East Carolina
American Athletic
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+1.0#145
Expected Predictive Rating+12.2#36
Pace62.8#336
Improvement+0.9#77

Offense
Total Offense+0.1#172
First Shot-4.4#296
After Offensive Rebound+4.5#18
Layup/Dunks-6.1#334
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.6#262
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.2#251
Freethrows+5.5#9
Improvement+0.1#164

Defense
Total Defense+0.8#139
First Shot+3.8#72
After Offensive Rebounds-3.0#325
Layups/Dunks+2.6#103
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.1#122
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.2#189
Freethrows+0.4#155
Improvement+0.9#65
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.7% 3.4% 1.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.3% 0.5% 0.1%
Average Seed 11.5 11.3 12.1
.500 or above 59.9% 70.7% 45.0%
.500 or above in Conference 42.5% 48.8% 33.9%
Conference Champion 2.4% 3.1% 1.5%
Last Place in Conference 9.7% 7.2% 13.2%
First Four0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
First Round2.6% 3.2% 1.7%
Second Round0.6% 0.7% 0.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Jacksonville St. (Neutral) - 58.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 42 - 6
Quad 36 - 57 - 12
Quad 48 - 215 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2024 296   Coastal Carolina W 63-59 85%     1 - 0 -6.1 -2.4 -2.9
  Nov 16, 2024 96   George Mason W 78-77 2OT 44%     2 - 0 +3.4 -0.4 +3.7
  Nov 21, 2024 184   Jacksonville St. W 65-63 58%    
  Nov 29, 2024 272   N.C. A&T W 77-67 82%    
  Dec 03, 2024 150   UNC Wilmington W 71-68 62%    
  Dec 07, 2024 72   @ South Carolina L 63-73 18%    
  Dec 11, 2024 187   North Alabama W 72-67 68%    
  Dec 17, 2024 273   Florida International W 76-66 81%    
  Dec 21, 2024 222   Gardner-Webb W 73-66 74%    
  Dec 31, 2024 121   @ South Florida L 65-70 33%    
  Jan 05, 2025 75   Florida Atlantic L 72-76 37%    
  Jan 08, 2025 113   Temple W 68-67 51%    
  Jan 11, 2025 33   @ Memphis L 66-80 11%    
  Jan 14, 2025 83   North Texas L 59-62 40%    
  Jan 18, 2025 94   @ Wichita St. L 65-73 25%    
  Jan 21, 2025 147   @ Tulsa L 71-74 41%    
  Jan 25, 2025 121   South Florida W 68-67 53%    
  Feb 01, 2025 113   @ Temple L 65-71 31%    
  Feb 05, 2025 171   Rice W 69-64 66%    
  Feb 08, 2025 278   @ Texas San Antonio W 74-70 63%    
  Feb 11, 2025 103   UAB L 69-70 48%    
  Feb 15, 2025 142   @ Charlotte L 62-65 39%    
  Feb 19, 2025 146   @ Tulane L 68-71 41%    
  Feb 23, 2025 278   Texas San Antonio W 77-67 80%    
  Mar 02, 2025 142   Charlotte W 65-62 59%    
  Mar 06, 2025 146   Tulane W 71-68 60%    
  Mar 09, 2025 75   @ Florida Atlantic L 69-79 21%    
Projected Record 14 - 13 8 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0 2.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 1.3 1.8 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 5.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 2.0 2.7 1.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 6.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 2.0 3.3 1.5 0.2 0.0 7.2 4th
5th 0.1 1.5 4.1 1.9 0.3 0.0 7.9 5th
6th 0.0 1.2 4.3 2.8 0.4 0.0 8.6 6th
7th 0.0 0.6 3.7 3.9 0.7 0.0 8.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 3.0 4.8 1.3 0.1 9.4 8th
9th 0.2 2.2 5.3 2.3 0.2 0.0 10.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 1.7 4.6 3.0 0.3 0.0 9.8 10th
11th 0.0 0.3 1.7 4.1 3.1 0.5 0.0 9.7 11th
12th 0.0 0.4 1.9 3.3 2.4 0.6 0.0 8.7 12th
13th 0.2 0.7 1.6 1.8 1.1 0.2 0.0 5.6 13th
Total 0.2 0.7 2.0 4.0 6.3 8.6 10.8 12.5 12.4 11.4 10.0 7.9 5.8 3.7 2.1 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 95.7% 0.1    0.1 0.0
16-2 86.7% 0.4    0.3 0.1
15-3 65.4% 0.7    0.4 0.3 0.0
14-4 34.6% 0.7    0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0
13-5 12.0% 0.4    0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 1.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 2.4% 2.4 1.2 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0
17-1 0.1% 69.6% 39.1% 30.4% 7.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 50.0%
16-2 0.4% 50.3% 30.3% 20.0% 9.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 28.7%
15-3 1.1% 26.6% 18.7% 7.9% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.8 9.8%
14-4 2.1% 17.2% 13.8% 3.5% 11.2 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 1.8 4.1%
13-5 3.7% 10.5% 9.6% 0.9% 11.6 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 3.3 1.0%
12-6 5.8% 7.3% 7.1% 0.2% 11.9 0.1 0.3 0.0 5.4 0.2%
11-7 7.9% 5.3% 5.3% 0.0% 12.1 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 7.4 0.0%
10-8 10.0% 2.3% 2.3% 12.3 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 9.8
9-9 11.4% 1.3% 1.3% 12.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 11.2
8-10 12.4% 0.6% 0.6% 13.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 12.3
7-11 12.5% 0.4% 0.4% 13.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 12.4
6-12 10.8% 0.2% 0.2% 14.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 10.8
5-13 8.6% 0.1% 0.1% 15.0 0.0 8.6
4-14 6.3% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 6.3
3-15 4.0% 4.0
2-16 2.0% 2.0
1-17 0.7% 0.7
0-18 0.2% 0.2
Total 100% 2.7% 2.4% 0.3% 11.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.7 1.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 97.3 0.3%