Western Kentucky
Conference USA
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+2.8#122
Expected Predictive Rating-1.4#204
Pace85.6#1
Improvement+0.6#111

Offense
Total Offense-0.9#198
First Shot-3.2#267
After Offensive Rebound+2.3#64
Layup/Dunks+1.2#135
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.1#287
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.4#320
Freethrows+3.2#50
Improvement-0.9#314

Defense
Total Defense+3.8#74
First Shot+3.9#70
After Offensive Rebounds-0.1#199
Layups/Dunks+4.1#61
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.2#261
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.0#114
Freethrows-1.1#243
Improvement+1.5#28
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 11.1% 11.5% 6.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.6 12.5 13.2
.500 or above 66.1% 68.5% 39.9%
.500 or above in Conference 70.5% 71.8% 55.0%
Conference Champion 12.9% 13.5% 6.1%
Last Place in Conference 3.7% 3.3% 7.3%
First Four0.3% 0.3% 0.5%
First Round11.0% 11.4% 6.3%
Second Round2.0% 2.1% 0.6%
Sweet Sixteen0.5% 0.5% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Jackson St. (Home) - 91.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 21 - 42 - 7
Quad 36 - 58 - 12
Quad 49 - 217 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 94   Wichita St. L 84-91 51%     0 - 1 -4.5 -1.1 -2.3
  Nov 09, 2024 89   @ Grand Canyon L 72-74 28%     0 - 2 +6.8 -3.5 +10.4
  Nov 17, 2024 151   Lipscomb W 66-61 70%     1 - 2 +2.4 -13.8 +15.9
  Nov 20, 2024 320   Jackson St. W 85-70 92%    
  Nov 26, 2024 10   @ Kentucky L 77-94 6%    
  Nov 30, 2024 195   Marshall W 84-77 75%    
  Dec 07, 2024 300   @ Evansville W 82-75 75%    
  Dec 10, 2024 297   Tennessee St. W 85-72 88%    
  Dec 14, 2024 109   Murray St. W 76-74 56%    
  Dec 17, 2024 136   Seattle W 78-74 65%    
  Dec 29, 2024 24   @ Michigan L 72-86 11%    
  Jan 02, 2025 81   @ Liberty L 67-74 26%    
  Jan 04, 2025 273   @ Florida International W 84-78 69%    
  Jan 09, 2025 184   Jacksonville St. W 75-68 73%    
  Jan 11, 2025 160   Kennesaw St. W 91-85 70%    
  Jan 18, 2025 165   @ Middle Tennessee W 76-75 51%    
  Jan 23, 2025 87   @ Louisiana Tech L 71-78 29%    
  Jan 25, 2025 115   @ Sam Houston St. L 78-82 38%    
  Jan 30, 2025 203   UTEP W 81-73 75%    
  Feb 01, 2025 153   New Mexico St. W 78-72 69%    
  Feb 06, 2025 160   @ Kennesaw St. L 87-88 49%    
  Feb 08, 2025 184   @ Jacksonville St. W 72-71 54%    
  Feb 15, 2025 165   Middle Tennessee W 78-72 70%    
  Feb 20, 2025 115   Sam Houston St. W 81-79 58%    
  Feb 22, 2025 87   Louisiana Tech L 74-75 48%    
  Feb 27, 2025 203   @ UTEP W 78-76 57%    
  Mar 01, 2025 153   @ New Mexico St. L 74-75 49%    
  Mar 06, 2025 273   Florida International W 87-75 84%    
  Mar 08, 2025 81   Liberty L 70-71 46%    
Projected Record 16 - 13 10 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference USA Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.7 2.2 3.5 3.3 2.0 0.8 0.2 12.9 1st
2nd 0.2 1.6 4.4 4.8 2.7 0.8 0.1 14.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 2.3 5.7 5.0 1.8 0.2 0.0 15.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 2.5 5.9 4.5 1.1 0.1 14.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 2.4 5.3 3.7 0.8 0.0 12.5 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 2.0 4.6 2.9 0.5 0.0 10.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 1.7 3.5 2.3 0.3 0.0 8.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 1.4 2.6 1.5 0.3 0.0 6.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 1.0 1.5 0.9 0.2 0.0 3.9 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.3 0.0 1.9 10th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.9 3.5 5.5 7.5 9.8 11.4 12.5 12.6 11.3 9.0 6.5 4.1 2.1 0.8 0.2 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
17-1 100.0% 0.8    0.7 0.0
16-2 96.5% 2.0    1.8 0.2
15-3 79.7% 3.3    2.4 0.9 0.0
14-4 54.0% 3.5    1.8 1.4 0.2 0.0
13-5 25.1% 2.2    0.7 1.0 0.5 0.1
12-6 6.3% 0.7    0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.7% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 12.9% 12.9 7.8 3.8 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.2% 76.7% 61.6% 15.1% 8.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 39.3%
17-1 0.8% 55.8% 50.5% 5.3% 10.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.3 10.7%
16-2 2.1% 42.8% 41.1% 1.6% 11.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.0 1.2 2.8%
15-3 4.1% 30.6% 30.2% 0.4% 11.8 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.7 0.1 0.0 2.9 0.5%
14-4 6.5% 26.1% 26.1% 12.1 0.3 1.0 0.4 0.0 0.0 4.8
13-5 9.0% 19.5% 19.5% 12.5 0.1 0.9 0.6 0.1 0.0 7.2
12-6 11.3% 14.2% 14.2% 12.8 0.0 0.6 0.8 0.2 0.0 9.7
11-7 12.6% 9.8% 9.8% 13.1 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.3 0.1 11.4
10-8 12.5% 6.6% 6.6% 13.5 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 11.7
9-9 11.4% 5.6% 5.6% 14.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 10.7
8-10 9.8% 3.9% 3.9% 14.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 9.4
7-11 7.5% 2.2% 2.2% 15.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 7.4
6-12 5.5% 1.1% 1.1% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 5.4
5-13 3.5% 0.8% 0.8% 15.9 0.0 0.0 3.5
4-14 1.9% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 1.9
3-15 0.9% 0.9
2-16 0.3% 0.3
1-17 0.1% 0.1
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 11.1% 11.0% 0.1% 12.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 1.2 4.3 3.0 1.2 0.7 0.3 88.9 0.1%