Big West
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
74 UC Irvine 43.1%   12   9 - 2 1 - 0 25 - 6 16 - 4 +7.6      +0.7 150 +6.9 24 71.2 113 +10.9 58 +8.0 5
89 UC San Diego 34.7%   9 - 2 2 - 0 23 - 7 16 - 4 +6.3      +3.0 95 +3.3 89 66.3 250 +11.1 55 +15.6 1
144 UC Santa Barbara 5.2%   6 - 5 0 - 2 16 - 13 10 - 10 +0.5      +0.9 146 -0.4 181 65.2 271 -2.3 201 -14.1 8
152 Cal St. Northridge 5.3%   7 - 4 1 - 1 17 - 12 11 - 9 +0.2      -1.2 207 +1.4 128 79.6 12 +1.3 152 -3.4 6
159 Hawaii 5.4%   5 - 3 0 - 1 15 - 13 10 - 10 0.0      -0.8 194 +0.7 145 65.3 266 +1.5 148 -17.4 10
176 UC Riverside 4.5%   6 - 5 2 - 0 16 - 14 11 - 9 -0.9      -0.7 191 -0.2 173 66.9 234 +5.2 99 +15.0 2
226 UC Davis 1.3%   6 - 5 2 - 0 13 - 16 9 - 11 -3.5      -6.3 339 +2.8 101 74.4 56 +1.6 146 +10.3 4
236 Cal St. Bakersfield 0.7%   4 - 7 0 - 2 12 - 18 8 - 12 -4.2      -2.9 252 -1.3 210 63.0 326 -4.3 237 -5.3 7
258 Long Beach St. 0.6%   4 - 8 2 - 0 10 - 20 8 - 12 -5.2      -1.9 223 -3.3 282 63.1 323 -5.0 252 +12.0 3
271 Cal Poly 0.2%   5 - 8 0 - 2 11 - 20 6 - 14 -6.0      -1.8 220 -4.2 301 85.4 1 -2.4 202 -17.0 9
276 Cal St. Fullerton 0.2%   3 - 9 0 - 2 9 - 21 6 - 14 -6.3      -4.0 287 -2.3 239 63.4 318 -7.0 285 -20.3 11





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th
UC Irvine 1.7 55.2 29.9 8.8 3.4 1.5 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
UC San Diego 1.8 48.0 34.2 10.4 4.2 1.8 0.9 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
UC Santa Barbara 5.3 1.7 6.8 16.3 17.1 15.8 13.3 10.8 8.1 5.5 3.1 1.5
Cal St. Northridge 4.9 3.0 8.9 18.3 18.0 15.5 12.5 9.4 6.7 4.3 2.4 0.9
Hawaii 5.3 2.9 8.1 15.9 15.4 14.2 12.4 10.5 8.3 6.1 4.1 2.2
UC Riverside 4.7 4.4 10.7 20.2 18.2 14.7 11.4 8.5 6.0 3.5 1.8 0.6
UC Davis 6.2 1.0 3.6 9.1 12.2 13.5 14.6 14.4 12.5 9.8 6.4 2.7
Cal St. Bakersfield 7.5 0.2 1.2 4.4 7.0 8.9 11.2 12.7 14.6 15.3 13.8 10.6
Long Beach St. 7.0 0.4 1.8 5.4 8.3 10.9 13.1 15.0 15.9 14.1 10.3 4.7
Cal Poly 8.9 0.0 0.2 0.9 2.0 3.8 5.8 8.9 12.4 17.4 23.0 25.5
Cal St. Fullerton 9.2 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.7 3.0 5.1 7.5 11.2 16.4 22.8 31.2




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
UC Irvine 16 - 4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 2.1 4.0 7.0 11.0 14.9 17.8 17.4 14.0 7.8 2.4
UC San Diego 16 - 4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.3 2.7 4.9 8.4 12.1 15.8 17.9 16.6 11.9 6.0 1.6
UC Santa Barbara 10 - 10 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 2.2 4.2 7.1 10.2 13.1 14.8 14.9 12.7 9.4 6.0 2.8 1.0 0.3 0.0
Cal St. Northridge 11 - 9 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.5 3.1 6.0 8.9 12.0 14.5 14.9 13.6 10.8 7.2 4.2 1.7 0.7 0.1 0.0
Hawaii 10 - 10 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.4 2.9 5.0 7.5 10.3 12.2 13.4 13.2 11.6 9.2 6.2 3.7 1.8 0.6 0.2 0.0
UC Riverside 11 - 9 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.1 2.5 5.1 7.9 11.2 13.6 14.6 14.0 11.6 8.3 5.3 2.7 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.0
UC Davis 9 - 11 0.1 0.6 2.0 4.7 8.0 11.6 14.2 15.0 13.9 11.7 8.1 5.1 2.9 1.3 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0
Cal St. Bakersfield 8 - 12 0.1 0.5 1.6 3.7 6.7 9.8 12.9 14.6 14.0 12.2 9.9 6.6 4.0 2.2 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0
Long Beach St. 8 - 12 0.2 1.3 3.8 7.7 11.7 14.9 16.0 14.6 11.5 8.3 5.1 2.8 1.3 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
