Big West
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
54 UC San Diego 58.9%   12   20 - 4 13 - 2 25 - 5 17 - 3 +10.6      +5.4 56 +5.2 51 65.2 258 +9.7 59 +10.0 1
85 UC Irvine 28.5%   21 - 5 12 - 3 25 - 6 16 - 4 +6.7      -0.9 197 +7.6 23 71.3 95 +9.4 60 +7.9 2
114 Cal St. Northridge 7.5%   17 - 7 11 - 4 20 - 9 14 - 6 +2.8      +1.0 148 +1.8 120 79.6 8 +3.8 112 +4.7 3
145 UC Santa Barbara 2.1%   15 - 10 9 - 7 17 - 12 11 - 9 +0.9      +1.7 117 -0.8 194 63.7 298 -0.1 168 0.0 5
149 UC Riverside 4.0%   16 - 10 11 - 5 18 - 12 13 - 7 +0.7      +1.4 126 -0.8 192 66.9 212 +4.9 97 +4.7 4
207 Hawaii 0.3%   12 - 12 6 - 9 14 - 15 8 - 12 -2.5      -2.7 245 +0.1 173 64.8 273 -2.1 198 -4.9 8
222 UC Davis 0.3%   13 - 12 9 - 7 14 - 15 10 - 10 -3.2      -6.5 335 +3.2 87 68.6 169 -0.4 172 -0.4 6
240 Cal St. Bakersfield 0.2%   10 - 16 6 - 10 12 - 18 8 - 12 -4.4      -0.4 188 -3.9 292 64.9 268 -4.3 236 -4.3 7
242 Cal Poly 0.1%   9 - 17 4 - 11 12 - 19 7 - 13 -4.4      -1.3 211 -3.2 266 83.1 2 -3.3 219 -6.4 9
304 Long Beach St. 0.0%   5 - 20 3 - 12 6 - 24 4 - 16 -8.4      -2.9 251 -5.4 325 62.8 325 -9.6 316 -9.9 10
342 Cal St. Fullerton 0.0%   4 - 22 1 - 15 4 - 26 1 - 19 -12.0      -7.8 348 -4.2 301 69.0 155 -11.3 332 -17.5 11





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th
UC San Diego 1.0 96.9 3.0 0.1
UC Irvine 1.8 18.8 77.7 3.3 0.2
Cal St. Northridge 3.2 1.1 11.5 57.3 27.4 2.4 0.3
UC Santa Barbara 4.9 0.0 2.4 14.9 71.2 11.3 0.1
UC Riverside 3.4 0.0 5.4 47.2 45.1 2.2 0.1
Hawaii 7.3 0.0 1.1 11.1 48.9 31.0 7.8 0.0
UC Davis 5.7 0.3 3.1 29.8 64.2 2.7
Cal St. Bakersfield 7.5 0.6 6.5 47.6 31.2 14.1 0.1
Cal Poly 8.3 0.1 1.1 17.9 32.3 45.4 3.3
Long Beach St. 9.8 0.1 1.9 11.5 86.3 0.1
Cal St. Fullerton 11.0 1.5 98.5




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
UC San Diego 17 - 3 0.0 0.7 7.9 38.8 52.6
UC Irvine 16 - 4 0.0 0.5 4.9 20.2 42.0 32.4
Cal St. Northridge 14 - 6 1.3 9.1 25.8 34.4 23.3 6.2
UC Santa Barbara 11 - 9 3.0 18.6 39.8 30.3 8.3
UC Riverside 13 - 7 2.2 14.6 33.2 36.0 13.9
Hawaii 8 - 12 8.7 28.4 36.9 20.8 4.9 0.2
UC Davis 10 - 10 26.2 40.4 25.6 7.1 0.8
Cal St. Bakersfield 8 - 12 11.4 32.1 35.7 17.6 3.2
Cal Poly 7 - 13 1.8 12.2 31.0 33.8 18.1 3.1
Long Beach St. 4 - 16 21.8 40.2 29.1 8.2 0.6 0.0
Cal St. Fullerton 1 - 19 64.9 29.7 5.0 0.4 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
UC San Diego 96.9% 80.7 15.6 0.6
UC Irvine 18.8% 3.0 15.2 0.6
Cal St. Northridge 1.1% 0.0 0.4 0.6
UC Santa Barbara
UC Riverside 0.0% 0.0
Hawaii
UC Davis
Cal St. Bakersfield
Cal Poly
Long Beach St.
Cal St. Fullerton


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
UC San Diego 58.9% 57.3% 1.6% 12   0.0 0.0 0.1 1.0 6.1 36.9 14.7 0.1 41.1 3.7%
UC Irvine 28.5% 28.3% 0.1% 0.0 0.3 12.0 15.7 0.5 71.5 0.2%
Cal St. Northridge 7.5% 7.5% 0.0% 0.7 4.7 1.9 0.2 92.5 0.0%
UC Santa Barbara 2.1% 2.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.4 0.9 0.6 0.1 98.0 0.0%
UC Riverside 4.0% 4.0% 0.0% 0.1 2.0 1.6 0.2 0.0 96.0 0.0%
Hawaii 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 99.7 0.0%
UC Davis 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 99.7 0.0%
Cal St. Bakersfield 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 99.8 0.0%
Cal Poly 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 99.9 0.0%
Long Beach St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Cal St. Fullerton 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
UC San Diego 58.9% 1.5% 58.1% 18.5% 4.4% 1.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
UC Irvine 28.5% 0.1% 28.4% 5.3% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Cal St. Northridge 7.5% 0.0% 7.5% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UC Santa Barbara 2.1% 0.0% 2.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UC Riverside 4.0% 0.0% 4.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Hawaii 0.3% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UC Davis 0.3% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Cal St. Bakersfield 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Cal Poly 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Long Beach St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Cal St. Fullerton 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 98.3 1.7
1st Round 99.9% 1.0 0.1 99.0 0.9
2nd Round 24.7% 0.2 75.3 24.6 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 5.5% 0.1 94.5 5.5
Elite Eight 1.3% 0.0 98.7 1.3
Final Four 0.2% 0.0 99.8 0.2
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0