Preseason Rankings
Atlantic Coast
2024-25


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
4 Duke 93.3%   2   0 - 0 0 - 0 24 - 7 15 - 5 +18.4      +9.7 6 +8.7 5 66.4 244 0.0 1 0.0 1
7 North Carolina 86.9%   3   0 - 0 0 - 0 22 - 8 14 - 6 +16.6      +9.4 7 +7.2 12 74.5 47 0.0 1 0.0 1
36 Miami (FL) 47.4%   11   0 - 0 0 - 0 19 - 10 11 - 9 +11.1      +6.9 25 +4.2 61 70.9 105 0.0 1 0.0 1
41 Wake Forest 47.7%   10   0 - 0 0 - 0 18 - 12 11 - 9 +10.8      +6.5 29 +4.2 57 70.1 126 0.0 1 0.0 1
43 Clemson 41.7%   0 - 0 0 - 0 18 - 12 11 - 9 +10.3      +5.7 43 +4.7 44 65.9 257 0.0 1 0.0 1
49 North Carolina St. 41.3%   0 - 0 0 - 0 18 - 12 10 - 10 +9.7      +5.6 46 +4.2 63 68.6 164 0.0 1 0.0 1
50 Louisville 42.9%   0 - 0 0 - 0 16 - 13 10 - 10 +9.5      +6.0 36 +3.6 79 73.2 58 0.0 1 0.0 1
52 Pittsburgh 40.5%   0 - 0 0 - 0 17 - 13 10 - 10 +9.5      +5.4 47 +4.1 64 64.9 285 0.0 1 0.0 1
56 Syracuse 37.9%   0 - 0 0 - 0 18 - 12 10 - 10 +9.3      +5.9 38 +3.4 81 75.3 35 0.0 1 0.0 1
57 Virginia 35.6%   0 - 0 0 - 0 18 - 12 10 - 10 +9.2      +1.7 125 +7.5 8 55.1 364 0.0 1 0.0 1
66 Notre Dame 29.0%   0 - 0 0 - 0 17 - 14 10 - 10 +8.4      +2.9 93 +5.5 32 62.2 338 0.0 1 0.0 1
74 Virginia Tech 29.2%   0 - 0 0 - 0 16 - 14 9 - 11 +7.6      +4.6 58 +3.0 91 68.6 166 0.0 1 0.0 1
78 SMU 26.3%   0 - 0 0 - 0 17 - 13 9 - 11 +7.4      +4.8 55 +2.6 98 68.4 178 0.0 1 0.0 1
80 Georgia Tech 23.3%   0 - 0 0 - 0 17 - 14 9 - 11 +7.3      +4.5 59 +2.8 94 68.6 165 0.0 1 0.0 1
83 Florida St. 23.5%   0 - 0 0 - 0 16 - 14 9 - 11 +7.2      +3.8 80 +3.3 84 75.6 33 0.0 1 0.0 1
93 Stanford 15.7%   0 - 0 0 - 0 17 - 14 8 - 12 +6.2      +3.8 81 +2.4 101 72.4 73 0.0 1 0.0 1
109 California 7.5%   0 - 0 0 - 0 14 - 17 7 - 13 +3.8      +2.0 119 +1.8 118 70.4 116 0.0 1 0.0 1
114 Boston College 5.6%   0 - 0 0 - 0 13 - 16 6 - 14 +3.4      +1.9 121 +1.5 129 67.4 214 0.0 1 0.0 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th 15th 16th 17th 18th
Duke 3.0 42.0 19.0 11.2 7.4 5.4 3.9 3.0 2.3 1.7 1.3 1.0 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0
North Carolina 3.9 27.8 18.6 12.7 9.6 7.3 5.4 4.2 3.3 2.7 2.1 1.9 1.4 1.1 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.1
Miami (FL) 7.4 7.2 8.6 8.6 8.6 8.2 7.6 6.8 6.7 5.8 5.4 5.0 4.6 4.2 3.7 3.1 2.8 1.9 1.4
Wake Forest 7.8 6.1 7.5 7.8 8.0 7.8 7.3 7.1 6.8 6.3 5.8 5.5 5.0 4.6 4.1 3.5 2.9 2.3 1.5
Clemson 7.7 6.3 8.1 8.2 8.1 7.7 7.4 7.0 6.5 6.0 5.8 5.1 4.8 4.3 4.1 3.5 3.1 2.4 1.6
North Carolina St. 8.5 4.3 6.2 6.8 7.2 7.0 6.9 7.0 6.8 6.6 6.2 5.9 5.5 5.3 5.0 4.4 3.8 3.1 2.0
Louisville 8.6 4.8 6.3 6.7 6.8 6.8 6.8 6.8 6.5 6.0 6.0 5.7 5.6 5.3 5.0 4.6 4.0 3.5 2.7
Pittsburgh 8.9 3.8 5.5 5.9 6.8 6.8 6.8 6.7 6.7 6.7 6.5 6.1 5.9 5.7 5.2 4.8 4.2 3.5 2.4
Syracuse 8.6 4.9 6.5 6.9 6.9 7.0 6.7 6.5 6.4 6.3 6.1 5.9 5.4 5.2 4.7 4.4 4.2 3.5 2.6
