Weber St.
Big Sky
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-2.4#208
Expected Predictive Rating-3.7#228
Pace64.4#298
Improvement+0.4#157

Offense
Total Offense+0.3#162
First Shot-1.3#205
After Offensive Rebound+1.6#96
Layup/Dunks+0.1#181
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.7#206
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.2#184
Freethrows-0.5#212
Improvement+1.3#78

Defense
Total Defense-2.7#258
First Shot+0.8#150
After Offensive Rebounds-3.5#353
Layups/Dunks-2.7#271
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.9#1
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.2#97
Freethrows-2.5#327
Improvement-1.0#267
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 13.1% 14.9% 10.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.0 14.8 15.2
.500 or above 47.1% 57.8% 34.4%
.500 or above in Conference 74.0% 78.4% 68.9%
Conference Champion 16.1% 18.8% 13.0%
Last Place in Conference 3.3% 2.4% 4.5%
First Four2.4% 1.8% 3.1%
First Round12.1% 14.1% 9.8%
Second Round0.4% 0.6% 0.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Utah Valley (Home) - 54.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 32 - 63 - 10
Quad 412 - 615 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2024 67   @ Oregon St. L 48-76 11%     0 - 1 -16.8 -14.1 -5.2
  Nov 13, 2024 54   @ Nevada L 58-88 8%     0 - 2 -17.1 -3.9 -15.9
  Nov 17, 2024 174   @ Hawaii L 68-73 OT 33%     0 - 3 -2.8 -3.8 +1.0
  Nov 22, 2024 63   UC Irvine L 87-93 22%     0 - 4 -0.3 +14.6 -14.5
  Nov 29, 2024 265   Bowling Green W 73-70 63%     1 - 4 -2.7 -3.2 +0.5
  Nov 30, 2024 226   Pepperdine W 68-53 54%     2 - 4 +11.5 -5.3 +17.1
  Dec 04, 2024 131   North Dakota St. L 73-77 46%     2 - 5 -5.2 +5.5 -11.3
  Dec 07, 2024 302   @ North Dakota L 75-80 58%     2 - 6 -9.6 +2.1 -11.9
  Dec 13, 2024 298   @ Utah Tech W 73-71 57%     3 - 6 -2.3 +8.4 -10.4
  Dec 21, 2024 165   Utah Valley W 71-70 54%    
  Dec 29, 2024 23   @ Oregon L 62-81 4%    
  Jan 02, 2025 192   @ Northern Colorado L 73-77 36%    
  Jan 04, 2025 286   @ Northern Arizona W 73-72 55%    
  Jan 11, 2025 231   @ Idaho St. L 65-67 44%    
  Jan 16, 2025 212   Montana W 75-72 61%    
  Jan 18, 2025 139   Montana St. L 71-72 48%    
  Jan 23, 2025 276   @ Portland St. W 74-73 52%    
  Jan 25, 2025 329   @ Sacramento St. W 68-63 66%    
  Jan 30, 2025 291   Idaho W 75-68 75%    
  Feb 01, 2025 251   Eastern Washington W 78-72 69%    
  Feb 03, 2025 286   Northern Arizona W 76-69 75%    
  Feb 08, 2025 231   Idaho St. W 68-64 65%    
  Feb 13, 2025 139   @ Montana St. L 68-75 28%    
  Feb 15, 2025 212   @ Montana L 72-75 40%    
  Feb 20, 2025 329   Sacramento St. W 71-60 83%    
  Feb 22, 2025 276   Portland St. W 77-70 72%    
  Feb 27, 2025 251   @ Eastern Washington L 74-75 49%    
  Mar 01, 2025 291   @ Idaho W 72-71 55%    
  Mar 03, 2025 192   Northern Colorado W 76-74 57%    
Projected Record 14 - 15 10 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Sky Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 1.6 3.9 4.6 3.5 1.6 0.5 0.1 16.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 3.1 6.2 4.8 2.0 0.3 0.0 17.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 3.6 6.5 3.8 0.9 0.1 15.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 2.9 6.3 3.2 0.5 0.0 13.2 4th
5th 0.1 2.2 5.6 3.1 0.4 0.0 11.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 1.5 4.5 2.9 0.3 0.0 9.4 6th
7th 0.1 0.9 3.2 2.6 0.3 0.0 7.2 7th
8th 0.1 0.7 2.1 2.0 0.4 0.0 5.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.3 1.3 0.3 0.0 3.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.6 10th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.1 2.5 4.5 7.2 9.9 12.1 13.8 13.6 12.2 9.7 6.6 3.8 1.6 0.5 0.1 Total



Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-1 100.0% 0.5    0.5 0.0
16-2 98.8% 1.6    1.5 0.1
15-3 91.3% 3.5    2.9 0.6 0.0
14-4 69.5% 4.6    2.9 1.6 0.2
13-5 40.6% 3.9    1.6 1.8 0.6 0.0 0.0
12-6 13.4% 1.6    0.3 0.7 0.5 0.1 0.0
11-7 1.9% 0.3    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 16.1% 16.1 9.8 4.7 1.4 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.1% 46.7% 46.7% 12.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
17-1 0.5% 44.6% 44.6% 13.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3
16-2 1.6% 37.2% 37.2% 13.6 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 1.0
15-3 3.8% 35.6% 35.6% 14.1 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.4 0.0 2.5
14-4 6.6% 27.6% 27.6% 14.4 0.0 0.2 0.8 0.8 0.0 4.8
13-5 9.7% 22.8% 22.8% 14.7 0.1 0.7 1.2 0.2 7.5
12-6 12.2% 16.1% 16.1% 15.2 0.0 0.2 1.1 0.6 10.3
11-7 13.6% 12.7% 12.7% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.8 0.8 11.8
10-8 13.8% 10.4% 10.4% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.0 12.3
9-9 12.1% 7.6% 7.6% 16.0 0.0 0.9 11.2
8-10 9.9% 4.0% 4.0% 16.0 0.4 9.5
7-11 7.2% 2.3% 2.3% 16.0 0.2 7.0
6-12 4.5% 2.4% 2.4% 16.0 0.1 4.4
5-13 2.5% 2.2% 2.2% 16.0 0.1 2.5
4-14 1.1% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.0 1.1
3-15 0.5% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 0.5
2-16 0.2% 0.2
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 13.1% 13.1% 0.0% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.9 2.8 4.8 4.4 86.9 0.0%