Western Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
83 Utah Valley 54.8%   13   4 - 3 0 - 0 21 - 7 14 - 4 +6.6      +2.1 117 +4.5 58 70.7 154 +5.8 99 0.0 1
131 California Baptist 22.4%   7 - 3 0 - 0 21 - 10 12 - 6 +2.0      +0.5 148 +1.5 122 65.1 296 +7.3 83 0.0 1
191 Texas Arlington 8.2%   4 - 3 0 - 0 14 - 14 9 - 9 -1.9      -2.9 246 +0.9 139 68.6 206 +1.3 149 0.0 1
201 Tarleton St. 6.8%   3 - 4 0 - 0 13 - 14 9 - 9 -2.5      -1.6 214 -1.0 197 70.8 152 +4.1 115 0.0 1
215 Abilene Christian 4.9%   4 - 3 0 - 0 13 - 15 8 - 10 -3.5      -4.0 278 +0.5 154 64.6 306 -0.2 175 0.0 1
257 Utah Tech 2.4%   3 - 6 0 - 0 10 - 19 7 - 11 -5.3      -3.7 269 -1.6 218 67.8 229 -6.3 269 0.0 1
320 Southern Utah 0.5%   1 - 7 0 - 0 6 - 22 4 - 14 -9.0      -5.7 322 -3.3 279 73.1 96 -12.4 330 0.0 1




Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Interest
Wed, Dec 3 56 San Diego St. 77 83 Utah Valley 66   
Wed, Dec 3 9 BYU 66 131 California Baptist 44   
Wed, Dec 3 75 Santa Clara 90 257 Utah Tech 80   
Sat, Dec 6 131 California Baptist 85 114 Utah 91   
Sat, Dec 6 129 Bowling Green 71 83 Utah Valley 82   
Sat, Dec 6 215 Abilene Christian 77 127 New Mexico St. 69   
Sat, Dec 6 165 Oregon St. 81 320 Southern Utah 70   



Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Interest
Wed, Dec 10 168 Idaho St. 64 83 Utah Valley 74 84%   
Thu, Dec 11 191 Texas Arlington 73 209 UT Rio Grande Valley 75 57%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th
Utah Valley 1.4 73.9 17.5 5.6 2.0 0.7 0.2 0.0
California Baptist 2.4 22.9 39.6 20.3 10.0 4.8 2.0 0.5
Texas Arlington 3.7 6.4 17.6 24.1 20.9 16.2 10.5 4.3
Tarleton St. 4.0 5.4 14.7 21.3 21.6 17.7 13.1 6.1
Abilene Christian 4.3 3.2 11.1 18.3 22.0 21.4 16.1 7.8
Utah Tech 4.9 1.3 5.7 11.9 16.9 22.6 26.0 15.6
Southern Utah 6.1 0.2 1.1 3.4 7.0 13.4 24.5 50.5




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Utah Valley 14 - 4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.5 2.9 5.0 8.3 12.3 15.7 17.9 17.4 12.5 5.2
California Baptist 12 - 6 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.6 2.8 5.5 8.2 11.5 14.8 15.5 14.5 11.6 7.6 3.8 1.3 0.2
Texas Arlington 9 - 9 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.4 2.9 5.2 7.9 10.9 13.1 13.8 13.3 11.4 8.4 5.5 3.2 1.6 0.6 0.1 0.0
Tarleton St. 9 - 9 0.0 0.3 0.9 2.1 4.3 6.8 9.0 11.8 13.3 13.5 12.4 9.7 7.2 4.5 2.4 1.3 0.4 0.1 0.0
Abilene Christian 8 - 10 0.1 0.3 1.2 2.9 5.3 8.3 11.4 13.7 14.2 13.6 10.6 8.1 5.2 2.9 1.4 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0
Utah Tech 7 - 11 0.2 1.0 3.0 6.1 9.8 13.0 14.7 14.4 12.4 9.8 7.0 4.3 2.4 1.2 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
Southern Utah 4 - 14 2.4 7.4 12.6 15.7 16.4 14.7 11.4 8.2 5.3 3.1 1.6 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Utah Valley 73.9% 63.6 9.3 0.9 0.1 0.0
California Baptist 22.9% 15.1 7.0 0.8 0.1 0.0
Texas Arlington 6.4% 3.7 2.2 0.5 0.1 0.0
Tarleton St. 5.4% 3.1 1.8 0.4 0.1 0.0
Abilene Christian 3.2% 1.6 1.2 0.3 0.0 0.0
Utah Tech 1.3% 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.0
Southern Utah 0.2% 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Utah Valley 54.8% 54.7% 0.1% 13   0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.6 7.2 23.2 16.9 4.9 0.7 0.0 45.2 0.2%
California Baptist 22.4% 22.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 5.2 9.5 5.5 1.4 0.2 77.6 0.0%
Texas Arlington 8.2% 8.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.5 2.0 2.5 2.1 1.0 91.8 0.0%
Tarleton St. 6.8% 6.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.5 2.4 1.8 0.7 93.2 0.0%
Abilene Christian 4.9% 4.9% 0.0% 0.1 0.8 1.5 1.6 1.0 95.1 0.0%
Utah Tech 2.4% 2.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.4 97.6 0.0%
Southern Utah 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.5 99.5 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Utah Valley 54.8% 0.1% 54.8% 10.4% 2.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
California Baptist 22.4% 0.1% 22.4% 1.9% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Texas Arlington 8.2% 0.5% 8.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Tarleton St. 6.8% 0.4% 6.7% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Abilene Christian 4.9% 0.6% 4.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Utah Tech 2.4% 1.1% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Southern Utah 0.5% 0.4% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 99.9 0.1
1st Round 98.7% 1.0 1.3 98.6 0.0
2nd Round 13.2% 0.1 86.8 13.2
Sweet Sixteen 2.7% 0.0 97.3 2.7
Elite Eight 0.3% 0.0 99.7 0.3
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0