Cal St. Fullerton
Big West
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-6.1#278
Expected Predictive Rating-5.7#263
Pace64.5#294
Improvement-0.1#194

Offense
Total Offense-4.7#312
First Shot-4.0#296
After Offensive Rebound-0.7#225
Layup/Dunks+0.4#170
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.2#155
3 Pt Jumpshots-8.0#357
Freethrows+3.4#28
Improvement-0.7#244

Defense
Total Defense-1.4#211
First Shot-2.2#246
After Offensive Rebounds+0.8#121
Layups/Dunks+0.6#149
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.9#109
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.6#283
Freethrows-1.1#258
Improvement+0.6#146
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.9 14.5 15.4
.500 or above 1.4% 2.6% 0.5%
.500 or above in Conference 5.7% 7.5% 4.3%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 44.5% 39.8% 48.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Wyoming (Home) - 43.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 4
Quad 20 - 50 - 9
Quad 33 - 83 - 16
Quad 46 - 59 - 21


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 102   @ Grand Canyon L 79-89 10%     0 - 1 -2.1 +6.1 -7.6
  Nov 08, 2024 87   @ Stanford L 53-80 8%     0 - 2 -17.8 -11.2 -9.3
  Nov 13, 2024 73   @ Colorado L 53-83 7%     0 - 3 -19.5 -11.5 -9.4
  Nov 15, 2024 67   @ Oregon St. L 51-70 6%     0 - 4 -7.8 -8.7 -1.7
  Nov 18, 2024 231   Idaho St. W 62-61 53%     1 - 4 -5.8 -5.1 -0.6
  Nov 22, 2024 17   @ UCLA L 47-80 2%     1 - 5 -15.0 -10.6 -6.3
  Nov 26, 2024 226   @ Pepperdine W 72-63 29%     2 - 5 +8.5 +6.1 +3.3
  Nov 30, 2024 264   @ Pacific L 55-64 37%     2 - 6 -11.6 -12.4 -0.1
  Dec 05, 2024 272   Long Beach St. L 56-73 61%     2 - 7 0 - 1 -25.9 -18.6 -8.3
  Dec 07, 2024 177   @ UC Riverside L 68-75 22%     2 - 8 0 - 2 -4.9 -2.5 -2.5
  Dec 15, 2024 325   Denver W 74-59 72%     3 - 8 +2.8 +7.9 -2.3
  Dec 22, 2024 187   Wyoming L 66-68 43%    
  Jan 02, 2025 148   Cal St. Northridge L 70-74 37%    
  Jan 04, 2025 95   UC San Diego L 62-71 20%    
  Jan 09, 2025 184   @ UC Davis L 63-71 23%    
  Jan 11, 2025 174   Hawaii L 65-67 42%    
  Jan 16, 2025 63   @ UC Irvine L 57-75 5%    
  Jan 18, 2025 272   @ Long Beach St. L 64-67 38%    
  Jan 23, 2025 245   Cal St. Bakersfield W 66-64 56%    
  Jan 25, 2025 136   UC Santa Barbara L 67-71 34%    
  Feb 02, 2025 174   @ Hawaii L 62-70 23%    
  Feb 06, 2025 148   @ Cal St. Northridge L 67-77 19%    
  Feb 08, 2025 184   UC Davis L 66-68 43%    
  Feb 13, 2025 249   Cal Poly W 77-75 57%    
  Feb 15, 2025 245   @ Cal St. Bakersfield L 63-67 35%    
  Feb 20, 2025 136   @ UC Santa Barbara L 64-74 17%    
  Feb 27, 2025 63   UC Irvine L 60-72 14%    
  Mar 01, 2025 95   @ UC San Diego L 59-74 9%    
  Mar 06, 2025 249   @ Cal Poly L 74-78 35%    
  Mar 08, 2025 177   UC Riverside L 66-68 42%    
Projected Record 9 - 21 5 - 15




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.8 3rd
4th 0.1 0.5 0.8 0.2 0.0 1.6 4th
5th 0.1 0.9 1.3 0.6 0.1 0.0 3.0 5th
6th 0.1 1.3 2.5 1.0 0.1 0.0 4.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 1.6 3.7 1.9 0.2 7.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 2.3 5.2 3.0 0.4 0.0 11.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.7 3.5 6.8 4.4 0.7 0.0 16.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 2.0 6.2 8.4 4.7 0.9 0.0 22.5 10th
11th 0.6 2.9 6.6 9.3 7.9 3.9 0.8 0.0 32.1 11th
Total 0.6 3.0 6.9 11.4 14.8 16.1 14.8 12.2 8.9 5.8 3.1 1.7 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Big West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 100.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
15-5 25.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
14-6 15.6% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 1.8% 0.0    0.0 0.0
12-8 0.4% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 0.0% 0.0 0.0
15-5 0.0% 0.0
14-6 0.1% 17.8% 17.8% 13.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
13-7 0.2% 5.3% 5.3% 13.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2
12-8 0.6% 3.5% 3.5% 14.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.6
11-9 1.7% 1.7% 1.7% 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.7
10-10 3.1% 0.3% 0.3% 15.3 0.0 0.0 3.0
9-11 5.8% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 5.7
8-12 8.9% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 8.9
7-13 12.2% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 12.2
6-14 14.8% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 14.7
5-15 16.1% 16.1
4-16 14.8% 14.8
3-17 11.4% 11.4
2-18 6.9% 6.9
1-19 3.0% 3.0
0-20 0.6% 0.6
Total 100% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 14.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 99.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.4%