Big West
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
56 UC Irvine 55.7%   12   3 - 0 0 - 0 25 - 6 16 - 4 +9.0      +2.2 116 +6.8 19 70.2 151 +16.3 17 0.0 1
128 UC Santa Barbara 12.8%   3 - 1 0 - 0 19 - 10 12 - 8 +2.2      +3.3 94 -1.1 204 68.0 225 +1.8 162 0.0 1
147 UC Davis 8.2%   2 - 2 0 - 0 16 - 13 11 - 9 +0.9      -2.4 244 +3.3 82 78.1 26 +6.6 85 0.0 1
149 UC San Diego 8.4%   3 - 2 0 - 0 16 - 13 11 - 9 +0.6      +1.1 143 -0.5 184 65.5 287 +1.6 166 0.0 1
174 Hawaii 5.8%   3 - 0 0 - 0 15 - 12 10 - 10 -0.8      -0.9 197 0.0 163 65.3 294 +5.7 95 0.0 1
194 Cal St. Northridge 4.4%   2 - 1 0 - 0 15 - 14 10 - 10 -1.5      -1.8 223 +0.2 156 80.0 10 +2.5 145 0.0 1
199 UC Riverside 3.5%   1 - 3 0 - 0 13 - 17 10 - 10 -2.0      -0.1 177 -1.9 234 67.4 239 +2.4 148 0.0 1
237 Cal St. Bakersfield 2.1%   2 - 1 0 - 0 13 - 17 8 - 12 -3.9      -2.2 234 -1.7 232 64.1 320 +2.1 152 0.0 1
262 Long Beach St. 0.8%   0 - 4 0 - 0 10 - 20 7 - 13 -5.3      -2.1 231 -3.3 286 62.8 334 -15.3 346 0.0 1
269 Cal Poly 0.7%   2 - 3 0 - 0 11 - 20 7 - 13 -5.6      -4.0 287 -1.6 226 81.7 8 +2.9 138 0.0 1
275 Cal St. Fullerton 0.6%   1 - 4 0 - 0 10 - 20 7 - 13 -5.7      -4.1 292 -1.6 227 66.0 278 -3.2 228 0.0 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th
UC Irvine 1.5 71.2 16.1 6.6 3.2 1.2 0.9 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.1
UC Santa Barbara 3.8 12.9 23.1 17.4 14.2 10.8 7.3 5.6 3.9 2.4 1.6 0.9
UC Davis 4.5 8.9 17.3 16.0 14.3 11.9 9.7 7.8 5.6 4.4 2.7 1.5
UC San Diego 4.6 7.6 16.4 16.4 14.6 12.3 10.3 8.1 6.1 4.3 2.6 1.3
Hawaii 5.4 5.3 11.4 12.9 12.3 12.3 11.1 10.4 8.6 6.8 5.5 3.5
Cal St. Northridge 5.8 3.7 9.1 11.7 12.1 12.1 11.3 10.3 10.2 8.4 6.0 4.9
UC Riverside 6.0 3.2 8.4 9.9 11.9 12.3 11.2 11.4 10.6 8.7 7.4 5.0
Cal St. Bakersfield 7.0 1.4 4.8 6.3 7.9 9.5 10.4 11.6 13.2 13.1 11.2 10.6
Long Beach St. 7.9 0.5 2.2 3.7 5.1 7.3 9.3 10.9 13.1 14.5 16.0 17.4
Cal Poly 8.0 0.6 1.8 3.1 5.1 6.3 8.9 11.7 12.7 14.7 17.8 17.3
Cal St. Fullerton 8.1 0.4 1.5 3.4 5.0 6.5 8.4 11.3 13.4 14.8 17.5 17.9




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
UC Irvine 16 - 4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.9 1.8 3.2 5.0 8.5 10.9 13.8 18.1 16.7 13.6 6.5
UC Santa Barbara 12 - 8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.9 1.7 3.3 4.4 7.4 8.8 11.2 12.0 12.6 11.5 9.9 7.6 4.4 2.6 0.8 0.1
UC Davis 11 - 9 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.7 3.1 5.1 6.9 8.9 11.0 12.2 11.8 10.6 9.8 7.7 4.9 3.1 1.4 0.3 0.1
UC San Diego 11 - 9 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 2.0 2.9 5.2 7.3 9.3 11.3 12.5 12.2 11.2 9.3 7.3 4.4 2.3 1.0 0.4 0.1
Hawaii 10 - 10 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.2 2.1 3.6 5.5 8.2 9.7 10.6 11.2 11.6 10.3 8.6 6.4 4.6 2.8 1.9 0.7 0.3 0.0
Cal St. Northridge 10 - 10 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.4 2.8 4.8 6.9 8.9 10.0 11.5 11.2 11.3 9.3 8.3 5.2 3.8 2.2 1.0 0.3 0.1 0.0
UC Riverside 10 - 10 0.0 0.3 0.7 1.6 3.2 5.5 7.1 9.5 10.4 11.6 12.0 10.6 9.4 7.0 5.0 3.0 1.7 0.8 0.4 0.1
Cal St. Bakersfield 8 - 12 0.1 0.8 2.0 4.0 6.4 7.6 10.4 11.9 12.2 11.3 9.9 7.5 6.0 4.3 2.9 1.5 0.9 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Long Beach St. 7 - 13 0.5 1.4 3.5 6.5 8.9 11.5 12.2 13.0 11.5 9.8 7.9 5.5 3.4 2.2 1.2 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0