Cal Poly 6 - 14 0.4 1.6 4.9 9.2 13.1 16.0 16.2 14.0 10.5 6.9 3.9 2.0 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Cal St. Fullerton 6 - 14 0.5 2.6 6.3 10.9 14.7 16.1 15.4 12.6 9.2 5.9 3.2 1.6 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
UC Irvine 55.2% 42.7 11.2 1.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
UC San Diego 48.0% 35.8 10.9 1.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
UC Santa Barbara 1.7% 0.7 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Cal St. Northridge 3.0% 1.3 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
Hawaii 2.9% 1.4 1.1 0.3 0.1 0.0
UC Riverside 4.4% 2.2 1.6 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0
UC Davis 1.0% 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
Cal St. Bakersfield 0.2% 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
Long Beach St. 0.4% 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Cal Poly 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Cal St. Fullerton 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
UC Irvine 43.1% 42.5% 0.7% 12   0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.5 1.1 12.1 24.6 3.5 0.2 0.0 56.9 1.1%
UC San Diego 34.7% 34.2% 0.5% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.6 8.5 20.7 3.6 0.3 0.0 65.3 0.7%
UC Santa Barbara 5.2% 5.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.0 2.2 1.5 0.4 0.1 94.8 0.0%
Cal St. Northridge 5.3% 5.3% 0.0% 0.0 1.1 2.3 1.6 0.3 0.0 94.7 0.0%
Hawaii 5.4% 5.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 1.4 2.3 1.2 0.3 0.0 94.6 0.0%
UC Riverside 4.5% 4.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 1.2 1.9 1.0 0.4 0.1 95.5 0.0%
UC Davis 1.3% 1.3% 0.0% 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.1 98.7 0.0%
Cal St. Bakersfield 0.7% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 99.3 0.0%
Long Beach St. 0.6% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 99.4 0.0%
Cal Poly 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 99.8 0.0%
Cal St. Fullerton 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 99.8 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
UC Irvine 43.1% 0.5% 42.9% 11.7% 3.1% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
UC San Diego 34.7% 0.4% 34.5% 7.9% 2.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
UC Santa Barbara 5.2% 0.0% 5.2% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Cal St. Northridge 5.3% 0.0% 5.3% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Hawaii 5.4% 0.0% 5.4% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UC Riverside 4.5% 0.0% 4.5% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UC Davis 1.3% 0.0% 1.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Cal St. Bakersfield 0.7% 0.1% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Long Beach St. 0.6% 0.2% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Cal Poly 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Cal St. Fullerton 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 98.9 1.1 0.0
1st Round 99.8% 1.0 0.2 99.2 0.6
2nd Round 21.5% 0.2 78.5 21.5 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 5.5% 0.1 94.5 5.5 0.0
Elite Eight 1.1% 0.0 99.0 1.1
Final Four 0.2% 0.0 99.8 0.2
Final Game 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0