East Carolina
American Athletic
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+0.7#150
Expected Predictive Rating+0.1#165
Pace65.7#249
Improvement+0.9#149

Offense
Total Offense+1.1#142
First Shot-0.5#194
After Offensive Rebound+1.6#91
Layup/Dunks+1.7#122
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.2#163
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.1#327
Freethrows+2.7#42
Improvement+2.5#67

Defense
Total Defense-0.4#184
First Shot-0.2#190
After Offensive Rebounds-0.2#208
Layups/Dunks-0.2#173
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.3#18
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.7#318
Freethrows+1.4#86
Improvement-1.6#278
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.9% 2.1% 1.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.7 13.5 14.1
.500 or above 84.3% 93.8% 59.8%
.500 or above in Conference 82.8% 93.0% 56.2%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round1.9% 2.1% 1.5%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Texas San Antonio (Home) - 72.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 22 - 42 - 5
Quad 35 - 77 - 12
Quad 49 - 316 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2024 312   Coastal Carolina W 63-59 87%     1 - 0 -7.6 -4.3 -2.5
  Nov 16, 2024 75   George Mason W 78-77 2OT 34%     2 - 0 +6.1 +4.4 +1.6
  Nov 21, 2024 124   Jacksonville St. L 78-86 45%     2 - 1 -5.9 +7.0 -13.0
  Nov 22, 2024 349   Stetson W 71-64 89%     3 - 1 -5.9 -8.1 +2.4
  Nov 23, 2024 147   Illinois-Chicago W 72-55 50%     4 - 1 +17.7 +5.3 +14.0
  Nov 29, 2024 316   N.C. A&T W 93-69 87%     5 - 1 +12.3 +17.1 -4.4
  Dec 03, 2024 116   UNC Wilmington L 53-67 52%     5 - 2 -13.7 -19.7 +5.5
  Dec 07, 2024 84   @ South Carolina L 68-75 21%     5 - 3 +2.3 +13.5 -12.5
  Dec 11, 2024 134   North Alabama L 67-74 57%     5 - 4 -8.2 -7.9 -0.3
  Dec 17, 2024 268   Florida International W 75-64 80%     6 - 4 +2.9 +0.8 +2.0
  Dec 21, 2024 257   Gardner-Webb L 79-84 79%     6 - 5 -12.8 -0.8 -11.8
  Dec 31, 2024 176   @ South Florida L 69-75 46%     6 - 6 0 - 1 -4.4 -4.1 +0.0
  Jan 05, 2025 105   Florida Atlantic L 76-78 47%     6 - 7 0 - 2 -0.5 -2.3 +1.9
  Jan 08, 2025 155   Temple W 80-79 60%     7 - 7 1 - 2 -1.0 +2.3 -3.3
  Jan 11, 2025 47   @ Memphis L 70-74 12%     7 - 8 1 - 3 +9.7 -0.3 +10.3
  Jan 14, 2025 71   North Texas L 60-69 32%     7 - 9 1 - 4 -3.6 +1.8 -6.9
  Jan 18, 2025 115   @ Wichita St. W 75-72 32%     8 - 9 2 - 4 +8.4 +10.0 -1.4
  Jan 21, 2025 246   @ Tulsa W 85-76 OT 61%     9 - 9 3 - 4 +6.8 +11.4 -4.8
  Jan 25, 2025 176   South Florida W 64-55 66%     10 - 9 4 - 4 +5.5 -1.8 +8.4
  Feb 01, 2025 155   @ Temple L 94-98 OT 41%     10 - 10 4 - 5 -1.0 +10.2 -10.7
  Feb 05, 2025 178   Rice L 60-73 66%     10 - 11 4 - 6 -16.5 -16.1 -0.5
  Feb 08, 2025 208   @ Texas San Antonio W 80-79 53%     11 - 11 5 - 6 +1.0 +10.0 -9.0
  Feb 11, 2025 104   UAB W 82-75 47%     12 - 11 6 - 6 +8.6 +12.6 -3.4
  Feb 15, 2025 235   @ Charlotte W 75-59 58%     13 - 11 7 - 6 +14.5 +15.4 +2.3
  Feb 19, 2025 144   @ Tulane L 81-86 39%     13 - 12 7 - 7 -1.4 +8.7 -10.1
  Feb 23, 2025 208   Texas San Antonio W 79-73 72%    
  Mar 02, 2025 235   Charlotte W 73-66 77%    
  Mar 06, 2025 144   Tulane W 72-70 60%    
  Mar 09, 2025 105   @ Florida Atlantic L 74-80 28%    
Projected Record 15 - 14 9 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.8 0.8 3rd
4th 0.1 4.3 6.2 10.6 4th
5th 0.0 4.8 20.3 2.9 28.0 5th
6th 0.0 4.0 22.4 11.7 0.0 38.1 6th
7th 0.5 7.8 8.3 0.5 17.1 7th
8th 1.3 3.1 0.5 4.8 8th
9th 0.5 0.1 0.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
Total 2.3 14.9 36.1 36.8 10.0 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 10.0% 3.4% 3.4% 12.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 9.6
10-8 36.8% 2.1% 2.1% 13.4 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.0 36.0
9-9 36.1% 1.8% 1.8% 14.2 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 35.4
8-10 14.9% 0.7% 0.7% 14.5 0.1 0.1 14.8
7-11 2.3% 2.2% 2.2% 15.2 0.0 0.0 2.3
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 1.9% 1.9% 0.0% 13.7 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.8 0.3 0.0 98.1 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.3% 100.0% 12.8 2.9 32.4 44.1 20.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.6%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 3.1%
Lose Out 1.2%