Sacramento St.
Big Sky
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-11.4#337
Expected Predictive Rating-15.5#352
Pace62.0#341
Improvement-2.2#283

Offense
Total Offense-9.2#357
First Shot-7.3#347
After Offensive Rebound-1.9#291
Layup/Dunks-2.7#284
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.6#320
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.5#163
Freethrows-2.5#317
Improvement-2.1#296

Defense
Total Defense-2.2#243
First Shot-1.2#218
After Offensive Rebounds-1.0#270
Layups/Dunks+2.8#78
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.2#220
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.4#313
Freethrows-0.4#212
Improvement-0.2#192
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.3% 0.4% 0.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 1.0% 2.7% 0.2%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 80.1% 67.5% 85.8%
First Four0.3% 0.4% 0.2%
First Round0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Idaho St. (Home) - 30.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 31 - 71 - 11
Quad 44 - 135 - 24


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2024 254   @ Fresno St. L 57-64 20%     0 - 1 -9.5 -15.0 +5.3
  Nov 12, 2024 79   @ UC San Diego L 54-64 3%     0 - 2 +0.0 -7.6 +6.4
  Nov 16, 2024 133   Cal St. Northridge L 69-79 16%     0 - 3 -10.9 -3.3 -7.7
  Nov 24, 2024 118   @ California L 77-83 7%     0 - 4 -0.5 +3.1 -3.5
  Nov 27, 2024 275   @ Air Force W 63-61 23%     1 - 4 -1.7 -5.4 +3.9
  Nov 30, 2024 359   Mercyhurst L 60-66 72%     1 - 5 -23.4 -13.4 -10.8
  Dec 04, 2024 340   @ Denver L 59-80 40%     1 - 6 -29.8 -12.8 -19.3
  Dec 07, 2024 222   Nebraska Omaha L 60-70 30%     1 - 7 -16.1 -14.0 -2.7
  Dec 14, 2024 228   UC Davis L 62-69 32%     1 - 8 -13.5 -7.1 -6.6
  Dec 17, 2024 70   @ Oregon St. L 45-82 3%     1 - 9 -26.4 -21.9 -6.2
  Jan 04, 2025 227   Portland St. W 56-53 32%     2 - 9 1 - 0 -3.5 -9.3 +6.3
  Jan 09, 2025 246   Idaho L 67-80 35%     2 - 10 1 - 1 -20.5 -3.5 -18.7
  Jan 11, 2025 257   Eastern Washington L 54-65 37%     2 - 11 1 - 2 -19.1 -20.8 +0.9
  Jan 16, 2025 264   @ Northern Arizona L 53-77 21%     2 - 12 1 - 3 -27.1 -21.1 -6.4
  Jan 18, 2025 166   @ Northern Colorado L 64-68 10%     2 - 13 1 - 4 -1.4 -2.6 +0.7
  Jan 23, 2025 217   Idaho St. L 59-65 31%    
  Jan 25, 2025 237   Weber St. L 63-67 35%    
  Jan 30, 2025 180   @ Montana St. L 58-71 10%    
  Feb 01, 2025 226   @ Montana L 61-72 16%    
  Feb 06, 2025 257   @ Eastern Washington L 63-72 20%    
  Feb 08, 2025 246   @ Idaho L 62-71 19%    
  Feb 13, 2025 166   Northern Colorado L 66-75 23%    
  Feb 15, 2025 264   Northern Arizona L 65-68 41%    
  Feb 20, 2025 237   @ Weber St. L 60-70 18%    
  Feb 22, 2025 217   @ Idaho St. L 57-68 14%    
  Feb 27, 2025 226   Montana L 64-69 33%    
  Mar 01, 2025 180   Montana St. L 61-69 24%    
  Mar 03, 2025 227   @ Portland St. L 60-70 16%    
Projected Record 5 - 23 4 - 14




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Sky Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 3rd
4th 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.4 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.8 5th
6th 0.0 0.5 1.0 0.2 1.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.8 2.1 0.5 0.0 3.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 1.5 3.9 2.1 0.2 7.7 8th
9th 0.0 1.1 4.5 7.7 4.3 0.6 18.3 9th
10th 5.4 15.6 20.4 17.5 7.4 1.2 0.1 67.6 10th
Total 5.4 15.6 21.5 22.1 16.6 10.2 5.4 2.2 0.8 0.2 0.0 Total



Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 0.0% 0.0
10-8 0.2% 0.0 0.2
9-9 0.8% 2.6% 2.6% 16.0 0.0 0.8
8-10 2.2% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.0 2.2
7-11 5.4% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 5.4
6-12 10.2% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.1 10.1
5-13 16.6% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 16.5
4-14 22.1% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 22.1
3-15 21.5% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 21.5
2-16 15.6% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 15.6
1-17 5.4% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 5.4
0-18
Total 100% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 16.0 0.3 99.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 4.3%