F
 Wed, Nov 26 56 Virginia Tech L 64 - 66 35% -3  22% 4 - 2 B- +8 C +1 D+ A- C+ B+ +7 C A+ D
 Thu, Nov 27 91 Wichita St. W 76 - 70 50% +10  98% 5 - 2 B+ +12 A+ +19 A+ D- C- D -6 A+ F C-
 Fri, Nov 28 54 South Florida W 83 - 68 34% +8  83% 6 - 2 A+ +25 A +14 A+ C D A+ +11 A+ B+ D
 Sat, Dec 6 67 Colorado W 91 - 86 51% +4  75% 7 - 2 B +11 A+ +21 A+ D+ C F+ -9 F C+ F
 Tue, Dec 9 267 Dartmouth W 76 - 55 91% +9  89% 8 - 2 B+ +12 B- +5 A+ F F A +10 B- B- A
 Sat, Dec 20 41 @Utah St. L 58 - 100 18% -24  0% 8 - 3 0 - 1 F -26 D -6 D- C D- F -24 F F C+
 Tue, Dec 30 81 Nevada L 62 - 75 57% -4  13% 8 - 4 0 - 2 D -9 D -6 D- A- B- D+ -4 A+ F C-
 Sat, Jan 3 62 @Grand Canyon W 70 - 60 28% +10  95% 9 - 4 1 - 2 A +22 A +12 A- C+ D- A +11 A+ C- C-
 Tue, Jan 6 50 New Mexico L 70 - 80 42% -7  2% 9 - 5 1 - 3 C- -2 B- +4 B A+ D D -6 D F C+
 Fri, Jan 9 102 UNLV W 70 - 62 68% +0  35% 10 - 5 2 - 3 B +9 C- -1 C- A+ F A +11 A+ D+ A+
 Tue, Jan 13 129 @Fresno St. L 69 - 79 55% -7  3% 10 - 6 2 - 4 D+ -5 B +6 A- F+ C+ F -12 C D- F
 Fri, Jan 16 60 @Boise St. L 73 - 79 27% -6  1% 10 - 7 2 - 5 B- +6 A +12 A+ F F D -6 C- F B
 Tue, Jan 20 344 Air Force W 81 - 52 97% +17  97% 11 - 7 3 - 5 B+ +13 B- +5 B+ D A+ A +10 A+ A+ C
 Fri, Jan 23 41 Utah St. L 61 - 65 35% +4  76% 11 - 8 3 - 6 B- +6 D+ -4 A A+ F A +9 B A+ B-
 Wed, Jan 28 48 @San Diego St. L 50 - 73 21% -10  10% 11 - 9 3 - 7 D -9 F+ -8 F+ C+ F D+ -4 D- D B+
 Sat, Jan 31 101 @Wyoming L 57 - 68 44% -8  0% 11 - 10 3 - 8 C- -3 D -4 D D B- C -1 F+ A C+
 Sat, Feb 7 224 San Jose St. W 65 - 57 88% +3  81% 12 - 10 4 - 8 C +1 F -12 F B- B A+ +14 A+ A+ F
 Tue, Feb 10 344 @Air Force W 91 - 74 92% +8  73% 13 - 10 5 - 8 B- +7 A+ +19 A+ F B F -11 F A+ D+
 Sat, Feb 14 101 Wyoming W 79 - 68 66% 14 - 10 6 - 8 B+ +13
 Wed, Feb 18 102 @UNLV W 91 - 86 45% +6  89% 15 - 10 7 - 8 B+ +12 A+ +23 A+ B- A+ F -11 D- D F+
 Sat, Feb 21 48 San Diego St. W 83 - 74 41% +6  69% 16 - 10 8 - 8 A- +17 A+ +17 A A+ B C+ +1 A+ C B-
 Tue, Feb 24 129 Fresno St. W 74 - 70 75% -4  21% 17 - 10 9 - 8 C+ +3 B- +4 B- A B C -1 C- B- C+
 Sat, Feb 28 224 @San Jose St. W 85 - 73 74% +4  79% 18 - 10 10 - 8 B +11 A+ +15 A+ F C C- -2 D+ A- F
 Wed, Mar 4 50 @New Mexico L 71 - 79 23%
 Sat, Mar 7 60 Boise St. L 71 - 72 49%
Totals 19 - 11 11 - 9 +6 B +7 D+ A- C+ C +0 A B+ B



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings B B+ C A A- 36% 25% 49% C+ A- C+ B- B- D+ B- B+ B C C- D+ C+ C 32% 22% 45% B- C B- D- C D+ C+ B+ B-
