Appalachian St.
Sun Belt
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-0.8#173
Expected Predictive Rating-2.8#211
Pace63.5#316
Improvement+1.5#85

Offense
Total Offense-2.7#244
First Shot-3.5#283
After Offensive Rebound+0.8#136
Layup/Dunks-1.5#237
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.1#156
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.3#244
Freethrows+0.2#171
Improvement+1.2#90

Defense
Total Defense+1.9#117
First Shot+2.2#108
After Offensive Rebounds-0.3#218
Layups/Dunks-2.3#266
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.3#282
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.7#75
Freethrows+3.1#17
Improvement+0.3#159
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 6.6% 8.4% 4.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.1 13.9 14.4
.500 or above 59.9% 73.0% 47.1%
.500 or above in Conference 70.7% 82.5% 59.1%
Conference Champion 5.5% 9.1% 2.0%
Last Place in Conference 1.4% 0.6% 2.3%
First Four0.2% 0.1% 0.3%
First Round6.5% 8.3% 4.7%
Second Round0.4% 0.6% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Troy (Home) - 49.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 30 - 4
Quad 34 - 54 - 9
Quad 411 - 515 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 209   Miami (OH) L 63-77 67%     0 - 1 -19.3 -12.9 -6.0
  Nov 10, 2024 36   @ Wisconsin L 56-87 8%     0 - 2 -15.7 -11.3 -4.7
  Nov 19, 2024 270   Queens W 65-53 78%     1 - 2 +3.3 -8.1 +12.2
  Nov 24, 2024 222   William & Mary W 79-76 69%     2 - 2 -3.0 +3.2 -6.0
  Nov 27, 2024 127   Sam Houston St. W 66-63 39%     3 - 2 +5.2 -3.1 +8.4
  Nov 29, 2024 223   Colgate W 72-50 59%     4 - 2 +18.8 +11.2 +11.7
  Nov 30, 2024 134   @ UNC Wilmington L 61-76 30%     4 - 3 -10.5 -1.5 -11.4
  Dec 14, 2024 135   High Point L 59-65 42%     4 - 4 -4.6 -17.4 +12.9
  Dec 18, 2024 291   @ Louisiana L 62-68 62%     4 - 5 0 - 1 -9.9 -9.5 -0.8
  Dec 20, 2024 80   @ North Texas L 64-68 16%     4 - 6 +6.0 +14.4 -9.4
  Jan 02, 2025 125   Troy L 66-67 50%    
  Jan 04, 2025 139   Texas St. W 66-65 54%    
  Jan 08, 2025 268   Coastal Carolina W 67-59 77%    
  Jan 11, 2025 115   James Madison L 67-68 46%    
  Jan 16, 2025 315   @ Old Dominion W 71-66 67%    
  Jan 18, 2025 115   @ James Madison L 64-71 26%    
  Jan 23, 2025 109   @ Arkansas St. L 64-72 25%    
  Jan 25, 2025 329   @ Louisiana Monroe W 68-62 71%    
  Jan 29, 2025 315   Old Dominion W 74-63 84%    
  Feb 01, 2025 263   Georgia St. W 73-65 76%    
  Feb 05, 2025 283   Southern Miss W 72-63 79%    
  Feb 13, 2025 268   @ Coastal Carolina W 64-62 57%    
  Feb 15, 2025 263   @ Georgia St. W 70-68 56%    
  Feb 20, 2025 234   Georgia Southern W 73-67 70%    
  Feb 22, 2025 190   Marshall W 71-67 62%    
  Feb 25, 2025 234   @ Georgia Southern L 70-71 50%    
  Feb 28, 2025 190   @ Marshall L 68-70 41%    
Projected Record 14 - 13 10 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.2 2.0 1.5 0.6 0.1 5.5 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 1.9 3.5 2.2 0.4 0.0 8.3 2nd
3rd 0.2 2.2 5.0 3.0 0.4 0.0 10.8 3rd
4th 0.1 1.8 5.6 3.9 0.5 0.0 11.8 4th
5th 0.0 1.1 5.4 4.8 0.8 0.0 12.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.5 3.9 5.7 1.4 0.1 11.6 6th
7th 0.2 2.4 5.3 2.1 0.1 10.2 7th
8th 0.1 1.1 4.7 2.7 0.2 8.9 8th
9th 0.0 0.4 3.0 3.1 0.4 0.0 6.9 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 1.6 3.0 0.8 0.0 5.5 10th
11th 0.1 0.7 2.1 1.0 0.1 0.0 3.9 11th
12th 0.0 0.4 1.2 0.8 0.1 2.5 12th
13th 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.5 0.1 0.0 1.5 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.6 14th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.2 2.6 5.0 8.4 11.6 13.5 15.5 14.4 11.9 8.1 4.6 1.9 0.6 0.1 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1
16-2 95.9% 0.6    0.5 0.1
15-3 77.3% 1.5    1.0 0.5 0.1
14-4 43.3% 2.0    0.7 0.9 0.3 0.0 0.0
13-5 14.1% 1.2    0.2 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.0
12-6 1.8% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 5.5% 5.5 2.4 1.9 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 0.1% 17.0% 17.0% 11.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
16-2 0.6% 29.7% 29.7% 12.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.4
15-3 1.9% 23.0% 23.0% 13.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.5
14-4 4.6% 20.1% 20.1% 13.4 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.0 3.7
13-5 8.1% 15.4% 15.4% 13.8 0.0 0.4 0.6 0.2 0.0 6.9
12-6 11.9% 11.7% 11.7% 14.2 0.2 0.7 0.4 0.0 10.5
11-7 14.4% 6.7% 6.7% 14.5 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.0 13.4
10-8 15.5% 4.3% 4.3% 14.9 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.1 14.8
9-9 13.5% 2.4% 2.4% 15.1 0.0 0.3 0.1 13.2
8-10 11.6% 1.9% 1.9% 15.7 0.1 0.2 11.4
7-11 8.4% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.0 0.1 8.3
6-12 5.0% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.0 4.9
5-13 2.6% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 2.6
4-14 1.2% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 1.2
3-15 0.4% 0.4
2-16 0.1% 0.1
1-17 0.0% 0.0 0.0
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 6.6% 6.6% 0.0% 14.1 0.0 0.3 1.5 2.4 1.8 0.5 93.4 0.0%