Virginia
Atlantic Coast
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
Switch to All-time Team Page
Overall
Predictive Rating+9.0#58
Expected Predictive Rating+15.3#21
Pace55.1#364
Improvement+0.3#137

Offense
Total Offense+1.8#123
First Shot+3.6#78
After Offensive Rebound-1.8#282
Layup/Dunks-2.0#255
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.7#314
3 Pt Jumpshots+10.1#5
Freethrows-1.7#269
Improvement-0.3#226

Defense
Total Defense+7.2#16
First Shot+5.3#46
After Offensive Rebounds+2.0#65
Layups/Dunks+5.4#41
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.4#42
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.9#283
Freethrows+0.4#151
Improvement+0.6#96
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.3% 0.9% 0.1%
Top 2 Seed 0.9% 2.5% 0.5%
Top 4 Seed 3.9% 8.9% 2.6%
Top 6 Seed 9.9% 20.1% 7.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 39.4% 59.2% 34.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 37.7% 57.5% 32.5%
Average Seed 8.2 7.6 8.4
.500 or above 78.0% 91.4% 74.4%
.500 or above in Conference 57.5% 69.7% 54.2%
Conference Champion 2.9% 5.3% 2.2%
Last Place in Conference 3.5% 2.0% 3.9%
First Four6.8% 7.5% 6.6%
First Round35.8% 55.1% 30.6%
Second Round18.7% 31.5% 15.3%
Sweet Sixteen6.3% 11.8% 4.9%
Elite Eight2.3% 4.7% 1.7%
Final Four0.8% 1.7% 0.5%
Championship Game0.3% 0.7% 0.2%
National Champion0.1% 0.2% 0.0%

