Sacramento St.
Big Sky
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-10.0#329
Expected Predictive Rating-17.8#359
Pace62.0#343
Improvement-2.7#327

Offense
Total Offense-7.3#352
First Shot-5.4#327
After Offensive Rebound-1.9#285
Layup/Dunks-4.0#310
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.9#289
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.4#106
Freethrows-1.9#286
Improvement-0.6#231

Defense
Total Defense-2.7#260
First Shot-2.3#251
After Offensive Rebounds-0.4#213
Layups/Dunks+2.2#97
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.1#205
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.3#302
Freethrows-1.2#263
Improvement-2.1#321
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.0% 2.1% 0.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 15.8 16.0
.500 or above 0.4% 2.2% 0.4%
.500 or above in Conference 11.5% 21.3% 11.3%
Conference Champion 0.4% 1.0% 0.4%
Last Place in Conference 46.5% 30.7% 46.8%
First Four0.9% 1.7% 0.9%
First Round0.5% 1.2% 0.5%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Oregon St. (Away) - 2.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 20 - 3
Quad 31 - 71 - 10
Quad 46 - 137 - 23


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2024 256   @ Fresno St. L 57-64 23%     0 - 1 -9.3 -12.5 +3.1
  Nov 12, 2024 95   @ UC San Diego L 54-64 5%     0 - 2 -1.3 -7.9 +5.4
  Nov 16, 2024 148   Cal St. Northridge L 69-79 24%     0 - 3 -12.5 -3.7 -8.9
  Nov 24, 2024 120   @ California L 77-83 8%     0 - 4 -0.3 +2.1 -2.3
  Nov 27, 2024 267   @ Air Force W 63-61 24%     1 - 4 -0.7 -5.5 +4.9
  Nov 30, 2024 360   Mercyhurst L 60-66 77%     1 - 5 -23.7 -13.5 -11.0
  Dec 04, 2024 325   @ Denver L 59-80 35%     1 - 6 -27.2 -11.3 -18.1
  Dec 07, 2024 294   Nebraska Omaha L 60-70 50%     1 - 7 -20.0 -14.5 -6.1
  Dec 14, 2024 184   UC Davis L 62-69 29%     1 - 8 -11.2 -6.6 -4.9
  Dec 17, 2024 67   @ Oregon St. L 53-74 2%    
  Jan 04, 2025 276   Portland St. L 68-69 46%    
  Jan 09, 2025 291   Idaho L 66-67 49%    
  Jan 11, 2025 251   Eastern Washington L 69-71 43%    
  Jan 16, 2025 286   @ Northern Arizona L 65-71 28%    
  Jan 18, 2025 192   @ Northern Colorado L 65-76 15%    
  Jan 23, 2025 231   Idaho St. L 60-63 38%    
  Jan 25, 2025 208   Weber St. L 63-68 34%    
  Jan 30, 2025 139   @ Montana St. L 59-73 10%    
  Feb 01, 2025 212   @ Montana L 64-74 17%    
  Feb 06, 2025 251   @ Eastern Washington L 66-74 24%    
  Feb 08, 2025 291   @ Idaho L 63-69 29%    
  Feb 13, 2025 192   Northern Colorado L 68-73 31%    
  Feb 15, 2025 286   Northern Arizona L 67-68 49%    
  Feb 20, 2025 208   @ Weber St. L 60-71 17%    
  Feb 22, 2025 231   @ Idaho St. L 57-66 21%    
  Feb 27, 2025 212   Montana L 67-71 34%    
  Mar 01, 2025 139   Montana St. L 62-70 23%    
  Mar 03, 2025 276   @ Portland St. L 65-72 27%    
Projected Record 6 - 22 5 - 13




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Sky Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 1.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 0.9 0.8 0.2 0.0 2.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 1.4 1.4 0.4 0.0 3.4 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 1.7 2.4 0.7 0.0 5.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 2.1 3.7 1.2 0.1 0.0 7.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 2.5 5.1 2.2 0.1 10.3 7th
8th 0.1 0.7 3.6 6.4 3.4 0.4 0.0 14.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 2.1 5.9 7.9 4.1 0.6 0.0 20.9 9th
10th 1.0 3.8 7.6 10.0 8.3 3.5 0.6 0.0 34.7 10th
Total 1.0 3.9 7.9 12.2 14.9 15.3 13.9 11.4 8.1 5.4 3.2 1.7 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total



Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
16-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
15-3 91.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0
14-4 67.4% 0.1    0.1 0.0 0.0
13-5 43.8% 0.1    0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 15.1% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 2.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.4% 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 0.0% 0.0
16-2 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
15-3 0.0% 8.7% 8.7% 15.0 0.0 0.0
14-4 0.1% 8.7% 8.7% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.1
13-5 0.3% 7.4% 7.4% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.3
12-6 0.8% 8.2% 8.2% 16.0 0.1 0.7
11-7 1.7% 5.8% 5.8% 16.0 0.1 1.6
10-8 3.2% 4.4% 4.4% 16.0 0.1 3.0
9-9 5.4% 3.4% 3.4% 16.0 0.2 5.2
8-10 8.1% 1.9% 1.9% 16.0 0.2 8.0
7-11 11.4% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.1 11.3
6-12 13.9% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.1 13.8
5-13 15.3% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 15.3
4-14 14.9% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 14.9
3-15 12.2% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 12.1
2-16 7.9% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 7.9
1-17 3.9% 3.9
0-18 1.0% 1.0
Total 100% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 0.0 0.9 99.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.7%