Atlantic Coast
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
1 Duke 100.0%   1   16 - 2 8 - 0 28 - 3 19 - 1 +23.8      +12.5 4 +11.3 3 64.9 270 +22.6 2 +25.1 1
26 North Carolina 67.1%   10   12 - 7 5 - 2 20 - 12 13 - 7 +13.8      +6.7 37 +7.0 23 77.8 17 +12.7 39 +12.9 6
27 Louisville 90.5%   8   14 - 5 7 - 1 23 - 8 16 - 4 +13.7      +7.9 24 +5.8 46 71.6 99 +15.6 24 +22.6 2
30 Clemson 70.0%   9   15 - 4 7 - 1 23 - 8 15 - 5 +13.1      +7.1 32 +6.1 40 62.5 333 +14.3 30 +19.4 3
37 SMU 51.2%   11   14 - 4 5 - 2 23 - 8 14 - 6 +12.3      +8.1 22 +4.1 68 73.7 61 +12.1 43 +13.7 5
40 Pittsburgh 50.9%   11   12 - 6 3 - 4 20 - 11 11 - 9 +11.8      +7.6 26 +4.1 69 68.2 196 +11.6 45 +6.9 9
58 Florida St. 12.7%   13 - 5 4 - 3 20 - 11 11 - 9 +9.6      +4.2 71 +5.4 51 75.2 36 +9.7 56 +8.9 8
59 Wake Forest 22.0%   14 - 4 6 - 1 20 - 11 12 - 8 +9.4      +2.8 103 +6.6 31 67.6 211 +14.5 28 +16.1 4
77 Notre Dame 0.8%   8 - 10 2 - 5 15 - 16 9 - 11 +7.3      +6.0 47 +1.2 133 62.8 327 +1.5 144 +0.8 15
87 Stanford 3.3%   12 - 6 4 - 3 18 - 13 10 - 10 +6.5      +5.4 54 +1.0 136 67.8 207 +8.4 68 +11.8 7
93 North Carolina St. 0.3%   9 - 9 2 - 5 14 - 17 7 - 13 +6.1      +3.9 80 +2.1 108 62.5 332 +2.3 129 +1.1 14
103 Syracuse 0.1%   9 - 9 3 - 4 14 - 17 8 - 12 +4.0      +1.9 128 +2.0 112 74.2 52 +4.2 105 +4.9 11
104 Georgia Tech 0.0%   8 - 11 2 - 6 13 - 18 7 - 13 +3.8      +1.0 146 +2.8 96 73.1 69 -0.8 187 +2.6 12
107 Virginia 0.1%   8 - 10 1 - 6 13 - 18 6 - 14 +3.5      -1.0 204 +4.5 59 55.1 363 +3.7 112 -0.5 16
118 California 0.1%   9 - 9 2 - 5 14 - 17 7 - 13 +2.7      +3.7 85 -0.9 208 70.3 133 +2.8 120 +1.7 13
137 Virginia Tech 0.0%   8 - 10 3 - 4 12 - 19 7 - 13 +1.7      +1.7 135 0.0 173 64.6 285 +0.9 156 +5.2 10
155 Miami (FL) 0.0%   4 - 14 0 - 7 8 - 23 4 - 16 +0.6      +5.6 52 -5.0 319 68.0 201 -9.9 318 -8.7 18
195 Boston College 0.0%   9 - 9 1 - 6 12 - 19 4 - 16 -1.6      -0.2 183 -1.4 223 67.1 227 +0.5 167 -3.9 17





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th 15th 16th 17th 18th
Duke 1.1 94.8 4.2 0.8 0.2 0.0
North Carolina 4.9 0.8 6.8 15.4 22.9 21.4 15.3 9.1 4.8 2.2 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0
Louisville 2.5 8.4 53.8 22.4 9.3 3.7 1.5 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.1
Clemson 3.1 5.7 33.1 31.9 15.8 8.1 3.4 1.4 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0
SMU 4.3 0.9 16.1 20.3 23.3 16.5 9.9 6.1 3.4 2.1 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
Pittsburgh 7.0 0.0 0.9 3.7 8.5 13.1 16.5 17.4 16.1 10.7 6.2 3.6 1.8 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.0
Florida St. 7.2 0.0 1.1 3.5 7.3 11.4 16.3 18.0 15.3 12.5 6.9 3.8 1.9 1.1 0.6 0.2 0.1
Wake Forest 6.0 0.3 3.6 7.6 14.4 17.8 19.3 14.4 9.8 6.8 3.4 1.6 0.7 0.2 0.1
Notre Dame 10.0 0.0 0.3 1.1 2.5 5.3 8.4 11.7 14.2 15.8 13.7 9.9 6.9 4.5 3.2 1.7 0.7 0.1