Next Game: Tennessee (Neutral) - 21.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 51 - 5
Quad 1b2 - 33 - 8
Quad 25 - 48 - 12
Quad 34 - 112 - 13
Quad 46 - 019 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2024 257   Campbell W 65-56 93%     1 - 0 +1.2 +1.2 +1.8
  Nov 11, 2024 363   Coppin St. W 62-45 99%     2 - 0 -5.0 -11.3 +8.1
  Nov 15, 2024 69   Villanova W 70-60 54%     3 - 0 +18.0 +8.4 +10.8
  Nov 21, 2024 8   Tennessee L 58-66 21%    
  Nov 26, 2024 328   Manhattan W 73-51 98%    
  Nov 29, 2024 318   Holy Cross W 73-52 97%    
  Dec 04, 2024 21   @ Florida L 63-71 23%    
  Dec 07, 2024 68   @ SMU L 65-67 42%    
  Dec 12, 2024 286   Bethune-Cookman W 70-52 95%    
  Dec 18, 2024 33   Memphis L 65-66 50%    
  Dec 22, 2024 265   American W 68-51 94%    
  Dec 31, 2024 52   North Carolina St. W 64-61 60%    
  Jan 04, 2025 46   Louisville W 65-63 57%    
  Jan 08, 2025 104   @ California W 63-62 55%    
  Jan 11, 2025 67   @ Stanford L 61-63 42%    
  Jan 15, 2025 68   SMU W 68-64 63%    
  Jan 18, 2025 46   @ Louisville L 62-66 37%    
  Jan 21, 2025 133   Boston College W 66-56 81%    
  Jan 25, 2025 56   Notre Dame W 61-58 60%    
  Jan 29, 2025 37   @ Miami (FL) L 61-67 32%    
  Feb 01, 2025 95   Virginia Tech W 64-57 72%    
  Feb 03, 2025 25   @ Pittsburgh L 58-66 25%    
  Feb 08, 2025 106   Georgia Tech W 69-61 75%    
  Feb 15, 2025 95   @ Virginia Tech W 61-60 52%    
  Feb 17, 2025 5   Duke L 58-65 26%    
  Feb 22, 2025 7   @ North Carolina L 62-73 16%    
  Feb 26, 2025 73   @ Wake Forest L 61-63 44%    
  Mar 01, 2025 49   Clemson W 63-60 58%    
  Mar 04, 2025 79   Florida St. W 65-60 66%    
  Mar 08, 2025 92   @ Syracuse W 66-65 52%    
Projected Record 18 - 12 10 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.3 0.8 0.9 0.5 0.2 0.0 2.9 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 1.0 1.8 1.4 0.5 0.1 0.0 5.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 1.5 2.8 1.8 0.4 0.0 6.8 3rd
4th 0.1 1.5 3.1 2.0 0.4 0.0 7.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.9 3.4 2.7 0.5 0.0 7.6 5th
6th 0.4 2.8 3.5 0.8 0.0 7.5 6th
7th 0.1 1.7 3.7 1.5 0.1 0.0 7.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.7 3.7 2.6 0.3 0.0 7.3 8th
9th 0.1 2.3 3.7 0.7 0.0 6.9 9th
10th 0.0 1.0 3.9 1.8 0.1 6.8 10th
11th 0.0 0.3 2.6 3.0 0.4 0.0 6.4 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 1.3 3.1 1.2 0.0 5.7 12th
13th 0.0 0.5 2.6 2.0 0.2 5.3 13th
14th 0.2 1.6 2.6 0.5 0.0 4.9 14th
15th 0.0 0.1 0.9 2.2 1.0 0.1 4.3 15th
16th 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.5 1.2 0.2 0.0 3.6 16th
17th 0.1 0.5 1.1 1.0 0.3 0.0 2.9 17th
18th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.0 1.8 18th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.2 2.2 3.8 5.9 8.0 9.5 11.4 11.8 11.0 10.5 8.5 6.5 4.4 2.7 1.4 0.6 0.2 0.0 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
19-1 97.1% 0.2    0.2 0.0
18-2 86.9% 0.5    0.4 0.1 0.0
17-3 63.5% 0.9    0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0
16-4 30.5% 0.8    0.3 0.4 0.2 0.0
15-5 7.8% 0.3    0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
14-6 1.4% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 2.9% 2.9 1.4 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
19-1 0.2% 100.0% 27.9% 72.1% 2.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
18-2 0.6% 100.0% 19.9% 80.1% 2.7 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-3 1.4% 100.0% 18.3% 81.7% 3.7 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-4 2.7% 99.5% 15.1% 84.4% 4.8 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.5%
15-5 4.4% 98.7% 9.9% 88.8% 6.2 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.9 0.9 0.7 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.1 98.6%
14-6 6.5% 94.8% 7.1% 87.7% 7.5 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.0 1.3 1.2 1.1 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.3 94.4%
13-7 8.5% 83.6% 4.2% 79.4% 8.6 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.0 1.5 1.6 1.4 0.8 0.0 1.4 82.9%
12-8 10.5% 68.5% 2.4% 66.1% 9.4 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.1 1.7 2.0 1.6 0.1 3.3 67.7%
11-9 11.0% 48.6% 1.5% 47.1% 10.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.9 1.7 2.0 0.2 5.7 47.8%
10-10 11.8% 27.0% 0.7% 26.3% 10.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.6 0.2 8.6 26.5%
9-11 11.4% 8.7% 0.4% 8.3% 10.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.1 0.0 10.4 8.4%
8-12 9.5% 2.2% 0.2% 2.0% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 9.2 2.0%
7-13 8.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 11.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.0 0.2%
6-14 5.9% 5.9
5-15 3.8% 3.8
4-16 2.2% 2.2
3-17 1.2% 1.2
2-18 0.5% 0.5
1-19 0.1% 0.1
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 39.4% 2.7% 36.7% 8.2 0.3 0.6 1.3 1.7 2.7 3.3 3.9 5.0 6.1 6.8 7.0 0.7 0.0 60.6 37.7%