Atlantic Coast
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
2 Duke 99.9%   1   9 - 2 1 - 0 26 - 5 18 - 2 +21.0      +9.5 10 +11.5 2 66.4 249 +19.7 11 +28.4 1
22 North Carolina 71.9%   9   6 - 5 1 - 0 20 - 12 14 - 6 +14.1      +8.3 15 +5.9 35 80.8 6 +10.3 58 +15.8 8
33 Pittsburgh 76.0%   9   9 - 2 1 - 0 22 - 9 13 - 7 +12.4      +6.6 37 +5.8 37 68.7 187 +15.6 27 +20.5 5
35 Clemson 63.0%   10   9 - 3 1 - 0 22 - 9 14 - 6 +12.3      +6.3 41 +6.0 33 64.6 290 +12.9 42 +24.2 2
49 SMU 40.7%   9 - 2 1 - 0 21 - 10 12 - 8 +10.3      +6.4 39 +3.9 77 73.0 76 +11.3 50 +18.4 6
51 Louisville 38.1%   6 - 5 0 - 1 18 - 13 11 - 9 +10.2      +5.6 48 +4.6 59 71.9 97 +9.8 62 +2.8 10
63 Florida St. 16.8%   9 - 3 0 - 1 19 - 12 10 - 10 +8.8      +3.3 88 +5.5 43 75.6 37 +8.3 74 -5.1 13
78 North Carolina St. 6.8%   7 - 4 1 - 0 17 - 14 10 - 10 +7.1      +3.6 84 +3.5 86 64.6 289 +5.9 94 +21.0 3
83 Notre Dame 4.9%   6 - 5 1 - 0 16 - 15 10 - 10 +6.8      +3.8 81 +3.0 97 63.3 318 +3.8 110 +17.9 7
86 Wake Forest 11.8%   9 - 3 1 - 0 17 - 14 9 - 11 +6.5      +1.2 138 +5.3 46 66.4 252 +12.0 46 +12.5 9
90 Virginia 4.7%   6 - 5 0 - 1 16 - 15 9 - 11 +6.2      -0.6 188 +6.8 22 55.1 364 +6.6 92 -1.9 12
93 Miami (FL) 1.0%   4 - 7 0 - 1 13 - 18 8 - 12 +6.0      +7.7 25 -1.7 226 65.7 265 -6.5 276 -5.9 17
94 Stanford 5.2%   9 - 2 1 - 0 18 - 13 9 - 11 +6.0      +4.5 62 +1.5 126 69.2 172 +7.4 86 +20.9 4
95 Syracuse 2.6%   5 - 5 0 - 1 14 - 17 8 - 12 +5.7      +4.4 65 +1.3 129 74.7 50 +2.8 123 -5.4 14
111 Georgia Tech 0.3%   5 - 6 0 - 1 13 - 18 7 - 13 +3.6      +1.0 144 +2.6 106 73.3 69 -3.0 218 +1.9 11
118 California 0.4%   7 - 4 0 - 1 14 - 17 6 - 14 +2.7      +4.6 60 -1.9 231 70.5 137 +2.4 133 -12.2 18
126 Virginia Tech 0.1%   5 - 6 0 - 1 11 - 20 6 - 14 +2.3      +0.5 153 +1.8 118 65.7 266 -2.9 213 -5.8 16
152 Boston College 0.0%   7 - 4 0 - 1 13 - 18 5 - 15 +0.3      -0.1 176 +0.3 156 67.4 223 +2.5 130 -5.7 15





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th 15th 16th 17th 18th
Duke 1.3 81.8 12.0 3.7 1.4 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
North Carolina 4.1 10.1 22.9 18.3 14.0 10.3 7.5 5.4 3.7 2.7 1.9 1.3 0.9 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Pittsburgh 4.7 6.3 19.4 17.4 14.0 11.0 8.5 6.6 4.8 3.7 2.6 2.0 1.3 1.0 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0
Clemson 4.2 9.1 23.3 18.8 13.9 10.2 7.4 5.3 3.7 2.7 2.0 1.4 1.0 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0
SMU 5.7 4.5 12.9 13.8 13.0 11.4 9.6 8.2 6.6 5.3 4.2 3.3 2.4 1.8 1.4 0.8 0.6 0.3 0.1
Louisville 6.9 1.6 8.5 10.5 10.9 10.4 9.9 9.0 7.8 6.8 6.1 4.9 3.9 3.2 2.4 1.8 1.1 0.7 0.3
Florida St. 8.5 0.7 3.9 5.8 7.4 8.4 8.7 9.2 8.9 8.7 7.8 7.2 6.0 5.1 4.2 3.4 2.5 1.6 0.6
North Carolina St. 8.7 0.7 3.7 5.6 6.9 7.8 8.6 8.7 8.4 8.5 7.7 7.2 6.4 5.7 4.9 3.8 2.8 1.8 0.8
Notre Dame 8.5 0.7 3.7 5.6 7.3 8.1 8.9 9.2 8.9 8.4 7.9 7.1 6.2 5.4 4.3 3.3 2.6 1.6 0.8
Wake Forest 10.1 0.3 1.6 2.7 4.2 5.6 6.5 7.6 8.1 8.3 8.1 8.4 8.0 8.0 7.0 5.9 4.9 3.2 1.5
Virginia 10.6 0.2 1.3 2.2 3.6 4.8 5.8 6.8 7.4 7.6 8.2 8.4 8.3 8.3 7.5 6.9 5.7 4.5 2.5
Miami (FL) 11.1 0.2 0.7 1.7 2.6 3.7 5.3 6.1 6.7 7.9 8.2 8.7 8.5 8.6 8.0 7.7 6.6 5.5 3.4
Stanford 9.4 0.2 2.1 3.8 5.3 6.5 7.6 8.3 9.0 8.9 8.7 8.2 7.3 6.9 6.0 4.6 3.5 2.1 1.0
Syracuse 11.1 0.2 1.0 1.8 2.9 3.9 4.8 5.9 6.7 7.8 8.0 8.3 8.7 8.6 8.5 7.4 6.6 5.2 3.7
Georgia Tech 12.6 0.0 0.3 0.7 1.3 2.1 2.6 3.8 4.5 5.7 6.6 7.5 8.7 9.6 10.0 10.7 10.2 8.8 6.9
California 13.9 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.0 1.5 2.2 2.9 3.8 4.6 5.9 7.2 8.5 10.1 11.9 13.7 14.0 11.7
Virginia Tech 14.2 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.9 1.3 2.0 2.7 3.4 4.2 5.1 6.6 7.9 9.3 11.1 13.5 15.5 15.7