Virginia 8.7 4.2 6.0 6.3 6.8 6.9 6.9 6.9 6.7 6.5 6.2 6.0 5.8 5.3 5.0 4.6 4.1 3.5 2.5
Notre Dame 9.2 3.0 4.8 5.8 6.2 6.4 6.5 6.8 6.5 6.5 6.5 6.2 6.1 5.7 5.6 5.4 4.7 4.0 3.1
Virginia Tech 10.3 2.3 3.8 4.5 4.7 5.2 5.5 5.6 6.0 6.0 6.1 6.5 6.4 6.4 6.7 6.7 6.4 6.0 5.1
SMU 10.0 2.4 3.7 4.6 5.3 5.6 6.0 6.0 5.9 6.5 6.6 6.4 6.5 6.4 6.3 6.0 6.0 5.2 4.6
Georgia Tech 10.2 2.0 3.4 4.2 4.9 5.4 5.6 6.0 6.2 6.3 6.6 6.6 6.6 6.8 6.6 6.5 6.1 5.6 4.7
Florida St. 10.7 1.8 3.0 3.8 4.4 4.9 5.2 5.5 5.7 5.9 6.4 6.4 6.7 6.9 7.0 7.1 7.1 6.7 5.7
Stanford 11.1 1.2 2.5 3.2 3.7 4.3 4.9 5.3 5.7 5.9 6.3 6.7 6.8 7.1 7.5 7.5 7.5 7.5 6.6
California 13.0 0.3 0.9 1.3 1.9 2.3 2.8 3.2 3.8 4.5 5.1 5.9 6.4 7.3 8.3 9.3 10.6 12.3 13.7
Boston College 13.5 0.3 0.9 1.2 1.6 2.1 2.3 3.0 3.4 4.1 4.5 5.1 5.8 6.8 8.0 9.3 11.0 13.4 17.1




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
Duke 15 - 5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.1 1.8 2.9 4.2 6.2 8.1 10.7 12.5 14.0 14.0 11.9 8.0 3.5
North Carolina 14 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.3 2.2 3.3 4.6 6.4 8.1 10.7 12.0 12.9 12.4 10.6 8.0 4.6 1.6
Miami (FL) 11 - 9 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.7 2.7 4.2 5.9 7.4 8.7 10.0 10.7 10.4 10.3 8.8 7.1 4.9 3.2 1.7 0.7 0.1
Wake Forest 11 - 9 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.1 1.9 3.2 4.7 6.2 8.3 9.6 10.3 10.7 10.6 9.7 7.8 6.4 4.3 2.6 1.4 0.5 0.1
Clemson 11 - 9 0.1 0.1 0.5 1.1 2.0 3.3 4.5 6.3 7.7 9.3 9.9 10.8 10.5 9.3 8.4 6.5 4.6 3.0 1.5 0.7 0.2
North Carolina St. 10 - 10 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.4 2.5 4.1 5.9 7.5 8.8 10.3 10.5 10.6 10.0 8.6 7.0 5.1 3.5 1.9 0.9 0.3 0.1
Louisville 10 - 10 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.8 2.9 4.4 6.0 7.6 9.0 9.7 10.2 10.2 9.6 8.0 6.7 5.3 3.6 2.1 1.2 0.4 0.1
Pittsburgh 10 - 10 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.7 3.0 4.6 6.2 8.1 9.6 10.6 10.7 10.3 9.6 7.9 6.3 4.6 3.0 1.6 0.8 0.3 0.1
Syracuse 10 - 10 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.6 3.0 4.3 6.0 7.5 8.5 9.8 10.3 10.0 9.5 8.4 6.9 5.2 3.6 2.3 1.2 0.4 0.1
Virginia 10 - 10 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.7 2.9 4.3 6.1 7.8 9.1 9.9 10.8 10.5 9.7 8.3 6.5 4.9 3.3 1.8 0.9 0.4 0.1
Notre Dame 10 - 10 0.1 0.3 1.0 2.0 3.4 5.2 6.8 8.4 9.7 10.6 10.6 10.2 9.1 7.7 5.7 4.1 2.6 1.5 0.7 0.2 0.0
Virginia Tech 9 - 11 0.2 0.8 1.8 3.3 5.0 6.8 8.8 9.6 10.1 10.3 9.8 8.9 7.5 6.0 4.4 3.1 1.9 1.1 0.5 0.2 0.0
SMU 9 - 11 0.2 0.7 1.5 2.8 4.5 6.3 8.1 9.4 10.5 10.6 10.1 9.2 8.1 6.4 4.8 3.1 2.0 1.1 0.5 0.1 0.0
Georgia Tech 9 - 11 0.2 0.7 1.5 3.0 4.8 6.7 8.3 9.7 10.6 10.8 10.2 9.2 7.6 6.1 4.4 3.0 1.7 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0