Stanford 8.1 0.3 1.2 3.9 7.7 12.0 15.3 17.1 16.7 10.8 6.8 4.2 2.2 1.1 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0
North Carolina St. 12.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.4 2.9 4.9 8.0 11.6 13.6 12.9 13.4 12.0 8.8 6.4 2.5 1.0
Syracuse 11.5 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.8 1.7 3.5 5.7 9.1 13.6 15.0 14.8 12.2 10.0 7.0 4.4 1.7 0.4
Georgia Tech 12.4 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.7 3.2 6.9 10.4 12.6 14.6 14.0 12.8 11.1 7.5 3.4 1.0
Virginia 13.9 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.1 2.7 5.3 7.8 10.0 13.0 13.9 15.6 16.4 8.8 4.4
California 13.1 0.1 0.1 0.5 1.2 2.2 4.3 7.7 10.8 12.7 13.9 14.5 14.0 11.0 5.4 1.7
Virginia Tech 12.6 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.5 3.3 5.8 9.2 11.9 13.4 14.5 13.2 11.5 9.5 4.0 1.0
Miami (FL) 16.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.9 1.7 3.2 5.1 8.2 15.0 29.5 35.7
Boston College 16.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.2 2.0 3.6 5.9 9.0 16.3 32.5 28.5




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
Duke 19 - 1 0.1 0.5 1.8 7.1 19.4 36.2 35.0
North Carolina 13 - 7 0.0 0.2 1.2 4.0 10.4 18.0 22.4 21.5 14.1 6.2 1.9 0.2
Louisville 16 - 4 0.1 0.5 1.8 4.9 10.7 18.0 23.9 22.5 13.6 4.0
Clemson 15 - 5 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.2 4.0 9.6 16.6 22.8 22.8 15.1 6.4 1.3
SMU 14 - 6 0.0 0.1 0.2 1.3 3.2 7.3 12.6 17.3 20.5 18.0 12.5 5.6 1.5
Pittsburgh 11 - 9 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.5 5.0 10.3 16.3 21.7 19.4 15.1 7.4 2.4 0.4
Florida St. 11 - 9 0.0 0.1 0.6 2.3 5.5 11.3 17.4 20.9 19.3 13.1 6.9 2.4 0.5 0.0
Wake Forest 12 - 8 0.4 1.8 5.5 10.9 17.1 20.7 19.3 13.4 7.4 2.8 0.6 0.2 0.0
Notre Dame 9 - 11 0.0 0.3 0.9 3.0 7.1 12.8 18.4 19.5 16.6 12.4 6.2 2.1 0.6 0.1
Stanford 10 - 10 0.0 0.2 1.4 4.6 9.2 16.4 21.3 20.0 14.9 8.4 2.9 0.7 0.1
North Carolina St. 7 - 13 0.3 1.4 4.6 10.3 16.3 19.9 18.7 14.4 8.7 4.0 1.1 0.3 0.1
Syracuse 8 - 12 0.4 2.3 7.3 15.2 20.6 20.9 16.5 9.7 4.9 1.7 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0
Georgia Tech 7 - 13 0.2 1.4 5.3 11.9 18.9 22.0 19.0 12.2 6.3 2.2 0.6 0.1
Virginia 6 - 14 0.3 2.1 6.2 12.4 19.5 21.4 18.2 11.2 6.1 1.9 0.6 0.1
California 7 - 13 0.4 2.9 9.0 15.7 20.6 21.2 15.8 8.9 3.9 1.3 0.4 0.1
Virginia Tech 7 - 13 1.6 6.8 13.7 19.7 21.1 17.2 10.8 5.6 2.4 0.8 0.3 0.0
Miami (FL) 4 - 16 2.1 8.5 17.7 23.4 21.5 14.6 7.9 3.0 1.0 0.2 0.0
Boston College 4 - 16 5.6 16.9 23.4 24.0 15.4 9.0 3.7 1.6 0.3 0.1 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Duke 94.8% 85.5 8.2 1.1 0.1
North Carolina 0.8% 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.0
Louisville 8.4% 2.7 4.9 0.8 0.1
Clemson 5.7% 1.7 3.1 0.9 0.1
SMU 0.9% 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.1
Pittsburgh 0.0% 0.0
Florida St. 0.0% 0.0
Wake Forest 0.3% 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
Notre Dame
Stanford
North Carolina St.