1.18 65% 37% 41% +7 0 1.18 32% 1.1 .35 18% .33 77% .26 1.09 59% 41% 33% 0 -1 1.02 27% 1.1 .31 15% .28 69% .23
Nov
3		 Incarnate Word A+ A+ A A+ A+ 32% 18% 50% D A+ B+ A+ A+ C+ A+ A+ A+ B C- F A+ B 26% 28% 46% A- B A+ A+ A+ F F A+ C-
1.49 79% 50% 50% +21 0 1.43 38% 1.8 .67 15% .54 90% .49 0.98 57% 47% 24% -5 -2 0.89 17% 0.6 .10 8% .35 57% .20
Nov
9		 Nebraska Omaha A+ A- A+ B+ A 38% 4% 58% A- A A+ A+ A+ D- A+ A+ A+ D- D+ C+ D+ D 24% 15% 61% C D+ B D C+ F B C- B-
1.48 71% 100% 38% +11 +2 1.29 52% 1.4 .70 17% .61 85% .51 1.13 62% 38% 36% +3 0 1.07 22% 1.1 .24 11% .26 73% .19
Nov
12		 Cal Poly B B- F A+ A- 33% 5% 61% B A- F A+ C- C+ B- A+ A+ C B F F+ D- 31% 13% 56% B+ D+ A B A D- C+ A+ A-
1.24 63% 0% 43% +8 +2 1.21 19% 1.7 .31 15% .31 95% .30 1.05 53% 43% 39% +3 0 1.09 22% 0.9 .20 17% .29 61% .18
Nov
16		 Loyola Chicago A+ F+ A+ A+ A- 29% 16% 56% C A- A A- A+ D A A A+ D C- F F F 32% 8% 61% C F B- B- B- B F C F
1.33 46% 57% 44% +8 0 1.18 40% 1.3 .50 15% .37 84% .31 1.11 58% 67% 39% +7 +1 1.18 29% 0.9 .25 22% .47 68% .32
Nov
21		 Denver B+ D- F A+ B- 48% 6% 45% A- B A+ B A+ F A+ A+ A+ F D+ F F F 20% 40% 40% A+ F C C C F D C- D
1.35 53% 0% 50% +6 +3 1.19 48% 1.3 .60 18% .90 80% .71 1.38 60% 50% 45% +12 -4 1.18 30% 1.1 .33 7% .34 79% .27
Nov
26		 Virginia Tech C B D F D 49% 24% 27% B- D+ C+ A+ A- C+ F B F+ B+ D D- B- C+ 39% 15% 46% D C A+ A+ A+ D C+ F+ C-
1.03 63% 33% 15% -6 0 0.90 32% 1.3 .41 18% .16 75% .12 1.06 67% 43% 33% +4 +1 1.11 17% 0.8 .14 13% .30 81% .24
Nov
27		 Wichita St. A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ 30% 13% 57% A- A+ B F D- C- D- F F D C+ F A+ A+ 41% 18% 41% D A+ F F F C- B- A B+
1.30 71% 100% 46% +22 0 1.48 32% 0.6 .18 17% .23 55% .12 1.19 56% 50% 11% -13 0 0.77 54% 1.4 .76 14% .30 60% .18
Nov
28		 South Florida A C+ B+ A+ A+ 41% 15% 43% A- A+ F A+ C D F F F A+ A- A+ A A+ 40% 12% 47% B+ A+ A D+ B+ D A+ B- A+
1.21 58% 43% 70% +24 +1 1.52 14% 2.0 .29 22% .22 58% .13 0.99 48% 0% 26% -15 +1 0.75 30% 1.2 .37 13% .23 71% .17
Dec
6		 Colorado A+ A+ D- A+ A+ 20% 17% 63% C A+ D C- D+ C C B+ C+ F+ F F D- F 56% 11% 33% F F A+ F C+ F A+ A+ A+
1.36 73% 33% 50% +17 -1 1.35 22% 1.0 .22 16% .30 76% .23 1.28 77% 50% 39% +14 +2 1.35 20% 1.4 .28 9% .21 54% .11
Dec
9		 Dartmouth B- A+ B+ A A+ 53% 18% 29% B- A+ F F F F F A+ F A D- A+ B+ B 30% 13% 57% D+ B- C- A+ B- A A+ A+ A+
