UTEP
Conference USA
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-2.1#203
Expected Predictive Rating-8.4#293
Pace73.0#82
Improvement+0.3#140

Offense
Total Offense-3.4#271
First Shot-2.8#259
After Offensive Rebound-0.6#212
Layup/Dunks-6.8#343
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.8#317
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.4#196
Freethrows+7.1#4
Improvement+0.2#139

Defense
Total Defense+1.3#132
First Shot-2.9#272
After Offensive Rebounds+4.2#19
Layups/Dunks-2.4#255
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.5#10
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.2#261
Freethrows-1.9#284
Improvement+0.1#180
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3.1% 4.9% 2.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.5 13.1 13.8
.500 or above 28.3% 48.8% 22.7%
.500 or above in Conference 31.4% 44.5% 27.8%
Conference Champion 2.7% 5.0% 2.1%
Last Place in Conference 20.5% 12.4% 22.7%
First Four0.3% 0.2% 0.3%
First Round3.0% 4.9% 2.5%
Second Round0.3% 0.7% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: UC Santa Barbara (Away) - 21.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 51 - 7
Quad 34 - 75 - 14
Quad 47 - 312 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2024 137   @ Utah Valley L 60-89 26%     0 - 1 -24.5 -14.0 -7.7
  Nov 20, 2024 119   @ UC Santa Barbara L 69-77 21%    
  Nov 25, 2024 251   San Jose St. W 70-68 59%    
  Nov 26, 2024 259   Long Beach St. W 73-70 60%    
  Nov 27, 2024 170   UNC Greensboro L 67-69 44%    
  Dec 07, 2024 136   Seattle L 70-71 47%    
  Dec 11, 2024 46   @ Louisville L 67-82 9%    
  Dec 16, 2024 317   Tarleton St. W 75-66 80%    
  Dec 20, 2024 320   Jackson St. W 77-67 81%    
  Jan 02, 2025 87   Louisiana Tech L 67-73 31%    
  Jan 04, 2025 115   Sam Houston St. L 73-76 41%    
  Jan 11, 2025 153   New Mexico St. W 70-69 52%    
  Jan 16, 2025 81   @ Liberty L 60-72 15%    
  Jan 18, 2025 273   @ Florida International W 75-74 52%    
  Jan 23, 2025 184   Jacksonville St. W 68-66 57%    
  Jan 25, 2025 160   Kennesaw St. W 81-80 53%    
  Jan 30, 2025 122   @ Western Kentucky L 73-81 25%    
  Feb 01, 2025 165   @ Middle Tennessee L 68-73 34%    
  Feb 08, 2025 153   @ New Mexico St. L 67-72 32%    
  Feb 13, 2025 273   Florida International W 78-71 71%    
  Feb 15, 2025 81   Liberty L 63-69 30%    
  Feb 20, 2025 160   @ Kennesaw St. L 78-83 33%    
  Feb 22, 2025 184   @ Jacksonville St. L 65-69 37%    
  Feb 27, 2025 122   Western Kentucky L 76-78 43%    
  Mar 01, 2025 165   Middle Tennessee W 71-70 54%    
  Mar 06, 2025 115   @ Sam Houston St. L 70-79 23%    
  Mar 08, 2025 87   @ Louisiana Tech L 64-76 17%    
Projected Record 11 - 16 7 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference USA Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.8 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 2.7 1st
2nd 0.1 0.7 1.6 1.3 0.5 0.1 0.0 4.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 1.4 2.5 1.6 0.4 0.0 6.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 2.0 3.6 1.9 0.3 0.0 8.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 2.6 4.5 2.2 0.4 0.0 10.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.5 3.0 4.9 2.5 0.4 0.0 11.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.7 3.6 5.7 2.9 0.4 0.0 13.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 1.3 4.5 5.7 2.6 0.3 0.0 14.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.7 2.6 5.1 4.9 2.1 0.3 0.0 15.8 9th
10th 0.6 1.8 3.6 4.0 2.7 0.9 0.1 0.0 13.6 10th
Total 0.6 1.9 4.2 6.7 9.1 11.0 12.1 12.0 11.0 9.6 7.7 5.6 3.8 2.4 1.3 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1
16-2 98.1% 0.3    0.2 0.0
15-3 81.3% 0.5    0.4 0.1
14-4 57.8% 0.8    0.4 0.3 0.0
13-5 28.4% 0.7    0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0
12-6 7.9% 0.3    0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.6% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 2.7% 2.7 1.5 0.9 0.3 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
17-1 0.1% 56.7% 56.7% 10.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
16-2 0.3% 37.7% 36.8% 0.9% 11.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.5%
15-3 0.7% 27.2% 27.2% 12.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.5
14-4 1.3% 21.3% 21.3% 12.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 1.1
13-5 2.4% 15.4% 15.4% 12.8 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 2.1
12-6 3.8% 11.2% 11.2% 13.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 3.4
11-7 5.6% 8.1% 8.1% 13.5 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 5.1
10-8 7.7% 5.0% 5.0% 14.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 7.3
9-9 9.6% 3.5% 3.5% 14.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 9.2
8-10 11.0% 2.3% 2.3% 15.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 10.8
7-11 12.0% 1.1% 1.1% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 11.8
6-12 12.1% 0.7% 0.7% 15.9 0.0 0.1 12.0
5-13 11.0% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 11.0
4-14 9.1% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 9.1
3-15 6.7% 6.7
2-16 4.2% 4.2
1-17 1.9% 1.9
0-18 0.6% 0.6
Total 100% 3.1% 3.1% 0.0% 13.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.5 0.4 96.9 0.0%