Preseason Rankings
Virginia Commonwealth
Atlantic 10
2025-26
Overall
Predictive Rating+9.6#58
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace65.6#247
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+3.3#87
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+6.3#33
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.6% 0.6% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 2.1% 2.1% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 4.4% 4.4% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 29.1% 29.4% 10.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 9.2% 9.4% 1.4%
Average Seed 9.3 9.3 11.0
.500 or above 95.1% 95.4% 77.3%
.500 or above in Conference 88.0% 88.2% 70.7%
Conference Champion 31.5% 31.8% 10.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.7% 0.6% 2.9%
First Four3.0% 3.1% 0.7%
First Round27.7% 28.0% 9.8%
Second Round12.8% 13.0% 2.6%
Sweet Sixteen4.0% 4.1% 1.0%
Elite Eight1.4% 1.4% 0.0%
Final Four0.4% 0.4% 0.0%
Championship Game0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
National Champion0.1% 0.1% 0.0%

Next Game: Wagner (Home) - 98.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 11 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b1 - 11 - 2
Quad 24 - 35 - 6
Quad 39 - 313 - 8
Quad 49 - 023 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 03, 2025 343   Wagner W 69-45 99%    
  Nov 07, 2025 54   Utah St. L 70-71 48%    
  Nov 12, 2025 297   St. Peter's W 71-51 96%    
  Nov 17, 2025 31   @ North Carolina St. L 63-70 26%    
  Nov 22, 2025 362   Coppin St. W 81-51 99.6%   
  Nov 26, 2025 106   South Florida W 72-67 67%    
  Dec 05, 2025 166   Samford W 80-66 88%    
  Dec 10, 2025 79   New Mexico W 75-69 68%    
  Dec 15, 2025 335   Niagara W 77-54 98%    
  Dec 18, 2025 303   American W 74-53 96%    
  Dec 22, 2025 313   Rider W 76-55 97%    
  Dec 31, 2025 120   St. Bonaventure W 69-59 81%    
  Jan 03, 2026 115   @ Duquesne W 67-64 61%    
  Jan 07, 2026 72   Saint Louis W 71-66 65%    
  Jan 10, 2026 99   @ George Mason W 65-63 55%    
  Jan 14, 2026 146   @ Rhode Island W 74-68 69%    
  Jan 19, 2026 111   Saint Joseph's W 72-63 77%    
  Jan 24, 2026 144   @ Davidson W 70-64 69%    
  Jan 27, 2026 137   Richmond W 70-59 82%    
  Jan 30, 2026 103   Loyola Chicago W 71-63 75%    
  Feb 03, 2026 164   @ Fordham W 75-68 73%    
  Feb 06, 2026 65   Dayton W 69-65 62%    
  Feb 11, 2026 196   @ La Salle W 74-65 77%    
  Feb 14, 2026 137   @ Richmond W 67-62 66%    
  Feb 17, 2026 85   George Washington W 72-66 70%    
  Feb 20, 2026 72   @ Saint Louis L 68-69 46%    
  Feb 28, 2026 164   Fordham W 78-65 86%    
  Mar 03, 2026 99   George Mason W 68-60 72%    
  Mar 06, 2026 65   @ Dayton L 66-68 43%    
Projected Record 21 - 8 12 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic 10 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 2.4 5.9 8.5 7.7 4.7 1.9 31.5 1st
2nd 0.0 0.6 3.0 6.1 5.6 2.5 0.5 0.0 18.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 2.5 5.0 3.5 1.0 0.1 0.0 12.5 3rd
4th 0.1 1.8 4.4 2.7 0.6 0.0 9.6 4th
5th 0.0 1.0 3.5 2.4 0.4 0.0 7.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 2.3 2.3 0.4 0.0 5.4 6th
7th 0.1 1.6 2.1 0.7 0.0 4.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.7 1.8 0.7 0.1 3.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 1.2 0.8 0.1 2.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.7 0.9 0.1 0.0 1.8 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.2 0.0 1.3 11th
12th 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.9 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.6 13th
14th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 14th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.1 1.9 3.2 4.8 6.4 8.7 10.3 11.5 12.6 12.6 11.0 8.2 4.8 1.9 Total



Atlantic 10 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 1.9    1.9
17-1 99.7% 4.7    4.7 0.1
16-2 93.8% 7.7    6.7 1.0 0.0
15-3 77.1% 8.5    5.9 2.4 0.2 0.0
14-4 47.3% 5.9    2.7 2.6 0.6 0.1
13-5 18.8% 2.4    0.6 1.1 0.6 0.2 0.0
12-6 3.4% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 31.5% 31.5 22.4 7.3 1.5 0.3 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 1.9% 92.8% 65.0% 27.7% 4.4 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 79.3%
17-1 4.8% 85.3% 54.1% 31.3% 6.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.7 68.1%
16-2 8.2% 70.2% 44.1% 26.1% 8.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.7 1.2 1.5 0.9 0.0 2.4 46.7%
15-3 11.0% 53.7% 37.6% 16.1% 9.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.9 1.8 2.4 0.1 5.1 25.8%
14-4 12.6% 35.7% 28.8% 6.8% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.0 2.7 0.3 0.0 8.1 9.6%
13-5 12.6% 23.9% 21.5% 2.5% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 2.0 0.5 0.0 9.6 3.1%
12-6 11.5% 17.4% 16.5% 0.9% 11.3 0.1 1.3 0.6 0.0 9.5 1.1%
11-7 10.3% 11.0% 10.8% 0.2% 11.5 0.0 0.6 0.5 0.0 0.0 9.2 0.2%
10-8 8.7% 6.6% 6.6% 11.7 0.2 0.3 0.0 0.0 8.2
9-9 6.4% 3.8% 3.8% 11.9 0.1 0.1 0.0 6.1
8-10 4.8% 2.6% 2.6% 12.5 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.7
7-11 3.2% 1.0% 1.0% 13.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.2
6-12 1.9% 1.3% 1.3% 16.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.9
5-13 1.1% 0.4% 0.4% 31.0 0.0 0.0 1.1
4-14 0.6% 0.6
3-15 0.2% 0.2
2-16 0.1% 0.1
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 29.1% 21.9% 7.2% 9.3 0.2 0.3 0.6 1.0 1.0 1.3 1.5 1.7 3.0 5.4 10.3 2.4 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 70.9 9.2%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.4% 100.0% 2.5 24.2 25.3 31.0 16.1 2.3 1.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1% 93.8% 3.8 12.3 12.3 18.8 6.6 24.8 18.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.0% 100.0% 5.0 33.6 32.8 33.6