1.20 81% 44% 40% +16 +1 1.37 19% 0.8 .14 19% .06 100% .06 0.87 64% 17% 31% -4 0 0.96 25% 0.9 .22 24% .17 50% .08
Dec
20		 Utah St. D F C+ D F+ 32% 20% 49% C D- D+ B C D- A A- A+ F D F F F 50% 10% 40% D+ F F C- F C+ F A+ D
0.91 38% 38% 30% -9 0 0.83 27% 1.1 .30 24% .39 79% .31 1.57 67% 60% 58% +21 +2 1.48 59% 1.2 .70 16% .45 58% .26
Dec
30		 Nevada D A+ F F D- 30% 23% 48% D D- B+ B A- B- A+ F A+ D+ F A+ A+ A+ 18% 39% 43% A+ A+ B+ F F C- F C+ F
0.97 77% 10% 24% -8 -1 0.84 33% 1.3 .42 16% .54 62% .33 1.18 75% 18% 26% -10 -4 0.75 29% 2.4 .71 13% .56 74% .41
Jan
3		 Grand Canyon A B+ F B- B+ 36% 11% 52% A A- A+ F C+ D- A+ D A+ A A- D+ A+ A+ 33% 20% 47% B A+ B+ F C- C- A A+ A+
1.12 63% 20% 35% 0 +1 1.05 41% 0.7 .28 21% .50 68% .34 0.96 50% 40% 22% -11 0 0.80 28% 1.3 .36 16% .25 62% .15
Jan
6		 New Mexico B- C C+ C B- 42% 14% 44% A- B B+ A+ A+ D F+ A+ D+ D D- C+ F F+ 37% 17% 46% B+ D C F F C+ F+ A+ C
1.07 57% 43% 32% -1 +1 1.02 33% 1.3 .42 21% .21 82% .17 1.22 65% 38% 43% +8 0 1.20 31% 1.8 .55 15% .38 62% .23
Jan
9		 UNLV C- F D+ A C- 36% 17% 47% C+ C- A+ A+ A+ F A+ D+ A+ A A+ F+ A A+ 42% 19% 40% C- A+ D+ C D+ A+ F A+ F
1.09 38% 33% 41% -3 0 0.97 41% 1.3 .55 23% .61 70% .43 0.97 44% 50% 29% -6 +1 0.91 35% 0.9 .32 25% .52 60% .31
Jan
13		 Fresno St. B A A+ C- A- 31% 16% 53% C A- C+ F F+ C+ C- B C F C A- D C 37% 22% 41% C+ C C F D- F F F F
1.10 73% 50% 31% +4 0 1.10 30% 0.6 .18 18% .23 75% .17 1.26 59% 30% 37% 0 0 1.02 30% 1.2 .37 11% .43 96% .41
Jan
16		 Boise St. A A- F A+ A+ 27% 20% 52% C+ A+ B F F F B A+ A+ D A- F D+ D+ 27% 11% 61% B- C- C- F F B F C+ F
1.17 67% 0% 61% +16 -1 1.32 26% 0.3 .09 24% .30 93% .28 1.27 50% 80% 37% +5 0 1.14 35% 1.4 .48 18% .53 78% .41
Jan
20		 Air Force B- A D+ B B 40% 17% 44% B B+ D- B- D A+ A F+ B A F C A+ A+ 29% 13% 58% C+ A+ A- A+ A+ C A- F C+
1.24 74% 38% 38% +9 +1 1.21 23% 1.1 .26 9% .39 65% .25 0.80 79% 33% 14% -12 0 0.79 17% 0.7 .11 21% .23 75% .18
Jan
23		 Utah St. D+ A+ C A+ A+ 16% 37% 47% F A C A+ A+ F F+ D+ F+ A D- F A+ C+ 32% 30% 38% A+ B A+ F+ A+ B- A+ F A+
0.98 83% 36% 44% +11 -4 1.16 30% 1.7 .52 34% .24 70% .17 1.05 69% 53% 26% +4 -2 1.06 21% 1.3 .28 16% .10 80% .08
Jan
28		 San Diego St. F+ A+ D F D- 8% 25% 68% F F+ B- C- C+ F C C- C D+ F B- F F 30% 41% 30% A+ D- F B+ D B+ D+ C D+
0.82 100% 30% 22% -11 -3 0.75 32% 0.9 .29 28% .32 71% .23 1.20 85% 33% 46% +11 -3 1.18 41% 1.0 .41 20% .35 76% .27
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
