UC Davis
Big West
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-3.8#228
Expected Predictive Rating-0.2#176
Pace70.7#120
Improvement-1.9#260

Offense
Total Offense-6.5#335
First Shot-3.4#279
After Offensive Rebound-3.1#332
Layup/Dunks-4.8#337
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.9#41
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.5#315
Freethrows+3.0#31
Improvement-0.9#241

Defense
Total Defense+2.7#97
First Shot+3.4#78
After Offensive Rebounds-0.6#244
Layups/Dunks+1.3#122
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.5#152
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.7#74
Freethrows-1.1#268
Improvement-0.9#230
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.6% 0.7% 0.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.6 14.4 14.9
.500 or above 27.0% 39.1% 14.6%
.500 or above in Conference 43.3% 58.6% 27.5%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.3% 0.0% 0.5%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Round0.6% 0.7% 0.4%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Hawaii (Home) - 50.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 30 - 3
Quad 22 - 42 - 8
Quad 34 - 56 - 13
Quad 48 - 414 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 05, 2024 95   @ Washington L 73-79 12%     0 - 1 +2.7 -5.5 +9.2
  Nov 07, 2024 246   @ Idaho W 79-75 43%     1 - 1 +2.0 -0.6 +2.5
  Nov 17, 2024 87   @ Stanford L 65-79 12%     1 - 2 -4.8 -7.6 +3.3
  Nov 20, 2024 83   @ Grand Canyon W 75-68 11%     2 - 2 +16.5 +3.9 +12.2
  Nov 25, 2024 182   Norfolk St. L 55-76 49%     2 - 3 -24.6 -20.2 -4.5
  Nov 30, 2024 70   @ Oregon St. L 57-90 10%     2 - 4 -22.4 -8.0 -16.6
  Dec 05, 2024 286   Cal Poly W 77-66 72%     3 - 4 1 - 0 +1.1 -13.0 +12.5
  Dec 07, 2024 165   UC Santa Barbara W 71-60 46%     4 - 4 2 - 0 +8.3 +0.5 +8.4
  Dec 14, 2024 337   @ Sacramento St. W 69-62 68%     5 - 4 -1.7 -2.1 +0.6
  Dec 18, 2024 246   Idaho W 74-66 64%     6 - 4 +0.5 -6.3 +6.7
  Dec 21, 2024 203   @ Pepperdine L 46-85 33%     6 - 5 -38.4 -26.0 -12.4
  Jan 02, 2025 234   @ Cal St. Bakersfield L 64-75 41%     6 - 6 2 - 1 -12.3 -5.9 -7.2
  Jan 04, 2025 133   @ Cal St. Northridge L 61-73 21%     6 - 7 2 - 2 -7.4 -12.5 +5.8
  Jan 09, 2025 309   Cal St. Fullerton W 63-53 76%     7 - 7 3 - 2 -1.2 -15.0 +13.7
  Jan 11, 2025 293   Long Beach St. L 73-84 74%     7 - 8 3 - 3 -21.4 -2.4 -19.5
  Jan 16, 2025 286   @ Cal Poly W 65-54 53%     8 - 8 4 - 3 +6.6 -2.2 +10.3
  Jan 18, 2025 165   @ UC Santa Barbara W 64-60 27%     9 - 8 5 - 3 +6.8 +3.6 +3.9
  Jan 23, 2025 181   Hawaii L 66-67 51%    
  Jan 30, 2025 175   @ UC Riverside L 65-71 28%    
  Feb 01, 2025 60   @ UC Irvine L 58-74 7%    
  Feb 06, 2025 293   @ Long Beach St. W 68-67 53%    
  Feb 08, 2025 309   @ Cal St. Fullerton W 67-65 56%    
  Feb 13, 2025 175   UC Riverside L 68-69 50%    
  Feb 15, 2025 79   @ UC San Diego L 60-74 10%    
  Feb 20, 2025 234   Cal St. Bakersfield W 69-66 62%    
  Feb 22, 2025 133   Cal St. Northridge L 72-75 40%    
  Mar 02, 2025 181   @ Hawaii L 64-70 30%    
  Mar 06, 2025 60   UC Irvine L 61-71 18%    
  Mar 08, 2025 79   UC San Diego L 63-71 23%    
Projected Record 13 - 16 9 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.2 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.1 2.9 1.7 0.4 0.0 6.1 3rd
4th 0.1 1.9 5.4 3.2 0.5 0.0 11.1 4th
5th 0.1 2.1 7.2 5.0 0.9 15.3 5th
6th 0.1 1.8 8.5 7.9 1.3 0.0 19.6 6th
7th 0.2 2.0 9.1 9.3 2.4 0.1 23.1 7th
8th 0.0 1.7 6.7 7.2 2.0 0.1 17.7 8th
9th 0.4 2.2 2.2 0.6 0.0 5.4 9th
10th 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.6 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 11th
Total 0.8 4.3 11.0 18.7 21.9 19.6 12.9 7.1 2.7 0.8 0.1 0.1 Total



Big West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 40.0% 0.0    0.0
15-5 8.3% 0.0    0.0
14-6 0.0%
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 0.1% 0.1
15-5 0.1% 0.1
14-6 0.8% 2.5% 2.5% 13.0 0.0 0.8
13-7 2.7% 4.1% 4.1% 13.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 2.6
12-8 7.1% 1.5% 1.5% 14.5 0.1 0.1 7.0
11-9 12.9% 0.9% 0.9% 14.5 0.1 0.1 12.8
10-10 19.6% 0.7% 0.7% 15.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 19.4
9-11 21.9% 0.2% 0.2% 15.6 0.0 0.0 21.9
8-12 18.7% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 18.7
7-13 11.0% 11.0
6-14 4.3% 4.3
5-15 0.8% 0.8
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 0.6% 0.6% 0.0% 14.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 99.4 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.8%