UC Davis
Big West
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-0.3#168
Expected Predictive Rating+3.5#124
Pace75.6#41
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-2.3#242
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+2.0#110
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 6.5% 10.3% 5.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.0 12.5 13.1
.500 or above 55.4% 77.3% 51.8%
.500 or above in Conference 63.6% 76.2% 61.5%
Conference Champion 6.0% 11.1% 5.2%
Last Place in Conference 3.2% 1.5% 3.5%
First Four0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
First Round6.5% 10.3% 5.9%
Second Round0.9% 2.0% 0.7%
Sweet Sixteen0.3% 0.5% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Stanford (Away) - 14.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 21 - 41 - 6
Quad 34 - 55 - 12
Quad 410 - 316 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 05, 2024 79   @ Washington L 73-79 16%     0 - 1 +4.3 -4.3 +9.6
  Nov 07, 2024 282   @ Idaho W 79-75 61%     1 - 1 +0.7 +1.3 -0.7
  Nov 17, 2024 70   @ Stanford L 66-77 14%    
  Nov 20, 2024 85   @ Grand Canyon L 69-79 18%    
  Nov 25, 2024 230   Norfolk St. W 75-69 70%    
  Nov 30, 2024 103   @ Oregon St. L 65-73 23%    
  Dec 05, 2024 333   Cal Poly W 83-70 87%    
  Dec 07, 2024 117   UC Santa Barbara L 76-77 48%    
  Dec 14, 2024 296   @ Sacramento St. W 68-64 63%    
  Dec 18, 2024 282   Idaho W 76-67 78%    
  Dec 21, 2024 229   @ Pepperdine L 74-75 50%    
  Jan 02, 2025 261   @ Cal St. Bakersfield W 71-69 56%    
  Jan 04, 2025 202   @ Cal St. Northridge L 77-78 47%    
  Jan 09, 2025 262   Cal St. Fullerton W 74-66 75%    
  Jan 11, 2025 250   Long Beach St. W 81-74 73%    
  Jan 16, 2025 333   @ Cal Poly W 80-73 72%    
  Jan 18, 2025 117   @ UC Santa Barbara L 74-80 29%    
  Jan 23, 2025 175   Hawaii W 72-69 62%    
  Jan 30, 2025 155   @ UC Riverside L 72-76 37%    
  Feb 01, 2025 60   @ UC Irvine L 65-77 15%    
  Feb 06, 2025 250   @ Long Beach St. W 78-77 53%    
  Feb 08, 2025 262   @ Cal St. Fullerton W 71-69 57%    
  Feb 13, 2025 155   UC Riverside W 75-73 57%    
  Feb 15, 2025 132   @ UC San Diego L 68-73 33%    
  Feb 20, 2025 261   Cal St. Bakersfield W 74-66 75%    
  Feb 22, 2025 202   Cal St. Northridge W 80-75 66%    
  Mar 02, 2025 175   @ Hawaii L 69-72 41%    
  Mar 06, 2025 60   UC Irvine L 68-74 30%    
  Mar 08, 2025 132   UC San Diego W 71-70 54%    
Projected Record 15 - 14 11 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.1 1.5 1.6 0.9 0.3 0.1 6.0 1st
2nd 0.1 0.5 1.8 3.5 3.3 1.9 0.5 0.1 11.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 0.8 3.1 4.7 3.3 1.2 0.1 0.0 13.3 3rd
4th 0.1 1.1 3.9 5.1 2.6 0.6 0.0 13.4 4th
5th 0.1 1.3 4.2 5.0 2.1 0.3 0.0 13.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 1.3 4.2 4.5 1.7 0.2 12.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 1.3 3.8 3.8 1.1 0.1 10.3 7th
8th 0.1 1.2 3.1 2.8 0.9 0.1 0.0 8.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 1.1 2.4 1.8 0.6 0.0 6.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.9 1.4 1.1 0.3 0.0 4.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.7 11th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.6 3.0 5.0 6.6 8.6 10.4 11.0 11.5 11.0 9.6 7.8 5.6 3.5 2.2 0.9 0.3 0.1 Total



Big West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
19-1 100.0% 0.3    0.3
18-2 92.7% 0.9    0.7 0.1
17-3 75.8% 1.6    1.1 0.5 0.0
16-4 42.9% 1.5    0.8 0.6 0.1 0.0
15-5 20.3% 1.1    0.4 0.6 0.2 0.0
14-6 5.7% 0.4    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0
13-7 0.7% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 6.0% 6.0 3.4 2.0 0.5 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
19-1 0.3% 63.7% 59.3% 4.4% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 10.8%
18-2 0.9% 47.6% 44.7% 2.9% 11.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.5 5.3%
17-3 2.2% 32.9% 32.4% 0.5% 12.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.0 1.4 0.7%
16-4 3.5% 26.8% 26.8% 12.6 0.0 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 2.6
15-5 5.6% 20.5% 20.5% 12.9 0.0 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.0 4.5
14-6 7.8% 15.0% 15.0% 13.3 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 6.6
13-7 9.6% 7.6% 7.6% 13.5 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 8.8
12-8 11.0% 4.6% 4.6% 13.8 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 10.5
11-9 11.5% 2.5% 2.5% 14.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 11.3
10-10 11.0% 1.7% 1.7% 14.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 10.8
9-11 10.4% 1.1% 1.1% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 10.3
8-12 8.6% 0.3% 0.3% 15.9 0.0 0.0 8.6
7-13 6.6% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 6.6
6-14 5.0% 5.0
5-15 3.0% 3.0
4-16 1.6% 1.6
3-17 0.8% 0.8
2-18 0.3% 0.3
1-19 0.1% 0.1
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 6.5% 6.5% 0.1% 13.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.8 2.3 1.4 0.5 0.2 93.5 0.1%