Boston College 15.3 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.9 1.4 1.9 2.5 3.5 4.4 6.0 7.8 10.4 14.1 18.8 27.1




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
Duke 18 - 2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.2 2.8 5.9 11.3 18.6 24.3 23.2 12.2
North Carolina 14 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.5 3.0 5.3 8.5 12.2 15.0 16.0 15.0 11.2 7.1 3.2 1.1 0.2
Pittsburgh 13 - 7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.1 2.3 4.5 7.1 10.3 13.2 15.6 15.0 12.9 9.1 5.2 2.4 0.7 0.1
Clemson 14 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.7 3.2 5.5 8.4 12.0 14.6 16.0 14.4 11.0 7.4 3.5 1.1 0.2
SMU 12 - 8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.3 2.4 4.3 7.2 10.2 12.3 14.2 14.2 12.3 9.6 6.3 3.3 1.4 0.4 0.1
Louisville 11 - 9 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 1.2 2.4 4.5 7.0 10.1 12.4 13.6 13.8 12.5 9.8 6.3 3.4 1.6 0.5 0.1
Florida St. 10 - 10 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.3 2.6 4.9 7.7 10.6 12.9 14.9 13.5 11.7 8.8 5.7 3.1 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.0
North Carolina St. 10 - 10 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.4 3.0 5.6 8.5 11.2 13.2 14.1 13.1 10.9 8.4 5.1 3.0 1.4 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0
Notre Dame 10 - 10 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.1 2.7 4.8 7.7 11.1 13.3 14.3 13.7 11.6 8.3 5.6 3.1 1.5 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0
Wake Forest 9 - 11 0.0 0.3 1.2 2.6 5.1 8.3 11.9 13.9 14.4 13.4 11.0 8.0 5.2 2.6 1.3 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0
Virginia 9 - 11 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.8 3.7 6.4 9.4 12.7 13.7 14.3 12.4 9.9 7.0 4.2 2.3 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
Miami (FL) 8 - 12 0.0 0.3 0.8 2.3 4.3 7.4 10.7 13.3 14.5 14.2 12.0 9.0 5.8 3.2 1.6 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
Stanford 9 - 11 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.7 3.8 6.6 10.2 12.9 14.8 14.9 12.7 9.4 6.3 3.6 1.6 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0
Syracuse 8 - 12 0.0 0.2 0.8 2.3 4.5 7.4 10.6 13.3 14.6 13.8 11.7 8.6 6.0 3.4 1.7 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Georgia Tech 7 - 13 0.1 0.5 1.8 4.3 7.8 11.5 14.2 15.2 14.1 11.7 8.0 5.3 3.0 1.4 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
California 6 - 14 0.3 1.3 3.8 7.5 11.8 14.6 16.1 14.2 11.8 8.3 5.2 2.9 1.3 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0
Virginia Tech 6 - 14 0.4 2.3 5.0 9.1 12.7 14.9 15.1 13.3 10.6 7.0 4.9 2.5 1.2 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0
Boston College 5 - 15 1.1 4.1 8.9 13.5 16.0 16.4 13.9 10.8 6.9 4.3 2.4 1.1 0.5 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Duke 81.8% 69.7 10.1 1.7 0.2 0.0 0.0
North Carolina 10.1% 5.3 3.6 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0
Pittsburgh 6.3% 2.9 2.6 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0
Clemson 9.1% 4.5 3.5 0.9 0.1 0.0 0.0
SMU 4.5% 1.9 1.8 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0
Louisville 1.6% 0.6 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0
Florida St. 0.7% 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
North Carolina St. 0.7% 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0
Notre Dame 0.7% 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Wake Forest 0.3% 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
Virginia 0.2% 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Miami (FL) 0.2% 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Stanford 0.2% 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Syracuse 0.2% 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Georgia Tech 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
