North Alabama
Atlantic Sun
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+1.4#134
Expected Predictive Rating+0.6#155
Pace67.1#208
Improvement+1.5#118

Offense
Total Offense+2.4#108
First Shot+2.4#109
After Offensive Rebound+0.0#185
Layup/Dunks+3.3#66
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.0#66
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.1#180
Freethrows-3.0#339
Improvement+1.9#93

Defense
Total Defense-1.0#203
First Shot-2.1#240
After Offensive Rebounds+1.1#88
Layups/Dunks-2.7#285
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.2#182
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.9#237
Freethrows+1.3#94
Improvement-0.4#202
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 25.4% 26.5% 19.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.8 13.7 14.2
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 74.8% 84.5% 19.9%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round25.4% 26.5% 19.1%
Second Round1.3% 1.4% 0.7%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Central Arkansas (Away) - 85.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 10 - 3
Quad 33 - 63 - 9
Quad 418 - 121 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 294   @ Air Force W 73-57 72%     1 - 0 +11.2 +6.9 +6.2
  Nov 11, 2024 306   Tennessee Martin W 87-69 87%     2 - 0 +7.1 +8.1 -1.2
  Nov 15, 2024 113   Samford L 96-97 OT 54%     2 - 1 -0.6 +2.9 -3.3
  Nov 18, 2024 1   @ Auburn L 69-102 2%     2 - 2 -6.9 +3.0 -8.1
  Nov 23, 2024 336   Louisiana Monroe W 74-62 88%     3 - 2 +0.5 +4.0 -2.4
  Nov 24, 2024 272   @ Northwestern St. L 58-71 69%     3 - 3 -16.8 -8.6 -9.6
  Dec 01, 2024 142   @ Wofford L 54-74 41%     3 - 4 -16.4 -16.8 -0.4
  Dec 04, 2024 308   Tennessee Tech W 82-59 87%     4 - 4 +12.0 +9.1 +4.4
  Dec 11, 2024 150   @ East Carolina W 74-67 43%     5 - 4 +10.2 +2.3 +8.0
  Dec 19, 2024 285   Charleston Southern W 86-69 84%     6 - 4 +7.5 +12.6 -4.4
  Dec 22, 2024 169   @ Loyola Marymount L 69-85 47%     6 - 5 -13.8 +0.8 -14.9
  Jan 02, 2025 340   Bellarmine W 82-66 92%     7 - 5 1 - 0 +1.8 +6.9 -3.4
  Jan 04, 2025 191   Eastern Kentucky W 88-67 71%     8 - 5 2 - 0 +16.6 +10.9 +5.8
  Jan 09, 2025 180   @ Florida Gulf Coast L 70-75 50%     8 - 6 2 - 1 -3.5 -0.6 -3.1
  Jan 11, 2025 349   @ Stetson W 92-64 86%     9 - 6 3 - 1 +17.7 +20.9 -0.5
  Jan 16, 2025 193   @ Jacksonville L 60-64 53%     9 - 7 3 - 2 -3.3 -9.9 +6.5
  Jan 18, 2025 266   @ North Florida W 90-84 66%     10 - 7 4 - 2 +3.0 +12.0 -9.0
  Jan 23, 2025 101   Lipscomb W 74-64 48%     11 - 7 5 - 2 +11.9 +13.6 -0.2
  Jan 25, 2025 276   Austin Peay W 88-84 OT 83%     12 - 7 6 - 2 -5.0 +1.8 -7.2
  Jan 29, 2025 231   @ Queens L 67-75 60%     12 - 8 6 - 3 -9.3 -6.6 -2.9
  Feb 01, 2025 344   Central Arkansas W 94-65 93%     13 - 8 7 - 3 +14.2 +23.5 -6.4
  Feb 05, 2025 276   @ Austin Peay W 74-64 69%     14 - 8 8 - 3 +6.1 +1.3 +5.0
  Feb 08, 2025 348   @ West Georgia W 78-61 86%     15 - 8 9 - 3 +6.8 +6.9 +1.3
  Feb 13, 2025 266   North Florida W 83-70 81%     16 - 8 10 - 3 +4.9 +4.0 +1.2
  Feb 15, 2025 193   Jacksonville W 92-79 71%     17 - 8 11 - 3 +8.6 +23.0 -13.9
  Feb 18, 2025 348   West Georgia W 80-62 93%     18 - 8 12 - 3 +2.7 -0.1 +2.9
  Feb 20, 2025 101   @ Lipscomb L 63-75 29%     18 - 9 12 - 4 -5.0 +1.4 -7.9
  Feb 24, 2025 344   @ Central Arkansas W 77-66 85%    
  Feb 26, 2025 231   Queens W 81-73 79%    
Projected Record 20 - 9 14 - 4




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 7.8 67.0 74.8 1st
2nd 0.8 21.9 22.7 2nd
3rd 2.0 2.0 3rd
4th 0.6 0.6 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 3.3 29.7 67.0 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 100.0% 67.0    16.8 50.2
13-5 26.1% 7.8    0.1 2.0 4.6 1.1
12-6 0.0%
11-7
10-8
9-9
Total 74.8% 74.8 16.9 52.2 4.6 1.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 67.0% 28.6% 28.6% 13.6 0.7 7.7 9.6 1.3 47.8
13-5 29.7% 19.3% 19.3% 14.2 0.0 0.6 3.3 1.8 0.0 24.0
12-6 3.3% 13.6% 13.6% 14.5 0.0 0.2 0.2 2.9
11-7
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 25.4% 25.4% 0.0% 13.8 0.7 8.3 13.1 3.3 0.0 74.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 19.2% 100.0% 13.6 3.4 39.9 50.1 6.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 20.5%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 22.3%
Lose Out 1.2%