31		 Wyoming D C- C+ F F+ 53% 10% 37% A- D B+ F D B- F C+ F C A B- F F 24% 14% 62% A- F+ A B+ A C+ F C+ F
0.97 56% 40% 21% -8 +2 0.90 32% 0.6 .19 15% .20 70% .14 1.16 44% 40% 48% +10 0 1.22 27% 0.9 .23 17% .49 75% .37
Feb
7		 San Jose St. F D+ F F F 40% 10% 50% B- F C- A B- B A- C B+ A+ A+ B- A+ A+ 33% 35% 32% B- A+ A+ F A+ F A+ F A-
0.99 58% 20% 17% -15 +1 0.75 32% 1.3 .43 15% .36 75% .27 0.87 42% 35% 17% -15 -2 0.68 8% 2.7 .21 6% .18 91% .16
Feb
10		 Air Force A+ A+ A A+ A+ 20% 20% 61% D+ A+ F F F B A+ A+ A+ F F B F F 40% 16% 44% C F B- A+ A+ D+ F A+ C
1.39 75% 50% 56% +26 -1 1.51 14% 0.0 .00 12% .63 81% .51 1.13 71% 29% 58% +19 +1 1.42 21% 0.5 .10 20% .42 45% .19
Feb
14		 Wyoming
Feb
18		 UNLV A+ A+ A- A- A+ 45% 18% 37% B- A+ B- C B- A+ A B- A F C- F F D 44% 13% 42% D- D- D D D F+ D D- D-
1.39 82% 44% 39% +15 +1 1.33 33% 1.1 .37 11% .46 74% .34 1.32 61% 57% 41% +8 +1 1.21 35% 1.0 .35 12% .40 74% .30
Feb
21		 San Diego St. A+ C F A- A 27% 2% 71% A A B- A+ A+ B A+ A+ A+ C+ A+ B- C A+ 36% 27% 38% C A+ F A C B- F F F
1.23 55% 0% 38% +2 +2 1.10 31% 1.7 .52 19% .53 83% .44 1.09 38% 33% 35% -8 -1 0.84 38% 0.9 .36 18% .43 83% .36
Feb
24		 Fresno St. B- B B- C B 24% 24% 51% D- B- B- A+ A B B+ B+ A- C B D- F D- 25% 35% 39% A+ C- B+ C- B- C+ A B- A
1.11 67% 42% 32% +1 -1 1.02 32% 1.4 .44 17% .31 76% .23 1.05 54% 44% 40% +5 -3 1.06 25% 1.0 .25 18% .20 73% .15
Feb
28		 San Jose St. A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ 48% 12% 40% B A+ F F F C A+ A A+ C- D F C F+ 17% 42% 42% A+ D+ A+ D A- F F B- F
1.34 80% 60% 53% +25 +2 1.55 22% 0.3 .06 17% .46 83% .38 1.15 63% 50% 35% +6 -4 1.06 22% 1.1 .25 9% .43 72% .31



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 1.7 1.7 4th
5th 0.5 9.8 10.3 5th
6th 30.9 30.9 6th
7th 15.7 15.7 7th
8th 39.6 1.9 41.5 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 39.6 48.9 11.5 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8 11.5% 5.3% 5.0% 0.3% 11.0 0.1 0.5 0.1 10.9 0.3%
11-9 48.9% 2.3% 2.2% 0.1% 11.3 0.0 0.7 0.4 47.7 0.1%
10-10 39.6% 1.7% 1.7% 11.5 0.3 0.3 39.0
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 2.4% 2.3% 0.1% 11.3 97.6 0.1%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.6% 100.0% 11.0 13.8 75.9 10.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 1.0% 0.5% 11.0 0.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 3.0% 0.5% 11.0 0.5
Lose Out 18.4%