Appalachian St.
Sun Belt
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-0.5#169
Expected Predictive Rating-1.4#182
Pace60.6#350
Improvement-1.2#245

Offense
Total Offense-4.1#278
First Shot-4.4#297
After Offensive Rebound+0.4#164
Layup/Dunks-2.1#258
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.3#186
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.3#253
Freethrows+0.3#158
Improvement-1.2#244

Defense
Total Defense+3.6#78
First Shot+3.2#72
After Offensive Rebounds+0.4#144
Layups/Dunks-0.5#187
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.9#272
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.6#118
Freethrows+2.9#23
Improvement+0.0#183
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 7.9% 13.8% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.5 14.5 n/a
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round7.9% 13.8% 0.0%
Second Round0.2% 0.3% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 30 - 5
Quad 34 - 34 - 8
Quad 412 - 516 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 166   Miami (OH) L 63-77 60%     0 - 1 -17.0 -13.1 -3.7
  Nov 10, 2024 11   @ Wisconsin L 56-87 3%     0 - 2 -10.1 -7.9 -2.5
  Nov 19, 2024 214   Queens W 65-53 69%     1 - 2 +6.4 -6.8 +14.1
  Nov 24, 2024 223   William & Mary W 79-76 70%     2 - 2 -2.9 +5.4 -8.2
  Nov 27, 2024 176   Sam Houston St. W 66-63 51%     3 - 2 +2.2 -4.4 +6.8
  Nov 29, 2024 260   Colgate W 72-50 68%     4 - 2 +16.6 +8.2 +12.5
  Nov 30, 2024 111   @ UNC Wilmington L 61-76 26%     4 - 3 -8.8 -1.6 -9.6
  Dec 14, 2024 95   High Point L 59-65 28%     4 - 4 -0.4 -16.6 +16.3
  Dec 18, 2024 297   @ Louisiana L 62-68 66%     4 - 5 0 - 1 -10.8 -7.2 -4.0
  Dec 20, 2024 70   @ North Texas L 64-68 15%     4 - 6 +6.7 +14.1 -8.4
  Jan 02, 2025 112   Troy L 61-69 47%     4 - 7 0 - 2 -7.6 -2.5 -6.1
  Jan 04, 2025 198   Texas St. W 72-61 66%     5 - 7 1 - 2 +6.3 +1.2 +6.3
  Jan 08, 2025 316   Coastal Carolina W 74-51 85%     6 - 7 2 - 2 +11.2 +10.3 +5.8
  Jan 11, 2025 157   James Madison W 86-66 58%     7 - 7 3 - 2 +17.6 +7.2 +9.8
  Jan 16, 2025 296   @ Old Dominion W 62-43 66%     8 - 7 4 - 2 +14.2 +1.5 +17.1
  Jan 18, 2025 157   @ James Madison W 58-50 37%     9 - 7 5 - 2 +11.0 -7.2 +19.4
  Jan 23, 2025 90   @ Arkansas St. L 55-65 20%     9 - 8 5 - 3 -1.5 -8.4 +6.1
  Jan 25, 2025 341   @ Louisiana Monroe W 66-58 80%     10 - 8 6 - 3 -1.3 -5.5 +4.8
  Jan 29, 2025 296   Old Dominion L 77-78 82%     10 - 9 6 - 4 -11.2 +3.2 -14.5
  Feb 01, 2025 256   Georgia St. W 80-76 76%     11 - 9 7 - 4 -3.9 +1.4 -5.3
  Feb 05, 2025 286   Southern Miss W 60-58 81%     12 - 9 8 - 4 -7.8 -11.8 +4.1
  Feb 08, 2025 163   @ Ohio W 72-59 38%     13 - 9 +15.6 +8.3 +8.7
  Feb 13, 2025 316   @ Coastal Carolina W 64-46 72%     14 - 9 9 - 4 +11.6 +0.6 +14.8
  Feb 15, 2025 256   @ Georgia St. L 65-70 58%     14 - 10 9 - 5 -7.5 -4.4 -3.7
  Feb 20, 2025 245   Georgia Southern W 79-74 OT 75%     15 - 10 10 - 5 -2.5 -2.4 -0.4
  Feb 22, 2025 168   Marshall L 59-69 60%     15 - 11 10 - 6 -13.2 -9.4 -4.8
  Feb 25, 2025 245   @ Georgia Southern L 59-61 56%     15 - 12 10 - 7 -4.1 -6.9 +2.6
  Feb 28, 2025 168   @ Marshall L 57-75 39%     15 - 13 10 - 8 -15.7 -8.1 -9.7
Projected Record 15 - 13 10 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 100.0 100.0 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
Total 100.0 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8 0.0%
9-9
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8 100.0% 7.9% 7.9% 14.5 0.3 3.6 3.7 0.2 92.1
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 7.9% 7.9% 0.0% 14.5 0.3 3.6 3.7 0.2 92.1 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 7.9% 100.0% 14.5 3.9 45.9 47.6 2.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 8.3%
Lose Out 43.0%