Western Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
118 Utah Valley 37.5%   14   0 - 0 0 - 0 18 - 10 13 - 5 +2.7      0.0 165 +2.7 98 69.8 140 0.0 121 0.0 1
178 Abilene Christian 16.8%   0 - 0 0 - 0 14 - 14 10 - 8 -1.3      -3.1 261 +1.8 113 72.0 81 0.0 121 0.0 1
186 California Baptist 15.4%   1 - 0 0 - 0 16 - 15 10 - 8 -1.8      -0.8 187 -1.0 193 65.1 277 +0.2 119 0.0 1
203 Texas Arlington 13.7%   0 - 0 0 - 0 14 - 14 9 - 9 -2.4      -0.8 192 -1.6 214 68.6 182 0.0 121 0.0 1
265 Tarleton St. 5.6%   0 - 1 0 - 0 10 - 17 7 - 11 -5.6      -5.0 319 -0.6 183 64.7 291 +1.5 105 0.0 1
269 Utah Tech 5.5%   1 - 0 0 - 0 11 - 18 7 - 11 -5.6      -3.8 286 -1.9 231 68.0 199 +8.5 25 0.0 1
276 Southern Utah 5.5%   0 - 0 0 - 0 10 - 18 7 - 11 -5.9      -3.9 291 -2.0 236 71.5 95 0.0 121 0.0 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th
Utah Valley 2.1 49.8 21.8 11.9 7.9 4.7 2.6 1.3
Abilene Christian 3.3 19.4 20.5 18.7 15.1 12.1 8.6 5.6
California Baptist 3.4 16.7 20.1 18.7 16.3 12.8 9.3 6.1
Texas Arlington 3.6 15.1 18.0 17.6 16.4 13.6 11.4 7.9
Tarleton St. 4.7 5.4 9.2 12.2 15.0 18.6 19.7 20.0
Utah Tech 4.8 5.2 8.6 12.0 15.1 17.8 20.2 21.1
Southern Utah 4.8 5.0 9.0 11.8 14.2 17.2 20.1 22.8




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Utah Valley 13 - 5 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.9 1.8 2.8 4.0 5.9 7.9 9.3 11.5 12.2 12.6 11.8 9.3 6.3 2.7
Abilene Christian 10 - 8 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.5 2.7 4.1 6.1 7.5 9.5 10.6 11.4 10.8 10.4 8.7 6.5 4.6 2.7 1.2 0.4
California Baptist 10 - 8 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.7 3.0 4.7 6.3 8.6 10.1 10.8 11.5 11.2 10.1 8.0 5.9 3.6 2.3 0.8 0.2
Texas Arlington 9 - 9 0.1 0.5 1.3 2.4 3.8 5.8 7.3 8.9 10.4 10.5 11.2 10.1 8.8 7.4 5.4 3.3 1.8 0.8 0.3
Tarleton St. 7 - 11 0.6 1.9 4.1 6.2 8.7 10.5 11.4 11.8 10.9 9.6 7.8 6.1 4.5 2.8 1.8 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0
Utah Tech 7 - 11 0.6 1.9 4.3 7.0 8.8 10.7 11.6 11.7 10.4 9.4 7.9 5.8 4.4 2.6 1.6 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0
Southern Utah 7 - 11 0.7 2.7 4.9 7.0 9.1 10.7 11.1 11.0 10.4 9.0 7.7 5.7 4.3 2.6 1.7 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Utah Valley 49.8% 40.4 8.1 1.2 0.1 0.0
Abilene Christian 19.4% 13.8 4.7 0.9 0.1 0.0
California Baptist 16.7% 11.3 4.4 0.9 0.1
Texas Arlington 15.1% 10.4 3.9 0.8 0.1 0.0
Tarleton St. 5.4% 3.2 1.7 0.3 0.1 0.0
Utah Tech 5.2% 3.1 1.6 0.4 0.1 0.0
Southern Utah 5.0% 3.3 1.4 0.3 0.1


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Utah Valley 37.5% 37.5% 0.1% 14   0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.4 4.0 9.6 10.0 7.6 4.0 2.1 62.5 0.1%
Abilene Christian 16.8% 16.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.6 2.5 4.2 4.5 3.3 2.1 83.2 0.0%
California Baptist 15.4% 15.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 2.0 3.7 4.0 3.4 2.5 84.6 0.0%
Texas Arlington 13.7% 13.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.8 3.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 86.3 0.0%
Tarleton St. 5.6% 5.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.3 0.7 1.3 1.9 1.8 94.4 0.0%
Utah Tech 5.5% 5.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.8 1.3 1.7 1.5 94.5 0.0%
Southern Utah 5.5% 5.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.8 1.1 1.6 2.0 94.5 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Utah Valley 37.5% 1.1% 37.6% 4.5% 1.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Abilene Christian 16.8% 1.4% 16.5% 1.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
California Baptist 15.4% 1.3% 15.4% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Texas Arlington 13.7% 1.5% 13.6% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Tarleton St. 5.6% 1.2% 5.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Utah Tech 5.5% 1.0% 5.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Southern Utah 5.5% 1.4% 5.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 99.9 0.1
1st Round 96.6% 1.0 3.4 94.2 2.4
2nd Round 7.8% 0.1 92.2 7.8
Sweet Sixteen 1.5% 0.0 98.5 1.5
Elite Eight 0.2% 0.0 99.8 0.2
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0