Utah Tech
Western Athletic
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-5.3#254
Expected Predictive Rating-6.4#267
Pace67.3#246
Improvement+2.8#24

Offense
Total Offense-3.6#261
First Shot-0.8#204
After Offensive Rebound-2.7#325
Layup/Dunks+1.0#142
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.1#178
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.5#169
Freethrows-2.3#306
Improvement+2.4#21

Defense
Total Defense-1.7#224
First Shot-0.1#174
After Offensive Rebounds-1.6#289
Layups/Dunks-6.6#352
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.4#182
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.2#50
Freethrows+1.9#78
Improvement+0.5#143
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3.0% 4.0% 2.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.3 15.1 15.5
.500 or above 8.9% 17.1% 5.7%
.500 or above in Conference 28.2% 34.9% 25.6%
Conference Champion 1.8% 2.8% 1.5%
Last Place in Conference 21.1% 16.7% 22.9%
First Four1.2% 0.9% 1.3%
First Round2.6% 3.8% 2.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Weber St. (Away) - 28.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 4
Quad 20 - 40 - 8
Quad 33 - 73 - 15
Quad 48 - 511 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 276 @South Dakota W 81-79 OT 42%     1 - 0 -1.2 -6.6 +5.1
  Fri, Nov 7 9 @Arizona L 67-93 1%     1 - 1 -3.7 +3.9 -7.1
  Sun, Nov 9 82 @Arizona St. L 66-81 8%     1 - 2 -5.0 -4.7 -0.1
  Wed, Nov 12 310 Manhattan L 75-79 61%     1 - 3 -12.2 +0.7 -13.2
  Fri, Nov 14 365 Mississippi Valley W 81-75 2OT 93%     2 - 3 -16.1 -5.3 -11.1
  Sat, Nov 15 108 @Hawaii L 62-68 12%     2 - 4 +1.3 -4.4 +5.7
  Tue, Nov 25 156 Portland St. L 63-68 41%     2 - 5 -8.0 -9.9 +1.9
  Sat, Nov 29 271 UC Riverside W 77-69 65%     3 - 5 -1.1 +7.4 -7.7
  Wed, Dec 3 55 @Santa Clara L 80-90 6%     3 - 6 +2.6 +5.8 -2.3
  Sat, Dec 20 192 @Weber St. L 71-77 28%    
  Mon, Dec 22 45 @Creighton L 62-82 4%    
  Mon, Dec 29 320 Southern Utah W 75-68 74%    
  Thu, Jan 1 234 @Abilene Christian L 64-68 36%    
  Thu, Jan 8 130 @California Baptist L 63-73 18%    
  Sat, Jan 10 90 @Utah Valley L 63-77 10%    
  Thu, Jan 15 190 Texas Arlington L 69-70 49%    
  Sat, Jan 17 202 Tarleton St. W 72-71 51%    
  Wed, Jan 21 130 @California Baptist L 63-73 17%    
  Sat, Jan 24 320 Southern Utah W 75-68 74%    
  Thu, Jan 29 234 @Abilene Christian L 64-68 37%    
  Sat, Jan 31 202 @Tarleton St. L 69-75 31%    
  Thu, Feb 5 190 Texas Arlington L 69-70 49%    
  Thu, Feb 12 90 Utah Valley L 66-74 24%    
  Sat, Feb 14 130 California Baptist L 66-70 35%    
  Thu, Feb 19 190 @Texas Arlington L 66-72 29%    
  Sat, Feb 21 202 @Tarleton St. L 69-75 31%    
  Thu, Feb 26 234 Abilene Christian W 67-65 58%    
  Sat, Feb 28 320 @Southern Utah W 72-71 54%    
  Sat, Mar 7 90 Utah Valley L 66-74 24%    
Projected Record 10 - 19 7 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Western Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 1.8 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 1.0 2.0 1.9 0.9 0.2 0.0 6.2 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.2 3.5 4.4 2.5 0.6 0.1 12.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 3.1 6.9 5.5 2.1 0.2 0.0 18.4 4th
5th 0.2 2.0 6.4 8.5 4.9 1.2 0.1 23.1 5th
6th 0.2 1.4 4.9 8.3 6.8 2.4 0.4 0.0 24.2 6th
7th 0.2 0.9 2.6 4.0 3.8 1.9 0.5 0.0 14.0 7th
Total 0.2 0.9 2.8 5.4 8.8 12.1 14.1 14.1 13.3 10.4 7.6 4.8 2.9 1.6 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0 Total



Western Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
16-2 100.0% 0.1    0.1
15-3 90.3% 0.2    0.1 0.0
14-4 63.8% 0.4    0.3 0.1 0.0
13-5 38.4% 0.6    0.3 0.3 0.0
12-6 13.8% 0.4    0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
11-7 2.9% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 1.8% 1.8 0.9 0.7 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 0.0% 0.0 0.0
16-2 0.1% 36.4% 36.4% 13.8 0.0 0.0 0.0
15-3 0.2% 38.7% 38.7% 14.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1
14-4 0.7% 30.2% 30.2% 14.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.5
13-5 1.6% 19.7% 19.7% 14.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 1.3
12-6 2.9% 13.2% 13.2% 14.8 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.0 2.5
11-7 4.8% 9.5% 9.5% 15.4 0.0 0.3 0.2 4.4
10-8 7.6% 5.8% 5.8% 15.7 0.1 0.3 7.1
9-9 10.4% 3.8% 3.8% 15.9 0.0 0.4 10.0
8-10 13.3% 2.3% 2.3% 16.0 0.3 13.0
7-11 14.1% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.2 13.9
6-12 14.1% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.1 14.0
5-13 12.1% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.1 12.1
4-14 8.8% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 8.8
3-15 5.4% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 5.4
2-16 2.8% 2.8
1-17 0.9% 0.9
0-18 0.2% 0.2
Total 100% 3.0% 3.0% 0.0% 15.3 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.6 97.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%