Big West
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace Results Rating Conf Results Rating
118 Hawaii 34.0%   14   19 - 7 13 - 5 +3.0      -1.7 215 +4.7 55 72.6 71 +3.7 113 +4.1 1
123 UC Irvine 30.7%   18 - 10 13 - 5 +2.8      -4.5 291 +7.3 29 70.7 117 +2.3 125 +3.9 2
133 UC San Diego 11.4%   19 - 9 11 - 7 +1.9      -1.3 199 +3.2 84 68.1 188 +2.8 122 -0.1 4
142 UC Santa Barbara 9.5%   16 - 12 11 - 8 +1.1      +2.7 102 -1.6 220 62.9 327 -0.1 157 -0.3 5
168 Cal St. Northridge 7.7%   16 - 12 11 - 7 -0.6      -0.8 184 +0.2 163 81.1 3 +0.7 148 +1.3 3
175 UC Davis 3.3%   15 - 12 10 - 8 -1.0      -0.7 180 -0.4 188 70.2 130 0.0 156 -1.0 7
203 Cal St. Fullerton 2.4%   13 - 15 10 - 8 -2.3      -0.4 173 -1.9 226 79.1 7 -1.2 176 -0.8 6
226 Cal Poly 1.1%   11 - 17 9 - 9 -3.7      -0.7 182 -3.0 264 82.9 1 -2.9 214 -1.6 8
268 Long Beach St. 0.0%   7 - 21 5 - 13 -6.0      -3.1 255 -2.8 258 70.0 132 -7.7 292 -7.8 9
276 UC Riverside 0.0%   8 - 21 5 - 14 -6.3      -4.9 303 -1.4 217 70.0 133 -7.3 284 -8.3 10
329 Cal St. Bakersfield 0.0%   6 - 22 2 - 16 -11.2      -5.5 312 -5.7 324 73.3 56 -10.3 324 -13.3 11


Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Interest
Thu, Mar 5 203 Cal St. Fullerton 77 133 UC San Diego 78 55%   
Thu, Mar 5 226 Cal Poly 73 123 UC Irvine 82 82%   
Thu, Mar 5 268 Long Beach St. 75 175 UC Davis 77 57%   
Thu, Mar 5 329 Cal St. Bakersfield 79 168 Cal St. Northridge 87 77%   
Fri, Mar 6 118 Hawaii 78 276 UC Riverside 66 87%   
Sat, Mar 7 133 UC San Diego 70 142 UC Santa Barbara 72 59%   
Sat, Mar 7 175 UC Davis 67 123 UC Irvine 74 74%   
Sat, Mar 7 168 Cal St. Northridge 89 203 Cal St. Fullerton 85 68%   
Sat, Mar 7 329 Cal St. Bakersfield 80 226 Cal Poly 91 84%   
Sun, Mar 8 118 Hawaii 80 268 Long Beach St. 68 87%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Season

Projected Place
Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th
Hawaii 1.1 85.3 14.7
UC Irvine 1.3 68.7 31.3
Cal St. Northridge 3.2 0.0 3.7 79.5 10.5 5.4 0.9
UC San Diego 3.9 0.0 1.7 45.3 26.0 17.3 8.7 1.1
UC Santa Barbara 4.2 28.0 32.4 29.5 9.4 0.8
UC Davis 5.6 5.7 8.9 31.7 31.1 19.5 3.2
Cal St. Fullerton 5.5 15.1 1.7 32.5 21.9 24.7 4.1
Cal Poly 7.1 0.3 7.5 15.0 34.4 42.8
Long Beach St. 9.1 94.3 5.7
UC Riverside 9.5 54.5 45.5
Cal St. Bakersfield 11.0 100.0

Projected Wins
Team Exp Conf Record Exp Overall Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
Hawaii 15 - 5 21 - 7 1.8 21.9 76.3
UC Irvine 15 - 5 20 - 10 5.1 34.6 60.3
Cal St. Northridge 12 - 8 17 - 13 7.9 39.6 52.5
UC San Diego 12 - 8 20 - 10 27.0 49.9 23.1
UC Santa Barbara 12 - 8 17 - 12 41.3 58.7
UC Davis 11 - 9 16 - 13 32.8 51.8 15.4
Cal St. Fullerton 11 - 9 14 - 16 37.7 47.2 15.1
Cal Poly 10 - 10 12 - 18 13.7 70.7 15.6
Long Beach St. 6 - 14 8 - 22 48.9 45.0 6.1
UC Riverside 5 - 15 8 - 22 87.9 12.1
Cal St. Bakersfield 2 - 18 6 - 24 64.5 31.4 4.2

Projected Regular Season Champion
Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Hawaii 85.3% 31.3 54.0 0.0 0.0
UC Irvine 68.7% 14.7 54.0 0.0 0.0
Cal St. Northridge 0.0% 0.0 0.0
UC San Diego 0.0% 0.0 0.0
UC Santa Barbara
UC Davis
Cal St. Fullerton
Cal Poly
Long Beach St.
UC Riverside
Cal St. Bakersfield


NCAA Tournament Selection and Simulation

Tournament Selection
TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Hawaii 34.0% 34.0% 0.0% 14   0.1 7.6 19.8 6.5 0.1 66.0 0.0%
UC Irvine 30.7% 30.7% 0.0% 0.0 4.6 17.9 7.8 0.3 69.4 0.0%
UC San Diego 11.4% 11.4% 0.0% 0.0 2.1 6.1 3.1 0.1 88.6 0.0%
UC Santa Barbara 9.5% 9.5% 0.0% 0.6 4.2 4.2 0.4 0.0 90.5 0.0%
Cal St. Northridge 7.7% 7.7% 0.0% 0.1 2.2 4.1 1.3 0.0 92.3 0.0%
UC Davis 3.3% 3.3% 0.0% 0.1 1.3 1.5 0.4 0.1 96.7 0.0%
Cal St. Fullerton 2.4% 2.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.5 1.3 0.6 97.6 0.0%
Cal Poly 1.1% 1.1% 0.0% 0.1 1.0 98.9 0.0%
Long Beach St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
UC Riverside 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Cal St. Bakersfield 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%

Conference Totals
Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0
1st Round 99.6% 1.0 0.4 99.6
2nd Round 5.3% 0.1 94.7 5.3
Sweet Sixteen 0.5% 0.0 99.5 0.5
Elite Eight 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0

Tournament Simulation
TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Hawaii 34.0% 0.0% 34.0% 2.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UC Irvine 30.7% 0.0% 30.7% 1.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UC San Diego 11.4% 0.0% 11.4% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UC Santa Barbara 9.5% 0.0% 9.5% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Cal St. Northridge 7.7% 0.0% 7.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UC Davis 3.3% 0.0% 3.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Cal St. Fullerton 2.4% 0.3% 2.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Cal Poly 1.1% 0.7% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Long Beach St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UC Riverside 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Cal St. Bakersfield 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%