North Alabama
Atlantic Sun
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-1.2#182
Expected Predictive Rating-0.6#205
Pace69.0#189
Improvement-1.3#309

Offense
Total Offense+1.0#145
First Shot+3.1#86
After Offensive Rebound-2.0#282
Layup/Dunks-0.1#186
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.8#24
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.1#59
Freethrows-4.7#345
Improvement-0.3#220

Defense
Total Defense-2.3#245
First Shot-3.9#296
After Offensive Rebounds+1.7#75
Layups/Dunks-1.9#242
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.0#130
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.8#308
Freethrows+0.8#150
Improvement-1.1#301
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 14.8% 16.0% 11.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.4 14.3 14.9
.500 or above 82.4% 86.7% 68.4%
.500 or above in Conference 85.3% 87.1% 79.1%
Conference Champion 19.0% 20.9% 12.8%
Last Place in Conference 0.5% 0.3% 1.2%
First Four1.2% 0.9% 1.8%
First Round14.3% 15.7% 10.1%
Second Round0.8% 1.0% 0.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Louisiana Monroe (Neutral) - 76.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 10 - 2
Quad 33 - 54 - 8
Quad 415 - 519 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 284   @ Air Force W 73-57 58%     1 - 0 +12.8 +5.7 +9.0
  Nov 11, 2024 295   Tennessee Martin W 87-69 80%     2 - 0 +8.0 +9.0 -1.2
  Nov 15, 2024 127   Samford L 96-97 OT 48%     2 - 1 -1.8 +0.5 -2.1
  Nov 18, 2024 4   @ Auburn L 69-102 2%     2 - 2 -10.5 +1.8 -10.4
  Nov 23, 2024 323   Louisiana Monroe W 75-67 76%    
  Nov 24, 2024 316   @ Northwestern St. W 75-71 65%    
  Dec 01, 2024 200   @ Wofford L 71-73 41%    
  Dec 04, 2024 334   Tennessee Tech W 77-65 87%    
  Dec 11, 2024 160   @ East Carolina L 69-73 34%    
  Dec 19, 2024 311   Charleston Southern W 79-69 82%    
  Dec 22, 2024 154   @ Loyola Marymount L 68-73 34%    
  Jan 02, 2025 335   Bellarmine W 78-66 87%    
  Jan 04, 2025 196   Eastern Kentucky W 78-74 63%    
  Jan 09, 2025 213   @ Florida Gulf Coast L 67-69 45%    
  Jan 11, 2025 333   @ Stetson W 78-72 71%    
  Jan 16, 2025 185   @ Jacksonville L 68-71 40%    
  Jan 18, 2025 177   @ North Florida L 77-80 39%    
  Jan 23, 2025 151   Lipscomb W 77-76 55%    
  Jan 25, 2025 236   Austin Peay W 73-67 69%    
  Jan 29, 2025 300   @ Queens W 79-76 60%    
  Feb 01, 2025 342   Central Arkansas W 81-67 89%    
  Feb 05, 2025 236   @ Austin Peay L 70-71 49%    
  Feb 08, 2025 353   @ West Georgia W 78-69 78%    
  Feb 13, 2025 177   North Florida W 80-77 59%    
  Feb 15, 2025 185   Jacksonville W 71-68 61%    
  Feb 18, 2025 353   West Georgia W 81-66 90%    
  Feb 20, 2025 151   @ Lipscomb L 74-79 35%    
  Feb 24, 2025 342   @ Central Arkansas W 78-70 75%    
  Feb 26, 2025 300   Queens W 82-73 79%    
Projected Record 18 - 11 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.3 1.9 4.9 6.0 3.9 1.8 0.3 19.0 1st
2nd 0.3 2.9 5.5 4.6 1.5 0.2 15.1 2nd
3rd 0.3 2.5 6.1 4.4 1.0 0.1 14.3 3rd
4th 0.2 2.1 5.6 4.3 0.7 0.0 13.0 4th
5th 0.1 1.6 4.9 3.9 0.8 0.0 11.4 5th
6th 0.1 1.1 4.0 3.8 0.9 0.0 9.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.9 2.8 2.8 0.7 0.0 7.2 7th
8th 0.1 0.6 1.8 2.0 0.5 0.0 5.0 8th
9th 0.1 0.3 1.3 1.1 0.4 3.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.1 1.4 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.6 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 12th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.1 2.5 4.0 6.4 9.1 11.7 13.3 14.4 12.5 10.5 7.6 4.1 1.8 0.3 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.3    0.3
17-1 100.0% 1.8    1.8
16-2 94.6% 3.9    3.3 0.7
15-3 79.1% 6.0    4.0 1.8 0.2
14-4 46.8% 4.9    1.8 2.2 0.9 0.1 0.0
13-5 15.0% 1.9    0.3 0.7 0.7 0.2 0.0
12-6 1.9% 0.3    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 19.0% 19.0 11.4 5.4 1.8 0.3 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.3% 62.2% 62.2% 11.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1
17-1 1.8% 45.7% 45.7% 12.7 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.1 1.0
16-2 4.1% 39.3% 39.3% 13.4 0.2 0.6 0.7 0.1 0.0 2.5
15-3 7.6% 30.9% 30.9% 13.9 0.1 0.7 1.1 0.4 0.1 5.2
14-4 10.5% 26.1% 26.1% 14.3 0.0 0.4 1.2 0.9 0.2 7.8
13-5 12.5% 18.8% 18.8% 14.7 0.1 0.8 1.2 0.3 10.1
12-6 14.4% 13.7% 13.7% 15.1 0.0 0.4 0.9 0.6 12.4
11-7 13.3% 8.4% 8.4% 15.4 0.1 0.5 0.5 12.2
10-8 11.7% 8.7% 8.7% 15.6 0.0 0.4 0.6 10.7
9-9 9.1% 3.9% 3.9% 15.7 0.0 0.1 0.3 8.7
8-10 6.4% 2.4% 2.4% 15.9 0.0 0.1 6.2
7-11 4.0% 3.6% 3.6% 16.0 0.1 3.9
6-12 2.5% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.0 2.4
5-13 1.1% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.0 1.1
4-14 0.6% 0.6
3-15 0.2% 0.2
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 14.8% 14.8% 0.0% 14.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 2.2 4.3 4.6 2.9 85.2 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 9.7 15.2 12.1 15.2 42.4 15.2