Syracuse
Georgia Tech
Virginia
California
Virginia Tech
Miami (FL)
Boston College


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Duke 100.0% 68.1% 31.9% 1   66.4 27.3 5.0 1.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
North Carolina 67.1% 6.3% 60.9% 10   0.1 0.1 0.4 1.3 2.5 4.4 8.0 11.9 13.9 13.4 10.6 0.6 32.9 64.9%
Louisville 90.5% 7.8% 82.7% 8   0.2 0.8 2.3 5.9 9.2 13.7 17.3 17.7 13.2 7.6 2.8 0.0 9.5 89.7%
Clemson 70.0% 6.6% 63.4% 9   0.1 0.2 0.7 1.7 3.4 5.7 8.8 12.1 14.4 13.8 8.9 0.3 30.0 67.8%
SMU 51.2% 4.8% 46.4% 11   0.0 0.2 0.3 0.9 1.3 2.5 4.1 6.4 9.4 12.5 13.1 0.6 48.8 48.8%
Pittsburgh 50.9% 2.9% 48.0% 11   0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.8 2.3 3.9 6.9 9.4 13.7 12.7 0.6 49.1 49.4%
Florida St. 12.7% 1.2% 11.5% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.5 3.0 6.5 0.6 87.3 11.6%
Wake Forest 22.0% 1.4% 20.6% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 1.0 3.2 5.6 10.7 0.9 78.0 20.9%
Notre Dame 0.8% 0.4% 0.4% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.2 0.4%
Stanford 3.3% 0.3% 3.0% 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 2.0 0.2 96.7 3.0%
North Carolina St. 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 99.7 0.2%
Syracuse 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9 0.0%
Georgia Tech 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0 0.0%
Virginia 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 100.0 0.0%
California 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0 0.0%
Virginia Tech 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%
Miami (FL) 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Boston College 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Duke 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 99.3% 84.4% 64.8% 45.4% 30.8% 19.9%
North Carolina 67.1% 11.7% 62.0% 35.0% 11.3% 4.4% 1.6% 0.5% 0.2%
Louisville 90.5% 3.0% 88.9% 54.6% 18.7% 6.8% 2.2% 0.7% 0.3%
Clemson 70.0% 9.5% 65.5% 36.0% 11.0% 4.2% 1.4% 0.4% 0.2%
SMU 51.2% 13.7% 44.8% 22.5% 6.7% 2.4% 0.8% 0.2% 0.1%
Pittsburgh 50.9% 14.0% 44.2% 21.5% 5.9% 2.1% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0%
Florida St. 12.7% 6.9% 9.0% 3.7% 0.8% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Wake Forest 22.0% 11.8% 15.6% 6.1% 1.5% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Notre Dame 0.8% 0.3% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Stanford 3.3% 2.0% 2.2% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
North Carolina St. 0.3% 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Syracuse 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Georgia Tech 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Virginia 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
California 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Virginia Tech 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Miami (FL) 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Boston College 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 4.7 0.0 0.8 9.6 31.7 38.2 16.8 2.7 0.1
1st Round 100.0% 4.3 0.1 2.0 16.3 39.5 31.6 9.7 0.9
2nd Round 100.0% 2.8 0.0 7.7 31.5 38.3 18.9 3.4 0.3 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 93.1% 1.4 6.9 53.7 32.2 6.7 0.6 0.0
Elite Eight 72.7% 0.9 27.4 60.6 11.4 0.7
Final Four 49.7% 0.5 50.3 47.3 2.4 0.0
Final Game 32.6% 0.3 67.4 32.3 0.3
Champion 20.6% 0.2 79.4 20.6