Preseason Rankings
Virginia
Atlantic Coast
2024-25
Overall
Predictive Rating+9.2#57
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace55.1#364
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+1.7#125
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+7.5#8
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.7% 0.7% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 1.8% 1.9% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 5.9% 6.1% 0.6%
Top 6 Seed 11.4% 11.7% 2.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 35.6% 36.4% 12.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 33.3% 34.1% 12.3%
Average Seed 7.6 7.6 8.6
.500 or above 72.2% 73.3% 40.3%
.500 or above in Conference 57.0% 57.8% 33.0%
Conference Champion 4.2% 4.3% 0.5%
Last Place in Conference 4.6% 4.3% 10.9%
First Four4.6% 4.7% 1.9%
First Round33.2% 33.9% 11.5%
Second Round19.5% 20.0% 6.1%
Sweet Sixteen8.0% 8.2% 2.0%
Elite Eight3.5% 3.6% 0.6%
Final Four1.5% 1.5% 0.1%
Championship Game0.6% 0.6% 0.0%
National Champion0.3% 0.3% 0.0%

Next Game: Campbell (Home) - 96.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 51 - 5
Quad 1b2 - 43 - 8
Quad 25 - 48 - 12
Quad 34 - 112 - 13
Quad 46 - 018 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2024 301   Campbell W 69-50 97%    
  Nov 11, 2024 363   Coppin St. W 73-42 99.8%   
  Nov 15, 2024 37   Villanova L 56-58 44%    
  Nov 21, 2024 14   Tennessee L 59-64 33%    
  Nov 26, 2024 331   Manhattan W 72-50 98%    
  Nov 29, 2024 348   Holy Cross W 72-48 98%    
  Dec 04, 2024 25   @ Florida L 63-69 30%    
  Dec 07, 2024 78   @ SMU L 61-62 46%    
  Dec 12, 2024 298   Bethune-Cookman W 72-53 95%    
  Dec 18, 2024 42   Memphis W 66-64 55%    
  Dec 22, 2024 252   American W 66-49 93%    
  Dec 31, 2024 49   North Carolina St. W 63-60 59%    
  Jan 04, 2025 50   Louisville W 65-62 59%    
  Jan 08, 2025 109   @ California W 63-61 59%    
  Jan 11, 2025 93   @ Stanford W 64-63 50%    
  Jan 15, 2025 78   SMU W 64-59 66%    
  Jan 18, 2025 50   @ Louisville L 62-65 39%    
  Jan 21, 2025 114   Boston College W 65-56 77%    
  Jan 25, 2025 66   Notre Dame W 59-55 63%    
  Jan 29, 2025 36   @ Miami (FL) L 61-66 34%    
  Feb 01, 2025 74   Virginia Tech W 64-59 64%    
  Feb 03, 2025 52   @ Pittsburgh L 59-62 39%    
  Feb 08, 2025 80   Georgia Tech W 64-59 65%    
  Feb 15, 2025 74   @ Virginia Tech L 61-62 45%    
  Feb 17, 2025 4   Duke L 58-64 31%    
  Feb 22, 2025 7   @ North Carolina L 59-69 20%    
  Feb 26, 2025 41   @ Wake Forest L 60-65 35%    
  Mar 01, 2025 43   Clemson W 61-59 56%    
  Mar 04, 2025 83   Florida St. W 66-61 66%    
  Mar 08, 2025 56   @ Syracuse L 63-66 40%    
Projected Record 18 - 12 10 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.1 1.2 0.8 0.4 0.1 4.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 1.3 2.1 1.7 0.6 0.1 0.0 6.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 1.3 2.5 1.8 0.4 0.0 0.0 6.3 3rd
4th 0.1 1.2 3.0 2.0 0.5 0.0 6.8 4th
5th 0.0 0.7 2.9 2.7 0.5 0.0 6.9 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 2.4 3.3 0.9 0.1 0.0 6.9 6th
7th 0.1 1.5 3.6 1.6 0.1 0.0 6.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.5 3.2 2.6 0.4 0.0 6.7 8th
9th 0.1 1.9 3.6 0.9 0.0 6.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.9 3.3 1.9 0.1 0.0 6.2 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 2.5 2.8 0.4 0.0 6.0 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 1.3 3.2 1.1 0.1 5.8 12th
13th 0.0 0.6 2.7 1.8 0.2 0.0 5.3 13th
14th 0.0 0.3 1.8 2.3 0.5 0.0 5.0 14th
15th 0.0 0.2 1.2 2.2 1.0 0.0 4.6 15th
16th 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.7 1.2 0.2 0.0 4.1 16th
17th 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.4 1.0 0.2 0.0 3.5 17th
18th 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.8 0.6 0.2 0.0 2.5 18th
Total 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.7 2.9 4.3 6.1 7.8 9.1 9.9 10.8 10.5 9.7 8.3 6.5 4.9 3.3 1.8 0.9 0.4 0.1 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
19-1 96.8% 0.4    0.3 0.0
18-2 87.1% 0.8    0.6 0.2 0.0
17-3 65.7% 1.2    0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0
16-4 34.6% 1.1    0.5 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0
15-5 10.6% 0.5    0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
14-6 1.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 4.2% 4.2 2.4 1.2 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.1% 100.0% 36.4% 63.6% 1.4 0.1 0.0 100.0%
19-1 0.4% 100.0% 33.7% 66.3% 1.8 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
18-2 0.9% 100.0% 22.6% 77.4% 2.4 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-3 1.8% 99.8% 21.5% 78.2% 3.5 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.7%
16-4 3.3% 99.5% 15.7% 83.8% 4.7 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.4%
15-5 4.9% 97.3% 11.6% 85.7% 6.2 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 96.9%
14-6 6.5% 90.7% 8.8% 81.9% 7.5 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.8 1.2 1.1 1.0 0.6 0.3 0.0 0.6 89.8%
13-7 8.3% 78.2% 5.2% 73.0% 8.5 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.9 1.3 1.5 1.2 0.8 0.1 1.8 77.0%
12-8 9.7% 58.9% 2.7% 56.2% 9.3 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.9 1.3 1.5 1.3 0.1 4.0 57.8%
11-9 10.5% 35.1% 1.3% 33.7% 9.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 1.1 1.2 0.2 0.0 6.8 34.2%
10-10 10.8% 19.0% 0.9% 18.1% 10.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.9 0.2 8.7 18.3%
9-11 9.9% 5.1% 0.5% 4.6% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 9.4 4.6%
8-12 9.1% 1.1% 0.1% 1.0% 11.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 9.0 1.0%
7-13 7.8% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 11.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.7 0.1%
6-14 6.1% 0.0% 0.0% 12.0 0.0 0.0 6.1
5-15 4.3% 4.3
4-16 2.9% 2.9
3-17 1.7% 1.7
2-18 0.8% 0.8
1-19 0.3% 0.3
0-20 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 35.6% 3.4% 32.2% 7.6 0.7 1.2 1.8 2.3 2.6 2.9 3.8 4.5 5.1 5.2 4.9 0.7 0.0 0.0 64.4 33.3%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 1.1 93.3 6.7