California 0.0% 0.0
Virginia Tech 0.0% 0.0 0.0
Boston College


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Duke 99.9% 55.8% 44.1% 1   42.4 30.3 13.1 7.3 3.4 1.8 0.9 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 99.9%
North Carolina 71.9% 12.6% 59.3% 9   1.0 2.0 3.6 5.8 7.0 7.9 9.7 10.3 9.5 8.2 6.5 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 28.1 67.8%
Pittsburgh 76.0% 8.0% 68.1% 9   0.6 1.4 2.9 4.8 6.5 8.0 9.8 11.1 12.2 11.1 7.3 0.3 24.0 74.0%
Clemson 63.0% 7.9% 55.1% 10   0.2 0.7 1.5 2.8 4.1 5.3 7.1 9.4 11.1 11.6 8.9 0.4 37.0 59.8%
SMU 40.7% 4.4% 36.3% 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.0 1.3 2.1 3.3 4.9 6.7 9.4 10.4 0.7 59.3 37.9%
Louisville 38.1% 3.7% 34.4% 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 1.2 1.9 3.2 5.3 7.0 9.2 8.4 0.7 0.0 0.0 61.9 35.7%
Florida St. 16.8% 1.9% 14.9% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.8 1.4 2.5 4.2 6.3 0.7 0.0 83.2 15.1%
North Carolina St. 6.8% 1.2% 5.6% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.9 1.9 2.8 0.4 0.0 93.2 5.7%
Notre Dame 4.9% 1.1% 3.7% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 1.4 1.9 0.2 0.0 0.0 95.1 3.8%
Wake Forest 11.8% 0.7% 11.1% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.9 1.8 3.0 4.8 0.6 0.0 88.2 11.2%
Virginia 4.7% 0.5% 4.2% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.2 2.1 0.3 95.3 4.2%
Miami (FL) 1.0% 0.6% 0.4% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.0 0.4%
Stanford 5.2% 0.6% 4.6% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 1.3 2.2 0.3 94.8 4.6%
Syracuse 2.6% 0.6% 2.1% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.9 0.1 0.0 0.0 97.4 2.1%
Georgia Tech 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.7 0.1%
California 0.4% 0.1% 0.3% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.6 0.3%
Virginia Tech 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9 0.0%
Boston College 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Duke 99.9% 0.0% 99.9% 96.4% 74.3% 50.8% 32.1% 19.2% 10.9%
North Carolina 71.9% 6.4% 69.2% 46.0% 20.1% 9.1% 3.9% 1.7% 0.7%
Pittsburgh 76.0% 7.2% 72.3% 41.9% 15.9% 6.3% 2.4% 0.9% 0.3%
Clemson 63.0% 8.7% 58.8% 33.2% 11.6% 4.6% 1.7% 0.6% 0.2%
SMU 40.7% 10.4% 35.3% 17.2% 5.4% 1.9% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1%
Louisville 38.1% 8.6% 33.8% 16.5% 4.8% 1.7% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0%
Florida St. 16.8% 6.4% 13.5% 6.0% 1.6% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
North Carolina St. 6.8% 2.7% 5.3% 2.2% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Notre Dame 4.9% 1.7% 4.0% 1.7% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Wake Forest 11.8% 4.9% 8.9% 3.2% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Virginia 4.7% 2.2% 3.5% 1.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Miami (FL) 1.0% 0.2% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Stanford 5.2% 2.1% 4.0% 1.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Syracuse 2.6% 0.7% 2.3% 0.9% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Georgia Tech 0.3% 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
California 0.4% 0.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Virginia Tech 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Boston College 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 4.4 0.1 2.0 14.8 35.8 33.2 12.2 1.7 0.1
1st Round 100.0% 4.1 0.2 3.9 21.9 39.9 26.5 6.9 0.7 0.0
2nd Round 99.8% 2.7 0.2 9.5 33.7 37.6 16.0 2.8 0.2 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 88.9% 1.4 11.1 49.4 32.0 6.9 0.6 0.0
Elite Eight 63.7% 0.8 36.3 52.5 10.5 0.6 0.0
Final Four 39.1% 0.4 60.9 36.7 2.4 0.0
Final Game 22.5% 0.2 77.5 22.2 0.3
Champion 12.2% 0.1 87.8 12.2