Florida St. 9 - 11 0.2 0.9 2.0 3.9 5.6 7.5 9.2 10.1 10.6 10.3 9.7 8.6 6.9 5.4 3.8 2.5 1.5 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0
Stanford 8 - 12 0.3 1.0 2.2 4.2 6.3 8.3 9.8 10.8 10.7 10.6 9.4 8.0 6.6 4.6 3.2 2.0 1.1 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0
California 7 - 13 0.9 2.6 5.1 7.7 10.0 11.1 12.0 11.5 10.3 8.5 6.7 5.1 3.6 2.1 1.4 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
Boston College 6 - 14 1.2 3.7 6.4 8.8 10.8 11.7 11.7 10.7 9.1 7.7 6.3 4.5 3.1 1.8 1.3 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Duke 42.0% 30.9 8.6 2.0 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0
North Carolina 27.8% 19.1 6.6 1.7 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0
Miami (FL) 7.2% 4.0 2.2 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
Wake Forest 6.1% 3.5 1.9 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0
Clemson 6.3% 3.5 2.0 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
North Carolina St. 4.3% 2.3 1.3 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
Louisville 4.8% 2.6 1.5 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Pittsburgh 3.8% 2.1 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Syracuse 4.9% 2.7 1.5 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0
Virginia 4.2% 2.4 1.2 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0
Notre Dame 3.0% 1.6 1.0 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Virginia Tech 2.3% 1.2 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
SMU 2.4% 1.2 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Georgia Tech 2.0% 0.9 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Florida St. 1.8% 0.9 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Stanford 1.2% 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
California 0.3% 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Boston College 0.3% 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Duke 93.3% 31.3% 62.0% 2   24.5 18.6 12.0 9.5 7.2 5.5 4.8 3.9 3.0 2.4 1.7 0.3 0.0 6.7 90.2%
North Carolina 86.9% 21.8% 65.1% 3   14.5 13.9 11.1 9.5 7.9 6.5 6.8 5.4 4.4 3.5 2.8 0.5 0.0 13.1 83.3%
Miami (FL) 47.4% 5.8% 41.6% 11   1.5 2.3 3.0 3.4 3.8 3.8 5.0 5.3 6.0 6.3 6.2 0.9 0.0 52.6 44.2%
Wake Forest 47.7% 5.1% 42.6% 10   1.4 2.3 3.0 3.7 3.9 4.3 5.4 5.8 6.0 5.7 5.4 0.9 0.0 52.3 44.9%
Clemson 41.7% 4.8% 36.9% 1.1 1.9 2.7 3.1 3.5 3.9 4.4 4.6 5.3 5.5 5.1 0.8 0.0 0.0 58.3 38.8%
North Carolina St. 41.3% 4.0% 37.3% 1.0 1.8 2.3 3.1 3.5 4.2 4.2 4.8 5.0 5.3 5.2 1.0 0.0 58.7 38.8%
Louisville 42.9% 3.8% 39.1% 1.2 2.0 2.7 3.2 4.1 4.4 4.4 4.9 5.0 5.2 4.8 0.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 57.1 40.6%
Pittsburgh 40.5% 3.8% 36.7% 0.9 1.6 2.3 3.1 3.5 3.8 4.2 4.7 5.1 5.1 5.1 0.9 0.0 0.0 59.5 38.1%
Syracuse 37.9% 3.8% 34.2% 1.0 1.8 2.4 2.8 3.3 3.6 4.4 5.0 4.9 4.4 3.8 0.5 0.0 62.1 35.5%
