Utah Tech
Western Athletic
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-7.3#298
Expected Predictive Rating-13.2#341
Pace68.9#182
Improvement+1.3#93

Offense
Total Offense-3.5#274
First Shot-0.7#190
After Offensive Rebound-2.8#324
Layup/Dunks+1.8#117
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.1#243
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.9#200
Freethrows-0.6#218
Improvement+1.7#56

Defense
Total Defense-3.8#292
First Shot-2.0#233
After Offensive Rebounds-1.8#310
Layups/Dunks-4.0#324
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.1#278
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.0#69
Freethrows+0.0#184
Improvement-0.4#222
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.5% 0.7% 0.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.9 15.9 16.0
.500 or above 0.2% 0.4% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 11.4% 13.9% 9.2%
Conference Champion 0.4% 0.6% 0.3%
Last Place in Conference 42.6% 38.4% 46.2%
First Four0.4% 0.6% 0.3%
First Round0.3% 0.5% 0.2%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: South Dakota (Home) - 47.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 20 - 30 - 6
Quad 32 - 102 - 16
Quad 45 - 77 - 23


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 67   @ Oregon St. L 57-80 5%     0 - 1 -11.8 -9.3 -2.6
  Nov 09, 2024 199   New Mexico St. L 63-75 40%     0 - 2 -16.8 -9.9 -7.1
  Nov 16, 2024 187   @ Wyoming L 69-86 20%     0 - 3 -15.3 -4.4 -10.2
  Nov 22, 2024 66   @ Utah L 53-84 5%     0 - 4 -19.6 -18.4 +1.5
  Nov 24, 2024 148   Cal St. Northridge L 79-89 23%     0 - 5 -9.5 +5.6 -14.9
  Nov 25, 2024 212   @ Montana L 66-69 23%     0 - 6 -2.5 -4.7 +2.1
  Nov 26, 2024 325   Denver W 68-54 57%     1 - 6 +4.8 -1.5 +8.1
  Nov 30, 2024 276   @ Portland St. L 68-71 34%     1 - 7 -6.1 -4.7 -1.5
  Dec 03, 2024 58   @ Boise St. L 64-87 5%     1 - 8 -10.7 +2.7 -15.5
  Dec 07, 2024 47   @ Utah St. L 62-92 4%     1 - 9 -16.3 -6.9 -8.2
  Dec 13, 2024 208   Weber St. L 71-73 43%     1 - 10 -7.4 +4.2 -11.9
  Dec 19, 2024 228   South Dakota L 81-82 47%    
  Dec 30, 2024 242   @ Florida International L 70-76 29%    
  Jan 09, 2025 162   Texas Arlington L 76-80 35%    
  Jan 11, 2025 303   Tarleton St. W 70-67 62%    
  Jan 16, 2025 140   @ Seattle L 66-77 15%    
  Jan 18, 2025 165   @ Utah Valley L 66-76 18%    
  Jan 25, 2025 102   Grand Canyon L 71-80 20%    
  Jan 30, 2025 303   @ Tarleton St. L 67-70 40%    
  Feb 01, 2025 162   @ Texas Arlington L 73-83 18%    
  Feb 06, 2025 188   Abilene Christian L 71-74 40%    
  Feb 13, 2025 210   @ Southern Utah L 71-79 24%    
  Feb 15, 2025 175   @ California Baptist L 67-76 19%    
  Feb 20, 2025 165   Utah Valley L 69-73 36%    
  Feb 22, 2025 188   @ Abilene Christian L 68-77 21%    
  Feb 27, 2025 210   Southern Utah L 74-76 44%    
  Mar 01, 2025 175   California Baptist L 70-73 38%    
  Mar 06, 2025 102   @ Grand Canyon L 68-83 9%    
  Mar 08, 2025 140   Seattle L 69-74 32%    
Projected Record 6 - 23 5 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Western Athletic Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 1.3 0.7 0.1 2.6 3rd
4th 0.0 0.6 2.2 1.2 0.2 0.0 4.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.8 3.4 2.4 0.3 0.0 7.0 5th
6th 0.1 1.2 4.7 4.3 0.8 0.0 11.0 6th
7th 0.2 2.3 6.9 6.3 1.3 0.0 17.0 7th
8th 0.1 1.4 5.7 10.0 7.6 1.6 0.1 26.5 8th
9th 1.3 4.8 9.2 8.8 4.9 1.0 0.0 29.9 9th
Total 1.3 4.9 10.6 14.7 17.3 16.6 13.5 9.7 6.0 3.1 1.5 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 Total



Western Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
13-3 83.3% 0.1    0.0 0.0
12-4 60.0% 0.1    0.1 0.1 0.0
11-5 30.6% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
10-6 3.7% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 0.4% 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2 0.0% 0.0 0.0
13-3 0.1% 20.0% 20.0% 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-4 0.2% 16.2% 16.2% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.2
11-5 0.6% 10.5% 10.5% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.5
10-6 1.5% 5.0% 5.0% 16.0 0.1 1.4
9-7 3.1% 2.9% 2.9% 16.0 0.0 0.1 3.0
8-8 6.0% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.1 5.9
7-9 9.7% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.1 9.6
6-10 13.5% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 13.4
5-11 16.6% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 16.6
4-12 17.3% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 17.3
3-13 14.7% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 14.7
2-14 10.6% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 10.6
1-15 4.9% 4.9
0-16 1.3% 1.3
Total 100% 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.5 99.5 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.8%