Cal Poly 7 - 13 0.4 1.6 3.7 6.6 9.5 11.6 13.3 12.6 11.1 10.1 7.5 4.8 3.4 2.0 1.1 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0
Cal St. Fullerton 7 - 13 0.5 1.6 3.8 6.5 9.9 11.4 13.0 12.9 11.9 9.5 7.2 5.1 3.1 2.0 0.9 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
UC Irvine 71.2% 60.6 8.9 1.4 0.2 0.0
UC Santa Barbara 12.9% 7.9 4.0 0.8 0.1 0.0
UC Davis 8.9% 5.2 2.9 0.6 0.1 0.0
UC San Diego 7.6% 4.5 2.3 0.7 0.1 0.0
Hawaii 5.3% 3.0 1.7 0.5 0.1
Cal St. Northridge 3.7% 2.0 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.0
UC Riverside 3.2% 1.7 1.1 0.3 0.0
Cal St. Bakersfield 1.4% 0.8 0.5 0.1 0.0
Long Beach St. 0.5% 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0
Cal Poly 0.6% 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
Cal St. Fullerton 0.4% 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
UC Irvine 55.7% 52.8% 2.9% 12   0.2 0.3 0.8 1.3 1.6 1.6 1.2 1.3 2.2 3.7 14.8 21.3 4.7 0.6 0.0 44.3 6.2%
UC Santa Barbara 12.8% 12.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.7 4.2 4.4 2.4 0.8 0.1 87.2 0.0%
UC Davis 8.2% 8.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.5 2.9 3.0 1.4 0.3 0.1 91.8 0.0%
UC San Diego 8.4% 8.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.3 2.0 3.1 2.0 0.8 0.1 91.6 0.0%
Hawaii 5.8% 5.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.6 2.1 1.3 0.4 0.1 94.2 0.0%
Cal St. Northridge 4.4% 4.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.9 1.6 1.3 0.5 0.1 95.6 0.0%
UC Riverside 3.5% 3.5% 0.0% 0.1 0.6 1.1 0.9 0.7 0.2 96.5 0.0%
Cal St. Bakersfield 2.1% 2.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.1 97.9 0.0%
Long Beach St. 0.8% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.2 99.2 0.0%
Cal Poly 0.7% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 99.4 0.0%
Cal St. Fullerton 0.6% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 99.5 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
UC Irvine 55.7% 1.6% 55.0% 20.7% 7.0% 2.3% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1%
UC Santa Barbara 12.8% 0.0% 12.8% 1.9% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UC Davis 8.2% 0.1% 8.2% 1.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UC San Diego 8.4% 0.0% 8.4% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Hawaii 5.8% 0.1% 5.8% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Cal St. Northridge 4.4% 0.0% 4.3% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UC Riverside 3.5% 0.1% 3.5% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Cal St. Bakersfield 2.1% 0.1% 2.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Long Beach St. 0.8% 0.1% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Cal Poly 0.7% 0.0% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Cal St. Fullerton 0.6% 0.1% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 97.0 3.0
1st Round 99.8% 1.0 0.2 97.6 2.2
2nd Round 26.4% 0.3 73.6 26.2 0.2
Sweet Sixteen 8.1% 0.1 91.9 8.1 0.0
Elite Eight 2.3% 0.0 97.7 2.3
Final Four 0.8% 0.0 99.2 0.8
Final Game 0.3% 0.0 99.7 0.3
Champion 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1