Virginia 35.6% 3.4% 32.2% 0.7 1.2 1.8 2.3 2.6 2.9 3.8 4.5 5.1 5.2 4.9 0.7 0.0 0.0 64.4 33.3%
Notre Dame 29.0% 2.7% 26.3% 0.4 0.7 1.2 1.4 2.0 2.4 3.0 3.6 4.1 4.6 4.8 0.7 0.0 0.0 71.0 27.0%
Virginia Tech 29.2% 2.1% 27.1% 0.4 0.8 1.3 1.7 2.0 2.8 2.8 3.5 4.0 4.4 4.7 0.8 0.0 70.8 27.7%
SMU 26.3% 1.9% 24.3% 0.4 0.6 1.0 1.4 1.7 2.3 2.6 3.0 3.5 4.2 4.7 0.7 0.0 73.7 24.8%
Georgia Tech 23.3% 1.9% 21.3% 0.2 0.5 0.8 1.0 1.4 1.7 2.3 2.8 3.5 4.0 4.3 0.7 0.0 76.7 21.7%
Florida St. 23.5% 1.7% 21.9% 0.2 0.4 0.7 1.2 1.4 1.7 2.2 2.7 3.3 4.1 4.5 0.9 0.0 0.0 76.5 22.2%
Stanford 15.7% 1.2% 14.5% 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 0.9 1.4 1.8 2.4 2.9 3.5 0.6 0.0 0.0 84.3 14.7%
California 7.5% 0.4% 7.1% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.8 1.2 1.6 1.7 0.3 0.0 0.0 92.5 7.1%
Boston College 5.6% 0.4% 5.2% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.9 1.1 1.6 0.3 0.0 94.4 5.2%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Duke 93.3% 1.6% 92.6% 79.7% 55.0% 34.7% 20.8% 12.0% 6.8%
North Carolina 86.9% 2.8% 85.7% 69.3% 43.3% 25.1% 13.7% 7.4% 3.9%
Miami (FL) 47.4% 5.7% 44.7% 28.5% 12.8% 5.9% 2.6% 1.2% 0.5%
Wake Forest 47.7% 5.3% 44.9% 28.3% 12.6% 5.7% 2.5% 1.0% 0.4%
Clemson 41.7% 4.7% 39.4% 24.4% 10.6% 4.8% 2.1% 0.9% 0.4%
North Carolina St. 41.3% 5.1% 38.6% 23.2% 10.0% 4.4% 1.8% 0.8% 0.2%
Louisville 42.9% 4.9% 40.3% 24.1% 10.2% 4.3% 1.8% 0.7% 0.3%
Pittsburgh 40.5% 5.0% 37.9% 22.5% 9.4% 3.9% 1.6% 0.6% 0.2%
Syracuse 37.9% 3.4% 36.0% 21.6% 9.2% 3.9% 1.6% 0.6% 0.2%
Virginia 35.6% 4.6% 33.2% 19.5% 8.0% 3.5% 1.5% 0.6% 0.3%
Notre Dame 29.0% 4.5% 26.7% 15.2% 5.7% 2.4% 1.0% 0.3% 0.1%
Virginia Tech 29.2% 4.6% 26.6% 14.6% 5.5% 2.1% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1%
SMU 26.3% 4.4% 23.9% 12.9% 4.7% 1.9% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1%
Georgia Tech 23.3% 4.1% 21.0% 11.3% 4.0% 1.6% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1%
Florida St. 23.5% 4.6% 21.1% 11.2% 3.9% 1.5% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1%
Stanford 15.7% 3.5% 13.9% 7.3% 2.5% 1.0% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0%
California 7.5% 1.7% 6.6% 3.0% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Boston College 5.6% 1.7% 4.7% 2.2% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 6.8 0.0 0.8 4.3 13.4 24.6 27.3 19.0 8.1 2.0 0.4 0.0
1st Round 100.0% 6.4 0.0 0.1 1.4 7.0 18.0 27.4 25.2 14.4 5.1 1.1 0.1 0.0
2nd Round 99.9% 4.2 0.1 1.4 8.0 21.4 29.6 23.7 11.6 3.5 0.7 0.1 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 94.7% 2.1 5.3 25.2 36.5 23.2 8.1 1.5 0.2 0.0 0.0
Elite Eight 73.4% 1.1 26.6 45.3 22.9 4.7 0.5 0.0
Final Four 46.2% 0.5 53.8 38.7 7.1 0.4 0.0
Final Game 26.0% 0.3 74.0 24.7 1.3
Champion 13.8% 0.1 86.2 13.8