Western Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
87 Utah Valley 52.2%   13   8 - 3 1 - 0 21 - 7 14 - 4 +6.5      +1.2 133 +5.3 49 70.9 141 +7.8 79 +14.0 2
134 California Baptist 19.5%   10 - 4 0 - 1 21 - 10 11 - 7 +1.8      +0.3 151 +1.4 124 65.1 298 +6.5 86 -5.7 5
164 Tarleton St. 12.2%   6 - 4 1 - 0 15 - 12 10 - 8 -0.4      -1.6 208 +1.1 130 73.4 72 +6.4 88 +16.9 1
179 Texas Arlington 7.9%   6 - 5 0 - 1 15 - 13 9 - 9 -1.3      -3.8 275 +2.5 99 65.2 296 +1.0 150 -18.6 7
202 Abilene Christian 5.5%   5 - 5 0 - 0 13 - 15 8 - 10 -2.8      -3.7 273 +0.9 134 66.3 264 +0.7 153 0.0 4
245 Utah Tech 2.5%   5 - 7 1 - 0 11 - 18 7 - 11 -4.7      -2.7 241 -2.0 235 68.0 223 -3.5 223 +2.1 3
328 Southern Utah 0.2%   1 - 10 0 - 1 4 - 24 3 - 15 -10.1      -6.7 337 -3.3 291 73.1 81 -14.2 344 -16.9 6




Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Interest
Mon, Dec 29 134 California Baptist 66 87 Utah Valley 73   
Mon, Dec 29 164 Tarleton St. 69 179 Texas Arlington 63   
Mon, Dec 29 328 Southern Utah 66 245 Utah Tech 80   



Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Interest
Thu, Jan 1 134 California Baptist 67 179 Texas Arlington 66 50%   
Thu, Jan 1 164 Tarleton St. 71 87 Utah Valley 75 65%   
Thu, Jan 1 202 Abilene Christian 71 245 Utah Tech 67 68%   
Sat, Jan 3 134 California Baptist 71 164 Tarleton St. 72 53%   
Sat, Jan 3 202 Abilene Christian 66 87 Utah Valley 72 73%   
Sat, Jan 3 328 Southern Utah 66 179 Texas Arlington 72 71%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th
Utah Valley 1.3 78.6 14.8 4.4 1.6 0.4 0.1 0.0
California Baptist 2.7 15.0 37.0 23.5 13.8 7.4 3.0 0.4
Tarleton St. 3.1 11.9 27.4 25.7 17.7 10.7 5.5 1.2
Texas Arlington 4.0 3.6 13.6 19.9 23.7 21.8 14.1 3.3
Abilene Christian 4.2 2.8 12.5 17.2 21.9 23.0 17.7 5.0
Utah Tech 4.9 1.3 5.7 10.7 17.5 24.8 31.9 8.2
Southern Utah 6.6 0.0 0.3 0.9 2.4 7.0 18.8 70.7




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Utah Valley 14 - 4 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 1.1 2.2 4.6 8.5 12.7 17.4 19.5 17.6 11.8 3.9
California Baptist 11 - 7 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.9 4.1 7.1 10.9 14.7 16.6 15.9 13.0 8.7 4.1 1.4 0.2
Tarleton St. 10 - 8 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.8 2.0 4.2 6.7 9.8 12.9 15.4 15.3 12.7 9.8 5.7 2.8 1.1 0.3 0.1
Texas Arlington 9 - 9 0.0 0.4 1.1 3.1 5.8 9.6 12.8 15.6 15.8 13.3 10.6 6.5 3.3 1.5 0.6 0.1 0.0
Abilene Christian 8 - 10 0.0 0.3 0.6 1.8 4.5 7.4 11.0 13.9 14.6 14.8 11.8 9.0 5.7 2.7 1.2 0.5 0.2 0.1
Utah Tech 7 - 11 0.4 1.5 4.5 8.9 12.6 15.3 15.9 14.5 11.3 7.1 4.4 2.4 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Southern Utah 3 - 15 5.2 13.2 18.8 19.5 16.0 12.1 7.5 4.6 2.0 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Utah Valley 78.6% 68.7 8.6 1.2 0.1 0.0
California Baptist 15.0% 8.8 5.2 0.9 0.1 0.0
Tarleton St. 11.9% 7.1 3.9 0.8 0.1 0.0
Texas Arlington 3.6% 2.0 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0
Abilene Christian 2.8% 1.3 1.1 0.3 0.0 0.0
Utah Tech 1.3% 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0
Southern Utah 0.0% 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Utah Valley 52.2% 52.2% 0.0% 13   0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 6.4 23.9 17.6 3.3 0.2 0.0 47.8 0.0%
California Baptist 19.5% 19.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 4.1 9.0 5.2 1.0 0.1 80.5 0.0%
Tarleton St. 12.2% 12.2% 0.0% 0.1 1.4 4.3 4.5 1.7 0.3 87.8 0.0%
Texas Arlington 7.9% 7.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.3 2.1 3.0 1.9 0.5 92.1 0.0%
Abilene Christian 5.5% 5.5% 0.0% 0.2 1.1 1.8 1.6 0.8 94.5 0.0%
Utah Tech 2.5% 2.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.8 1.2 97.5 0.0%
Southern Utah 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2 99.8 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Utah Valley 52.2% 0.0% 52.2% 8.1% 1.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
California Baptist 19.5% 0.0% 19.5% 1.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Tarleton St. 12.2% 0.1% 12.2% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Texas Arlington 7.9% 0.3% 7.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Abilene Christian 5.5% 0.4% 5.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Utah Tech 2.5% 0.9% 2.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Southern Utah 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0 0.0
1st Round 99.3% 1.0 0.7 99.2 0.0
2nd Round 10.4% 0.1 89.6 10.4
Sweet Sixteen 2.1% 0.0 97.9 2.1
Elite Eight 0.2% 0.0 99.8 0.2
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0