North Alabama
Atlantic Sun
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-1.0#181
Expected Predictive Rating-0.5#170
Pace69.0#180
Improvement-0.4#197

Offense
Total Offense-0.2#175
First Shot+1.1#147
After Offensive Rebound-1.3#267
Layup/Dunks+2.5#96
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.2#70
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.4#168
Freethrows-3.9#356
Improvement-0.9#249

Defense
Total Defense-0.9#197
First Shot-2.8#272
After Offensive Rebounds+1.9#52
Layups/Dunks-3.3#301
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.0#197
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.5#217
Freethrows+1.0#106
Improvement+0.5#156
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 13.3% 15.8% 11.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.4 14.1 14.6
.500 or above 91.2% 96.4% 88.2%
.500 or above in Conference 88.7% 91.8% 86.9%
Conference Champion 14.2% 17.8% 12.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.3% 0.3% 0.3%
First Four0.3% 0.2% 0.4%
First Round13.1% 15.7% 11.6%
Second Round0.7% 1.1% 0.5%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Loyola Marymount (Away) - 37.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 10 - 2
Quad 33 - 54 - 8
Quad 415 - 419 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 270   @ Air Force W 73-57 57%     1 - 0 +13.1 +7.6 +7.4
  Nov 11, 2024 287   Tennessee Martin W 87-69 79%     2 - 0 +8.3 +10.1 -2.0
  Nov 15, 2024 115   Samford L 96-97 OT 46%     2 - 1 -1.1 -0.8 -0.1
  Nov 18, 2024 1   @ Auburn L 69-102 1%     2 - 2 -6.5 +1.6 -6.3
  Nov 23, 2024 334   Louisiana Monroe W 74-62 81%     3 - 2 +1.5 +4.2 -1.6
  Nov 24, 2024 291   @ Northwestern St. L 58-71 61%     3 - 3 -16.9 -9.5 -8.9
  Dec 01, 2024 152   @ Wofford L 54-74 34%     3 - 4 -16.8 -17.3 -0.2
  Dec 04, 2024 328   Tennessee Tech W 82-59 86%     4 - 4 +10.6 +7.4 +4.6
  Dec 11, 2024 182   @ East Carolina W 74-67 39%     5 - 4 +8.9 +2.6 +6.3
  Dec 19, 2024 302   Charleston Southern W 86-69 82%     6 - 4 +6.4 +10.9 -3.8
  Dec 22, 2024 169   @ Loyola Marymount L 69-72 37%    
  Jan 02, 2025 344   Bellarmine W 81-67 90%    
  Jan 04, 2025 232   Eastern Kentucky W 79-73 70%    
  Jan 09, 2025 186   @ Florida Gulf Coast L 68-71 40%    
  Jan 11, 2025 347   @ Stetson W 78-70 77%    
  Jan 16, 2025 209   @ Jacksonville L 70-72 44%    
  Jan 18, 2025 207   @ North Florida L 79-81 44%    
  Jan 23, 2025 110   Lipscomb L 72-74 42%    
  Jan 25, 2025 284   Austin Peay W 71-62 78%    
  Jan 29, 2025 264   @ Queens W 76-75 56%    
  Feb 01, 2025 340   Central Arkansas W 78-65 89%    
  Feb 05, 2025 284   @ Austin Peay W 68-65 60%    
  Feb 08, 2025 341   @ West Georgia W 76-69 75%    
  Feb 13, 2025 207   North Florida W 82-78 66%    
  Feb 15, 2025 209   Jacksonville W 73-69 65%    
  Feb 18, 2025 341   West Georgia W 79-66 88%    
  Feb 20, 2025 110   @ Lipscomb L 69-77 23%    
  Feb 24, 2025 340   @ Central Arkansas W 75-68 74%    
  Feb 26, 2025 264   Queens W 79-72 75%    
Projected Record 18 - 11 12 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.2 1.5 3.7 4.5 3.2 1.0 0.2 14.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 3.1 6.9 6.1 2.2 0.3 0.0 19.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 3.5 7.7 5.3 1.2 0.1 18.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 3.0 6.8 4.2 0.7 0.0 15.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 2.0 5.3 3.7 0.6 0.0 11.7 5th
6th 0.1 1.2 4.0 3.0 0.4 0.0 8.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.8 2.5 2.2 0.5 0.0 6.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 1.3 1.4 0.3 0.0 3.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.8 0.2 0.0 1.9 9th
10th 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.9 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 12th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.6 3.1 5.6 8.8 12.3 14.9 15.8 14.5 11.0 6.8 3.4 1.0 0.2 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
17-1 99.6% 1.0    1.0 0.0
16-2 92.3% 3.2    2.6 0.6 0.0
15-3 66.6% 4.5    2.8 1.6 0.2
14-4 33.8% 3.7    1.3 1.8 0.6 0.1
13-5 10.1% 1.5    0.2 0.6 0.5 0.1 0.0
12-6 1.0% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 14.2% 14.2 8.0 4.5 1.3 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.2% 35.6% 35.6% 11.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
17-1 1.0% 42.7% 42.7% 12.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.6
16-2 3.4% 34.1% 34.1% 13.3 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.4 0.0 2.3
15-3 6.8% 28.5% 28.5% 13.7 0.1 0.6 1.0 0.2 0.0 4.8
14-4 11.0% 21.7% 21.7% 14.1 0.0 0.4 1.2 0.7 0.0 8.6
13-5 14.5% 16.0% 16.0% 14.5 0.0 0.1 1.0 1.0 0.2 12.2
12-6 15.8% 12.9% 12.9% 14.8 0.0 0.5 1.2 0.3 13.7
11-7 14.9% 9.7% 9.7% 15.1 0.0 0.2 0.9 0.4 13.5
10-8 12.3% 7.3% 7.3% 15.3 0.1 0.5 0.4 11.4
9-9 8.8% 4.5% 4.5% 15.5 0.0 0.2 0.2 8.5
8-10 5.6% 2.0% 2.0% 15.9 0.0 0.1 5.5
7-11 3.1% 1.7% 1.7% 16.0 0.0 0.1 3.0
6-12 1.6% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.0 1.6
5-13 0.7% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 0.7
4-14 0.2% 0.2
3-15 0.1% 0.1
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 13.3% 13.3% 0.0% 14.4 0.0 0.0 0.4 2.0 4.5 4.7 1.6 86.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 11.7 3.8 26.9 50.0 19.2